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Peter S. Coates

Publications and source records attributed to Peter S. Coates.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Wildfire immediately reduces nest and adult survival of greater sage-grouse

Wildfire events are becoming more frequent and severe on a global scale. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and the presence of pyrophytic invasive grasses are contributing to the degradation of native vegetation communities. Within the Great Basin region of the western U.S., increasing wildfire frequency is transforming the ecosystem toward a higher degree of homogeneity, one dominated by invasive annual grasses and declining landscape productivity. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are a species of conservation concern that rely on large tracts of structurally and functionally diverse sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) communities. Using a 12-year (2008–2019) telemetry dataset, we documented immediate impacts of wildfire on demographic rates of a population of sage-grouse that were exposed to two large wildfire events (Virginia Mountains Fire Complex—2016; Long Valley Fire—2017) near the border of California and Nevada. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in demographic rates were accounted for using a Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) study design. Results revealed a 40% reduction in adult survival and a 79% reduction in nest survival within areas impacted by wildfires. Our results indicate that wildfire has strong and immediate impacts to two key life stages of a sagebrush indicator species and underscores the importance of fire suppression and immediate restoration following wildfire events.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2023

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2022

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporated population lek count data through 2022. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.7). Cumulative declines were 40.9, 65.0, and 79.6 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that the most recent nadir for range-wide populations occurred during 2021. However, growth during 2022 was modest, making 2021 a tentative final nadir at this point.

Data Report↗
USGS2023

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

Influence of fine-scale habitat characteristics on sage-grouse nest site selection and nest survival varies by mesic and xeric site conditions

Resource managers and scientists across western U.S. agencies seek methodologies for identifying environmental attributes important to both wildlife conservation and broad-scale land stewardship. The Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) exemplifies a species in need of this broad-scale approach given widespread population declines that have resulted from loss and degradation of habitat from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. These include agricultural land conversion, conifer expansion, energy development, and wildfire coupled with ecological conversion by invasive plants such as cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ). Development of habitat assessments and conservation actions for sage-grouse benefit from studies that link demographic responses to habitat selection patterns. To address this, we examined nest survival of sage-grouse in relation to fine-scale habitat patterns (i.e., field-based habitat measurements) that influenced nest site selection, using data from nests of telemetered females at 17 sites over 6 years in Nevada and northeastern California, USA. Importantly, sites spanned mesic and xeric average precipitation conditions that contributed substantially to vegetation community structure across cold desert ecosystems of the North American Great Basin. Vegetative cover immediately surrounding sage-grouse nests was important for both nest site selection and nest survival, but responses varied between mesic and xeric sites. For example, while taller perennial grasses were selected at xeric sites, we found no evidence of selection for perennial grass at mesic sites, indicating a functional response to availability of habitat features between hydrographic regions. Furthermore, perennial grass height and forb height both had positive effects on nest survival at xeric sites, but we found varying effects at mesic sites. We emphasize that precipitation conditions driving ecosystem productivity vary regionally among sagebrush communities, shaping vegetation structure and suitable habitat conditions for nesting sage-grouse.

Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2023

Geothermal energy production adversely affects a sensitive indicator species within sagebrush ecosystems in western North America

Growing demand for renewable energy has resulted in expansion of energy infrastructure across sagebrush ecosystems of western North America. Geothermal power is an increasingly popular renewable energy source, especially within remote areas, but little is known about the impacts it may have on local wildlife populations. Investigations are warranted given similarities to more conventional surface disturbance activities with well-documented impacts. Using a novel 2-pronged analytical approach, we estimated effects of geothermal energy production activities (hereafter, geothermal) on populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), a species of high conservation concern. First, we applied a before-after-control-impact paired series design at two geothermal sites in Nevada, USA, to estimate absence rates of male sage-grouse from lek sites (breeding grounds) and changes in predicted apparent abundance ( λ ̂ "> �̂ ) in relation to geothermal energy infrastructure. We then estimated effects of geothermal energy infrastructure and other environmental covariates on demographic rates. We found λ ̂ "> �̂ declined ∼24 % within 5 km of geothermal sites, while lek absence rates (e.g., indicating local extirpation) increased by ∼730 % within 2 km. Our demographic models revealed decreased nest survival in association with proximity to geothermal infrastructure, reduced topographic impedance surface (TIS; a proxy for sound and light dispersion emanating from geothermal infrastructure), and increased density of common ravens ( Corvus corax ), an effective nest predator. Models also estimated decreases in adult survival in relation to TIS. Finally, we applied population matrix models within a quantitative decision support framework to help guide locations for future geothermal development that balance the need for domestic energy production while minimizing adverse effects on wildlife populations.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2023

