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Patricia J. Happe

Publications and source records attributed to Patricia J. Happe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Establishment of terrestrial mammals on former reservoir beds following large dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA

Terrestrial wildlife species are important yet often overlooked taxa in the recovery of ecosystems following dam removal. Their presence can shape ecosystem recovery, signal restoration of ecosystem function, and influence food web dynamics and nutrient transfer. We used camera traps to examine seasonal use of two former reservoir beds and an upstream reference reach by the mammalian community following the removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington, USA. For certain taxa, we compared current species use to data collected prior to dam removal. Camera traps revealed use by at least fifteen mammal species, including but not limited to American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ), puma ( Puma concolor ), coyotes ( Canis latrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), and snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ). Coyotes were found mostly lower in the watershed outside the Olympic National Park boundary, while other species were distributed throughout the restoration area. We did not see major differences in species composition between the restoration areas and the upstream reference reach, though number of detections across study reaches differed for most species. Unlike previous findings, black bears were observed across all seasons in this study, suggesting a shift in seasonal use since dam removal. Full restoration of the terrestrial wildlife community could take decades to unfold, but early patterns demonstrate rapid establishment and use by wildlife on new riparian surfaces that are expected to continue to evolve with restoration of fish and vegetation communities.

Washingotn↗
USGS2022

Post-release survival of translocated fishers: Implications for translocation success

As a vital tool for the conservation of species at risk, translocations are also opportunities to identify factors that influence translocation success. We evaluated factors associated with post-release survival of 90 radio-tracked fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) translocated from central British Columbia, Canada, to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington, USA, from 2008 to 2011. We hypothesized that the survival of translocated fishers would be affected by the same factors that influence the survival of resident, native fishers (i.e., sex, age, season, body condition), and additional factors that were associated with the translocation process (e.g., duration of captivity, release date, yr of release). Fisher survival was most strongly influenced by translocation year (i.e., release-yr cohort), season, sex, and age class of fisher; whereas duration of captivity, standardized body mass, release date, and number of intact canines did not influence survival. Survival was lowest for fishers released in cohort 2 in 2009 and during the breeding season (Mar–Jun), and was greatest for juveniles and males. When combined across release-year cohorts, year 1 survival rates were greatest for juvenile males followed by juvenile females, adult females, and adult males. Sex and age-related differences in survival of translocated fishers were counter to those commonly reported for established fisher populations, where adult females often have the highest survival rates and juveniles the lowest. Predation (40%) and vehicle strikes (20%) were the most common causes of known mortality among the 24 recovered fishers for which cause of death was determined. We speculate that females face higher risks of mortality in translocated populations because their small size makes them more vulnerable to predation and because adult females in resident populations are less likely than males and juveniles to disperse. Our findings support designing translocations that favor releasing a preponderance of female fishers in recognition of their lower survival rates and to ensure adequate breeders are established in the population, and juvenile and young adult fishers to enhance survival of both sexes. Releases conducted over multiple years will minimize the impact of stochastic annual events that may adversely affect survival in any given year. Persistence, widespread distribution, and documented reproduction of fishers within our study area for ≥6 years following the last releases indicate that survival parameters we measured contributed toward successful population establishment over the short term.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Factors influencing the post-release movements of translocated fishers: Implications for translocation success

