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P. Ryan Jackson

Publications and source records attributed to P. Ryan Jackson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Re-examining the growing degree day minimum for grass carp spawning initiation in Lake Erie: Have we missed the mark?

Understanding the timing of life history processes of invasive fish species, such as adult aggregations during spawning, allows natural resource managers to optimize targeted population control efforts. Temperature-based estimates of the timing of spawning initiation for grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) exist from its native range, but have not previously been developed for grass carp reproduction in its invaded range in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. We accounted for differences among methods across studies and calculated cumulative growing degree days (GDD) for the dates of grass carp egg capture in Lake Erie tributaries (Sandusky, Maumee, and Huron rivers) during 2015–2024 and compared these values to the existing GDD base 15°C requirement estimate from the native range (633 GDD–15°C). The earliest egg detection in Lake Erie (Sandusky River) was 19 GDD–15°C or 361 GDD–5°C (latest egg detection was 2285 GDD–5°C from the Sandusky River), indicating that spawning was initiated up to 25 days earlier than would be predicted by the native range GDD. Moreover, spawning in Lake Erie tributaries occurred earlier than predicted for 58% of spawning events examined based on the native range GDD. The GDD values for spawning initiation in Lake Erie tributaries can be used to refine the timing of control efforts targeting pre-spawn and spawning adult fish, inform the timing of egg sampling, and provide linkages to existing early life stage models to infer the length of the growing season available for age-0 fish to reassess tributary suitability.

Ohio↗
USGS2026

On the importance of ichthyoplankton monitoring for invasive grass carp control in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) is an invasive herbivore observed in small numbers in the Laurentian Great Lakes since the 1980 s with records from all lakes except Lake Superior. Identification of diploid, age-1 + grass carp from the Sandusky River, a Lake Erie tributary, in 2012, prompted targeted efforts to evaluate the status of grass carp reproduction in the Lake Erie Basin. In 2014, researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Toledo began surveys to assess grass carp spawning in the Great Lakes, with the first fertilized eggs discovered in 2015 in the Sandusky River. Eight Great Lakes tributaries in the United States have been surveyed for evidence of grass carp spawning, identifying three confirmed spawning tributaries (Sandusky, Maumee, and Huron Rivers in Ohio). Initial work identified specific flow and temperature conditions that likely stimulate spawning. Egg and larval drift modeling estimated spawning locations based on egg development and flow characteristics, which helped removal crews locate and target spawning fish in the Sandusky River and later, the Maumee River. The research synthesized herein demonstrates the value of ichthyoplankton research to inform control of emerging invasive species and could inform management of other invasive carps with similar reproductive life histories, should they enter the Great Lakes.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2026

Drift and dispersion of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae for hypothetical spawning scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River

Invasive carp pose ecological and economic risks to North American freshwater systems. This study uses the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to model the drift of invasive silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae after hypothetical spawning in Pools 1–10 of the Upper Mississippi River. Although adult invasive carps have been detected in this region, no reproduction has been confirmed as of this publication. A total of 450 spawning scenarios were simulated, representing 5 water temperatures, 9 flows, and 10 spawning locations in the tailwaters of lock and dam structures. The study examined egg and larval positions at two key developmental stages: hatching and gas bladder inflation, when larvae seek nursery habitat. Under a wide variety of flow conditions and water temperatures, eggs spawned upstream from Lake Pepin (Pool 4) are likely to settle in the lake before hatching, possibly increasing mortality rates. Eggs that survive passage through Lake Pepin reach gas bladder inflation within the study area, except in scenarios with lower temperatures and higher flows. Conversely, larvae spawned downstream from Lake Pepin generally drift out of the study area before reaching gas bladder inflation, except in cases of higher temperatures and lower flows. These findings inform ichthyoplankton sampling strategies and management actions aimed at reducing invasive carp populations in areas likely to support recruitment.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Controlling invasive carp ichthyoplankton dispersion using a streamwise-oriented bubble screen: A proof-of-concept validation in a laboratory flume