A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species

A fundamental goal of population ecologists is to identify drivers responsible for temporal variation in abundance. Understanding whether variation is associated with environmental stochasticity or anthropogenic disturbances, which are more amenable to management action, is crucial yet difficult to achieve. Here, we present a hierarchical monitoring framework that models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. Importantly, the framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (e.g., periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). We demonstrate utility through application to a rapidly declining sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) indicator species (greater sage-grouse; Centrocercus urophasianus ) using 30 years (1990–2019) of count data collected from greater than 4,400 leks (habitual breeding sites) distributed across the western United States. Results revealed population declines, immediately preceding triggers (2–4-year period), ranging between 58 and 68%. Conversely, population trends unassociated with triggers showed little-to-no sign of decline. Retrospective application of the monitoring framework indicated an average annual rate of 1.7% of leks or 1.3% of neighborhood clusters (lek aggregations) would have required management intervention to reverse range-wide declines and stabilize the U.S. population as a whole.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2023

Using state-and-transition simulation models to scope post-fire success in restoring greater sage-grouse habitat

Wildfires are increasingly modifying wildlife habitat in the western United States and managers need ways to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. We developed a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) to project post-fire revegetation and the potential for sage-grouse habitat restoration in sagebrush ecosystems. The model included annual fires, annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, and projected annual vegetation growth caused by natural regeneration as well as sagebrush seeding and planting. We cross-referenced resulting vegetation maps with greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat needs and evaluated trajectories of potential habitat at three Priority Areas for Conservation in the Great Basin. We compared outcomes among different types of revegetation actions (natural regeneration, seeding, planting), treatment durations, and treatment area sizes. In all scenarios, sagebrush cover was generally insufficient to meet sage-grouse needs for at least a decade post-fire, and the best habitat classes declined or remained at low proportions of landscapes for >50 years post-fire. Under current fire patterns, the pace of habitat restoration is likely to lag behind losses from wildfires. Our results indicate additional efforts beyond sagebrush revegetation actions (e.g., fire suppression, invasive grass treatment) will likely be necessary to maintain and restore areas to meet sage-grouse habitat needs in burned landscapes. Our results also underscore the need for broad-scale habitat restoration strategies that expand the ability to reestablish sagebrush in large, burned areas, as well as strategies for defining which areas should be prioritized for revegetation within the biome. Our landscape models and resulting vegetation maps can be integrated with other restoration prioritization or wildlife monitoring tools that support land manager decision-making. By gauging potential benefits of restoration decisions, our approach can provide information to aid choices on where to invest time, money, and effort and how best to mitigate losses and plan long-term restoration and recovery for landscapes across the sagebrush biome.

Great Basin↗
USGS2023

A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range

Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a rapidly declining species that spans 11 U.S. states and responds to habitat conditions across a wide range of spatial scales and regions. Allowing for regional variance in species-habitat associations and suitability predictions could systematically identify important habitats at levels relevant to management. We collaboratively developed a model with Bureau of Land Management (BLM) biologists that: (1) evaluated the scale of effect for different environmental covariates; (2) accounted for regional differences in population-level responses; and (3) predicted probabilities of persistence across the U.S. occupied range. We modeled range-wide lek persistence data (6615 communal breeding sites classified as active or inactive) as a function of environmental covariates. Environmental covariates included sagebrush cover, pinyon-juniper cover, topography, precipitation, point and line disturbance densities, and landscape configuration metrics. Our model treated habitat assessment areas – regionally delineated by BLM biologists – as random intercepts and slopes that allowed for geographic variation in species-habitat associations and predicted probabilities of lek persistence. Our final model indicated support for 12 environmental covariates predicting lek persistence at scales extending between 1- to 15-km radii from lek centers, and a covariate measuring distance to the occupied range boundary. Five of these covariates showed significant regionally varying responses: sagebrush clumpiness (a measure of habitat aggregation), pinyon-juniper cover, point disturbance of anthropogenic features such as energy infrastructure and communication towers, elevation, and a topographic index associated with mesic habitats. This spatial nonstationarity indicates unitary range-wide recommendations, or rules-of-thumb with respect to their effects on lek persistence, may be problematic for these environmental conditions. For covariates that did not include random slopes, and which were potentially amenable to management actions, we found that leks were predicted to become extirpated when sagebrush cover fell below 9.6 % (summarized at the 3.2-km radius extent), and the proportion of classified sagebrush habitat fell below 0.7 (1-km). We produced a continuous predictive probability surface of lek persistence which we binned based on model sensitivity thresholds to produce habitat quality categories. The highest quality habitat (capturing 50 % of active leks) covered 25.5 % of the occupied range, while the combined lowest through highest quality habitats (capturing 95 % of active leks) covered 65.0 %. Accommodating regional environmental differences in models that are relevant to habitat management planning will help ensure their applicability to targeted goals. Continuous collaboration between modelers and land managers early in the modeling process increases the likelihood of this outcome.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2023

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities’ innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2023

A Bayesian multi-stage modelling framework to evaluate impacts of energy development on wildlife populations: An application to Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

Increased demand for domestic production of renewable energy has led to expansion of energy infrastructure across western North America. Much of the western U.S. comprises remote landscapes that are home to a variety of vegetation communities and wildlife species, including the imperiled sagebrush ecosystem and indicator species such as greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). Geothermal sources in particular have potential for continued development across the western U.S. but impacts to greater sage-grouse and other species are unknown. To address this information gap, we describe a novel two-pronged methodology that analyzes impacts of geothermal energy production on pattern and process of greater sage-grouse populations using (a) before-after control-impact (BACI) measures of population growth and lek absence rates and (b) concurrent-to-operation evaluations of demographic rates. Growth and absence rate analyses utilized 14 years of lek survey data collected prior (2005–2011) and concurrent (2012–2018) to geothermal operations at two sites in Nevada, USA. Demographic analyses utilized relocation data, restricted inference to concurrent years, and incorporated 17 additional control sites. Demographic results were applied to >100 potential geothermal sites distributed across the study region to generate spatially explicit predictions of unrealized population-level impacts.

MethodsX↗
USGS2022

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2021

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021) and includes the addition of three analytical updates: (1) identification of population nadirs (lowest points within cycles) at the lek (breeding ground) and neighborhood cluster (group of leks) spatial scales, (2) truncation of prior distributions on rate of change in apparent abundance values to more realistic boundaries for leks with missing data, and (3) addition of 2 years of population lek count data (2020 and 2021) to the current dataset (1953–2021). Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.6). Cumulative declines were 42.5, 65.6, and 80.1 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that range-wide populations continued to decline during 2020 and 2021, although two climate clusters (eastern area and Bi-State area) have shown growth in population abundance in recent years, indicating they have surpassed a recent population abundance nadir.

Data Report↗
USGS2022

Moisture abundance and proximity mediate seasonal use of mesic areas and survival of greater sage-grouse broods

Water is a critical and limited resource, particularly in the arid West, but water availability is projected to decline even while demand increases due to growing human populations and increases in duration and severity of drought. Mesic areas provide important water resources for numerous wildlife species, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. Understanding how wildlife use these crucial areas is necessary to inform management and conservation of sensitive species. Specifically, the influence of anthropogenic water subsidies such as irrigated pastures is not well-studied. We evaluated brood-rearing habitat selection and brood survival of sage-grouse in Long Valley, California, an area where the water rights are primarily owned by the city of Los Angeles and water is used locally to irrigate for livestock. This area thus represents a unique balance between the needs of wildlife and people that could increasingly define future water management. In this study, sage-grouse broods moved closer to the edge of mesic areas and used more interior areas during the late brood-rearing period, selecting for greener areas after 1 July. Mesic areas were particularly important during dry years, with broods using areas farther interior than in wet years. Brood survival was also positively influenced by the availability and condition of mesic resources, as indicated by variation in values of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), with survival peaking at moderate values of NDVI and just outside the edge but decreasing inside the mesic areas. Our results highlight the importance of quality edge habitat of large mesic areas for sage-grouse to balance habitat selection and survival, particularly during drier years and during the late brood-rearing period, which is a critical period because chick survival has been shown to influence population growth. This study highlights the implications of large-scale anthropogenic water manipulation, and the balance between local irrigation and water distribution to benefit other regions, from the context of a species of high conservation concern in North American sagebrush ecosystems.

