P.M. Waser | Geology Reports

USGS2011

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture–recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use ‘contribution metrics’ to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source–sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system.

Arizona↗

USGS2004

Modeling interpopulation dispersal by banner-tailed kangaroo rats

Many metapopulation models assume rules of population connectivity that are implicitly based on what we know about within-population dispersal, but especially for vertebrates, few data exist to assess whether interpopulation dispersal is just within-population dispersal "scaled up." We extended existing multi-stratum mark-release-recapture models to incorporate the robust design, allowing us to compare patterns of within- and between-population movement in the banner-tailed kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys spectabilis ). Movement was rare among eight populations separated by only a few hundred meters: seven years of twice-annual sampling captured >1200 individuals but only 26 interpopulation dispersers. We developed a program that implemented models with parameters for capture, survival, and interpopulation movement probability and that evaluated competing hypotheses in a model selection framework. We evaluated variants of the island, stepping-stone, and isolation-by-distance models of interpopulation movement, incorporating effects of age, season, and habitat (short or tall grass). For both sexes, QAICc values clearly favored isolation-by-distance models, or models combining the effects of isolation by distance and habitat. Models with probability of dispersal expressed as linear-logistic functions of distance and as negative exponentials of distance fit the data equally well. Interpopulation movement probabilities were similar among sexes (perhaps slightly biased toward females), greater for juveniles than adults (especially for females), and greater before than during the breeding season (especially for females). These patterns resemble those previously described for within-population dispersal in this species, which we interpret as indicating that the same processes initiate both within- and between-population dispersal.

Ecology↗