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Randy McKinley

Publications and source records attributed to Randy McKinley.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2021

Contrasting geographic patterns of ignition probability and burn severity in the Mojave Desert

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires > 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (<1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2016

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Mojave Desert↗
USGS2015

Relations between soil hydraulic properties and burn severity

Wildfire can affect soil hydraulic properties, often resulting in reduced infiltration. The magnitude of change in infiltration varies depending on the burn severity. Quantitative approaches to link burn severity with changes in infiltration are lacking. This study uses controlled laboratory measurements to determine relations between a remotely sensed burn severity metric ( dNBR , change in normalised burn ratio) and soil hydraulic properties (SHPs). SHPs were measured on soil cores collected from an area burned by the 2013 Black Forest fire in Colorado, USA. Six sites with the same soil type were selected across a range of burn severities, and 10 random soil cores were collected from each site within a 30-m diameter circle. Cumulative infiltration measurements were made in the laboratory using a tension infiltrometer to determine field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, K fs , and sorptivity, S . These measurements were correlated with dNBR for values ranging from 124 (low severity) to 886 (high severity). SHPs were related to dNBR by inverse functions for specific conditions of water repellency (at the time of sampling) and soil texture. Both functions had a threshold value for dNBR between 124 and 420, where K fs and S were unchanged and equal to values for soil unaffected by fire. For dNBR s >~420, the K fs was an exponentially decreasing function of dNBR and S was a linearly decreasing function of dNBR . These initial quantitative empirical relations provide a first step to link SHPs to burn severity, and can be used in quantitative infiltration models to predict post-wildfire infiltration and resulting runoff.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2013

Fire history, effects and management in southern Nevada

Fire can be both an ecosystem stressor (Chapter 2) and a critical ecosystem process, depending on when, where, and under what conditions it occurs on the southern Nevada landscape. Fire can also pose hazards to human life and property, particularly in the wildland/urban interface (WUI). The challenge faced by land managers is to prevent fires from occurring where they are likely to threaten ecosystem integrity or human developments, while allowing fires to occur where they will provide ecosystem benefits. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP) Science and Research Strategy summarizes this desired outcome with Sub-goal 1.1, which is to manage wildland fire to sustain Southern Nevada’s ecosystems (table 1.3; Chapter 1). This chapter provides information that will help land managers develop strategies to achieve this goal. It begins with a background section on fire history, spatial and temporal patterns of fire, and fire effects for the major ecosystem types of southern Nevada, (table 1.1; Chapter 1). Potential fire management actions are then discussed, the overall implications of the information to fire management are summarized, and the major knowledge gaps are described.

Nevada↗
USGS2012

Burn severity mapping in Australia 2009

In 2009, the Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment estimated approximately 430,000 hectares of Victoria Australia were burned by numerous bushfires. Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams from the United States were deployed to Victoria to assist local fire managers. The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center (USGS/EROS) and U.S. Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (USFS/RSAC) aided the support effort by providing satellite-derived "soil burn severity " maps for over 280,000 burned hectares. In the United States, BAER teams are assembled to make rapid assessments of burned lands to identify potential hazards to public health and property. An early step in the assessment process is the creation of a soil burn severity map used to identify hazard areas and prioritize treatment locations. These maps are developed primarily using Landsat satellite imagery and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Remote sensing and geospatial support to burned area emergency response teams

A major concern of land managers in the United States is the response of watersheds to weather after a wildfire. With an ever-expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI), land managers must be cognizant of potential damage to private property and other values at risk. In the United States, land-management agencies from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) deploy Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams to address these concerns and to “prescribe and implement emergency treatments to minimize threats to life or property or to stabilize and prevent unacceptable degradation to natural and cultural resources resulting from the effects of a fire” (USDA Forest Service 2004, p. 17). BAER teams’ objective is emergency stabilization of burned areas, rather than long-term restoration of the landscape after a fire.

Fire Management Today↗