California↗
USGS2022

Maladaptive nest-site selection and reduced nest survival in female sage-grouse following wildfire

Increased wildfire frequency and associated replacement of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) with invasive annual grasses contribute to declines of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) populations across the Great Basin. However, little is known about wildfire effects on sage-grouse nest-site selection and nest survival, which can influence population persistence. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of the Rush Fire on sage-grouse nest survival using before (2007–2009) and after (2015–2018) data collected from a population of sage-grouse occupying the border of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada. We employed a before–after–control–impact (BACI) experimental design to account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the system and to derive estimates of relative change in survival parameters. Sage-grouse nest survival decreased after the Rush Fire but decreased more in the burned area relative to the unburned area. Although female sage-grouse continued to occupy burned areas, nest survival was reduced from 52% to 19%. Using a BACI ratio approach we found that nest survival decreased approximately 51% in the burned area, relative to the unburned area, following wildfire. Habitat analyses were restricted to the postfire period and found that female sage-grouse that nested within unburned areas selected for wider nesting substrate, taller perennial grass height, and greater low sagebrush canopy cover. Conversely, female sage-grouse that nested in burned areas used shorter sagebrush canopy cover than what was available across the entire study area but showed stronger selection for perennial grass height than their unburned counterparts. Strong nest-site fidelity in sage-grouse may explain the continued use of suboptimal habitat in wildfire-altered landscapes, resulting in a reproductive cost, and overall reproduction well below replacement rate. Results suggest that fire suppression or rapid postfire habitat restoration, especially within nesting habitat, may be essential to conserving robust sage-grouse populations into the future.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2022

Defining biologically relevant and hierarchically nested population units to inform wildlife management

Wildlife populations are increasingly affected by natural and anthropogenic changes that negatively alter biotic and abiotic processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales and therefore require increased wildlife management and conservation efforts. However, wildlife management boundaries frequently lack biological context and mechanisms to assess demographic data across the multiple spatiotemporal scales influencing populations. To address these limitations, we developed a novel approach to define biologically relevant subpopulations of hierarchically nested population levels that could facilitate managing and conserving wildlife populations and habitats. Our approach relied on the Spatial “K”luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal clustering algorithm, which we applied in an agglomerative manner (bottom-to-top). We modified the clustering algorithm using a workflow and population structure tiers from least-cost paths, which captured biological inferences of habitat conditions (functional connectivity), dispersal capabilities (potential connectivity), genetic information, and functional processes affecting movements. The approach uniquely included context of habitat resources (biotic and abiotic) summarized at multiple spatial scales surrounding locations with breeding site fidelity and constraint-based rules (number of sites grouped and population structure tiers). We applied our approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern, across their range within the western United States. This case study produced 13 hierarchically nested population levels (akin to cluster levels, each representing a collection of subpopulations of an increasing number of breeding sites). These closely approximated population closure at finer ecological scales (smaller subpopulation extents with fewer breeding sites; cluster levels ≥2), where >92% of individual sage-grouse's time occurred within their home cluster. With available population monitoring data, our approaches can support the investigation of factors affecting population dynamics at multiple scales and assist managers with making informed, targeted, and cost-effective decisions within an adaptive management framework. Importantly, our approach provides the flexibility of including species-relevant context, thereby supporting other wildlife characterized by site fidelity.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