Long distance, post-release movements of translocated wildlife can be a key factor limiting translocation success. Yet, for many species, we have little or no understanding of factors that influence post-release movements. Translocations have been important for recovering fisher Pekania pennanti populations across the southern portion of their North American range. However, little is known about the post-release movements of translocated fishers and how these movements may be influenced by demographic or translocation-process factors. To restore fishers in Washington State, we moved 90 fishers from central British Columbia and released them at nine sites in the Olympic Fisher Recovery Area on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington from 2008 to 2010. We evaluated post-release movements of 48 fishers to determine both the distance and duration of movements prior to home range establishment. Fishers moved extensively following their release. Multi-model selection indicated a high level of support for the hypothesis that post-release movements differed by fisher sex and age; whereas, year of release had no apparent effect on movements, and release date had only a marginal influence on male movements. Mean distance (± 95% CI) from a release site to a home range was greater for adult males (62.0 ± 19.6 km) than for juvenile males (31.4 ± 16.0 km), adult females (30.9 ± 21.1 km), and juvenile females (29.0 ± 13.5 km). Mean number of days from release until home range establishment was similar for the sexes, however the variance in movement duration was greater for females. Twenty-six of 27 females established home ranges over an 11-month period (December-October), while 19 of 21 males did so within a 4-month period (April-July). Mean home range sizes differed between males (128.3 ± 21.1 km2) and females (63.5 ± 9.0 km2) and were among the largest reported for the species. A greater proportion of females (18 of 27; 67%) than males (8 of 21; 38%) established home ranges within or partially within the recovery area. Six females left a previously established home range during the breeding season, presumably to find breeding males. Given the large distances that fishers can move following release, translocation success could be furthered by releasing individuals at fewer sites in the interior of large reintroduction areas to facilitate greater exposure to a recovery area and greater opportunity to interact with conspecifics and potential mates.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Diet composition of Fishers (Pekania pennanti) reintroduced on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Knowledge of diet composition can inform management strategies and efforts to recover endangered carnivore populations in vacant portions of their historic ranges. One such species, the Fisher ( Pekania pennanti ), was extirpated in Washington State prior to any formal documentation of its food habits in the coastal coniferous forests of western Washington. Fisher recovery efforts in Washington, based on translocating Fishers from extant populations, have been ongoing since 2008, beginning with the release of 90 Fishers on Washington's Olympic Peninsula from 2008 to 2010. We collected fecal samples or digestive tracts from 13 Fishers opportunistically on the Olympic Peninsula from 2009 through 2013. Subsequently, we identified the species composition of each sample's contents to determine the primary foods consumed by the reintroduced Fishers. Fisher diets were diverse and dominated by mammalian prey. Contents of feces and digestive tracts of Fishers were composed primarily of Snowshoe Hare ( Lepus americanus ) remains, followed by lesser proportions of Mountain Beavers ( Aplodontia rufa ), Northern Flying Squirrels ( Glaucomys sabrinus ), Douglas Squirrels ( Tamiasciurus douglasii ), Southern Red-backed Voles ( Myodes gapperi ), shrews ( Sorex spp.), and unidentified ungulate species. The diet of Fishers comprised species that occur across a wide range of land uses and management prescriptions, including previously logged forests and mature forests that have been set aside for retention of old-growth forest characteristics. Additional study of prey abundance and Fisher foraging behaviors related to structural habitat characteristics across a gradient of land uses would provide useful insights for enhancing the effectiveness of conservation efforts to benefit Fishers in Pacific Northwest coastal forests.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Small mammals and ungulates respond to and interact with revegetation processes following dam removal

Terrestrial wildlife communities are often overlooked as components of ecosystem restoration following dam removal. However, a diverse mammalian fauna colonizes habitat on dewatered reservoirs and may influence restoration processes. We studied mammalian colonization and ungulate herbivory from 2014 to 2018 following the removal of two large dams on the Elwha River in Washington, USA. Specifically, we examined (1) small mammal colonization and (2) Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) and Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ) distribution and browsing pressure in association with revegetation efforts. We live-trapped small mammals on two former reservoir beds and monitored deer and elk use by conducting pellet group counts and quantifying ungulate herbivory at plots throughout the former reservoir beds and an adjacent reference site. We found that the proportion of deciduous riparian species on plots best predicted occupancy for mice, shrews, and voles. Small mammal species diversity was best explained by the proportion of logs and conifers on study plots. Roosevelt elk presence and browsing intensity on willows ( Salix spp.) and black cottonwood ( Populus balsamifera ssp. trichocarpa ) varied both spatially and temporally, affecting the stature and potentially the growth trajectories of these species. Early seral restoration of these terrestrial habitats has included the presence of a diversity of granivores, insectivores, and herbivores, with elk demonstrating the strongest influence over portions of the study area. Small mammal colonization complements revegetation succession and demonstrates restoration of ecological processes, while large ungulates may be playing a more substantial role in shaping revegetation.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Occupancy patterns in a reintroduced fisher population during reestablishment

