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P. Watts

Publications and source records attributed to P. Watts.

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Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Submarine landslides in the Santa Barbara Channel as potential tsunami sources

Recent investigations using the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institutes (MBARI) Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) "Ventana" and "Tiburon" and interpretation of MBARI's EM 300 30 kHz multibeam bathymetric data show that the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin has experienced massive slope failures. Of particular concern is the large (130 km2) Goleta landslide complex located off Coal Oil Point near the town of Goleta, that measures 14.6-km long extending from a depth of 90 m to nearly 574 m deep and is 10.5 km wide. We estimate that approximately 1.75 km3 has been displaced by this slide during the Holocene. This feature is a complex compound submarine landslide that contains both surfical slump blocks and mud flows in three distinct segments. Each segment is composed of a distinct head scarp, down-dropped head block and a slide debris lobe. The debris lobes exhibit hummocky topography in the central areas that appear to result from compression during down slope movement. The toes of the western and eastern lobes are well defined in the multibeam image, whereas the toe of the central lobe is less distinct. Continuous seismic reflection profiles show that many buried slide debris lobes exist and comparison of the deformed reflectors with ODP Drill Site 149, Hole 893 suggest that at least 200 000 years of failure have occurred in the area (Fisher et al., 2005a). Based on our interpretation of the multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection profiles we modeled the potential tsunami that may have been produced from one of the three surfical lobes of the Goleta slide. This model shows that a 10 m high wave could have run ashore along the cliffs of the Goleta shoreline. Several other smaller (2 km2 and 4 km2) slides are located on the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin, both to the west and east of Goleta slide and on the Concepcion fan along the western flank of the basin. One slide, named the Gaviota slide, is 3.8 km2, 2.6 km long and 1.7 km wide. A distinct narrow scar extends from near the eastern head wall of this slide for over 2 km eastward toward the Goleta slide and may represent either an incipient failure or a remnant of a previous failure. Push cores collected within the main head scar of this slide consisted of hydrogen sulfide bearing mud, possibly suggesting active fluid seepage and a vibra-core penetrated ???50 cm of recent sediment overlying colluvium or landslide debris confirming the age of ???300 years as proposed by Lee et al. (2004). However, no seeps or indications of recent movement were observed during our ROV investigation within this narrow head scar indicating that seafloor in the scar is draped with mud. ?? 2006 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Evaluating tsunami hazards from debris flows

Debris flows that enter water bodies may have significant kinetic energy, some of which is transferred to water motion or waves that can impact shorelines and structures. The associated hazards depend on the location of the affected area relative to the point at which the debris flow enters the water. Three distinct regions (splash zone, near field, and far field) may be identified. Experiments demonstrate that characteristics of the near field water wave, which is the only coherent wave to emerge from the splash zone, depend primarily on debris flow volume, debris flow submerged time of motion, and water depth at the point where debris flow motion stops. Near field wave characteristics commonly may be used as & proxy source for computational tsunami propagation. This result is used to assess hazards associated with potential debris flows entering a reservoir in the northwestern USA. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

Conference Paper

Theoretical analysis of tsunami generation by pyroclastic flows

Pyroclastic flows are a common product of explosive volcanism and have the potential to initiate tsunamis whenever thick, dense flows encounter bodies of water. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by pyroclastic flow by decomposing the pyroclastic flow into two components, the dense underflow portion, which we term the pyroclastic debris flow, and the plume, which includes the surge and coignimbrite ash cloud parts of the flow. We consider five possible wave generation mechanisms. These mechanisms consist of steam explosion, pyroclastic debris flow, plume pressure, plume shear, and pressure impulse wave generation. Our theoretical analysis of tsunami generation by these mechanisms provides an estimate of tsunami features such as a characteristic wave amplitude and wavelength. We find that in most situations, tsunami generation is dominated by the pyroclastic debris flow component of a pyroclastic flow. This work presents information sufficient to construct tsunami sources for an arbitrary pyroclastic flow interacting with most bodies of water. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by pryoclastic flow at Aniakchak Volcano, Alaska

Pyroclastic flows entering the sea are plausible mechanisms for tsunami generation at volcanic island arcs worldwide. We evaluate tsunami generation by pyroclastic flow using an example from Aniakchak volcano in Alaska where evidence for tsunami inundation coincident with a major, caldera-forming eruption of the volcano ca. 3.5 ka has been described. Using a numerical model, we simulate the tsunami and compare the results to field estimates of tsunami run up.

Geophysical Research Letters

Tsunamis generated by subaerial mass flows

Tsunamis generated in lakes and reservoirs by subaerial mass flows pose distinctive problems for hazards assessment because the domain of interest is commonly the "near field," beyond the zone of complex splashing but close enough to the source that wave propagation effects are not predominant. Scaling analysis of the equations governing water wave propagation shows that near-field wave amplitude and wavelength should depend on certain measures of mass flow dynamics and volume. The scaling analysis motivates a successful collapse (in dimensionless space) of data from two distinct sets of experiments with solid block "wave makers." To first order, wave amplitude/water depth is a simple function of the ratio of dimensionless wave maker travel time to dimensionless wave maker volume per unit width. Wave amplitude data from previous laboratory investigations with both rigid and deformable wave makers follow the same trend in dimensionless parameter space as our own data. The characteristic wavelength/water depth for all our experiments is simply proportional to dimensionless wave maker travel time, which is itself given approximately by a simple function of wave maker length/water depth. Wave maker shape and rigidity do not otherwise influence wave features. Application of the amplitude scaling relation to several historical events yields "predicted" near-field wave amplitudes in reasonable agreement with measurements and observations. Together, the scaling relations for near-field amplitude, wavelength, and submerged travel time provide key inputs necessary for computational wave propagation and hazards assessment.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth