Geology topics

N. Nur

Publications and source records attributed to N. Nur.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Where the wild things are: Predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds (“hotspots”). We developed habitat‐association models for 16 species using information from at‐sea observations collected over an 11‐year period (1997–2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single‐species predictive models using a machine‐learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single‐species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas (“core areas”) to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine‐scale information for focal areas.

California↗

USGS2006

Environmental threats to tidal-marsh vertebrates of the San Francisco Bay estuary

The San Francisco Bay and delta system comprises the largest estuary along the Pacific Coast of the Americas and the largest remaining area for tidal-marsh vertebrates, yet tidal marshes have been dramatically altered since the middle of the 19th century. Although recent efforts to restore ecological functions are notable, numerous threats to both endemic and widespread marsh organisms, including habitat loss, are still present. The historic extent of wetlands in the estuary included 2,200 km2 of tidal marshes, of which only 21% remain, but these tidal marshes comprise >90% of all remaining tidal marshes in California. In this paper, we present the most prominent environmental threats to tidal-marsh vertebrates including habitat loss (fragmentation, reductions in available sediment, and sea-level rise), habitat deterioration (contaminants, water quality, and human disturbance), and competitive interactions (invasive species, predation, mosquito and other vector control, and disease). We discuss these threats in light of the hundreds of proposed and ongoing projects to restore wetlands in the estuary and suggest research needs to support future decisions on restoration planning.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS1998

Status and trends of the ashy storm-petrel on Southeast Farallon Island, California, based upon capture-recapture analyses

We conducted a capture-recapture study on the population size and trends of the Ashy Storm-petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa ) on Southeast Farallon Island (SEFI), California, based upon data collected in 1971, 1972, and 1992. From March through August, birds were lured to fixed-site sampling locations using taped vocalization playback. Using program JOLLY, we estimated population size and evaluated statistical models using goodness-of-fit and Likelihood Ratio tests. On the southwestern slope of Lighthouse Hill, amidst prime breeding habitat, numbers of breeding birds decreased from 1,271 ± 140 (x ± SE) in 1972 to 710 ± 117 in 1992, a decline of 44% (approximate 95% CI = 22-66% decline; λ = -2.8% per annum); for a variety of reasons, we consider this to be the most reliable indicator of population change. In 1971, on a portion of SEFI relatively disjunct from the sampling area in 1972, 2,131 ± 322 breeding birds were estimated. To produce an overall early 1970s estimate with which to compare to 1992, we summed population estimates from 1971 and 1972. An overall value of 6,461 birds, of which 3,402 (53%) were breeders, was obtained for the early period. In 1992, the overall population in roughly the same area was estimated at 4,284 ± 409 birds, of which 1,990 ± 408 (46%) were presumed breeders. These results, encompassing peripheral as well as more centrally located storm-petrel habitat, indicate an overall population decline of 34% and a comparable decline in breeding birds of 42% over the past two decades. However, oceanographic conditions varied between 1971-1972 and 1992, and reduced food availability in 1992 may have influenced colony attendance and breeding effort. Nonetheless, the apparent population decline over the past 20 years suggests that the species warrants management and/or additional protective status.

Condor↗