Geology topics

Peter Alsip

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Alsip.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were robust to assumed pelagic larval duration and precise location and timing of hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable temperatures and zooplankton densities compared to larvae transported offshore. Larval exploitation of nearshore resources under climate change may depend on a concomitant shift to earlier spawning and hatch times in advance of earlier offshore transport.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2024

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

Lake Erie hypoxia spatial and temporal dynamics present challenges for assessing progress toward water quality goals

Seasonal hypolimnetic hypoxia has been documented in Lake Erie’s central basin since the 1950s. Ship-based surveys to monitor hypoxia have been conducted since the 1980s, but they occur at a relatively low frequency and focus on the deeper areas of the central basin. To better document the seasonal development of stratification and the consequent occurrence of hypoxia, we deployed eight moorings, in both nearshore-shallow areas and offshore-deep areas of the central basin, equipped with temperature and oxygen sensors at multiple depths, that recorded temperature and oxygen concentrations every 10 minutes. Results from 2017-2019 reveal that hypoxia occurs as early as July in the shallower areas west of, and around the southern perimeter of the central basin, but does not occur until August or September in the deeper central basin. Hypoxia is intermittent in the shallower perimeter areas; whereas in the deeper areas, hypoxia can persist into October, often progressing to anoxia. The intra and interannual differences in the spatial and temporal extent of hypoxia indicate that an extensive monitoring program will be necessary to more accurately assess progress toward reducing the extent of hypoxia pursuant to the lake ecosystem objectives of the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