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Nathan Wood

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Wood.

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Assessing hazards and risks at the Department of the Interior—A workshop report

On February 27–28, 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey and Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management (OEM) hosted a workshop to gather input from DOI subject matter experts (SMEs), resource managers, facility managers, emergency managers, and law enforcement personnel. Workshop goals were to (1) determine how DOI Bureaus and Offices use risk information for strategic planning and decision-making; (2) understand what types of information are most useful to DOI Bureaus and Offices; (3) establish what data, information, and products are desired; (4) identify the most effective methods for delivery and visualization; and (5) collect ideas for future project directions. The workshop findings presented in this report will influence the development of risk-information products created by the Strategic Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Department of the Interior Resources (SHIRA) Project team.

Circular

California’s exposure to volcanic hazards

The potential for damaging earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and wildfires is widely recognized in California. The same cannot be said for volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the state about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. At least ten eruptions have taken place in the past 1,000 years, and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) national volcanic threat assessment identifies eight young volcanic areas in California as moderate, high, or very high threat. Of the eight volcanic areas that exist in California, molten rock resides beneath at least seven of these—Medicine Lake volcano, Mount Shasta, Lassen Volcanic Center, Clear Lake volcanic field, the Long Valley volcanic region, Coso volcanic field, and Salton Buttes—and are therefore considered “active” volcanoes producing volcanic earthquakes, toxic gas emissions, hot springs, geothermal systems, and (or) ground movement. The USGS California Volcano Observatory in Menlo Park, California, monitors these potentially hazardous volcanoes to help communities and government authorities understand, prepare for, and respond to volcanic activity. Although volcanic activity can sometimes be forecast, eruptions, like earthquakes or tsunamis, cannot be prevented. Understanding the hazards and identifying what and who is in harm’s way is the first step in mitigating volcanic risk and building community resilience to volcanic hazards. This report, which was prepared in collaboration with the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, provides a broad perspective on the state’s exposure to volcanic hazards by integrating volcanic hazard information with geospatial data on at-risk populations, infrastructure, and resources. This information is intended to prompt site- and sector-specific vulnerability analyses and preparation of hazard mitigation and response plans.

California

Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem

Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

Washington

Residential and service-population exposure to multiple natural hazards in the Mount Hood region of Clackamas County, Oregon

The objective of this research is to document residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards in the rural communities of Clackamas County, Oregon, near Mount Hood. The Mount Hood region of Clackamas County has a long history of natural events that have impacted its small, tourism-based communities. To support preparedness and emergency-management planning in the region, a geospatial analysis of population exposure was used to determine the number and type of residents and service populations in flood-, wildfire-, and volcano-related hazard zones. Service populations are a mix of residents and tourists temporarily benefitting from local services, such as retail, education, or recreation. In this study, service population includes day-use visitors at recreational sites, overnight visitors at hotels and resorts, children at schools, and community-center visitors. Although the heavily-forested, rural landscape suggests few people are in the area, there are seasonal peaks of thousands of visitors to the region. “Intelligent” dasymetric mapping efforts using 30-meter resolution land-cover imagery and U.S. Census Bureau data proved ineffective at adequately capturing either the spatial distribution or magnitude of population at risk. Consequently, an address-point-based hybrid dasymetric methodology of assigning population to the physical location of buildings mapped with a global positioning system was employed. The resulting maps of the population (1) provide more precise spatial distributions for hazard-vulnerability assessments, (2) depict appropriate clustering due to higher density structures, such as apartment complexes and multi-unit commercial buildings, and (3) provide new information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of people utilizing services within the study area. Estimates of population exposure to flooding, wildfire, and volcanic hazards were determined by using overlay analysis in a geographic information system. Population exposure to flood hazards is low (less than 10 percent of residents) and does not vary substantially between 100-year and 500-year flood-hazard scenarios. Moderate, moderate-to-high, and high wildfire-risk areas within the study region account for 72 percent of residents, 62 percent of employees, and 60 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites. Fifteen percent of businesses in the study area are in moderate-to-high or high wildfire-risk areas but these businesses represent 51 percent of the local workforce. A volcanic event at Mount Hood could directly impact up to 60 percent of residents in their homes and 87 percent of employees at their workplaces. The proximal volcanic-hazard zone alone includes 65 percent of employees, 80 percent of schools and community facilities, more than 60 percent of overnight visitors in peak seasons, and 82–100 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites during the summer and winter months, respectively. The number of day-use visitors to recreation sites in the region is greatest during winter months (averaging 129,300 people per month), whereas overnight visitors are greatest during summer months (averaging 34,000 per month). This analysis of residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards supports the development of targeted risk-reduction efforts in the region, while also expanding the discourse on characterizing and assessing population dynamics in tourist-frequented areas.

