Geology topics

Paul C. Cross

Publications and source records attributed to Paul C. Cross.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Predicting disease spread from host movement data: Chronic wasting disease in North America as a case study

1. Rare long-distance movements can increase the spatial spread of invasive species and shifts in species ranges. However, in the context of wildlife disease spread, seasonal migrations only matter if they lead to transmission beyond an individual’s initial set of contacts, and the importance of juvenile dispersal depends on whether those juveniles become infected before they disperse. 2. High resolution animal movement data are increasing, but it is unclear how to leverage these data to improve predictions future disease spread particularly in regions without pre-existing movement data. 3. We predicted the speed of chronic wasting disease (CWD) spread based on movement metrics of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and compared our predictions to observed spreading rates in North America from 2005 to 2022. We hypothesized that CWD should spread faster in regions with long-distance migratory mule deer, but this hypothesis was only partially supported. 4. Observed rates of CWD spread were faster in western epicenters with more mobile mule deer than in epicenters with only white-tailed deer (14-18 km/yr compared to 5-7 km/yr, respectively). However, the observed speed of CWD spread did not align well with migration distances. Deer movements in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (CPP) were far shorter than those in Colorado and Wyoming, yet had faster CWD spread much of which was open prairies where deer movements tend to be along riverine corridors rather than the longer elevational migrations in more montane regions. 5. Generally, our predicted rates of CWD spread from three different models were far slower than the observed rates regardless of whether the model included dispersal or migration. Understanding of these discrepancies is needed before high-resolution animal movement data can be used to predict broad-scale patterns of disease invasion. 6. Anthropogenic movements likely explain longer-distance movements of CWD across North America, but it remains unclear whether human-mediated movements or alternative analytical methods and deer movement metrics can explain the faster than predicted local CWD spread.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2026

Toxoplasma gondii: Challenges and perspectives in interpreting longitudinal seroprevalence data for a chronic parasitic infection

Toxoplasma gondii —the causative agent of toxoplasmosis—is a zoonotic pathogen of warm-blooded hosts. Infection causes mild-to-severe symptoms, including lethargy, fever, muscle pain, abortion, ocular disease, and encephalitis. Toxoplasma affects many vertebrate species, although felids are the only known definitive hosts. Seroprevalence in wildlife is often assessed using cross-sectional data, but few studies have tracked individual-level infections through time. We present a 4-yr dataset from white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) with repeated sampling of individuals that highlights challenges associated with assigning serostatus to individuals. Using a modified agglutination test, we observed seroconversion from seronegative to seropositive within individuals, as expected. Although toxoplasmosis is known to be a chronic disease, we also found reversion from seropositive to seronegative. Accurate assignment of serostatus is necessary for evaluating effects of infection on behavioral and physiologic outcomes. However, longitudinal data from individuals whose titers oscillate around the positive threshold present novel challenges. Therefore, we discuss the implications for assigning serostatus for chronic toxoplasmosis infection for three proposed approaches: 1) ever positive, always positive; 2) negative until positive and then always positive; and 3) status by sampling period. Clarifying which approach is used to assign serostatus when analyzing longitudinal T. gondii data may enable more meaningful comparisons across systems and studies.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2025

Challenges and opportunities in mitigating sarcoptic mange in wild South American camelids

Vicuñas ( Vicugna vicugna ) and guanacos ( Lama guanicoe ) are the two species of wild South American camelids whose distributions range from Peru to northern Argentina and southern Peru to southern Argentina, respectively. Listed as critically endangered in the 1960s due to poaching, vicuña numbers had been gradually recovering; however, new concerns about population stability have arisen with recent observations of sarcoptic mange outbreaks in this species. Sarcoptic mange is an infectious skin disease caused by the microscopic burrowing mite, Sarcoptes scabiei , which infects nearly 150 mammalian species globally, including guanaco and vicuña. Wild camelid populations across Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru have been affected by sarcoptic mange, with the most severe outbreaks resulting in localized extirpation. Population declines have conservation and economic implications, as many local communities harvest vicuña and guanaco fiber for profit. We review the current literature on sarcoptic mange in wild camelids from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru to establish a current state of knowledge on spatial prevalence, management, and therapeutics, and identify existing knowledge gaps. Critical next steps include 1) implementation of effective management strategies that limit the transmission of sarcoptic mange, 2) standardization of data collected during community capture (i.e., chaccu) events, 3) assessing the potential role of community captures in mite transmission, and 4) evaluation of treatment options and best practices for implementation. Further, there is a need for capacity building to improve disease diagnostics and surveillance in wild camelids. A multisectoral collaboration between governmental authorities, communities, academic institutions, and national and international organizations focusing on wild South American camelid conservation could contribute to building actions aimed at preventing future outbreaks and mitigating the current burden of sarcoptic mange disease.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2025

