Bootstrapping the lognormal distribution
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Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to P.H. Geissler.
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Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.
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The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an ongoing cooperative program sponsored jointly by the U.S. Fish and Wildife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Its main purpose is to estimate population trends of the many species of birds that nest in North America north of Mexico and that migrate across international boundaries. This survey provides information, both locally by ecological or political regions and on a continental scale, on (1) short-term population changes that can be correlated with specific weather incidents, (2) recovery periods following catastrophic declines, (3) normal year-to-year variations, (4) long-term population trends, and (5) invasions of exotics. The BBS also permits detailed computer mapping of relative abundance of each species, either year by year to show changes in distribution and relative abundance, or the average over a period of years. It provides base-line data with which more intensive local studies can be compared. For biogeographic studies it provides uniform sampling of bird populations by major physiographic regions across the continent. In conjunction with the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, it permits comparison of summer and winter distribution of species that winter in the United States. Most species of North American birds migrate across international boundaries, especially those shared with Canada, Mexico, and the Soviet Union. As part of our responsibility under treaties with these nations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has developed the BBS to monitor avian population changes so that any adverse trends can be detected early. This provides the opportunity to determine the reasons for any increase or decrease, to define geographic areas in which changes are greatest, to study correlations between avian population changes and land-use changes, and to make recommendations for controlling undesirable bird population trends. For example, the BBS can be used to detect and estimate the extent of losses resulting from widespread use of pesticides, and to reveal whether major population changes of a given species (e.g., Dickcissel) in certain States are related to a continental decline or are merely a result of population shifts within the breeding range. Effects of urban and suburban expansion are often reflected in the loss of forest interior birds. Population trends for 230 species as well as several avian genera and families are discussed and graphed in this report. For most of these species, regional and well as continental trends are shown. The three major regions discussed are the Eastern, Central, and Western, bounded by the Mississippi River and the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains. Additional graphs for certain States or physiographic regions are included for selected species of special interest. The following paragraphs summarize general trends in the major bird families. The native herons in general are maintaining their populations, whereas the exotic Cattle Egret continues its geographic spread and its steady increase. Waterfowl as a group are stable or increasing. Although most widespread species of hawks are on the increase, the rarer species show evidence of decline. Among the gallinaceous birds, the greatest change was a sharp drop in Northern Bobwhite as a result of the exceptionally cold winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic States. Killdeer populations, except for a minor decline during these two winters, showed strong increases except in the West. American Woodcock were poorly sampled by the BBS because they were relatively inactive during daylight. Common Snipe and the other common shorebirds that nest in the United States and southern Canada exhibited stable or increasing populations, especially in the Eastern and Central regions. Herring Gull counts varied dramatically and irregularly from year to year. Laughing Gulls increased along the Atlantic coast and Franklin's Gulls declined in the interior of the continen
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Se ofrece un nuevo metodo para computar las oscilaciones demograficas de las aves a lo largo de los anos. Con los datos suministrados por el proyecto 'Aves nidificantes en Norteamerica' , se indican en la Tabla 1 las pautas de cambio numerico de una serie seleccionada de aves holarticas.
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Four sampling and estimation methods for estimating the number of red-cockaded woodpecker colonies on National Forests in the Southeast were compared, using samples chosen from simulated populations based on the observed sample. The methods included (1) simple random sampling without replacement using a mean per sampling unit estimator, (2) simple random sampling without replacement with a ratio per pine area estimator, (3) probability proportional to 'size' sampling with replacement, and (4) probability proportional to 'size' without replacement using Murthy's estimator. The survey sample of 274 National Forest compartments (1000 acres each) constituted a superpopulation from which simulated stratum populations were selected with probability inversely proportional to the original probability of selection. Compartments were originally sampled with probabilities proportional to the probabilities that the compartments contained woodpeckers ('size'). These probabilities were estimated with a discriminant analysis based on tree species and tree age. The ratio estimator would have been the best estimator for this survey based on the mean square error. However, if more accurate predictions of woodpecker presence had been available, Murthy's estimator would have been the best. A subroutine to calculate Murthy's estimates is included; it is computationally feasible to analyze up to 10 samples per stratum.
A nationwide State/Federal cooperative study was initiated in 1978 to examine effects of September hunting on mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) nesting. This study was designed to (1) determine the proportion of the annual total of dove nesting activity and production that occurs in September and October, and (2) determine if survival rates of mourning dove eggs and nestlings are lower in areas where early September dove hunting is permitted compared to areas where it is prohibited. During 1979 and 1980, 6,950 active nests were followed to obtain data on nesting patterns. Nest initiation was estimated both by backdating from hatch dates and by the numbers of nests found for the first time. The nationwide percent of the annual total of nests that were initiated in September and October was 1.0% based on backdating hatch dates and 2.7% based on nests found for the first time. Nesting activity was measured by numbers of eggs and nestlings present in weekly counts. Nationally, 4.5% of the annual total of nesting activity occurred in September and October. The observed period when 80% of the nests were active, based on hatch dates, lasted from April 22 to September 4. The measure of production used in this study was numbers of young fledged. Nationally, 10.3% of all observed fledging occurred in September and October. A decline in nests found in the latter half of the nesting season preceded the September 1 start of hunting. From this we concluded that the reduction in nesting activity at the end of the season is a natural phenomenon and not caused by hunting disturbance. In a separate part of this study, we estimated survival rates in hunted and nonhunted sections from data on 668 nests. The estimated daily survival rates for individual eggs and nestlings were 95.8% in the nonhunted and 95.0% in the hunted sections; the corresponding fledging rates were 33% and 26%, respectively. The fledging rates are lower because they are the daily survival rates operating over a 26-day nesting period. Neither differences in survival nor fledging rates between nonhunted and hunted sections were found to be statistically significant (p> 0.05). We determined that the statistical test was powerful enough to detect a reduction due to hunting from a hypothetical 96.0% to 94.2% in daily nestling survival rates (from 35% to 21% fledging rates) with 80% probability. An undetected reduction in fledging rate of that magnitude would probably reduce the overall fledging rate by less than 1 percentage point, because only a small proportion of the nesting doves is exposed to hunting for the full 26 day nesting cycle. In conclusion, we found that only a small proportion of total annual nesting attempts was exposed to hunting. There was no statistically significant difference in survival rates in sections where hunting was permitted compared to sections where it was prohibited. We concluded from this study that dove hunting under current regulations has no substantial effect on recruitment of fledglings into the mourning dove population.
Shooter and shotshell effectiveness were tested during the 1979 waterfowl season at the Schell-Osage Wildlife Management Area (WMA), Missouri. Hunters who participated in the study bagged 1,967 ducks with 10,587 shots. No significant differences in bagging, crippling, or missing rates were measured among 4 Winchester 12 gauge loads: #4 buffered and unbuffered lead and #4 and #2 steel. Shooter effectiveness declined as distance increased. Crippling rates were not influenced by distance. Hunters reported good shotshell performance for all shells but indicated negative attitudes toward steel shot.
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One of the major purposes of bird population studies is to document changes in population size over a period of years. The traditional method used in Europe and North America to detect population change is to calculate annual ratios. However, this method can produce spurious results when ratios are accumulated over many years. Consequently, new methods of computing trends are needed. Several new methods of estimating population trends are developed and illustrated with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Each method is compared in terms of its assumptions, biases, and limitations. On the basis of these comparisons we recommend one method that we feel most accurately detects true population trends. Both the biological and statistical justifications for the model selection are presented. Trends estimated with this model are then presented for two species.