Recent evidence of invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) reproducing in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes has highlighted the need for control efforts targeting multiple life stages. Initial attempts to control dispersal of downstream-drifting invasive carp ichthyoplankton (i.e., eggs and larvae) using an oblique bubble screen (OBS) revealed that nearly neutrally buoyant grass carp eggs and larvae enter helical-like motions driven by the OBS, preventing aggregation within a single capture location. To improve dispersal control methods for such early-life stage carp, we used a laboratory flume to investigate the efficacy of a streamwise-oriented bubble screen to facilitate their near-bank capture. Five early-life stages of grass carp were tested: live water-hardened eggs, pre- and post-gas bladder inflation larvae, dead larvae, and dead eggs (preserved in formalin solution and later rehydrated). A range of mean channel velocities (0.23, 0.45, and 0.75 m/s) was tested for all drifters. Capture percentages increased with increasing airflow. Preserved eggs, for instance, showed capture percentages up to 95 %, 87 %, and 69 % at low, medium, and high water velocities for the highest airflow rate, respectively, in contrast with the lower than 5 % capture measured for zero airflow cases. Symmetric secondary flow structures on either side of the bubble screen induced helical trajectories of drifters and facilitated their capture in net-arrays along each wall. Velocity data were used to estimate helical recirculation timescales, enabling calculation of optimal bubble diffuser and net-array lengths for desired capture rates. This study provides useful guidance for the design of effective systems to control dispersal of downstream-drifting ichthyoplankton of invasive carp in streams.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2026

Development and assessment of fluorescent-dyed, preserved invasive grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) eggs as surrogates for live eggs in transport and dispersal control experiments

Invasive species such as grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) pose substantial ecological threats to North American freshwater ecosystems. Understanding their early life stage behavior is critical for management efforts. From spawning to hatching, invasive carp eggs must remain suspended in the water column while drifting downstream for the best chance of survival. This highly vulnerable life stage is a potential target for population control to reduce recruitment. However, studying egg transport and potential dispersal control techniques is challenging, because the availability of live eggs and time period for experimentation are extremely limited. Additionally, accurately replicating the physical characteristics and transport mechanisms of fish eggs using surrogates in laboratory and field studies is not trivial. This study presents a novel method to create fluorescein-dyed, preserved grass carp eggs as surrogates for live eggs in transport and dispersal control experiments. This technique enables year-round studies of grass carp egg transport, offering managers a reliable tool for developing and testing dispersal control and passive sampling methods for invasive carp eggs. In this study, we rehydrate and dye preserved grass carp eggs in varying concentrations of aqueous fluorescein for a range of rehydration times, evaluate dye retention and egg visibility under ultraviolet light (UV-A), and measure diameters and settling velocities for comparison with live eggs. Eggs rehydrated in 0.100 g per liter fluorescein for 30 min maintain adequate brightness for up to 40 min in mixed conditions and exhibit mean settling velocities and densities similar to live eggs, making them ideal for laboratory experiments using quantitative imaging techniques.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2025

Efficacy of oblique bubble screen deterrents on redirecting live eggs and larvae of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) at different developmental stages

Invasive carp have severely damaged aquatic ecosystems in the USA, particularly in the Mississippi River Basin. Behavioral deterrents have been developed in the last few decades to control population expansion into new ecosystems. However, none of these deterrents are capable of controlling early-life stage carp, which have limited or no mobility during their drifting stage in rivers. Capturing eggs and larvae in large numbers warrants new methods due to their distinct physical and biological properties as well as their lack of behavioral response. We tested a novel method to redirect downstream drifting eggs and larvae for their efficient removal in streams using an oblique bubble screen (OBS) deterrent. We investigated the effects of mean water velocity and airflow rate on redirection of eggs, pre-gas bladder inflation (GBI) larvae, near-GBI larvae, and dead larvae. Although similar OBS configurations had shown high efficacy redirecting plastic spheres (egg surrogates) in previous studies, they underperform redirecting live eggs and larvae. However, distinct patterns were identified for eggs, pre-GBI, near-GBI, and dead larvae. A detailed hydrodynamic analysis showed that eggs closely follow the larger scales of motions created by the OBS, and that larvae can actively respond to turbulence cues. This study yielded new insights into the movement of early-life stage grass carp in a turbulent flow with strong recirculation, and provided important data to improve the design of bubble screen dispersal barriers for invasive carp management and population control.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of a carbon dioxide fish barrier through numerical modelling

The Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) is a potential route for the migration of aquatic invasive species from the Mississippi River Basin into the Great Lakes. Electric dispersal barriers were installed in the Chicago Sanitary Ship Canal, within CAWS, to prevent invasive fish from reaching the Great Lakes. Despite the high efficiency of these barriers, occasional maintenance events create a vulnerability that fish can exploit to access the Great Lakes. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) infusion system to deter fish during the maintenance of the electric barriers. An algebraic slip mixture model was implemented in the OpenFOAM solver to represent the underwater CO 2 bubble plume and predict the concentration of dissolved CO 2 in the canal. Simulations under three canal flowrates and two sparger systems were conducted assuming a constant gas flowrate. Numerical results indicate that, for all simulated conditions, the CO 2 concentration is not fully mixed creating passageways that invasive fish could potentially use to migrate upstream. Injecting 4-mm bubbles induces two large-scale recirculations that are expected to synergistically improve fish avoidance. On the other hand, injection of 20 μ "> μ m bubbles results on almost immediate dissolution with minimal effect on the flow pattern. To improve effectiveness, a gas pulse system was proposed and numerically evaluated. Based on the simulations, this system not only extends the operation of the CO 2 barrier but also increases efficiency creating CO 2 gradients that can promote a more responsive behaviour from fish. Moreover, the pulse concept mitigates potential effect of elevated CO 2 downstream from the treated area.

Illinois↗
USGS2024

Limiting downstream dispersal of invasive carp egg surrogates using a laboratory-scale oblique bubble screen

We conceptualize and test a non-intrusive barrier, comprised of an oblique bubble screen (OBS) oriented at an angle to the mean flow, to prevent the downstream dispersal of invasive carp egg surrogates. Three surrogates of different densities and diameters were tested. Secondary flows created by the OBS were tuned to redirect surrogate eggs to facilitate their capture. Surface particle image velocimetry and acoustic Doppler velocimetry were used to characterize secondary flows. We assessed the influence of airflow rate, OBS angle, mean flow velocity, and surrogate density on particle redirection. In general, redirection efficiency improves by increasing the OBS angle with respect to the cross-section. At a mean flow velocity of 0.75 metres per second (m/s), the OBS system redirected up to 60% (%) of positively buoyant particles (specific gravity SG = 0.9, and diameter d = 7.09 millimetres [mm]) and 40% of semi-buoyant particles (SG = 1.001, d = 3.1 mm). Negatively buoyant particles (SG = 1.04, and d = 5.90 mm) were redirected by the physical structure of the diffuser rather than by OBS-induced flow. The study shows that an OBS system can be used to effectively redirect carp-egg surrogates over a wide range of particle sizes and densities, allowing for selective targeting of undesired particles in streams.

Journal of Ecohydraulics↗
USGS2024

Reproduction of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the Maumee River, Ohio: Part 2—Optimal river conditions for egg and larval drift

This study uses a one-dimensional steady-state hydraulic model and the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) to model the drift and dispersion of grass carp eggs and larvae in the Maumee River, Ohio, for 180 scenarios representing different combinations of 10 river flows, 6 water temperatures, and 3 spawning locations. The FluEgg simulations were used to quantify in-river suspended hatching rates (the percentage of eggs that hatch within the river and in suspension) and in-river larval retention rates (the percentage of larvae that reach the gas bladder inflation stage within the river after hatching in suspension), and identify which scenarios produce the highest likelihood of recruitment. The simulations indicate that at low flows, in-river suspended hatching and larval retention rates in the Maumee River are limited by the capacity of the flow to keep fertilized eggs in suspension, whereas at high flows, the limiting factor is the distance available for the eggs/larvae to drift in the river. A wide range of scenarios result in eggs hatching within the river, but all larvae drift into Maumee Bay prior to the gas bladder inflation stage when flows exceed the mean annual flow. The simulations were assessed in the context of the hydraulic conditions that trigger spawning and maximize egg fertilization and the nursery habitat requirements for larval grass carp. The results indicate that the Maumee River, although suitable for grass carp spawning, may not be an ideal setting for recruitment unless Maumee Bay provides adequate nursery habitat for larvae.