Decision framing overview and performance of management alternatives for bison and elk feedground management at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A (this chapter) provides scoping details of the “BEMP,” a summary of the 19 metrics used to evaluate the performance of each of the 6 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Additional technical details, results, and interpretations are briefly covered in this chapter but are mostly contained in chapters B–F.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short-versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Evaluating elk distribution and conflict under proposed management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

We evaluated measurable attributes describing the current and future distribution of Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) across a region surrounding Jackson, Wyoming, for five feedground management alternatives proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as a revision to the 2007 “Bison and Elk Management Plan” of the National Elk Refuge. A resource selection function evaluated measurable attributes of interest to managers, including elk use of private property and sensitive habitat types at monthly timesteps and varying winter conditions. The study area boundaries were created through an expert elicitation process and consist of the Jackson Elk Herd Unit, Grand Teton National Park, the National Elk Refuge, and the northern third of the Fall Creek Elk Herd Unit. For each of the five alternatives, we distributed monthly elk numbers calculated in a concurrent analysis that simulated chronic wasting disease dynamics in this system for 20 years. Measurable attributes representing potential elk use of (1) private property, (2) cattle properties as an index of Brucella abortus risk, and sensitive habitats consisting of (3) Populus tremuloides Michx. (quaking aspen), (4) Populus angustifolia E. James (narrowleaf cottonwood), and (5) Salix L. (willow) in core winter use areas all closely followed the declines of elk abundance projected by the elk chronic wasting disease model. After 20 years, the continue feeding alternative ranked most favorably in terms of limiting elk days on private property and reducing brucellosis risk from elk to cattle because this alternative concentrated elk on the National Elk Refuge and resulted in the lowest elk population sizes. However, other management alternatives, including increase harvest and reduce feeding, tended to limit elk use of sensitive quaking aspen, narrowleaf cottonwood, and willow habitats during winter (December–April).

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Elk personality and anthropogenic food subsidy: Managing conflict and migration loss

The continued decline of long-distance ungulate migrations threatens to decouple important ecological processes that increase biodiversity and wildlife abundance. Past research has focused on preserving migration paths where habitat fragmentation and loss disrupt movement corridors. However, shifting residency-migration trade-offs are the stronger driver of migration loss in some populations. Suburban residential developments may provide ungulates with anthropogenic food sources and refuge from predators, which can increase population growth among short-distance migrants relative to long-distance migrants. This trend can increase wildlife vehicle collisions and other human–wildlife conflicts while simultaneously reducing hunting opportunities. Yet, individual animals vary in their tolerance of human disturbance. We investigated how interindividual variation relative to conflict and human habituation influences elk migration and space use on shared winter range. We used a clustering algorithm applied to GPS collar data to identify elk use of anthropogenic food resources in suburban habitat. Cluster locations identified all known anthropogenic subsidy locations during the study period. Elk that used suburban anthropogenic food sources also migrated 60% shorter distances between summer and winter ranges than elk with no known use of these food subsidies. Elk use of protected wintering grounds was spatially structured such that conflict-prone, short-distance migrants disproportionately used areas with more human activity. Clustering algorithms applied to GPS collar data may allow managers to identify foci of concentrated use that generates human–wildlife conflict, and where prion deposition and environmental contamination facilitate the spread of chronic wasting disease, particularly in suburban areas with anthropogenic food subsidies. The apparent spatial structuring of shared winter range according to the conflict potential and migration strategy of individual elk may also permit managers to assess relative recruitment among cryptic population segments using different migration strategies and facilitate targeted, adaptive management actions. These associations between conflict, human habituation, and migration shed light on the urbanization of wildlife species, inform efforts to manage human–wildlife conflict and disease spread, and emphasize that a multipronged approach beyond maintaining habitat corridors may be necessary to conserve long-distance migrations for species that can become human-habituated.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

The influence of human presence and footprint on animal space use in US national parks

