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R. A. Crovelli

Publications and source records attributed to R. A. Crovelli.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1995

The generalized 20/80 law using probabilistic fractals applied to petroleum field size

Fractal properties of the Pareto probability distribution are used to generalize "the 20/80 law." The 20/80 law is a heuristic law that has evolved over the years into the following rule of thumb for many populations: 20 percent of the population accounts for 80 percent of the total value. The general p100/q100 law in probabilistic form is defined with q as a function of p, where p is the population proportion and q is the proportion of total value. Using the Pareto distribution, the p100/q100 law in fractal form is derived with the parameter q being a fractal, where q unexpectedly possesses the scale invariance property. The 20/80 law is a special case of the p100/q100 law in fractal form. The p100/q100 law in fractal form is applied to petroleum fieldsize data to obtain p and q such that p100% of the oil fields greater than any specified scale or size in a geologic play account for q100% of the total oil of the fields. The theoretical percentages of total resources of oil using the fractal q are extremely close to the empirical percentages from the data using the statistic q. Also, the empirical scale invariance property of the statistic q for the petroleum fieldsize data is in excellent agreement with the theoretical scale invariance property of the fractal q. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗
USGS1995

Environmental probabilistic quantitative assessment methodologies

In this paper, four petroleum resource assessment methodologies are presented as possible pollution assessment methodologies, even though petroleum as a resource is desirable, whereas pollution is undesirable. A methodology is defined in this paper to consist of a probability model and a probabilistic method, where the method is used to solve the model. The following four basic types of probability models are considered: 1) direct assessment, 2) accumulation size, 3) volumetric yield, and 4) reservoir engineering. Three of the four petroleum resource assessment methodologies were written as microcomputer systems, viz. TRIAGG for direct assessment, APRAS for accumulation size, and FASPU for reservoir engineering. A fourth microcomputer system termed PROBDIST supports the three assessment systems. The three assessment systems have different probability models but the same type of probabilistic method. The type of advantages of the analytic method are in computational speed and flexibility, making it ideal for a microcomputer. -from Author

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS1993

An objective replacement method for censored geochemical data

Geochemical data are commonly censored, that is, concentrations for some samples are reported as "less than" or "greater than" some value. Censored data hampers statistical analysis because certain computational techniques used in statistical analysis require a complete set of uncensored data. We show that the simple substitution method for creating an uncensored dataset, e.g., replacement by 3/4 times the detection limit, has serious flaws, and we present an objective method to determine the replacement value. Our basic premise is that the replacement value should equal the mean of the actual values represented by the qualified data. We adapt the maximum likelihood approach (Cohen, 1961) to estimate this mean. This method reproduces the mean and skewness as well or better than a simple substitution method using 3/4 of the lower detection limit or 3/4 of the upper detection limit. For a small proportion of "less than" substitutions, a simple-substitution replacement factor of 0.55 is preferable to 3/4; for a small proportion of "greater than" substitutions, a simple-substitution replacement factor of 1.7 is preferable to 4/3, provided the resulting replacement value does not exceed 100%. For more than 10% replacement, a mean empirical factor may be used. However, empirically determined simple-substitution replacement factors usually vary among different data sets and are less reliable with more replacements. Therefore, a maximum likelihood method is superior in general. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that true replacement factors for "less thans" decrease in magnitude with more replacements and larger standard deviation; those for "greater thans" increase in magnitude with more replacements and larger standard deviation. In contrast to any simple substitution method, the maximum likelihood method reproduces these variations. Using the maximum likelihood method for replacing "less thans" in our sample data set, correlation coefficients were reasonably accurately estimated in 90% of the cases for as much as 40% replacement and in 60% of the cases for 80% replacement. These results suggest that censored data can be utilized more than is commonly realized. ?? 1993 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS1992

Probabilistic methodology for estimation of undiscovered petroleum resources in play analysis of the United States

A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained. The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗
USGS1991

A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

Computers & Geosciences↗