A sagebrush conservation design to proactively restore America’s sagebrush biome

A working group of experts with diverse professional backgrounds and disciplinary expertise was assembled to conceptualize a spatially explicit conservation design to support and inform the Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Part 2. The goal was to leverage recent advancements in remotely sensed landcover products to develop spatially and temporally explicit maps of sagebrush rangeland condition and landscape threats. In addition, the group sought to provide a common basis for understanding the state of sagebrush rangelands through time. First, the study team developed a spatially explicit model to assess geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used this model to identify core sagebrush areas (CSAs), growth opportunity areas (GOAs), and other rangeland areas (ORAs) across the biome. Among the identified rangelands, 33.4 million acres were classified as CSAs; 84.3 million acres as GOAs; and 127.2 million acres as ORAs as of 2020. Second, the team sought to demonstrate the ecological relevance of the identified CSAs and GOAs by comparing these data with independent datasets for sagebrush obligate species of conservation concern. Geographical patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity were strongly associated with the occurrence of high-priority species and also displayed clear links to population performance for greater sage-grouse. Third, the team parsed out the type, location, and acres of primary threats within the different categories (CSAs, GOAs, and ORAs) to help focus active management by identifying places where multiagency and organization efforts can protect CSAs and GOAs that have higher levels of integrity with lower cumulative threats. The assessment of the condition of the sagebrush biome (that is, the location, amount, and conservation status) indicated that complex ecosystem function problems are driving ~73 percent of the demonstrated threats within the CSAs and GOAs (rather than point-source problems, such as human development). Fourth, the team developed trend estimates for the identified CSAs and GOAs and three selected primary threats (invasive annual grasses, conifer encroachment, and human modification) to the sagebrush biome from 2001 to 2020. Results showed that an average of 1.3 million acres per year have transitioned to ORAs at an annual rate of −1.34 percent. Fifth, the team developed an approach to integrate climate change effects into the threat-based landscape conservation design and conducted an initial assessment on the magnitude of near-term climate effects in the context of observed historical trends. The team’s analysis suggests that climate change alone is unlikely to be the dominant threat to sagebrush ecological integrity in the next few decades, although interactions of climate with wildfire and invasive annual grasses may be an important threat, especially in the longer term. A spatial overlap analysis was performed and highlighted 45.8 million acres of shared priorities among existing conservation frameworks to help anchor and guide collaborative landscape-scale conservation of areas that still have no to low threats. This information is critical to provide context for decisions about the volume and nature of conservation actions and funding requirements.

western United States↗
USGS2022

Targeting sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) restoration following wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest selection and survival models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2022

Invasion of annual grasses following wildfire corresponds to maladaptive habitat selection by a sagebrush ecosystem indicator species

Numerous wildlife species within semi-arid shrubland ecosystems across western North America are experiencing substantial habitat loss and fragmentation. These changes in habitat are often attributed to a diverse suite of factors including prolonged and increasingly severe droughts, conifer expansion, anthropogenic development, domestic and feral livestock grazing, and invasion of exotic annual grasses, which promotes increased wildfire frequency and severity. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) are considered an indicator of sagebrush ecosystem health and have experienced widespread population decline associated with habitat loss and degradation, as well as changes in predator communities. Our objectives were to model and map sage-grouse habitat selection and survival during the important brood-rearing life stage in relation to landscape-scale environmental predictors. Furthermore, we sought to understand impacts of wildfire and annual grass invasion on brood habitat, as these accelerated disturbance regimes are a primary cause of habitat loss within the Great Basin region of the USA. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to estimate resource selection functions and survival for early and late brood-rearing stages of sage-grouse in relation to a broad suite of habitat characteristics evaluated at multiple spatial scales within the Great Basin from 2009 to 2019. Sage-grouse selected for greater perennial grass cover, higher relative elevations, and areas closer to springs and wet meadows during both early and late brood-rearing. Terrain characteristics, including heat load and aspect, were important in survival models, as was variation in shrub height. We also found strong evidence for higher survival for both early and late broods within previously burned areas, but survival within burned areas decreased as annual grass cover (i.e. cheatgrass , Bromus tectorum ) increased. This interaction effect demonstrates how invasion of annual grasses into burned areas, which has become prevalent in Great Basin sagebrush ecosystems, can lead to maladaptive habitat selection by brood-rearing greater sage-grouse. Understanding these complex relationships aids wildlife conservation and habitat management as wildfire and annual grass cycles continue to accelerate across western ecosystems.

California, Nevada↗