Monitoring population performance in the years following species reintroductions is key to assessing population restoration success and evaluating assumptions made in planning species restoration programs. From 2008–2010 we translocated 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia, Canada, to Washington's Olympic Peninsula, USA, providing the opportunity to evaluate modeling assumptions used to identify the most suitable reintroduction areas in Washington and enhance understanding of fisher habitat associations in the late‐successional forest ecosystems in the coastal Pacific Northwest. From 2013–2016, we deployed 788 motion‐sensing cameras and hair (DNA)‐snaring devices distributed among 263 24‐km 2 primary sampling units across the Olympic Peninsula. Our objectives were to determine whether occupancy patterns of the reestablishing population supported assumptions of the initial habitat assessment models, whether the population had expanded or shifted in distribution since the initial reintroductions, compare physical habitat attributes among land‐management designations, and determine whether the founding fishers had successfully reproduced. We predicted that site occupancy by fishers would be associated with landscapes characterized by high proportional coverage of dense forest canopies and medium‐sized and large trees, a diversity of stand structural classes, and area near the administrative boundary separating wilderness from more intensively managed forest lands. We detected fishers across designated wilderness, federal lands outside of wilderness, and other land designations in proportion to land availability on the Peninsula. We found negligible support for predictions that occupancy by fishers was associated with percent forest cover, tree‐size class, or structural class diversity. Rather, occupancy was strongly associated with lands near the wilderness boundary on both sides. We speculate that the boundary between wilderness and more intensively managed forest lands provided fishers with the most suitable prey in proximity to contiguous expanses of low‐ to mid‐elevation late‐successional forests that provided optimal resting, denning, and security values. Occupancy patterns shifted toward the west and south along a precipitation gradient during the study, indicating that population distribution had not yet stabilized 5–8 years following translocation. Genetic results indicated that ≥2 generations of fishers have been produced on the Peninsula. Annual occupancy rates across the Peninsula (0.08–0.24) were lower than in other previously studied and established fisher populations, indicating that not all habitat was fully occupied or that initial estimates of the extent of habitat was overestimated. The strong selection fishers exhibited for wilderness edge and weak selection against extensive forested wilderness areas suggested that habitat managers should strive for maintaining a suitable interspersion of required forest structures and biotic habitat components, such as prey resource availability.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2018

Landbird population trends in mountain and historical parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network: 2005–2016 synthesis

Long-term monitoring of landbird populations within the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN) began in 2005, with the goal of detecting trends to inform the conservation and management of landbirds and their habitats. Here we use 2005–2016 data from over 3500 point-count stations to report landbird occurrence and trends in each of five NCCN parks, including three national parks in mountain wilderness areas (Mount Rainier National Park, North Cascades National Park Complex and Olympic National Park) and two historical parks (Lewis and Clark National Historical Park and San Juan Island National Historical Park). Recent advances in point-count modeling were applied to characterize population trends for 68 landbird species, including up to 41 species in each park. Fitted models suggest that almost all species exhibited stable or increasing trends over the study period. Notable exceptions were a decline in the Olive-sided Flycatcher in two parks and single-park declines in the Norther Flicker, Hutton’s Vireo, Clark’s Nutcracker, Mountain Chickadee, Wilson’s Warbler and Dark-eyed Junco. Negative effects of precipitation-as-snow were supported in over one-third of our population models. Lower precipitation-as-snow in the mountain parks might have contributed to rising landbird densities during the study period. Population density also varied with elevation in mountain parks, but temporal trends were similar among elevational strata for each species analyzed, suggesting no evidence of elevational range-shifts during this study. These results reinforce recent analyses of the first 10 years of point-count data from the three mountain parks (Ray et al. 2017 a). In the current analysis, models were extended to explore effects of covariates on species detection probability. Negative effects of ambient noise level on detection were supported in several cases, but adding covariates of detection generally did not lead to substantial improvements in model fit. In some cases, model fit was improved by reducing the scope of inference to a portion of the focal region, suggesting important effects of habitat heterogeneity.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2017

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N -mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N -mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2016