Ohio↗
USGS2024

Reproduction of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the Maumee River, Ohio: Part 1—Spawning area identification using bidirectional drift modeling

Control of invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) populations in the Western Lake Erie Basin merits adaptive management guided by the best available science. Presently (2024), capture of mature grass carp in rivers during spawning season is most efficient, so knowing when and where grass carp are spawning is essential information for natural resource agencies. Using bidirectional drift modeling and grass carp ichthyoplankton samples captured in the Maumee River during the 2017–2019 spawning seasons, this study identified 12 probable grass carp spawning areas in the lower 96.5-kilometers of the Maumee River. These spawning areas were located both above and below the Grand Rapids/Providence low-head dams. Three areas showed evidence of multiyear use, while nine had multi-event use. Spawning activity had no definitive diel variation and occurred at an average photoperiod of 15.15 h. The maturation metric ADD15, or annual degree days above 15 degrees Celsius, generally exceeded the 655 threshold for spawning; however, some spawning occurred when ADD15 ≤235, indicating spawners likely matured in a warmwater discharge. The probable spawning areas were generally characterized by mean velocities between 0.4 and 2.1 m per second (with locally higher velocities possible), areas of high turbulence produced by dam spillways or bedrock outcroppings, channel constrictions, confluences, islands, and bridges with piers in the water. Spawning suitability indices (SSI), based on velocity, varied considerably between spawning areas and SSI models. These results could be used to inform control efforts and predict potential grass carp spawning locations in other rivers under threat of invasion.

Ohio↗
USGS2024

Reproducing age variability in grass carp egg samples from the lower Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, using an egg-drift model

Invasive grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) are currently reproducing in several tributaries to Lake Erie and threatening the Great Lakes ecosystem and fisheries. Grass carp are pelagic river spawners whose fertilized eggs drift downstream from the spawning site, developing as they drift. Variability in spawning time and location together with nonuniform velocities in natural rivers leads to egg age variability in field samples at downstream sampling sites. In this study, the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) model was used to simulate the transport of grass carp eggs collected in 12 samples at 9 sites in the lower Sandusky River (Ohio, USA) on July 12, 2017, to replicate the observed variability in egg-age distributions present in field samples. The variability in egg ages in virtual samples compare well to field samples. The most plausible explanations for differences between virtual and field samples are the existence of multiple spawning locations, including a spawning area approximately 8 kilometers upstream from the river mouth, and idealized flow fields derived from a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Despite multiple sources of uncertainty and the deficiency in prescribing detailed spawning activities in the simulations, the results validate the utility of FluEgg together with ichthyoplankton data to identify plausible spawning areas and interpret age variability in field samples. A comprehensive discussion of model limitations and ichthyoplankton sample interpretation provides guidance for those using drift models to inform management actions for control of invasive carp in North America and to protect and restore carp populations in their native range in Asia.

Ohio↗
USGS2023

Movement and behavioral states of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in response to a behavioral deterrent in a navigational lock

Freshwater ecosystems are some of the most affected by biological invasions due, in part, to the introduction of invasive carp worldwide. Where carp have become established, management programs often seek to limit further range expansion into new areas by reducing their movement through interconnected rivers and waterways. Lock and dams are important locations for non-physical deterrents, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), to reduce unwanted fish passage without disrupting human use. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the behavioral responses of common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) to non-physical deterrents within a navigation structure on the Fox River, Wisconsin. Acoustic telemetry combined with hidden Markov models (HMMs) was used to analyze variation in carp responses to treatments. Outcomes may inform CO 2 effectiveness at preventing invasive carp movement through movement pinch-points.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey invasive carp strategic framework, 2023–27

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research has supported management of Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (bighead carp), Mylopharyngodon piceus (black carp), Ctenopharyngodon idella (grass carp), and H. molitrix (silver carp), hereafter referred to collectively as invasive carps, for over a decade. This strategic framework identifies thematic research areas to guide funding decisions for USGS invasive carp research during 2023–27. The USGS will use this framework and input from research and management agencies to identify leading-edge research to advance control of these highly damaging invasive species.

