Geology topics

Neal D. Niemuth

Publications and source records attributed to Neal D. Niemuth.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Phenological flexibility in nesting grassland birds over a half century informs timing of management

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

Nebraska↗

USGS2024

Informative priors can account for location uncertainty in stop-level analyses of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), allowing fine-scale ecological analyses

Ecological inferences are often based on the locations at which species are present, but many species records have substantial uncertainty in spatial metadata, limiting their utility for fine-scale analyses. This is especially prevalent in historical records such as museum specimens, and in some citizen-science data. For example, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has 55+ years of bird data from regular transects (“routes”) across the continent but was not designed to capture the spatial component of point count events, limiting analyses of species-habitat relationships for which it would otherwise be well suited. We present a new methodology for quantifying location uncertainty in BBS records using digitized estimated stop locations, deriving the corresponding environmental covariate uncertainty distributions, and incorporating this information into hierarchical species distribution models using informative Bayesian priors. This approach allows for estimation of species–environment relationships in a way that fully accounts for underlying spatial uncertainty. We quantify stop-location uncertainty in BBS data across the central United States, model bird–land cover relationships in the upper Midwest, and validate our method by comparing posterior land cover estimates to known covariate values for a subset of GPS-digitized stop locations. We provide code for implementing this method in R. Posterior land cover estimates (forest, grass/hay, and developed land cover), based on our informative priors, were highly correlated with known land cover values from GPS-digitized stop locations. Our approach thus makes it possible to responsibly leverage large historic and citizen science databases, such as the BBS, for fine-scale ecological analyses.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2024

Seasonal and breeding phenologies of 38 grassland bird species in the midcontinent of North America

Grasslands in the midcontinent of North America are highly imperiled, and grassland birds have suffered the largest bird declines of any terrestrial biome in North America in the last 50 years. Consequently, the conservation and management of grasslands, as well as their associated avian communities, are major priorities for the State, Provincial, and Federal agencies; non-governmental organizations; and private entities that influence the millions of hectares of grasslands in the midcontinent. Resource managers often deploy disturbances to grasslands (for example, grazing, haying, and burning) to maintain or enhance their quality or structure, but the timing of these disturbances has the potential to disrupt the nesting activities of grassland birds. In this report, we compiled two types of phenology information for 38 species of nonwaterfowl, grassland-nesting birds across four author-defined regions in the midcontinent of North America: (1) species- and region-specific arrival and departure dates from the eBird database, which indicate when a species may be assumed to be present in a region; and (2) reported dates of nesting activity for each species (start and end dates of nesting as well as total duration) from published bird distribution and occurrence books and breeding bird atlases, which indicate when nesting by a species may be assumed. This previously available but widely dispersed information, compiled for the first time, will aid resource managers and inform their decisions about the timing of disturbances while minimizing grassland management effects on nesting birds.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have experienced sharp declines over the last 60 years driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. In recent decades, modern climate change has amplified these pressures. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To understand the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we systematically reviewed published empirical relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. We used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. We found that grassland birds were likely to experience both positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation, with moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation potentially benefiting some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reducing abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (< 1 month or ≥ 1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life history strategies of various species, and species’ tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2023