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

Executive Summary We estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey. We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount Washington unit conducted by WDFW biologists in 2012 and combined it with the 2011 survey results to produce a complete survey conducted over 2 years. The revised estimates of mountain goat abundance occurring at elevations above 1,520 m were 230 ±19 (SE) in 2004, 350 ±41 (SE) in 2011, and 584 ±39 (SE) in 2016. The difference between the overall 2016 population estimate (623 ±43 [SE]) and the smaller estimate (584 ±39 [SE]) reflected the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded survey areas added in 2011. Based on comparisons within the standardized survey boundary, the mountain goat population in the Olympic Mountains increased at an average finite rate of 6 percent annually from 2004 to 2011, 11 percent annually from 2011 to 2016, and 8 percent annually over the combined period. We caution that the population may have been underestimated in 2011 because of record heavy snows persisting into the survey season. Therefore, the rate of population increase from 2011 and 2016 may be overestimated. The rate of increase measured over the combined period (2004–16) may be more representative of the recent population growth. We conclude that the abundance of mountain goats has increased for more than a decade, and if the recent average rate of population growth were sustained, the population would increase by 45 percent over the next 5 years.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Channel-planform evolution in four rivers of Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A.: The roles of physical drivers and trophic cascades

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A., to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors—excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago—are the dominant controls on channel planform of these gravel-bed rivers. We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers have widened significantly in recent decades, consistent with increased flood activity since the 1970s. Channel planform also reflects sediment-supply changes, evident from landslide response on the Elwha River. We surmise that the Hoh River, which shows a multi-decadal trend toward greater braiding, is adjusting to increased sediment supply associated with rapid glacial retreat. In this sediment-routing system with high connectivity, such climate-driven signals appear to propagate downstream without being buffered substantially by sediment storage. Legacy effects of anthropogenic modification likely also affect the Quinault River planform. We infer no correspondence between channel geomorphic evolution and elk abundance, suggesting that trophic-cascade effects in this setting are subsidiary to physical controls on channel morphology. Our findings differ from previous interpretations of Olympic National Park fluvial dynamics and contrast with the classic example of Yellowstone National Park, where legacy effects of elk overuse are apparent in channel morphology; we attribute these differences to hydrologic regime and large-wood availability.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Landscape-scale habitat selection by fishers translocated to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington

The fisher was extirpated from much of the Pacific Northwestern United States during the mid- to late-1900s and is now proposed for federal listing as a threatened species in all or part of its west coast range. Following the translocation of 90 fishers from central British Columbia, Canada, to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State from 2008 to 2010, we investigated the landscape-scale habitat selection of reintroduced fishers across a broad range of forest ages and disturbance histories, providing the first information on habitat relationships of newly reintroduced fishers in coastal coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest. We developed 17 a priori models to evaluate several habitat-selection hypotheses based on premises of habitat models used to forecast habitat suitability for the reintroduced population. Further, we hypothesized that female fishers, because of their smaller body size than males, greater vulnerability to predation, and specific reproductive requirements, would be more selective than males for mid- to late-seral forest communities, where complex forest structural elements provide secure foraging, resting, and denning sites. We assessed 11 forest structure and landscape characteristics within the home range core-areas used by 19 females and 12 males and within randomly placed pseudo core areas that represented available habitats. We used case-controlled logistic regression to compare the characteristics of used and pseudo core areas and to assess selection by male and female fishers. Females were more selective of core area placement than males. Fifteen of 19 females (79%) and 5 of 12 males (42%) selected core areas within federal lands that encompassed primarily forests with an overstory of mid-sized or large trees. Male fishers exhibited only weak selection for core areas dominated by forests with an overstory of small trees, primarily on land managed for timber production or at high elevations. The amount of natural open area best distinguished the use of core areas between males and females, with females using substantially less natural open area than males. Although sex-specific selection has been suspected for fishers, we identified factors that distinguish the selection of core areas by females from those of males, information which will be valuable to managers planning reintroductions or providing suitable habitat to promote fisher recovery in the Pacific Northwest.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of fisher (Pekania pennanti) restoration in Olympic National Park and the Olympic Recovery Area: 2014 annual progress report

