N. Wood | Geology Reports

USGS2009

Tsunami exposure estimation with land-cover data: Oregon and the Cascadia subduction zone

A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r s ), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.

Applied Geography↗

USGS2009

Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington

Although much has been done to understand, quantify, and delineate volcanic hazards, there are fewer efforts to assess societal vulnerability to these hazards, particularly demographic differences in exposed populations or spatial variations in exposure to regional hazards. To better understand population diversity in volcanic hazard zones, we assess the number and types of people in a single type of hazard zone (lahars) for 27 communities downstream of Mount Rainier, Washington (USA). Using various socioeconomic and hazard datasets, we estimate that there are more than 78 000 residents, 59 000 employees, several dependent-population facilities (e.g., child-day-care centers, nursing homes) and numerous public venues (e.g., churches, hotels, museums) in a Mount Rainier lahar-hazard zone. We find that communities vary in the primary category of individuals in lahar-prone areas-exposed populations are dominated by residents in some communities (e.g., Auburn), employees in others (e.g., Tacoma), and tourists likely outnumber both of these groups in yet other areas (e.g., unincorporated Lewis County). Population exposure to potential lahar inundation varies considerably-some communities (e.g., Auburn) have large numbers of people but low percentages of them in hazard zones, whereas others (e.g., Orting) have fewer people but they comprise the majority of a community. A composite lahar-exposure index is developed to help emergency managers understand spatial variations in community exposure to lahars and results suggest that Puyallup has the highest combination of high numbers and percentages of people and assets in lahar-prone areas. Risk education and preparedness needs will vary based on who is threatened by future lahars, such as residents, employees, tourists at a public venue, or special-needs populations at a dependent-care facility. Emergency managers must first understand the people whom they are trying to prepare before they can expect these people to take protective measures after recognizing natural cues or receiving an official lahar warning.

Washington↗