Geology topics

Michael N. Fienen

Publications and source records attributed to Michael N. Fienen.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Metamodeling for groundwater age forecasting in the Lake Michigan Basin

Groundwater age is an important indicator of groundwater susceptibility to anthropogenic contamination and a key input to statistical models for forecasting water quality. Numerical models can provide estimates of groundwater age, enabling interpretation of measured age tracers. However, to extend to national‐scale groundwater systems where numerical models are not routinely available, a more efficient metamodeling approach can provide a less precise but widely applicable estimate of groundwater age, trained to make forecasts based on predictor variables that can be measured independent of numerical models. We trained gradient‐boosted regression tree statistical metamodels to MODFLOW/MODPATH‐derived groundwater age estimates in five inset models in the Lake Michigan Basin, USA. Using high‐throughput computing, we explored an exhaustive range of tuning parameters and tested metamodels through cross validation, a 20% holdout, and a round robin approach among the five inset models withholding each inset model from training and testing on the held‐out inset model. Forecast skill—measured by Nash Sutcliffe efficiency—was high for age‐related responses in the 20% hold‐out case (ranging from 0.73 to 0.84). The round robin analysis provided the opportunity to explore extending to unmodeled areas and a greater range of skill indicated the need to evaluate when it is appropriate to apply a metamodel from one region to another. We further explored the ramifications of metamodel simplification achieved through removing predictor variables based on their estimated importance. We found that similar metamodel performance was achievable with a fraction of the candidate set of predictor variables with well construction variables being most important.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2018

Capture versus capture zones: Clarifying terminology related to sources of water to wells

The term capture, related to the source of water derived from wells, has been used in two distinct yet related contexts by the hydrologic community. The first is a water‐budget context, in which capture refers to decreases in the rates of groundwater outflow and (or) increases in the rates of recharge along head‐dependent boundaries of an aquifer in response to pumping. The second is a transport context, in which capture zone refers to the specific flowpaths that define the three‐dimensional, volumetric portion of a groundwater flow field that discharges to a well. A closely related issue that has become associated with the source of water to wells is streamflow depletion , which refers to the reduction in streamflow caused by pumping, and is a type of capture. Rates of capture and streamflow depletion are calculated by use of water‐budget analyses, most often with groundwater‐flow models. Transport models, particularly particle‐tracking methods, are used to determine capture zones to wells. In general, however, transport methods are not useful for quantifying actual or potential streamflow depletion or other types of capture along aquifer boundaries. To clarify the sometimes subtle differences among these terms, we describe the processes and relations among capture, capture zones, and streamflow depletion, and provide proposed terminology to distinguish among them.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty

To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2017

Generalized hydrogeologic framework and groundwater budget for a groundwater availability study for the glacial aquifer system of the United States

The glacial aquifer system groundwater availability study seeks to quantify (1) the status of groundwater resources in the glacial aquifer system, (2) how these resources have changed over time, and (3) likely system response to future changes in anthropogenic and environmental conditions. The glacial aquifer system extends from Maine to Alaska, although the focus of this report is the part of the system in the conterminous United States east of the Rocky Mountains. The glacial sand and gravel principal aquifer is the largest source of public and self-supplied industrial supply for any principal aquifer and also is an important source for irrigation supply. Despite its importance for water supply, water levels in the glacial aquifer system are generally stable varying with climate and only locally from pumping. The hydrogeologic framework developed for this study includes the information from waterwell records and classification of material types from surficial geologic maps into likely aquifers dominated by sand and gravel deposits. Generalized groundwater budgets across the study area highlight the variation in recharge and discharge primarily driven by climate.

Glacial Aquifer System↗

USGS2017

Depletion mapping and constrained optimization to support managing groundwater extraction

Groundwater models often serve as management tools to evaluate competing water uses including ecosystems, irrigated agriculture, industry, municipal supply, and others. Depletion potential mapping—showing the model-calculated potential impacts that wells have on stream baseflow—can form the basis for multiple potential management approaches in an oversubscribed basin. Specific management approaches can include scenarios proposed by stakeholders, systematic changes in well pumping based on depletion potential, and formal constrained optimization, which can be used to quantify the tradeoff between water use and stream baseflow. Variables such as the maximum amount of reduction allowed in each well and various groupings of wells using, for example, K-means clustering considering spatial proximity and depletion potential are considered. These approaches provide a potential starting point and guidance for resource managers and stakeholders to make decisions about groundwater management in a basin, spreading responsibility in different ways. We illustrate these approaches in the Little Plover River basin in central Wisconsin, United States—home to a rich agricultural tradition, with farmland and urban areas both in close proximity to a groundwater-dependent trout stream. Groundwater withdrawals have reduced baseflow supplying the Little Plover River below a legally established minimum. The techniques in this work were developed in response to engaged stakeholders with various interests and goals for the basin. They sought to develop a collaborative management plan at a watershed scale that restores the flow rate in the river in a manner that incorporates principles of shared governance and results in effective and minimally disruptive changes in groundwater extraction practices.