Circular↗
USGS2023

USGS telemetry project

Tagging bigheaded carp (i.e., Bighead Carp and Silver Carp) and surrogate fish species with acoustic transmitters has become an invaluable management tool in the Upper IWW (i.e., upper Illinois River, lower Des Plaines River, and the CAWS). For example, movement probabilities between adjacent navigation pools need to be estimated to parameterize models, such as the SEICarP Model—a population model used in scenario planning by the MRWG to evaluate alternative management actions (Kallis et al. 2023). These movement probabilities are estimated from the telemetry data obtained from a longitudinal network of strategically placed receivers that detect bigheaded carp that have been implanted with acoustic transmitters (i.e., tagged). In addition, fish removal by contracted fishers has become the primary method of controlling bigheaded carp in the upper Illinois and lower Des Plaines rivers. Variable patterns in bigheaded carp distribution, habitat, and movement, influenced by seasonal and environmental conditions, make targeting bigheaded carp for removal and containment challenging and costly. Understanding these movement patterns for bigheaded carp through modeling and real-time telemetry applications informs removal efforts and facilitates monitoring and contingency actions based on fish movements.

Illinois↗
USGS2022

Uncertainty analysis of index-velocity meters and discharge computations at the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois, water years 2006–16

Monitoring discharge in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal is critical for the accounting done by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers of the diversion of water from Lake Michigan to the Mississippi River Basin by the State of Illinois. The primary streamgage used for this discharge monitoring, the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois (U.S. Geological Survey station 05536890), is operated by the U.S. Geological Survey as an index-velocity station and at the time of this study (water years 2006–16) had two continuous velocity meters (an acoustic Doppler velocity meter and an acoustic velocity meter) and a water-level sensor, among other instruments. Discharge is computed at the streamgage using an index-velocity rating developed by linear regression of the velocity meter values fitted to discharges intermittently measured with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. In this study, the uncertainties of the velocity meters and stage sensors were estimated using a type B (judgment-based) approach, and measured discharge uncertainties were taken from those provided by a common acoustic Doppler current profiler data processing software tool, QRev. The velocity meter uncertainties, expressed as standard deviations, were estimated to be about 2.5 percent of velocity except near zero, where they exceeded that fraction, whereas for the acoustic Doppler current profiler uncertainties, when converted to mean channel velocity, 2.5 percent of velocity was determined to be a lower bound. The estimated velocity meter and measured discharge uncertainties were compared to index-velocity ratings developed from regression analyses of two types: (1) those that allow specification of measurement uncertainties and (2) ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, which does not. Based on the linearity of the index-velocity rating and the approximate agreement of the distributions of the fitting and prediction velocities, the assumptions required for unbiased prediction by OLS regression were determined to be approximately satisfied. From the regression residuals, it was determined that the estimated measurement uncertainties are too small, too similar between acoustic velocity meter and acoustic Doppler velocity meter velocities, and possibly too strongly dependent on velocity. Large, non-Gaussian OLS regression residuals also were observed. The uncertainty of annual mean discharge computed using the different regressions also was considered and was determined to be strongly dependent on the assumed measurement uncertainty. Because the assumptions required for OLS regression to give unbiased and variance-maintaining predictions were determined to be approximately satisfied, the results of discharge computation using the index-velocity rating based on OLS regression were deemed to be reliable. These results indicate about 0.8-percent uncertainty in the computed discharge as measured by the coefficient of variation at the annual time scale when using the acoustic Doppler velocity meter and 1.2-percent uncertainty with the acoustic velocity meter. It may be possible to improve the accuracy of the computed discharge and its uncertainty by further examining the measurement uncertainties and addressing differences in the distributions of the velocities used in fitting the index-velocity ratings and those used in prediction. Although the index-velocity ratings and computed discharges presented in this study are similar to those used in computing the published discharge at the study streamgage, the values presented in this report are not intended to replace the published discharge.