With the translocation and release of 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia to Olympic National Park during 2008–2010, the National Park Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife accomplished the first phase of fisher restoration in Washington State. Beginning in 2013, we initiated a new research project to determine the current status of fishers on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula 3–5 years after the releases and evaluate the short-term success of the restoration program. Objectives of the study are to determine the current distribution of fishers and proportion of the recovery area that is currently occupied by fishers, determine several genetic characteristics of the reintroduced population, and determine reproductive success of the founding animals through genetic studies. During 2014, we continued working with a broad coalition of cooperating agencies, tribes, and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) to collect data on fisher distribution and genetics using noninvasive sampling methods. The primary sampling frame consisted of 157 24-square-kilometer hexagons (hexes) distributed across all major land ownerships within the Olympic Peninsula target survey area. In 2014 we expanded the study by adding 58 more hexes to an expanded study area in response to incidental fisher observations outside of the target area obtained in 2013; 49 hexes were added south and 9 to the east of the target area. During 2014, federal, state, tribal and NGO biologists and volunteers established three baited motion-sensing camera stations, paired with hair snaring devices, in 80 hexes; 69 in the targeted area 11 in the expansion areas. Each paired camera/hair station was left in place for approximately 6 weeks, with three checks on 2-week intervals. We documented fisher presence in 5 of the 80 hexagons, and identified 5 different fishers through a combination of microsatellite DNA analyses and camera detections. All fisher detections were in the target area. These 5 individuals included 2 of the original founding population of 90, 1 of the 2 rescued and rehabilitated kits that were released in 2010, and 1 new recruit to the population (1 individual was not identified). Additionally, we identified more than 40 other species of wildlife at the baited camera stations. We also obtained eight incidental fisher observations through photographs and carcass retrieval. During 2015, we plan to sample 75 hexagons in the target area and 12 in the expansion area. We plan to sample all unsampled accessible hexes in the target area (26 hexes), and re-sample accessible hexes sampled in 2013 (49 hexes).

Washington↗
USGS2014

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

British Columbia;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2013

A hybrid double-observer sightability model for aerial surveys

Raw counts from aerial surveys make no correction for undetected animals and provide no estimate of precision with which to judge the utility of the counts. Sightability modeling and double-observer (DO) modeling are 2 commonly used approaches to account for detection bias and to estimate precision in aerial surveys. We developed a hybrid DO sightability model (model M H ) that uses the strength of each approach to overcome the weakness in the other, for aerial surveys of elk (Cervus elaphus). The hybrid approach uses detection patterns of 2 independent observer pairs in a helicopter and telemetry-based detections of collared elk groups. Candidate M H models reflected hypotheses about effects of recorded covariates and unmodeled heterogeneity on the separate front-seat observer pair and back-seat observer pair detection probabilities. Group size and concealing vegetation cover strongly influenced detection probabilities. The pilot's previous experience participating in aerial surveys influenced detection by the front pair of observers if the elk group was on the pilot's side of the helicopter flight path. In 9 surveys in Mount Rainier National Park, the raw number of elk counted was approximately 80–93% of the abundance estimated by model M H . Uncorrected ratios of bulls per 100 cows generally were low compared to estimates adjusted for detection bias, but ratios of calves per 100 cows were comparable whether based on raw survey counts or adjusted estimates. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to DO modeling.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park elk monitoring program annual report 2011

Fiscal year 2011 was the first year of implementing an approved elk monitoring protocol in Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) National Parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) (Griffin et al. 2012). However, it was the fourth and second year of gathering data according to protocol in MORA and OLYM respectively; data gathered during the protocol development phase followed procedures that are laid out in the protocol. Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys; however the protocol estimates the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA is estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed using survey data from 2008-2010 (Griffin et al. 2012). That model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio-collars on elk. Consequently the majority of the effort in OLYM in the past 4 years has been focused on capturing and radio-collaring elk and conducting sightability trials needed to develop a double-observer sightability model in OLYM. In this annual report we provide estimates of abundance and composition for MORA elk, raw counts of elk made in OLYM, and describe sightability trials conducted in OLYM. At MORA the North trend count area was surveyed twice and the South once (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd). We counted 373 and 267 elk during two replicate surveys of the North Rainier herd, and 535 elk in the South Rainier herd. Using the model, we estimated that 413 and 320 elk were in the North and 652 elk were in the South trend count areas during the time of the respective surveys. At OLYM, the Core and Northwest trend count areas were completely surveyed, as were portions of the Quinault. In addition, we surveyed 10 survey units specifically to get resight data. Two-hundred and forty eight elk were counted in the Core, 19 in the Northwest, and 169 in the Quinault. We conducted double-observer sightability trials associated with 14 collared elk groups for use in developing the double-observer sightability model for OLYM.

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