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P.A. Conrads

Publications and source records attributed to P.A. Conrads.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Using "big data" to optimally model hydrology and water quality across expansive regions

This paper describes a new divide and conquer approach that leverages big environmental data, utilizing all available categorical and time-series data without subjectivity, to empirically model hydrologic and water-quality behaviors across expansive regions. The approach decomposes large, intractable problems into smaller ones that are optimally solved; decomposes complex signals into behavioral components that are easier to model with "sub- models"; and employs a sequence of numerically optimizing algorithms that include time-series clustering, nonlinear, multivariate sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks, and classification for selecting the best sub-models to make predictions at new sites. This approach has many advantages over traditional modeling approaches, including being faster and less expensive, more comprehensive in its use of available data, and more accurate in representing a system's physical processes. This paper describes the application of the approach to model groundwater levels in Florida, stream temperatures across Western Oregon and Wisconsin, and water depths in the Florida Everglades. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Characterizing mercury concentrations and fluxes in a Coastal Plain watershed: Insights from dynamic modeling and data

Mercury (Hg) is one of the leading water quality concerns in surface waters of the United States. Although watershed-scale Hg cycling research has increased in the past two decades, advances in modeling watershed Hg processes in diverse physiographic regions, spatial scales, and land cover types are needed. The goal of this study was to assess Hg cycling in a Coastal Plain system using concentrations and fluxes estimated by multiple watershed-scale models with distinct mathematical frameworks reflecting different system dynamics. We simulated total mercury (Hg T , the sum of filtered and particulate forms) concentrations and fluxes from a Coastal Plain watershed (McTier Creek) using three watershed Hg models and an empirical load model. Model output was compared with observed in-stream Hg T . We found that shallow subsurface flow is a potentially important transport mechanism of particulate Hg T during periods when connectivity between the uplands and surface waters is maximized. Other processes (e.g., stream bank erosion, sediment re-suspension) may increase particulate Hg T in the water column. Simulations and data suggest that variable source area (VSA) flow and lack of rainfall interactions with surface soil horizons result in increased dissolved Hg T concentrations unrelated to DOC mobilization following precipitation events. Although flushing of DOC-Hg T complexes from surface soils can also occur during this period, DOC-complexed Hg T becomes more important during base flow conditions. TOPLOAD simulations highlight saturated subsurface flow as a primary driver of daily Hg T loadings, but shallow subsurface flow is important for Hg T loads during high-flow events. Results suggest limited seasonal trends in Hg T dynamics.

South Carolina↗
USGS2003

Living with a large reduction in permited loading by using a hydrograph-controlled release scheme

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand for the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway system near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, mandated a 60-percent reduction in point-source loading. For waters with a naturally low background dissolved-oxygen concentrations, South Carolina anti-degradation rules in the water-quality regulations allows a permitted discharger a reduction of dissolved oxygen of 0.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L). This is known as the "0.1 rule." Permitted dischargers within this region of the State operate under the "0.1 rule" and cannot cause a cumulative impact greater than 0.1 mg/L on dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For municipal water-reclamation facilities to serve the rapidly growing resort and retirement community near Myrtle Beach, a variable loading scheme was developed to allow dischargers to utilize increased assimilative capacity during higher streamflow conditions while still meeting the requirements of a recently established TMDL. As part of the TMDL development, an extensive real-time data-collection network was established in the lower Waccamaw and Pee Dee River watershed where continuous measurements of streamflow, water level, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance are collected. In addition, the dynamic BRANCH/BLTM models were calibrated and validated to simulate the water quality and tidal dynamics of the system. The assimilative capacities for various streamflows were also analyzed. The variable-loading scheme established total loadings for three streamflow levels. Model simulations show the results from the additional loading to be less than a 0.1 mg/L reduction in dissolved oxygen. As part of the loading scheme, the real-time network was redesigned to monitor streamflow entering the study area and water-quality conditions in the location of dissolved-oxygen "sags." The study reveals how one group of permit holders used a variable-loading scheme to implement restrictive permit limits without experiencing prohibitive capital expenditures or initiating a lengthy appeals process.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS1996

Simulation of water level, streamflow, and mass transport for the Cooper and Wando rivers near Charleston, South Carolina, 1992-95

The one-dimensional, unsteady-flow model, BRANCH, and the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (BLTM) were calibrated and validated for the Cooper and Wando Rivers near Charleston, South Carolina. Data used to calibrate the BRANCH model included water-level data at four locations on the Cooper River and two locations on the Wando River, measured tidal-cycle streamflows at five locations on the Wando River, and simulated tidal-cycle streamflows (using an existing validated BRANCH model of the Cooper River) for four locations on the Cooper River. The BRANCH model was used to generate the necessary hydraulic data used in the BLTM model. The BLTM model was calibrated and validated using time series of salinity concentrations at two locations on the Cooper River and at two locations on the Wando River. Successful calibration and validation of the BRANCH and BLTM models to water levels, stream flows, and salinity were achieved after applying a positive 0.45 foot datum correction to the downstream boundary. The sensitivity of the simulated salinity concentrations to changes in the downstream gage datum, channel geometry, and roughness coefficient in the BRANCH model, and to the dispersion factor in the BLTM model was evaluated. The simulated salinity concentrations were most sensitive to changes in the downstream gage datum. A decrease of 0.5 feet in the downstream gage datum increased the simulated 3-day mean salinity concentration by 107 percent (12.7 to 26.3 parts per thousand). The range of the salinity concentration went from a tidal oscillation with a standard deviation of 3.9 parts per thousand to a nearly constant concentration with a standard deviation of 0.0 parts per thousand. An increase in the downstream gage datum decreased the simulated 3-day mean salinity concentration by 47 percent (12.7 to 6.7 parts per thousand) and decreased the standard deviation from 3.9 to 3.4 parts per thousand.

South Carolina↗