Oregon

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

California

Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards

Natural hazards threaten the safety and economic wellbeing of communities. These hazards include sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes, and slowly emerging, chronic hazards, such as those associated with climate change. To help public officials, emergency and other managers, the business community, and at-risk individuals reduce the risks posed by such hazards, the USGS Western Geographic Science Center is developing new ways to assess and communicate societal risk and resilience to catastrophic and chronic natural hazards.

Fact Sheet

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Open-File Report

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Florida

Stakeholder perspectives on land-use strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards: Sarasota, Florida

Sustainable land-use planning requires decision makers to balance community growth with resilience to natural hazards. This balance is especially difficult in many coastal communities where planners must grapple with significant growth projections, the persistent threat of extreme events (e.g., hurricanes), and climate-change-driven sea level rise that not only presents a chronic hazard but also alters the spatial extent of sudden-onset hazards such as hurricanes. We examine these stressors on coastal, long-term land-use planning by reporting the results of a one-day community workshop held in Sarasota County, Florida that included focus groups and participatory mapping exercises. Workshop participants reflected various political agendas and socioeconomic interests of five local knowledge domains: business, environment, emergency management and infrastructure, government, and planning. Through a series of alternating domain-specific focus groups and interactive plenary sessions, participants compared the county 2050 comprehensive land-use plan to maps of contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazard zones and projected storm-surge hazard zones enlarged by sea level rise scenarios. This interactive, collaborative approach provided each group of domain experts the opportunity to combine geographically-specific, scientific knowledge on natural hazards and climate change with local viewpoints and concerns. Despite different agendas, interests, and proposed adaptation strategies, there was common agreement among participants for the need to increase community resilience to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to explore adaptation strategies to combat the projected, enlarged storm-surge hazard zones.

Florida

Amount and Percentage of Current Societal Assets in Areas on Kaua'i, Hawai'i, within the 1992 Hurricane 'Iniki Storm-Surge Inundation Zone

The Pacific Risk Management 'Ohana (PRiMO) is a network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development, delivery, and communication of risk management-related information, products, and services across the Pacific Ocean (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Services Center, 2008). One PRiMO-related project is the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) initiative, which seeks to improve the understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity ('storminess') within the Pacific region and to develop a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies, and other decision-makers (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008a). One of the PRICIP information products is a historical storm 'event anatomy', which includes a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular event, as well as information about the event and its climatological context. The intent of an event anatomy is to convey the causes of an extreme storm event and the associated impacts in a format that users can understand. The event anatomies also are intended to familiarize users with the in-place and remotely sensed products typically employed to track and forecast weather and climate. The first event anatomy developed as a prototype and hosted on the PRICIP portal is for Hurricane 'Iniki (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008b), a Category 3-4 hurricane that made landfall on the south coast of Kaua'i Island on September 11, 1992, with estimated maximum sustained winds of more than 140 mph and gusts as high as 175 mph. Storm-surge inundation occurred on the southern and northeastern coast of Kaua'i Island. In an effort to increase the amount of available information on the Hurricane 'Iniki event anatomy of the PRICIP portal, representatives from the NOAA NCDC IDEA Center contacted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 for assistance in determining what current societal assets are in areas that were inundated by storm surge during Hurricane 'Iniki in 1992. This report contains data summarizing the amount and percentage of current societal assets on Kaua'i Island, Hawai'i, that exist in the historic Hurricane 'Iniki storm-surge inundation zone. Coupled with an array of information on the socioeconomic impacts of Hurricane 'Iniki and distributed through the PRICIP portal, the results of this effort will help managers and the general public to understand the current risks posed by extreme storms in the Pacific Basin.

