N. R. De Jager | Geology Reports

USGS2011

Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km 2 ) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

Illinois;Iowa;Minnesota;Missouri;Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Scaling the effects of moose browsing on forage distribution, from the geometry of plant canopies to landscapes

Landscape heterogeneity influences large herbivores by altering their feeding rates, but as herbivores attempt to maximize feeding rates they also create spatial heterogeneity by altering plant growth. Herbivore feeding rates thus provide a quantitative link between the causes and consequences of spatial heterogeneity in herbivore-dominated ecosystems. The fractal geometry of plant canopies determines both the density and mass of twigs available to foraging herbivores. These properties determine a threshold distance between plants (d * ) that distinguishes the mechanisms regulating herbivore intake rates. When d * is greater than the actual distance between plants (d), intake is regulated by the rate of food processing in the mouth. But when d * < d, intake is regulated by the rate at which the herbivore encounters new plants. Alterations to plant geometry due to past browsing could change the rate at which herbivores encounter and process bites of plant tissue, modify d * relative to d, and thus change intake rates and the distribution of mechanisms regulating it across landscapes. We measured changes in the geometry of aspen (Populus tremuloides) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea) saplings along gradients of moose browsing from 2001 to 2005 at Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. For aspen saplings, fractal dimension of bite density, bite mass, and forage biomass responded quadratically to increasing moose browsing and were greatest at -3-4 g-g.m-2.yr" 1 consumption. For balsam fir, in contrast, these same measures declined steadily with increasing moose browsing. The different responses of plant canopies to increased browsing altered d * around plants. In summer, d * > d for aspen saplings at all prior consumption levels. Food processing therefore regulated summer moose feeding rates across our landscapes. In winter, changes in bite mass due to past browsing were sufficient to cause d * < d for aspen and balsam fir. Therefore, travel velocity and food processing jointly regulated intake rate during winter. Browsing-induced changes in the small-scale geometry of plant canopies can determine intake rate at larger spatial scales by changing d * relative to d and, hence, which mechanisms determine intake rate, essentially altering how herbivores sense the distribution of their food resources. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Monographs↗