Geology topics

R. Weldon

Publications and source records attributed to R. Weldon.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

San Andreas fault earthquake chronology and Lake Cahuilla history at Coachella, California

The southernmost ~100 km of the San Andreas fault has not ruptured historically. It is imperative to determine its rupture history to better predict its future behavior. This paleoseismic investigation in Coachella, California, establishes a chronology of at least five and up to seven major earthquakes during the past ~1100 yr. This chronology yields a range of average recurrence intervals between 116 and 221 yr, depending on assumptions, with a best-estimate average recurrence interval of 180 yr. The most recent earthquake occurred c.1690, more than 300 yr ago, suggesting that this stretch of the fault has accumulated a large amount of tectonic stress and is likely to rupture in the near future, assuming the fault follows a stress renewal model. This study also establishes the timing of the past 5-6 highstands of ancient Lake Cahuilla since A.D. 800.We found that earthquakes do not tend to occur at any particular stage in the lake cycle.

California↗

USGS2010

A kinematic model of southern California

We propose a kinematic model for southern California based on late Quaternary slip rates and orientations of major faults in the region. Internally consistent motions are determined assuming that these faults bound rigid blocks. Relative to North America, most of California west of the San Andreas fault is moving parallel to the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges and not parallel to the motion of the Pacific plate. This is accomplished by counterclockwise rotation of California south of the San Andreas fault and by the westward movement of central California north of the Gar lock fault. The velocities of the blocks are calculated along several paths in southern California that begin in the Mojave Desert and end off the California coast. A path that crosses the western Transverse Ranges accumulates the accepted relative North America-Pacific plate velocity, whereas paths to the north and south result in a significant missing component of motion. This implies the existence of a zone of active deformation in southern California that is interpreted to include the western Transverse Ranges and northwest trending, predominately strike-slip faults close to the coast both north and south of the Transverse Ranges. Strain on this system accounts for about a third of the total North America-Pacific plate motion.

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USGS2004

Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work

The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood typifies the entire southern San Andreas fault; more long event series will be required to definitively outline prehistoric rupture extents.

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