Geology topics

Philip C. Rosen

Publications and source records attributed to Philip C. Rosen.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Non-native Pond Sliders cause long-term decline of native Sonora Mud Turtles: A 33-year before-after study in an undisturbed natural environment

Using a before-after study design in a stable, largely undisturbed pond habitat and a dataset spanning 33 years, we document and describe the decline of native Sonora mud turtles (Kinosternon sonoriense) after the introduction of non-native pond sliders (Trachemys scripta). The Sonora mud turtle population in Montezuma Well in central Arizona, USA, declined to less than 25% of previous numbers, from 372 ± 64 in 1983 to 80 ± 21 in 2011. We trapped and removed the non-native turtles between 2007 and 2012 and after removal of the non-natives, the Sonora mud turtle population increased to 139 ± 34 in 2015. The native turtles also significantly increased basking activity after removal of the non-natives, paralleling results of small-scale mesocosm studies showing that pond sliders negatively affect basking rates of native turtle species. Reproductive rates of female Sonora mud turtles (numbers of females with eggs) were lower during the period of peak non-native turtle abundance, and increased after removal of the non-native turtles. We hypothesize that the reduction in effective reproductive rate links interference competition (reflected in reduced basking rates) to the long-term decline of the native mud turtles. Results from the undisturbed natural system of Montezuma Well provide new insights on the overall occurrence, magnitude, and mechanisms of negative effects of introduced pond sliders on native turtle species. Sonora mud turtles are very different in their morphology, behavior, and ecology from pond sliders and from native turtles in other studies, suggesting that impacts of non-native pond sliders are more pervasive than previously thought.

Aquatic Invasions↗

USGS2017

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of Mexican endemic reptiles

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins due to extinction. Climate models predict dramatic extinctions and distributional shifts in the next century, but there are few ground-truths of these dire forecasts leading to uncertainty in predicting extinctions due to climate change. Previously, we reported on recent extinctions of Mexican Sceloporus lizards by comparing recent surveys to historical distributional records for 48 species at 200 sites. We also ground-truthed extinctions on five continents across 8 lizard families by comparing observed and predicted extinctions from an eco-physiological species distribution model and obtained a high R 2 of 0.72 (1, 2). Here, we derive more detailed predictions for 15 terrestrial reptile families and 142 species for the Mexican and California Biogeographic provinces using all known museum occurrence records, and detailed measures on eco-physiology. We adopt the eco-physiological model of extinction developed earlier but use a species-specific model. We predict massive and rapid extinctions of 22% of the reptile populations in Mexico within the next 50 years. We also predict that 3 of 15 reptile families, all three endemic to the Mexican and Californian biogeographic provinces, will go extinct by 2070, the hallmark of the beginnings of a mass extinction event. However, extinctions may be attenuated by forest cover and by presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. We describe impacts of altitude on three species (Gopherus morafkai, G. evgoodei, and Gambelia sila) to illustrate regional management strategies (AZ-Mexico, Sinoloa, CA) for reserves in tandem with global strategies of CO2 limits that might limit climate impacts. By carefully selecting new montane preserves adjacent to desert and tropical forest habitats, and by implementing global controls on atmospheric CO2 emissions, extinctions may be reduced to less than 11% of species and only a single reptile family.

Report↗

USGS2015

Shaping species with ephemeral boundaries: The distribution and genetic structure of desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) in the Sonoran Desert region

Aim We examine the role biogeographical features played in the evolution of Morafka's desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) and test the hypothesis that G. morafkai maintains genetically distinct lineages associated with different Sonoran Desert biomes. Increased knowledge of the past and present distribution of the Sonoran Desert region's biota provides insight into the forces that drive and maintain its biodiversity. Location Sonoran Desert biogeographical region; Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico and Arizona, USA. Methods We examined wild tortoises from Mexico ( n = 155) and Arizona ( n = 78), spanning their known distribution. We used mtDNA sequences to reconstruct matrilineal relationships and 25 microsatellite (STR) loci for Bayesian analyses of gene flow. We performed clinal analyses on both mtDNA and STR loci to determine the position and amount of introgression where lineages co-occur. We used GIS to assess the association of genetic structuring with ecological features. We used these data in a hypothesis-driven approach to assess different models of how genetic diversity is maintained and distributed in G. morafkai . Results Gopherus morafkai was found to comprise genetically and geographically distinct ‘Sonoran’ and ‘Sinaloan’ lineages. Both lineages occurred in a relatively narrow zone of overlap in Sinaloan thornscrub, where it transitions into Sonoran desertscrub. Limited introgression occurred at the contact zone. The best-fit model suggests that these lineages diverged in parapatry where the distribution of genotypes is environment-dependent and introgression is inhibited by exogenous selection. Main conclusions The historically shifting ecotone between tropical deciduous forest and Sonoran desertscrub appears to be a boundary that fostered divergence between parapatric lineages of tortoises. The sharp genetic cline between the two lineages suggests that periods of isolation in temporary refugia due to Pleistocene climatic cycling influenced divergence. Despite incomplete reproductive isolation, the Sonoran and Sinaloan lineages of G. morafkai are on separate evolutionary trajectories.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2013