Waterfowl and wetland birds

The future of wetland bird habitat and populations is intrinsically connected with the conservation of rangelands in North America. Many rangeland watersheds are source drainage for some of the highest functioning extant wetlands. The Central and Pacific Flyways have significant overlap with available rangelands in western North America. Within these flyways, the importance of rangeland management has become increasingly recognized by those involved in wetland bird conservation. Within the array of wetland bird species, seasonal habitat needs are highly variable. During the breeding period, nest survival is one of the most important drivers of population growth for many wetland bird species and rangelands often provide quality nesting cover. Throughout spring and fall, rangeland wetlands provide key forage resources that support energetic demands needed for migration. In some areas, stock ponds developed for livestock water provide migration stopover and wintering habitat, especially in times of water scarcity. In the Intermountain West, drought combined with water demands from agriculture and human population growth are likely headed to an ecological tipping point for wetland birds and their habitat in the region. In the Prairie Pothole Region, conversion of rangeland and draining of wetlands for increased crop production remains a significant conservation issue for wetland birds and other wildlife. In landscapes dominated by agricultural production, rangelands provide some of the highest value ecosystem services, including water quality and wetland function. Recent research has shown livestock grazing, if managed properly, is compatible and at times beneficial to wetland bird habitat needs. Either directly, or indirectly, wetland bird populations and their habitat needs are supported by healthy rangelands. In the future, rangeland and wetland bird managers will benefit from increased collaboration to aid in meeting ultimate conservation objectives.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Climate-induced shifts in grassland bird nesting phenology have implications for grassland management

Grasslands are among the most impacted ecosystems globally. In the midcontinent of North America, a > 80% loss of grasslands has made their conservation a major priority for resource managers. Grassland ecosystems evolved under periodic disturbances; consequently, grassland management often involves regular actions such as grazing, haying, or burning to maintain ecosystem integrity. The timing of such practices has direct implications on grassland ecology, agricultural economics, and survival and fecundity of grassland nesting birds (hereafter grassland birds). We conducted a meta-analysis on the nesting phenology of grassland birds throughout North America, focusing on nest-survival literature. We constructed a well-fitting model to predict median date of expected nest departure (hereafter fledge date) for grassland birds across the midcontinent. Predictions from our model demonstrate considerable spatial variation in median nesting phenology that is predictable using a spatially explicit spring phenology index. Median fledge dates were 8 or 13 days earlier in years of extreme weather conditions (dry or wet, respectively) than in years of average conditions. Species that generally nest in taller vegetation tended to have later median nest phenologies than those using shorter vegetation. Our results incorporate the most rigorous information available in the literature on nesting phenology of 36 grassland bird species and improve information available to managers about nesting phenology of grassland birds in the midcontinent of North America. Our predictions approximate the day when one-half of the nesting efforts would be complete for a given area within the midcontinent grasslands and can inform management and conservation decisions about the timing of management actions in grassland ecosystems.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2022

Limited land base and competing land uses force societal tradeoffs when siting energy development

As human populations grow, decisions regarding use of the world's finite land base become increasingly complex. We adopted a land use–conflict scenario involving renewable energy to illustrate one potential cause of these conflicts and resulting tradeoff decisions. Renewable energy industries wishing to expand operations in the United States are limited by multijurisdictional regulations in finding developable land. Interest groups entreat industries to avoid land for various reasons, including avoidance of prime wildlife habitat in accordance with an “avoidance-first” mitigation strategy. By applying a uniform set of rules for renewable energy facilities to the Prairie Pothole Region and portions of the Northern Great Plains, we evaluated the effects of regulations and avoidance of prime wildlife habitat on the amount of land available for development. In our scenario, existing regulations excluded 39% of the project area from potential development, with human infrastructure accounting for 30% (10–66% among states), whereas federally protected species accounted for < 1% at project area and state levels. Unregulated lands accounted for 61% of the project area, with conservation areas predicted as high-quality sites for breeding grassland birds and waterfowl and for migrating whooping cranes Grus americana accounting for 19% within the project area (6–27% among states). This model demonstrated a limited land base available for new development when accounting for regulations and concerns of a subset of societal interest groups. Additional interest groups likely will have different and competing concerns, further emphasizing the complexity of future land-use decisions as the available land base for development diminishes.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Opportunistically collected data reveal habitat selection by migrating Whooping Cranes in the U.S. Northern Plains

The Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ) is a federally endangered species in the United States and Canada that relies on wetland, grassland, and cropland habitat during its long migration between wintering grounds in coastal Texas, USA, and breeding sites in Alberta and Northwest Territories, Canada. We combined opportunistic Whooping Crane sightings with landscape data to identify correlates of Whooping Crane occurrence along the migration corridor in North Dakota and South Dakota, USA. Whooping Cranes selected landscapes characterized by diverse wetland communities and upland foraging opportunities. Model performance substantially improved when variables related to detection were included, emphasizing the importance of accounting for biases associated with detection and reporting of birds in opportunistic datasets. We created a predictive map showing relative probability of occurrence across the study region by applying our model to GIS data layers; validation using independent, unbiased locations from birds equipped with platform transmitting terminals indicated that our final model adequately predicted habitat use by migrant Whooping Cranes. The probability map demonstrated that existing conservation efforts have protected much top-tier Whooping Crane habitat, especially in the portions of North Dakota and South Dakota that lie east of the Missouri River. Our results can support species recovery by informing prioritization for acquisition and restoration of landscapes that provide safe roosting and foraging habitats. Our results can also guide the siting of structures such as wind towers and electrical transmission and distribution lines, which pose a strike and mortality risk to migrating Whooping Cranes.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2018

A full annual-cycle conservation strategy for Sprague’s Pipit, Chestnut-collared and McCown’s Longspurs, and Baird’s Sparrow

Sprague’s Pipit ( Anthus spragueii ), Chestnut-collared Longspur ( Calcarius ornatus ), McCown’s Longspur ( Rhynchophanes mccownii ), and Baird’s Sparrow ( Centronyx bairdii ) [hereafter, “the Species”] are North American grassland-obligate songbirds whose populations have experienced significant annual population declines and are the focus of increasing conservation concern. The purpose of this strategy is to summarize current knowledge of the Species and identify priority research, monitoring and conservation actions required to improve their population status. Grasslands are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world with historic losses of 61-70% converted to other land uses, primarily cropland agriculture. Losses continue, with current conversion in the northern Great Plains occurring several times faster than grasslands can be protected. The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan (PIF NALCP) estimates current global populations of 900,000, 3,000,000, 600,000, and 2,000,000 for Sprague’s Pipit, Chestnut-collared Longspur, McCown’s Longspur, and Baird’s Sparrow, respectively. Over the period of 1967-2015, these populations have declined at -3.1, -4.2, -5.9 and -2.2% annually for estimated total losses of 78, 87, 94 and 65%, respectively. Habitat associations of breeding birds, especially at the local scale, represent the majority of the existing scientific literature on the Species’ biology. Landscape-scale associations are more poorly understood, and few studies have linked habitat, at any scale, to population vital rates. Increasing effort is focused on nonbreeding season and very little is known about migration. Current knowledge identifies three primary threats: 1) loss of native grasslands, 2) degradation and fragmentation of remaining native grasslands, and 3) disturbance inconsistent with needs of the Species. Top priorities for future research include: identification of population limiting factors, links between breeding habitat and demographics, identification of migratory habitat requirements, and identification of conditions promoting winter survival. Implementation strategies must focus on the protection, restoration, and enhancement (i.e., management) of grassland communities. Most imperative is the protection of remaining native grasslands from conversion to other uses. Actions supporting grass-based agriculture on privately-owned, native grasslands are paramount. These include incentive-based tools to support livestock grazing that benefits both priority birds and healthy ranching communities, which in turn prevent the conversion of native grasslands to cropland. Where cropland conversion has already taken place, conservation partners should work to continue and improve programs such as the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to restore and maintain permanent native cover. This strategy adopts the PIF NALCP objective, which is to reduce the rate of the Species’ decline in the first 10 years, then stabilize and ultimately increase the 2016 population by 5-15% over the subsequent 20 years. Ongoing monitoring programs such as the Breeding Bird Survey, Integrated Monitoring of Bird Conservation Regions, and eBird are critical for informing broadscale demographic and geographic trends for the Species. However, to achieve PIF NALCP goals, there is additional need for monitoring that links habitat conservation accomplishments to population performance within a strategic habitat conservation framework.

Report↗