Given the importance of protected areas for biodiversity, the growth of visitation to many areas has raised concerns about the effects of humans on wildlife. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to temporary closure of national parks in the United States, offering a pseudonatural experiment to tease apart the effects of permanent infrastructure and transient human presence on animals. We compiled GPS tracking data from 229 individuals of 10 mammal species in 14 parks and used third-order hierarchical resource selection functions to evaluate the influence of the human footprint on animal space use in 2019 and 2020. Averaged across all parks and species, animals avoided the human footprint, whether the park was open or closed. However, although animals in remote areas showed consistent avoidance, on average those in more developed areas switched from avoidance to selection when protected areas were closed. Findings varied across species: some responded consistently negatively to the footprint (wolves, mountain goats), some positively (mule deer, red fox) and others had a strong exposure-mediated response (elk, mountain lion). Furthermore, some species responded more strongly to the park closure (black bear, moose). This study advances our understanding of complex interactions between recreation and wildlife in protected areas.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Unintended indirect effects limit elk productivity from supplemental feeding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The widespread practice of supplemental feeding, a bottom-up forcing of resource availability, is intended to improve wildlife population health and survival. However, supplemental feeding could trigger indirect effects by altering predation rates and disease dynamics. We investigated the effects of feeding on three key elk ( Cervus canadensis ) population productivity metrics (calf:cow ratios, annual change in elk density, and harvestable surplus) across 13 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) over 26 years. Incorporating previous population size, climate, predator, and harvest data in a Bayesian regression framework revealed new insights about elk productivity metrics in the GYE. Supplemental feeding was associated with increased calf:cow ratios (4.9%) but was not substantially related to changes in elk density and harvestable surplus, which are both management targets. Notably, the feeding effect on calf:cow ratios appeared to be offset by increased wolf ( Canis lupus ) and grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) predation. We hypothesize that increased elk productivity resulting from supplemental feeding is primarily transferred to predator and pathogen trophic levels in this system with limited observed effects on elk abundance and harvestable surplus. Anthropogenic food resources may have unintended indirect consequences on other trophic levels that potentially limit the direct impacts of feeding.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Applying the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to wildlife health management

Wildlife diseases can have substantial impacts on wildlife populations as well as on human and domestic animal health and well-being. Although many agencies and stakeholders share a goal of supporting wildlife health, reducing wildlife disease burden is complicated by a scarcity of effective interventions for wildlife, competition for funds, and conflicting priorities. As a result, agencies are unlikely to avoid the impacts of wildlife diseases in all contexts and need to evaluate where resisting disease is most feasible and beneficial. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework is a tool that assists natural resource managers in exploring and communicating about management interventions, including in situations where resisting ecological changes may not be possible. In the present article, we discuss how the RAD framework could be adapted to wildlife disease contexts to address several outstanding challenges in wildlife health management.

BioScience↗

USGS2025

Expanding national-scale wildlife disease surveillance systems with research networks

Efficient learning about disease dynamics in free-ranging wildlife systems can benefit from active surveillance that is standardized across different ecological contexts. For example, active surveillance that targets specific individuals and populations with standardized sampling across ecological contexts (landscape-scale targeted surveillance) is important for developing a mechanistic understanding of disease emergence, which is the foundation for improving risk assessment of zoonotic or wildlife-livestock disease outbreaks and predicting hotspots of disease emergence. However, landscape-scale targeted surveillance systems are rare and challenging to implement. Increasing experience and infrastructure for landscape-scale targeted surveillance will improve readiness for rapid deployment of this type of surveillance in response to new disease emergence events. Here, we describe our experience developing and rapidly deploying a landscape-scale targeted surveillance system for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in two free-ranging deer species across their ranges in the United States. Our surveillance system was designed to collect data across individual, population, and landscape scales for future analyses aimed at understanding mechanisms and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution, and persistence. Our approach leveraged partnerships between state and federal public service sectors and academic researchers in a landscape-scale targeted surveillance research network. Methods describe our approach to developing the surveillance network and sampling design. Results report challenges with implementing our intended sampling design, specifically how the design was adapted as different challenges arose and summarize the sampling design that has been implemented thus far. In the discussion, we describe strategies that were important for the successful deployment of landscape-scale targeted surveillance, development and operation of the research network, construction of similar networks in the future, and analytical approaches for the data based on the sampling design.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2025

Scent detection dogs detect a species of hard tick, Dermacentor albipictus, with comparable accuracy and efficiency to traditional tick drag surveys

Background Accurate surveillance data are critical for addressing tick and tick-borne pathogen risk to human and animal health. Current surveillance methods for detecting invading or expanding tick species are limited in their ability to scale efficiently to state or national levels. In this study we explored the potential use of scent detection dogs to assist field surveys for a hard tick species: Dermacentor albipictus . Methods We used a series of indoor and in situ training simulations to teach scent detection dogs to recognize D. albipictus scent, distinguish tick scent from associated vegetation, and develop a cautious search pattern. After training, we deployed both a scent detection dog survey team and a human-only survey team on transect and surveillance plot surveys then compared the detection rates and efficiency of both methods. Results Scent detection dogs required more time and money to train on field surveys but were comparable to traditional tick drags when accounting for cost per unit area surveyed. There was a lack of agreement on positive (ticks present) versus negative (ticks not present) sites between the two methods, implying that neither method is particularly reliable at detecting D. albipictus . Conclusions Estimating detection bias and false negative rates for tick surveillance methods such as tick drags will be important for accurately evaluating tick-borne disease risk across space and into the future. We found scent detection dogs to be a reasonable alternative sampling approach to consider when ticks are at low abundance or patchily distributed such as during tick range expansion or novel invasions. Scent detection dogs may also be useful for sampling for ticks in areas or along surfaces that are difficult to sample with the traditional tick drag technique like at ports of entry or livestock competitions.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Winter tick sharing between ungulates in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and implications for apparent competition