Groundwater↗

USGS2017

Community for Data Integration 2016 annual report

The Community for Data Integration (CDI) represents a dynamic community of practice focused on advancing science data and information management and integration capabilities across the U.S. Geological Survey and the CDI community. This annual report describes the various presentations, activities, and outcomes of the CDI monthly forums, working groups, virtual training series, and other CDI-sponsored events in fiscal year 2016. The report also describes the objectives and accomplishments of the 13 CDI-funded projects in fiscal year 2016.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Groundwater flow model for the Little Plover River basin in Wisconsin’s Central Sands

The Little Plover River is a groundwater-fed stream in the sand plains region of central Wisconsin. In this region, sandy sediment deposited during or soon after the last glaciation forms an important unconfined sand and gravel aquifer. This aquifer supplies water for numerous high-capacity irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells that support a thriving agricultural industry. In recent years the addition of many new wells, combined with observed diminished flows in the Little Plover and other nearby rivers, has raised concerns about the impacts of the wells on groundwater levels and on water levels and flows in nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands. Diverse stakeholder groups, including well operators, Growers, environmentalists, local land owners, and regulatory and government officials have sought a better understanding of the local groundwater-surface water system and have a shared desire to balance the water needs of the he liagricultural, industrial, and urban users with the maintenance and protection of groundwater-dependent natural resources. To help address these issues, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources requested that the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and U.S. Geological Survey cooperatively develop a groundwater flow model that could be used to demonstrate the relationships among groundwater, surface water, and well withdrawals and also be a tool for testing and evaluating alternative water management strategies for the central sands region. Because of an abundance of previous studies, data availability, local interest, and existing regulatory constraints the model focuses on the Little Plover River watershed, but the modeling methodology developed during this study can apply to much of the larger central sands of Wisconsin. The Little Plover River groundwater flow model simulates three-dimensional groundwater movement in and around the Little Plover River basin under steady-state and transient conditions. This model explicitly includes all high-capacity wells in the model domain and simulates seasonal variations in recharge and well pumping. The model represents the Little Plover River, and other significant streams and drainage ditches in the model domain, as fully connected to the groundwater system, computes stream base flow resulting from groundwater discharge, and routes the flow along the stream channel. A separate soil-water-balance (SWB) model was used to develop groundwater recharge arrays as input for the groundwater flow model. The SWB model uses topography, soils, land use, and climatic data to estimate recharge as deep drainage from the soil zone. The SWB model explicitly includes recharge originating as irrigation water, and computes irrigation using techniques similar to those used by local irrigation operators. The groundwater flow model uses the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW modeling code which is freely available, widely accepted, and commonly used by the groundwater community. The groundwater flow model and the SWB model use identical high-resolution numerical grids having model cells 100 feet on a side, with physical properties assigned to each grid cell. This grid allows accurate geographic placement of wells, streams, and other model features. The 3-dimensional grid has three layers; layers 1 and 2 represent the sand and gravel aquifer and layer 3 represents the underlying sandstone. The distribution of material properties in the model (hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, etc.) comes from previous published geologic studies of the region, updated by calibration to recent streamflow and groundwater level data. The SWB model operates on a daily time step. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to monthly stress periods with time steps ranging from 1 to 16 days. More detailed time discretization is possible. The groundwater model was calibrated to water-level and streamflow data collected during 2013 and 2014 by adjusting model parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, storage, and recharge) until the model produced a conditionally optimal fit between field observations and model output, subject to consistency with previously published geologic studies. Calibration was performed under both steady and transient conditions, and used a sophisticated parameter-estimation procedure (PEST) for the calibration process and to identify important model parameters. For the Little Plover River, the two most important parameters are the global recharge multiplier and the hydraulic conductivity of the stream bed. The calibrated model produces water-level and mass-balance results that are consistent with field observations and previous studies of the area. The completed model is a powerful tool for testing and demonstrating alternative water-management scenarios. Example model applications described in this report include simulating how the cumulative impacts of pumping and land-use change have affected average baseflow in the Little Plover River. Depletion-potential mapping represents a method for predicting which wells and well locations have the greatest impact on nearby surface-water resources. The completed model is publicly available, along with a companion user’s guide to assist with its operation, at http://wgnhs.org/littleplover- river-groundwater-model.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2016

Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area. The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique. The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value of 12.3 feet is about 3 percent of the total observed water-level range throughout the aquifer system. Streamflow observation data of base flow conditions were derived for 153 sites from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset Plus and National Water Information System. An average residual of about –8 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 21 cubic feet per second for a range of computed base flows of about 417 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 122 sites from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus. An average residual of about 10 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 34 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 568 flow measurements in the 31 sites obtained from the National Water Information System for a range in computed base flows of about 1,141 cubic feet per second. The numerical representation of the hydrogeologic information used in the development of this regional flow model was dependent upon how the aquifer system and simulated hydrologic stresses were discretized in space and time. Lumping hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2016

Potential effects of sea-level rise on the depth to saturated sediments of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Association to Preserve Cape Cod, the Cape Cod Commission, and the Massachusetts Environmental Trust, began an evaluation of the potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitudes and depths to water on central and western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures arising, in part, from the release of greenhouse gases likely will result in higher sea levels globally. Increasing water table altitudes in shallow, unconfined coastal aquifer systems could adversely affect infrastructure—roads, utilities, basements, and septic systems—particularly in low-lying urbanized areas. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod are the largest and most populous of the six flow lenses that comprise the region’s aquifer system, the Cape Cod glacial aquifer. The potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitude and depths to water were evaluated by use of numerical models of the region. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses have a number of large surface water drainages that receive a substantial amount of groundwater discharge, 47 and 29 percent of the total, respectively. The median increase in the simulated water table altitude following a 6-foot sea-level rise across both flow lenses was 2.11 feet, or 35 percent when expressed as a percentage of the total sea-level rise. The response is nearly the same as the sea-level rise (6 feet) in some coastal areas and less than 0.1 foot near some large inland streams. Median water table responses differ substantially between the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses—at 29 and 49 percent, respectively—because larger surface water discharge on the Sagamore flow lens results in increased dampening of the water table response than in the Monomoy flow lens. Surface waters dampen water table altitude increases because streams are fixed-altitude boundaries that cause hydraulic gradients and streamflow to increase as sea-level rises, partially fixing the local water table altitude. The region has a generally thick vadose zone with a mean of about 38 feet; areas with depths to water of 5 feet or less, as estimated from light detection and ranging (lidar) data from 2011 and simulated water table altitudes, currently [2011] occur over about 24.9 square miles, or about 8.4 percent of the total land area of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, generally in low-lying coastal areas and inland near ponds and streams. Excluding potentially submerged areas, an additional 4.5, 9.8, and 15.9 square miles would have shallow depths to water (5 feet or less) for projected sea-level rises of 2, 4, and 6 feet above levels in 2011. The additional areas with shallow depths to water generally occur in the same areas as the areas with current [2011] depths to water of 5 feet or less: low-lying coastal areas and near inland surface water features. Additional areas with shallow depths to water for the largest sea-level rise prediction (6 feet) account for about 5.7 percent of the total land area, excluding areas likely to be inundated by seawater. The numerous surface water drainages will dampen the response of the water table to sea-level rise. This dampening, combined with the region’s thick vadose zone, likely will mitigate the potential for groundwater inundation in most areas. The potential does exist for groundwater inundation in some areas, but the effects of sea-level rise on depths to water and infrastructure likely will not be substantial on a regional level.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy.

Groundwater↗

USGS2016

A semi-structured MODFLOW-USG model to evaluate local water sources to wells for decision support

In order to better represent the configuration of the stream network and simulate local groundwater-surface water interactions, a version of MODFLOW with refined spacing in the topmost layer was applied to a Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) regional groundwater-flow model developed by the U.S. Geological. Regional MODFLOW models commonly use coarse grids over large areas; this coarse spacing precludes model application to local management issues (e.g., surface-water depletion by wells) without recourse to labor-intensive inset models. Implementation of an unstructured formulation within the MODFLOW framework (MODFLOW-USG) allows application of regional models to address local problems. A “semi-structured” approach (uniform lateral spacing within layers, different lateral spacing among layers) was tested using the LMB regional model. The parent 20-layer model with uniform 5000-foot (1524-m) lateral spacing was converted to 4 layers with 500-foot (152-m) spacing in the top glacial (Quaternary) layer, where surface water features are located, overlying coarser resolution layers representing deeper deposits. This semi-structured version of the LMB model reproduces regional flow conditions, whereas the finer resolution in the top layer improves the accuracy of the simulated response of surface water to shallow wells. One application of the semi-structured LMB model is to provide statistical measures of the correlation between modeled inputs and the simulated amount of water that wells derive from local surface water. The relations identified in this paper serve as the basis for metamodels to predict (with uncertainty) surface-water depletion in response to shallow pumping within and potentially beyond the modeled area, see Fienen et al. (2015a).

