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R. Robinson

Publications and source records attributed to R. Robinson.

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The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake: 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake ( M W 6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed, the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, M 0 =1.3 × 10 19 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221°, 47°, 112°, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1–10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ∼15 km to the south, appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE. Most of the M L ≥ 5 aftershocks, including the two largest ( M L 6.1 and M L 5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates.

Arthur's Pass

Search for seismic forerunners to earthquakes in central California

The relatively high seismicity of the San Andreas fault zone in central California provides an excellent opportunity to search for seismic forerunners to moderate earthquakes. Analysis of seismic traveltime and earthquake location data has resulted in the identification of two possible seismic forerunners. The first is a period of apparently late (0.3 sec) P-wave arrival times lasting several weeks preceding one earthquake of magnitude 5.0. The rays for these travel paths passed through — or very close to — the aftershock volume of the subsequent earthquake. The sources for these P-arrival time data were earthquakes in the distance range 20–70 km. Uncertainties in the influence of small changes in the hypocenters of the source earthquakes and in the identification of small P-arrivals raise the possibility that the apparantly delayed arrivals are not the result of a decrease in P-velocity. The second possible precursor is an apparent increase in the average depth of earthquakes preceding two moderate earthquakes. This change might be only apparent, caused by a location bias introduced by a decrease in P-wave velocity, but numerical modeling for realistic possible changes in velocity suggests that the observed effect is more likely a true migration of earthquakes. To carry out this work — involving the manipulation of several thousand earthquake hypocenters and several hundred thousand readings of arrival time — a system of data storage was designed and manipulation programs for a large digital computer have been executed. This system allows, for example, the automatic selection of earthquakes from a specific region, the extraction of all the observed arrival times for these events, and their relocation under a chosen set of assumptions.

California

Variation of P-wave velocity before the Bear Valley, California, earthquake of 24 February 1972

Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system.

California

Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)

Composition and evolution of the continental crust as suggested by seismic observations

The average composition of the continental crust is more mafic than hitherto supposed. The conterminous United States can be divided, on the basis of seismic structure, into ten regions. The seven western and the three eastern regions can be termed western and eastern superprovinces. Seismic studies show that the crust is thinner and more silicic in tectonically active regions (western superprovince — average crustal thickness 34 km), than in stable regions (eastern superprovince — average crustal thickness 44 km). Mafic rocks are estimated to average 55% of the continental crust: 45% in the western and 59% in the eastern superprovince. These results express quantitatively the ideas expressed qualitatively by Pakiser and Zietz (1965). The computations of percentages of major oxides in the crust associate seismic velocities with rock compositions.

Tectonophysics