Geology topics

Moussa Guira

Publications and source records attributed to Moussa Guira.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Scenarios to assess the future water availability in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer for the Cache River and Grand Prairie Regions of Arkansas

The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of the Arkansas Groundwater Initiative, developed forecast scenarios using previously calibrated MODFLOW 6 groundwater models that focused on the Cache and Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Areas to assess the impact of future climate and water management strategies on the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. A Soil Water Balance model was used to forecast recharge and irrigation water use. The forecast scenario period was from January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2055, with monthly stress periods. Twenty scenarios were simulated and included seven alternate climate forecasts, five 13 general groundwater pumping reduction scenarios (round 1), and groundwater pumping reduction scenarios by crop type and for the Bayou Meto Water Management Project and Grand Prairie Area Demonstration Project (round 2). Declines in saturated thickness within the Cache Critical Groundwater Area were larger for 18 of the 20 scenarios as compared to outside of the Critical Groundwater Area. The largest average increase in saturated thickness inside the Critical Groundwater Area was 6.4 m which occurred for the round 1, 50 percent reduction scenario. Automatic reductions in groundwater pumping by MODFLOW 6 in the Cache simulation ranged from 0.02 to 13.1 percent of total groundwater pumping. For the Grand Prairie model domain, the average change in saturated thickness of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer inside the Critical Groundwater Area for the forecast period ranged between -6.6 to 1.7 m. The average saturated thickness of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer inside the Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Area declined for 16 of the 20 scenarios. The average reduction in requested groundwater pumping for all scenarios inside the Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Area was 25.1 percent, and the largest reduction was 46.5 percent.

ESS Open Archive↗

USGS2025

An inset groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of layering configuration on model calibration and assess managed aquifer recharge near Shellmound, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model. The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Mississippi↗

USGS2024

Inset groundwater-flow models for the Cache and Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Areas, northeastern Arkansas

The water resources in the Mississippi alluvial plain, located in parts of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, supports a multibillion-dollar agricultural industry that relies heavily on pumping of groundwater for irrigation of crops and aquaculture. The primary source of groundwater for agricultural-related pumping is the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, which has declined in storage for decades; secondary groundwater sources include the middle Claiborne aquifer and Wilcox aquifer system. Two areas in northeastern Arkansas that lie within the Mississippi alluvial plain, part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions, have been designated as Critical Groundwater Areas owing to decades of groundwater declines that resulted from past and current water use. The multidisciplinary Mississippi Alluvial Plain project, led by the U.S. Geological Survey, and funded by their Water Availability and Use Science Program, included objectives to develop numerical groundwater models in focus regions, including the part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of northeastern Arkansas. Two inset models were developed using the child model capabilities of MODFLOW 6, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Modular Hydrologic Model simulation software. Both models, called the Cache model and Grand Prairie model, simulated the groundwater system and surface-water/groundwater interactions for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and underlying Tertiary-age aquifers and confining units to the Midway confining unit. Each model was spatially discretized into 500-meter x 500-meter orthogonal cells on a grid with 5-meter constant-thickness vertical layers that represented the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and increasing thickness layers for the aquifers and confining units below the alluvial aquifer. The Cache and Grand Prairie models were calibrated with the PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother Version 5 and employed high dimensional parameterization schemes of 13,740 and 30,436 parameters, respectively. The Cache mean absolute residual for groundwater-level observations within each model domain for the priority well was 1.58 meters. Grand Prairie mean absolute residuals for the alluvial aquifer and middle Claiborne aquifer groundwater-level observations were 2.71 and 10.78 meters, respectively. The groundwater budgets for the Cache and Grand Prairie models were characterized by substantial outflows to irrigation wells, which constituted about 52 and 54 percent of all outflows, with the primary source of water to those wells being releases from unconfined aquifer storage.

Arkansas↗

USGS2023

An integrated hydrologic model to support the Central Platte Natural Resources District Groundwater Management Plan, central Nebraska