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

The effect of particle size distribution on the design of urban stormwater control measures

An urban pollutant loading model was used to demonstrate how incorrect assumptions on the particle size distribution (PSD) in urban runoff can alter the design characteristics of stormwater control measures (SCMs) used to remove solids in stormwater. Field-measured PSD, although highly variable, is generally coarser than the widely-accepted PSD characterized by the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). PSDs can be predicted based on environmental surrogate data. There were no appreciable differences in predicted PSD when grouped by season. Model simulations of a wet detention pond and catch basin showed a much smaller surface area is needed to achieve the same level of solids removal using the median value of field-measured PSD as compared to NURP PSD. Therefore, SCMs that used the NURP PSD in the design process could be unnecessarily oversized. The median of measured PSDs, although more site-specific than NURP PSDs, could still misrepresent the efficiency of an SCM because it may not adequately capture the variability of individual runoff events. Future pollutant loading models may account for this variability through regression with environmental surrogates, but until then, without proper site characterization, the adoption of a single PSD to represent all runoff conditions may result in SCMs that are under- or over-sized, rendering them ineffective or unnecessarily costly.

Water↗

USGS2016

Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2016

Evaluating the sources of water to wells: Three techniques for metamodeling of a groundwater flow model

For decision support, the insights and predictive power of numerical process models can be hampered by insufficient expertise and computational resources required to evaluate system response to new stresses. An alternative is to emulate the process model with a statistical “metamodel.” Built on a dataset of collocated numerical model input and output, a groundwater flow model was emulated using a Bayesian Network, an Artificial neural network, and a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. The response of interest was surface water depletion expressed as the source of water-to-wells. The results have application for managing allocation of groundwater. Each technique was tuned using cross validation and further evaluated using a held-out dataset. A numerical MODFLOW-USG model of the Lake Michigan Basin, USA, was used for the evaluation. The performance and interpretability of each technique was compared pointing to advantages of each technique. The metamodel can extend to unmodeled areas.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and scalable to highly-parameterized inverse problems. The framework implements several types of linear (first-order, second-moment (FOSM)) and non-linear uncertainty analyses. The FOSM-based analyses can also be completed prior to parameter estimation to help inform important modeling decisions, such as parameterization and objective function formulation. Complete workflows for several types of FOSM-based and non-linear analyses are documented in example notebooks implemented using Jupyter that are available in the online pyEMU repository. Example workflows include basic parameter and forecast analyses, data worth analyses, and error-variance analyses, as well as usage of parameter ensemble generation and management capabilities. These workflows document the necessary steps and provides insights into the results, with the goal of educating users not only in how to apply pyEMU, but also in the underlying theory of applied uncertainty quantification.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2015

