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P.A. Reasenberg

Publications and source records attributed to P.A. Reasenberg.

18 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2005

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

Nature↗
USGS2005

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

California↗
USGS2003

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' ( WGCEP, 1999 ; WGCEP, 2002 ) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP ( 1988 ), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP ( 1999 ) and WGCEP ( 2002 ), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP ( 1990 ), WGCEP ( 1999 ), and WGCEP ( 2002 ), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP ( 2002 ).

California↗
USGS2003

Observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations

We examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments. Our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range (within the aftershock zone), complementing published studies of long-range triggering. Our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions. Long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction. Therefore, we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically, with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation. Bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive, and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity. We compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes (M 5.7 to M 8.1) that occurred in California and Idaho in the United States, the Gulf of Aqaba, Syria, Guatemala, China, New Guinea, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Antarctica. Nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive, unilateral ruptures. Of these nine, seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction. The two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable-magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results. Similar (but weaker) correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied. Although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity, it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus. For several of the directive earthquakes, we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2002

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the landers and hector mine earthquakes

The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory 'dynamic' deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake1-6. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes7. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.

Nature↗
USGS1999

Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were undamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50–100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was undamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1999

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ≥ 6 and M ≥ 7 mainshocks and M ≥ 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ∼20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ∼2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large ( M ≥ 8) earthquake following a potential ( M ≥ 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform distribution over the range of observation.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1999

Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS1998

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1995

Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California

Earthquakes induce changes in static stress on neighbouring faults that may delay, hasten or even trigger subsequent earthquakes 1–10 . The length of time over which such effects persist has a bearing on the potential contribution of stress analyses to earthquake hazard assessment, but is presently unknown. Here we use an elastic half-space model 11 to estimate the static stress changes generated by damaging (magnitude M ≥5) earthquakes in southern California over the past 26 years, and to investigate the influence of these changes on subsequent earthquake activity. We find that, in the 1.5-year period following a M ≥5 earthquake, any subsequent nearby M ≥5 earthquake almost always ruptures a fault that is loaded towards failure by the first earthquake. After this period, damaging earthquakes are equally likely to rupture loaded and relaxed faults. Our results suggest that there is a short period of time following a damaging earthquake in southern California in which simple Coulomb failure stress models could be used to identify regions of increased seismic hazard.

California↗
USGS1993

Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

California↗
USGS1992

Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake perturbed the static stress field over a large area of central California. The pattern of stress changes on major faults in the region predicted by models of the earthquake's dislocation agrees closely with changes in the regional seismicity rate after the earthquake. The agreement is best for models with low values of the coefficient of friction (0.1 ≤ μ ≤ 0.3) on Bay Area faults. Both the stress models and measurements suggest that stresses were increased on the San Andreas fault north of the Loma Prieta rupture, but decreased slightly on the Hayward fault. This relaxation does not warrant lower probability estimates for large earthquakes on the Hayward fault in the next 30 years, however.

California↗
USGS1988

Statistical methods for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns

We propose a statistical model and a technique for objective recognition of one of the most commonly cited seismicity patterns:microearthquake quiescence. We use a Poisson process model for seismicity and define a process with quiescence as one with a particular type of piece-wise constant intensity function. From this model, we derive a statistic for testing stationarity against a 'quiescence' alternative. The large-sample null distribution of this statistic is approximated from simulated distributions of appropriate functionals applied to Brownian bridge processes. We point out the restrictiveness of the particular model we propose and of the quiescence idea in general. The fact that there are many point processes which have neither constant nor quiescent rate functions underscores the need to test for and describe nonuniformity thoroughly. We advocate the use of the quiescence test in conjunction with various other tests for nonuniformity and with graphical methods such as density estimation. ideally these methods may promote accurate description of temporal seismicity distributions and useful characterizations of interesting patterns. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1988

Precursory seismic quiescence: A preliminary assessment of the hypothesis

Numerous cases of precursory seismic quiescence have been reported in recent years. Some investigators have interpreted these observations as evidence that seismic quiescence is a somewhat reliable precursor to moderate or large earthquakes. However, because failures of the pattern to predict earthquakes may not, in general, be reported, and because numerous earthquakes are not preceded by quiescence, the validity and reliability of the quiescence precursor have not been established. We have analyzed the seismicity rate prior to, and in the source region of, 37 shallow earthquakes (M 5.3-7.0) in central California and Japan for patterns of rate fluctuation, especially precursory quiescence. Nonuniformity in rate for these pre-mainshock sequences is relatively high, and numerous intervals with significant (p<0.10) extrema in rate are observed in some of the sequences. In other sequences, however, the rate remains within normal limits up to the time of the mainshock. Overall, in terms of an observational basis for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, no evidence is found in the cases studied for a systematic, widespread or reliable pattern of quiescence prior to the mainshocks. In earthquake sequences comprising full seismic cycles for 5 sets of (M 3.7-5.1) repeat earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Bear Valley, California, the seismicity rates are found to be uniform. A composite of the estimated rate fluctuations for the sequences, normalized to the length of the seismic cycle, reveals a weak pattern of a low rate in the first third of the cycle, and a high rate in the last few months. While these observations are qualitative, they may represent weak expressions of physical processes occurring in the source region over the seismic cycle. Re-examination of seismicity rate fluctuations in volumes along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault specified by Wyss and Burford (1985) qualitatively confirms the existence of low-rate intervals in volumes 361, 386, 382, 372 and 401. However, only the quiescence in volume 386 is found by the present study to be statistically significant. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