Geology topics

Patrick J. Lynett

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick J. Lynett.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

A 481 m-high landslide-tsunami in a cruise ship-frequented Alaska fjord

Early in the morning of 10 August 2025, a >64 × 10 6 –cubic meter landslide struck Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska. The landslide was preconditioned by glacial retreat caused by climate change. The resulting 481-meter runup megatsunami followed an initial 100-meter-high breaking wave traveling at >70 meters per second. The landslide was preceded by several days of microseismicity, which increased in rate and magnitude until ~1 hour before failure. The landslide produced globally observed long-period seismic waves equivalent in size to a moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake. A long-period (~66 second) global seismic signal, produced by a landslide-induced seiche trapped within the fjord, persisted for up to 36 hours, the second time a days-long seiche had thus been observed. With fjord regions increasingly visited by cruise ships, and climate change making similar events more likely, this unanticipated, near-miss event highlights the growing risk from landslides and tsunamis in coastal environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Developing a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment framework for Pacific sources: USGS Powell Center meeting summary

Multi-organizational principal investigators formed a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Powell Center Working Group (WG), Tsunami Source Standardization for Hazards Mitigation in the United States, to develop a comprehensive series of sources capable of generating tsunamis that could impact U.S. state and territory coastal areas using probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). PTHA results are commonly used to provide consistent tsunami hazard information for use in engineering and risk assessment and, to a lesser extent, hazard response planning. Following an initial weeklong planning meeting in April 2018, designed to establish the WG’s scope, a series of weeklong meetings devoted to aspects of tsunami hazards placed emphasis on assessment of various tsunami sources, including subduction zones in Alaska, the Atlantic and Caribbean, Cascadia, and the Pacific Basin, as well as landslides in Alaska, the Atlantic, and the Caribbean. The final meeting in the series discussed tsunami sources from crustal faults. These meetings, each with a regional geographic focus, were designed to incorporate reviews and feedback from subject matter experts (SMEs) in academia, private industry, and federal, state, and local governmental organizations. Incorporating consensus from SMEs is important because the results derived from the tsunami source models will be used to inform the public about potential hazards from tsunamis related to safety concerns. This paper describes the USGS Powell Center meeting in March 2023, devoted specifically to developing a PTHA for tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean Basin other than the Alaska–Aleutian and Cascadia subduction zones that were addressed during previous WG meetings.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

USGS2020

Detection and assessment of a large and potentially tsunamigenic periglacial landslide in Barry Arm, Alaska

The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 million m 3 ) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Oceanography↗

USGS2012

Submarine slides north of Puerto Rico and their tsunami potential

New multibeam bathymetry of the entire Puerto Rico trench reveals numerous retrograde slope failures at various scales at the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The slumped material comprises carbonate blocks, which fail, at least in initial stages, as a coherent rock mass. This, combined with the fact that the edge of the carbonate platform is steeper than most continental slopes, indicates a higher potential for tsunami run-up than along many other U.S. coasts. The style of slope failure appears to be rock falls, slide blocks and debris avalanches. Secondary failure of the failed carbonate products and of the underlying forearc sediments and rocks may lead to debris flows and turbidity flows. Fissures, discovered in the ocean floor near the edge of the platform, indicate that the process is expected to continue in the future. One of the slope failures, the Arecibo amphitheater, previously thought to represent a single giant slide with a volume of 900-1500 cu. km, appears to comprise smaller failures. The expected maximum tsunami run-up on the northern coast of Puerto Rico from one of these slope failures is <20 m, much lower than previously estimated. A recurrence rate of 100s kyr was calculated for the largest observed failures along the edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico using simple assumptions. Smaller landslides would presumably occur at a higher recurrence rate. Elsewhere around the island, a 20-km wide failure scarp was discovered in the Upper Mona rift and could be associated with the 1918 tsunami and earthquake that hit northwestern Puerto Rico. Large slope failures were also discovered for the first time on the northern side of the Puerto Rico trench. Because Puerto Rico trench slides occur at large water depths (~6000 m), have large horizontal and vertical dimensions, and the directivity from tsunamis emanating from these slides is toward Puerto Rico, they may be of particular concern and may necessitate further study.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2011

Insights on the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in Samoa and Tonga from field surveys and numerical simulations

An M w ≈ 8.1 earthquake south of the Samoan Islands on 29 September 2009 generated a tsunami that killed 189 people. From 4 to 11 October, an International Tsunami Survey Team surveyed the seven major islands of the Samoan archipelago. The team measured locally focused runup heights of 17 m at Poloa and inundation of more than 500 m at Pago Pago. A follow-up expedition from 23 to 28 November surveying the three main islands of Tonga's northernmost Niua group revealed surprising 22 m runup and 1 km inundation. We analyze the extreme tsunami runup and complex impact distribution based on physical and societal observations combined with numerical modeling. That an outer rise/outer trench slope (OR/OTS) event is responsible for a tsunami disaster in the Pacific calls for care in identifying and defining tsunami hazards. Evacuation exercises conducted in Samoa in the preceding year may have limited the human toll; however, cars were identified as potential death traps during tsunami evacuations. This event highlights the extreme hazards from near source tsunamis when the earthquake's shaking constitutes the de facto warning, and further underscores the importance of community based education and awareness programs as essential in saving lives.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2010

Field survey of the Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009

On 29 September 2009, a strong earthquake took place south of the Samoa Islands in the southcentral Pacific. It triggered a local tsunami, which caused considerable damage and 189 fatalities on the Samoa Islands and in the northern Tonga archipelago. We present here the results of a tsunami survey conducted by an International Tsunami Survey Team in the Samoa Islands on 4-10 October 2009 and in northern Tonga on 25–27 November 2009.

Manono, Manu'a Islands, Motu O Manu, Niuafo'ou, Ni↗