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Bad River Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bad River Watershed and surrounding area by using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state groundwater-flow and base flow in streams by using the streamflow routing (SFR) package. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in the Bad River Watershed at the regional scale, including the sources of water to the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Reservation (Reservation) and groundwater/surface-water interactions; (2) provide a quantitative platform for evaluating future impacts to the watershed, which can be used as a starting point for more detailed investigations at the local scale; and (3) identify areas where more data are needed. This report describes the construction and calibration of the groundwater-flow model that was subsequently used for analyzing potential locations for the collection of additional field data, including new observations of water-table elevation for refining the conceptualization and corresponding numerical model of the hydrogeologic system. The study area can be conceptually divided into three primary hydrogeologic environments. The first encompasses the southern uplands with relatively low topographic relief, where groundwater-flow is unconfined and occurs primarily in sandy till and glacial outwash overlying Archean-aged crystalline bedrock. The second includes a transitional area of higher topographic relief and shallow depth to bedrock, in the vicinity of ridges formed by steeply dipping, early-Proterozoic aged metasedimentary units of the Marquette Range Supergroup (including the Ironwood Formation), and late-Proterozoic igneous units associated with the Midcontinent Rift System (MRS). Groundwater-flow in this area likely occurs primarily through connected networks of bedrock fractures that are not well characterized, and also in isolated pockets of Quaternary deposits. The third and last hydrogeologic environment includes lowlands along Lake Superior where a deep sandstone aquifer is confined by thick deposits of clay-rich till. Model input was compiled by using both published and unpublished data. Constant flux boundary conditions for the model perimeter were developed from a regional analytic element model described in appendix 1 of this report. Pumping from 26 high-capacity wells within the model area was included. The SFR stream network was developed from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Version 2) and hydrography from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR). Hydraulic conductivity values were determined for each model cell by interpolation from a network of pilot points, within zones representing major hydrogeologic units. Recharge to the groundwater system was estimated on a cell-by-cell basis by using the Soil Water Balance code (SWB), with gridded daily temperature and precipitation data for the period 1980–2011, and GIS coverages of soil and land-surface conditions. Estimated recharge varies considerably, following spatial patterns in the precipitation and soil hydrologic group inputs. The lowest recharge values occur in the Superior lowlands, whereas the highest values occur in the upland areas, especially those underlain by sandy soils, and in the vicinity of bedrock hills. The model was calibrated to groundwater-levels and base flows obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, and groundwater-levels obtained from the WDNR and Band River Band well-construction databases. Calibration was performed via nonlinear regression by using the parameter-estimation software suite PEST. Groundwater levels and base-flow observations in the calibration dataset were well simulated by the calibrated model, with reasonable values of hydraulic conductivity. The pilot-point parameters that were most constrained by observations during model calibration coincided with the locations containing the most wells (head observations)—especially the population centers of Ashland, Mellen, and other communities along the major highway corridors. Results from the calibrated model illustrate differences in the nature of groundwater-ﬂow within the watershed. In the southern part of the watershed, where bedrock is shallow, groundwater ﬂow paths are relatively short, extending from local recharge areas to adjacent ﬁrst and second-order streams. In contrast, laterally continuous deposits of clay-rich till covering the Superior Lowlands isolate most smaller streams from the sandstone aquifer, allowing for longer ﬂow paths toward larger streams such as the Bad, Marengo, and White Rivers. Approximately three-quarters of all ﬁrst-order stream cells were dry in the Superior Lowlands, compared to only half of ﬁrst-order stream cells in the southern bedrock uplands. The model was used to delineate the groundwatershed for the Bad and Kakagon Rivers. “Groundwatershed” is deﬁned as the area contributing groundwater discharge to one of these streams and their tributaries. The groundwatershed was found to align closely with the surface-watershed, with the most notable exception occurring along the southwestern half of Birch Hill, where surface water drains southwest towards the Potato River, and groundwater ﬂows north and east towards Lake Superior. Similarly, the contributing area of groundwater-ﬂow to the Reservation was delineated. Results indicate the off-Reservation groundwater contributing area to be limited in comparison to the extent of the watershed, extending southward into the highlands underlain by MRS igneous rock units, but not further into the area underlain by the Marquette Range Supergroup. Stable isotope samples were collected from 54 wells within the watershed, to investigate sources of groundwater. Oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) values lower than -13.0 per mil were documented in the sampling, and likely indicate the presence of recharge water from the last glacial period (>9,500 years old) beneath the northern portion of the Reservation, in the vicinity of Odanah, Wisconsin. Finally, a new data-worth analysis of potential new monitoring-well locations was performed by using the model. The relative worth of new measurements was evaluated based on their ability to increase conﬁdence in model predictions of groundwater levels and base ﬂows at 35 locations, under the condition of a proposed open-pit iron mine. Results of the new data-worth analysis, and other inputs and outputs from the Bad River model, are available through an online dynamic web mapping service at ( http://wim.usgs.gov/badriver/ ).

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software ( Doherty, 2010 ). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [ Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn ( Zea mays L.)–soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which reflect the total information provided by the observations for a parameter, indicated that most of the RZWQM2 parameters at the California study site (CA) and Iowa study site (IA) could be reliably estimated by regression. Correlations obtained in the CA case indicated that all model parameters could be uniquely estimated by inverse modeling. Although water content at field capacity was highly correlated with bulk density (−0.94), the correlation is less than the threshold for nonuniqueness (0.95, absolute value basis). Additionally, we used truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) at CA to mitigate potential problems with highly correlated and insensitive parameters. Singular value decomposition estimates linear combinations (eigenvectors) of the original process-model parameters. Parameter confidence intervals (CIs) at CA indicated that parameters were reliably estimated with the possible exception of an organic pool transfer coefficient (R45), which had a comparatively wide CI. However, the 95% confidence interval for R45 (0.03–0.35) is mostly within the range of values reported for this parameter. Predictive analysis at CA generated confidence intervals that were compared with independently measured annual water flux (groundwater recharge) and median nitrate concentration in a collocated monitoring well as part of model evaluation. Both the observed recharge (42.3 cm yr −1 ) and nitrate concentration (24.3 mg L −1 ) were within their respective 90% confidence intervals, indicating that overall model error was within acceptable limits.

Book chapter↗