Host species heterogeneity can drive parasite dynamics through variation in host competency as well as host abundance. We explored how elk ( Cervus canadensis ) with apparent subclinical infestations of winter tick ( Dermacentor albipictus ) may be a cryptic reservoir and drive winter tick dynamics, impacting moose ( Alces alces ) populations. We found that winter tick infestation loads did not vary remarkably between both host species and winter ticks sourced from elk and moose produced similar numbers of larvae which activated within 5 days of each other. We also found similar larval densities in habitats predominately used by elk, moose, and both host species. Our analysis of 2793 informative single-nucleotide polymorphisms showed genetic differentiation among tick populations that were only ~75 km apart, but fewer differences among ticks from elk or moose in the same locality, suggesting sharing of winter ticks across host species. Despite the clinical signs of high winter tick infestations being most apparent on moose, elk may be critical drivers of winter tick population dynamics and indirectly compete with moose in areas where they outnumber moose populations, a common characteristic of ungulate communities in western North America. Management interventions aimed at addressing winter tick issues on moose may wish to consider the movement patterns and abundance of cryptic reservoirs like elk.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Decision framing overview and performance of management alternatives for bison and elk feedground management at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A (this chapter) provides scoping details of the “BEMP”, a summary of the 19 metrics that are used to evaluate the performance of each of 5 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Additional technical details, results, and interpretations are briefly covered in this chapter, but are mostly contained in chapters B–E.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short- versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Evaluating elk distribution and conflict under proposed management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Potential effects of chronic wasting disease and supplemental feeding on elk populations in Wyoming

Introduction In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, evaluated the costs and benefits of supplemental elk ( Cervus elaphus canadensis ) feeding in western Wyoming. Elk supplemental feeding is intended to maintain elk populations in the winter and limit elk damage to private property. Supplemental feeding is also used to minimize the transmission of brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) from elk to cattle. If brucellosis is detected in cattle, the U.S. Department of Agriculture requires that the entire herd be euthanized or placed in quarantine until the herd passes several negative tests for the disease. However, supplemental feeding may enhance the transmission and effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD), which has no treatment or vaccine, is always fatal, and can remain infectious in the environment for many years. Key findings from the U.S. Geological Survey evaluation help assess the costs and benefits of four supplemental elk feeding alternatives and their potential implications for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address chronic wasting disease and cervid health in 2024–2028

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a neurological disease similar to scrapie in goats and sheep, has been spreading since the 1960s throughout cervid populations in the United States. It is currently detected in 30 States and now also extends to Canada, Korea, and Scandinavia. CWD is a fatal disease caused by an infectious abnormally folded prion protein. Population-level effects of CWD on localized subpopulations of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and elk ( Cervus elaphus ) have been documented. While susceptible to CWD, free-ranging moose ( Alces alces ) and reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) populations do not currently appear to be as severely affected. The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Chronic Wasting Disease and Cervid Health Science Team is to deliver integrated science to build resiliency into free-ranging cervid populations through more effective management of CWD, build capacity for ungulate health science, and enhance cervid health information sharing across USGS science centers and cooperative research units as well as with stakeholders. The USGS can play an important role in supporting regional and (or) national capacity building by providing resources and guidance to local, State, and Tribal management entities and by providing tools to enhance disease management. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area’s Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program (BTRP) is the lead Federal program for free-ranging wildlife disease research and surveillance. The BTRP is relied upon by Congress, as well as local, State, and Tribal partners, to provide quality science that allows for informed decisions to be made about wildlife disease policy, planning, and management. The information provided by our research gives policy makers and the public the understanding needed to improve management preparedness and response. This document describes the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy To Address Chronic Wasting Disease and Cervid Health. It lays out a 5-year science strategy (2024–2028) for continued USGS research to study CWD in free-ranging cervids and their environments. The strategy includes improving detection methods, advancing our understanding of the mechanisms of transmission, incorporating the human dimensions and socio-economic effects of CWD in scientific studies, developing tools for decision making, and understanding potential effects of this disease on ecosystem health.

Circular↗