Illinois↗
USGS2022

Circulation, mixing, and transport in nearshore Lake Erie in the vicinity of Villa Angela Beach and Euclid Creek, Cleveland, Ohio, June 10–12, 2019, and August 19–21, 2019

Villa Angela Beach, on the Lake Erie lakeshore near Cleveland, Ohio, is just west of the mouth of Euclid Creek, a small, flashy stream that drains approximately 23 square miles and is susceptible to periodic contamination from combined sewer overflows (CSOs; 190 and 189 events in 2018 and 2019, respectively). Concerns about high concentrations of Escherichia coli ( E . coli ) in water samples collected along this beach and subsequent frequent beach closures led to the collection of water-quality and water-velocity data in the nearshore area to gain insights into nearshore mixing processes, circulation, and the potential for transport of bacteria and other CSO-related contaminants from nearby sources to the beach. Synoptic surveys were completed by the U.S. Geological Survey on June 10–12, 2019, and August 19–21, 2019, to observe conditions during early and late periods of the summer season. This study follows several studies in this area. Data-collection methods for this study included deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle and use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler and a multiparameter sonde. Spatial distributions of water-quality constituents and nearshore currents indicated that the mixing zone near the mouth of Euclid Creek and Villa Angela Beach is dynamic and highly variable in spatial extent. Similar observations around the Easterly Wastewater Treatment Plant 1.5 miles to the southwest of Villa Angela Beach indicated a mixing zone that was likewise dynamic and highly variable in spatial extent. Observed circulation patterns during synoptic surveys in summer 2019 indicated that contaminants from CSOs in Euclid Creek and at CSO discharge points along the Lake Erie lakefront (as traced using specific conductance as a surrogate) tended to be transported differently depending on the magnitude and direction of winds and longshore currents. The southwesterly longshore current that was responsible for driving a recirculation pattern along the beach during a previous study in summer 2012 was not observed during the summer 2019 synoptic surveys. That was not surprising because continuous velocity data collected near Villa Angela Beach indicated that longshore currents with a northeasterly component occurred most (65 percent) of the time from June 12 to August 28, 2019.

Ohio↗
USGS2022

The role of hydraulic and geomorphic complexity in predicting invasive carp spawning potential: St. Croix River, Minnesota and Wisconsin, United States

Since they were first introduced to the United States more than 50 years ago, invasive carp have rapidly colonized rivers of the Mississippi River Basin, with detrimental effects on native aquatic species. Their continued range expansion, and potential for subsequent invasion of the Great Lakes, has led to increased concern for the susceptibility of as-yet uncompromised lotic and lentic systems in the central United States. Because invasive carp eggs and larvae must drift in the river current for the first several days following spawning, numerical drift modeling has emerged as a useful technique for determining whether certain river systems and reaches have the potential to support suspension-to-hatching survival of invasive carp eggs, a critical first step in recruitment. Here we use one such numerical modeling approach, the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg), to estimate bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) egg hatching success and larval retention in a 47.8-kilometer (km) reach of the multi-thread St. Croix River, Minnesota and Wisconsin, United States. We explore three approaches for obtaining the hydraulic data required by FluEgg, parameterizing the model with either (a) field hydraulic data collected within the main channel during a high-flow event, or hydraulic data output from a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model with both (b) steady, and (c) unsteady flows. We find that the three approaches, along with the range of water temperatures and discharge used in simulations, produce vastly different predictions of streamwise transport and in-river egg hatching probability (0% for field data, 0 to 96% for steady-state hydraulic modeling, and 1.8 to 65% for unsteady modeling). However, all FluEgg simulations, regardless of the source of hydraulic data, predicted that no larvae reach the gas bladder inflation stage within the study reach where nursery habitat is abundant. Overall, these results indicate that the lower St. Croix River is suitable for invasive carp spawning and egg suspension until hatching for a range of discharge and water temperatures. These results highlight the role of complex channel hydraulics and morphology, particularly multi-thread reaches, and their inclusion in ecohydraulic-suitability modeling to determine susceptibility of river systems for invasive carp reproduction. Our work also emphasizes the scientific value of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic models that can capture the spatial heterogeneity of flow fields in geomorphically complex rivers. This work may help to guide management efforts based on the targeted monitoring and control and improve invasive carp egg and larvae sampling efficiency.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