Geology topics

Patricia L. Brandes

Publications and source records attributed to Patricia L. Brandes.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2018

Flow-mediated effects on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon in a spatially complex, tidally forced river delta

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates.

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USGS2017

Science advancements key to increasing management value of life stage monitoring networks for endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon in California

A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winterrun Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California’s Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within- and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity, abundance, and condition diminishes, despite the juvenile monitoring enterprise. We identified six system-wide recommended actions to strengthen the value of data generated from the existing monitoring network to assess resource management actions: (1) incorporate genetic run identification; (2) develop juvenile abundance estimates; (3) collect data for life history diversity metrics at multiple life stages; (4) expand and enhance real-time fish survival and movement monitoring; (5) collect fish condition data; and (6) provide timely public access to monitoring data in open data formats. To illustrate how updated technologies can enhance the existing monitoring to provide quantitative data on SRWRC, we provide examples of how each recommendation can address specific management issues.

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USGS2016

Anadromous salmonids in the Delta: New science 2006–2016

As juvenile salmon enter the Sacramento–SanJoaquin River Delta (“the Delta”) they disperse among its complex channel network where they are subject to channel-specific processes that affect their rate of migration, vulnerability to predation, feeding success, growth rates, and ultimately, survival. In the decades before 2006, tools available to quantify growth, dispersal, and survival of juvenile salmon in this complex channel network were limited.Fortunately, thanks to technological advances such as acoustic telemetry and chemical and structural otolith analysis, much has been learned over the past decade about the role of the Delta in the life cycle of juvenile salmon. Here, we review new science between 2006and 2016 that sheds light on how different life stages and runs of juvenile salmon grow, move, and survive in the complex channel network of the Delta. One of the most important advances during the past decade has been the widespread adoption of acoustic telemetry techniques. Use of telemetry has shed light on how survival varies among alternative migration routes and the proportion of fish that use each migration route. Chemical and structural analysis of otoliths has provided insights about when juveniles left their natal river and provided evidence of extended rearing in the brackish or saltwater regions of the Delta. New advancements in genetics now allow individuals captured by trawls to be assigned to specific runs. Detailed information about movement and survival in the Delta has spurred development of agent-based models of juvenile salmon that are coupled to hydrodynamic models. Although much has been learned, knowledge gaps remain about how very small juvenile salmon (fry and parr) use the Delta. Understanding how all life stages of juvenile salmon grow, rear, and survive in the Delta is critical for devising management strategies that support a diversity of life history strategies.

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USGS2015

Effect of tides, river flow, and gate operations on entrainment of juvenile salmon into the interior Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

Juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River, California, must negotiate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, the Delta), a complex network of natural and man-made channels linking the Sacramento River with San Francisco Bay. Fish that enter the interior and southern Delta—the region to the south of the Sacramento River where water pumping stations are located—survive at a lower rate than fish that use alternative migration routes. Consequently, total survival decreases as the fraction of the population entering the interior Delta increases, thus spurring management actions to reduce the proportion of fish that are entrained into the interior Delta. To better inform management actions, we modeled entrainment probability as a function of hydrodynamic variables. We fitted alternative entrainment models to telemetry data that identified when tagged fish in the Sacramento River entered two river channels leading to the interior Delta (Georgiana Slough and the gated Delta Cross Channel). We found that the probability of entrainment into the interior Delta through both channels depended strongly on the river flow and tidal stage at the time of fish arrival at the river junction. Fish that arrived during ebb tides had a low entrainment probability, whereas fish that arrived during flood tides (i.e., when the river's flow was reversed) had a high probability of entering the interior Delta. We coupled our entrainment model with a flow simulation model to evaluate the effect of nighttime closures of the Delta Cross Channel gates on the daily probability of fish entrainment into the interior Delta. Relative to 24-h gate closures, nighttime closures increased daily entrainment probability by 3 percentage points on average if fish arrived at the river junction uniformly throughout the day and by only 1.3 percentage points if 85% of fish arrived at night. We illustrate how our model can be used to evaluate the effects of alternative water management actions on fish entrainment into the interior Delta.

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USGS2012

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

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