Open-File Report

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are largely in businesses related to health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, reflecting businesses that cater to a growing retiree and tourist population. Community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies among 13 incorporated cities, 7 Indian reservations, and 4 counties. The City of Aberdeen has the highest relative community exposure to tsunamis, whereas the City of Long Beach has the highest relative community sensitivity. Levels of community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis are found to be related to the amount and percentage, respectively, of a community?s land that is in a tsunami-inundation zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Washington and help risk managers to determine where additional risk-reduction strategies may be needed.

Scientific Investigations Report

Spatial trends in marsh sediment deposition within a microtidal creek system, Waccasassa Bay, Florida

Marsh surface deposition, suspended sediment concentrations, tidal hydrodynamics, and marsh surface characteristics were measured within a tidal creek system of a west-central Florida, microtidal, open marine Juncus roemerianus marsh to examine the depositional relationship between a creek system and the surrounding marsh during nonstorm conditions. Results suggest that short-term marsh deposition is highly episodic with deposition showing an inverse relationship with marsh surface inundation. Deposition was greatest at marsh sites adjacent to secondary creek segments over all examined timescales. Variations in hydroperiod, time–velocity asymmetry, vegetation density, and sediment availability could not explain the observed differences in short-term deposition.

Florida

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in the State of Hawai'i

Hawai`i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future events threatens the safety and economic well being of its coastal communities. Although tsunami-evacuation zones have been delineated, what is in these areas and how communities have chosen to develop within them has not been documented. A community-level vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Hawaiian coast and to document variations in land cover, demographics, economic assets, and critical facilities among 65 communities. Results indicate that the Hawai`i tsunami-evacuation zone contains approximately 56,678 residents (five percent of the total population), 67,113 employees (eleven percent of the State labor force), and 50,174 average daily visitors to hotels (44 percent of the State total). With regards to economic conditions, the tsunami-evacuation zone contains 5,779 businesses that generate $10.1 billion in annual sales volume (both eleven percent of State totals), and tax parcels with a combined total value of $36.1 billion (18 percent of the State total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-evacuation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, child-day-care facilities and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and parks) and critical facilities (for example, fire stations). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White, Asian, or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Fifty-one percent of the households in the tsunami-evacuation zone are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-evacuation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, health services, and retail-trade sectors. Results indicate that community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 65 coastal communities in Hawai`i. Honolulu has the highest exposure, Punalu`u has the highest sensitivity, and Ka`anapali has the highest combination of exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the level of community-asset exposure to tsunamis is not determined by the amount of a community's land that is in tsunami-evacuation zones. Community sensitivity, however, is related to the percentage of a community's land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Hawai`i and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal communities and economic sectors of the State of Hawai`i.

Scientific Investigations Report

Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to Oregon coastal communities. Although a potential tsunami-inundation zone from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake has been delineated, what is in this area and how communities have chosen to develop within it have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Oregon coast and to document city variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to the tsunami-inundation zone. Results indicate that the Oregon tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 22,201 residents (four percent of the total population in the seven coastal counties), 14,857 employees (six percent of the total labor force), and 53,714 day-use visitors on average every day to coastal Oregon State Parks within the tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 1,829 businesses that generate approximately $1.9 billion in annual sales volume (seven and five percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $8.2 billion (12 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, adult-residential-care facilities, child-day-care facilities, and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and libraries), and critical facilities (for example, police stations). Racial diversity of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone is low, with 96 percent identifying themselves as White, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Twenty-two percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 36 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 37 percent of the households are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-inundation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, retail trade, manufacturing, and arts and entertainment sectors. Results indicate that vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 26 incorporated cities in Oregon. City exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards is highest in the northern portion of the coast. The City of Seaside in Clatsop County has the highest exposure, the highest sensitivity, and the highest combined relative exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the amount of city assets in tsunami-prone areas is weakly related to the amount of a community's land in this zone; the percentage of a city's assets, however, is strongly related to the percentage of its land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Oregon and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal cities and economic sectors of the state of Oregon.

Scientific Investigations Report