The groundwater and surface-water supply of the Central Platte Natural Resources District supports a large agricultural economy from the High Plains aquifer and Platte River, respectively. This study provided the Central Platte Natural Resources District with an advanced numerical modeling tool to assist with the update of their Groundwater Management Plan. An integrated hydrologic model, called the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model, was constructed using the MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Model code with the Newton solver. This code integrates climate, landscape, surface water, and groundwater-flow processes in a fully coupled approach. Model framework included 163 rows; 327 columns; 2,640 feet cell sides; and 3 vertical layers. A predevelopment model simulated steady-state hydrologic conditions prior to April 30, 1895, and a development period model discretized into 610 stress periods simulated transient hydrologic conditions from May 1, 1895, to December 31, 2016, using 170 biannual stress periods from 1895 to 1980, and monthly stress periods from May 1, 1980, to December 31, 2016. Calibration of the Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model involved two phases: a manual adjustment of parameters, followed by the automated calibration completed using BeoPEST that was facilitated by the employment of the singular value decomposition-assist features of PEST that specified 50 super parameters assembled from the 435 adjustable parameters and Tikhonov regularization. The average absolute groundwater-level residuals for model layers one, two, and three were 6.1, 12.4, and 7.4 feet, respectively. Calibrated horizontal hydraulic conductivity was about 70, 32, and 35 feet per day for layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The largest development period inflow to groundwater was recharge from deep percolation past the root zone, averaging 1,122,257 acre-feet per year (2.7 inches per year), and the largest outflow was to irrigation wells, averaging 693,171 acre-feet per year (10.2 inches per year for the Central Platte Natural Resources District). Other substantial groundwater outflows included evapotranspiration and base flow. For the total development period, there was a net change in storage of −122,393 acre-feet per year (−0.3 inch per year). The calibrated Central Platte Integrated Hydrologic Model was used to simulate eight different potential future climate and irrigation pumping conditions from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2049. Simulated future groundwater levels within the Central Platte Natural Resources District varied significantly between scenarios and locally, from 13.8 feet below to 7.6 feet above baseline 1982 groundwater levels. Most areas exhibited groundwater-level declines for the drought scenarios and rises for the alternate irrigation scenarios. Changes in scenario groundwater levels correlated with the relations between farm net recharge and irrigation pumping. Linear “first order second moment” techniques indicated that the uncertainty in projected groundwater altitudes was reduced by 15.33 feet through model calibration.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Groundwater availability of the Northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

Executive Summary The Northern High Plains aquifer underlies about 93,000 square miles of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming and is the largest subregion of the nationally important High Plains aquifer. Irrigation, primarily using groundwater, has supported agricultural production since before 1940, resulting in nearly $50 billion in sales in 2012. In 2010, the High Plains aquifer had the largest groundwater withdrawals of any major aquifer system in the United States. Nearly one-half of those withdrawals were from the Northern High Plains aquifer, which has little hydrologic interaction with parts of the aquifer farther south. Land-surface elevation ranges from more than 7,400 feet (ft) near the western edge to less than 1,100 ft near the eastern edge. Major stream primarily flow west to east and include the Big Blue River, Elkhorn River, Loup River, Niobrara River, Republican River and Platte River with its two forks—the North Platte River and South Platte River. Population in the Northern High Plain aquifer area is sparse with only 2 cities having a population greater than 30,000. Droughts across much of the area from 2001 to 2007, combined with recent (2004–18) legislation, have heightened concerns regarding future groundwater availability and highlighted the need for science-based water-resource management. Groundwater models with the capability to provide forecasts of groundwater availability and related stream base flows from the Northern High Plains aquifer were published recently (2016) and were used to analyze groundwater availability. Stream base flows are generally the dominant component of total streamflow in the Northern High Plains aquifer, and total streamflows or shortages thereof define conjunctive management triggers, at least in Nebraska. Groundwater availability was evaluated through comparison of aquifer-scale water budgets compared for periods before and after major groundwater development and across selected future forecasts. Groundwater-level declines and the forecast amount of groundwater in storage in the aquifer also were examined. Major Findings Aquifer losses to irrigation withdrawals increased greatly from 1940 to 2009 and were the largest average 2000–9 outflow (49 percent of total). Basin to basin groundwater flows were not a large part of basin water budgets. Development of irrigated land and associated withdrawals were not uniform across the Northern High Plains aquifer, and different parts of the Northern High Plains aquifer responded differently to agricultural development. For the Northern High Plains aquifer, areas with high recharge and low evapotranspiration had the most streamflow, and most streams only remove water from the aquifer. Results of a baseline future forecast indicated that groundwater levels declined overall, indicating an overdraft of the aquifer when climate was about average and agricultural development was held at the same state as 2009. Results of two human stresses future forecasts indicated that increases of 13 percent or 23 percent in agricultural development, mostly near areas of previous development, caused increases in groundwater pumping of 8 percent or 11 percent, and resulted in continued groundwater-level declines, at rates 0.3 or 0.5 million acre-feet per year larger than the baseline forecast. Results of environmental stresses forecasts (generated from two downscalings of global climate model outputs) compared with the baseline forecast indicated that even though annual precipitation was nearly the same, differences in temperature and a redistribution of precipitation from the spring to the growing season (from about May 1 through September 30), created a large (12–15 percent) decrease in recharge to the aquifer. For the two environmental stresses forecasts, temperature and precipitation were distributed about the same among basins of the Northern High Plains aquifer, but the amounts were different.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