Biogeographic perspective of speciation among desert tortoises in the genus Gopherus : a preliminary evaluation

The enduring processes of time, climate, and adaptation have sculpted the distribution of organisms we observe in the Sonoran Desert. One such organism is Morafka’s desert tortoise, Gopherus morafkai. We apply a genomic approach to identify the evolutionary processes driving diversity in this species and present preliminary findings and emerging hypotheses. The Sonoran Desert form of the tortoise exhibits a continuum of genetic similarity spanning 850 km of Sonoran desertscrub extending from Empalme, Sonora, to Kingman, Arizona. However, at the ecotone between desertscrub and foothills thornscrub we identify a distinct, Sinaloan lineage and this occurrence suggests a more complex evolutionary history for G. morafkai. By using multiple loci from throughout the tortoise’s genome, we aim to determine if divergence between these lineages occurred in allopatry, and further to investigate for signatures of past or current genetic introgression. This international, collaborative project will assist state and federal agencies in developing management strategies that best preserve the evolutionary potential of Morafka’s desert tortoise. Ultimately, an understanding of the evolutionary history of desert tortoises will not only clarify the forces that have driven the divergence in this group, but also contribute to our knowledge of the biogeographic history of the Southwestern deserts and how diversity is maintained within them.

Proceedings↗

USGS2010

Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake ( Crotalus atrox )

Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake ( Crotalus atrox ). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

Arizona↗

USGS1995

Bullfrogs: Introduced predators in southwestern wetlands

In the American Southwest, much of the native fish fauna is facing extinction (Minckley and Deacon 1991); frogs in California (Fellers and Drost 1993) and frogs and garter snakes in Arizona (Schwalbe and Rosen 1988) are also in critical decline. Habitat destruction and introduced predators appear to be primary causes of native frog declines (Jennings and Hayes 1994), and habitat modification often yields ponds and lakes especially suitable for introduced species. Introduced bullfrogs ( Rana catesbeiana ) have been blamed for amphibian declines in much of western North America (e.g., Hayes and Jennings 1986; Leonard et al. 1993; Vial and Saylor 1993). Extensive cannibalism by bullfrogs renders them especially potent predators at the population level. The tadpoles require only perennial water and grazeable plant material; hence, transforming young can sustain a dense adult bullfrog population even if alternate prey are depleted. This may increase the probability that native species may be extirpated by bullfrog predation. Introduced predatory fishes are apparently an important cause of frog declines (Hayes and Jennings 1986). They have been strongly implicated in one important case of decline of native ranid frog (family Ranidae, the "true" frogs; Bradford 1989). Some introduced crayfish may also be devastating in some areas (Jennings and Hayes 1994). In our study region, however, neither introduced fishes nor crayfish are dominant. We present results that sustain a "bullfrog hypothesis" for some native ranid declines, and we present our study as an example of how evidence accumulates to support such a hypothesis. In 1985 we began documenting historical localities for wetland herpetofaunas (reptiles and amphibians), based on museum records and personal interviews, then revisited these and additional areas to determine current species' status. Results of this process, plus circumstantial evidence, suggested that the bullfrog was a primary cause for declines of leopard frogs and garter snakes in southern Arizona (Schwalbe and Rosen 1988). In 1986-89 and 1992-93 we conducted removal censuses of bullfrogs at San Bernardino National Wildlife Refuge (SBNWR), Cochise County, Arizona. We simultaneously monitored native Chiricahua leopard frogs ( R. chiricahuensis ) and Mexican garter snakes ( Thamnophis eques ) at the sites of bullfrog removal. A control site, with no bullfrog removal, was established in comparable habitat at Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Pima County, Arizona.

Book chapter↗