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Paul Segall

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Segall.

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The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Main shock characteristics

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (0004:15.2 G.m.t. October 18; lat 37.036º N., long 121.883º W.; 19-km depth) had a local magnitude (M L ) of about 6.7, a surface-wave magnitude (M S ) of 7.1, a seismic moment of 2.2x10 19 N-m to 3.5x10 19 N-m, a source duration of 6 to 15 s, and an average stress drop of at least 50 bars. Slip occurred on a dipping fault surface about 35 km long and was largely confined to a depth of about 7 to 20 km. The slip vector had a large vertical component, and slip was distributed in two main regions situated northwest and southeast of the hypocenter. This slip distribution caused about half of the earthquake's energy to be focused toward the urbanized San Francisco Bay region, while the other half was focused toward the southeast. Had the rupture initiated at the southeast end of the aftershock zone, shaking in the bay region would have been both longer and stronger. These source parameters suggest that the earthquake was not a typical shallow San Andreas-type event but a deeper event on a different fault with a recurrence interval of many hundreds of years. Therefore, the potential for a damaging shallow event on the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains may still exist.

California

Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes

The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

California

Slip deficit on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data

A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.

California