Geology topics

Michael J. Anteau

Publications and source records attributed to Michael J. Anteau.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Phenological flexibility in nesting grassland birds over a half century informs timing of management

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

End-user needs for remote sensing wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America comprises globally important grassland and wetland ecosystems critical for numerous populations of migratory birds. Due to the importance of this region for migratory birds, and particularly waterfowl, and the threats of habitat loss due to intensifying agriculture, there is a mature and diverse system of conservation organizations, agencies, and partnerships that spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on habitat conservation to support migratory bird populations. Remote sensing can be a powerful tool for observing and evaluating global change at large scales as well as expanding inferences from field studies to the broader landscape with statistical models. However, development and utilization of these tools has lagged behind their demand for several reasons, including concerns over spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of products; perception of a misalignment with decision-maker needs; technological barriers such as skill sets of conservation professionals, computing resources, data access, and usability. In this report, we summarize the needs of conservation professionals and scientists who use or want to use remote sensing data products to inform science about wetland change and conservation of wetlands in the PPR. We assembled this information through several methods leading up to, during, and following a January 2026 PPR Wetland Remote Sensing Workshop. The workshop included United States and Canadian scientists, conservation professionals, and policy experts. Our goal was to bring together end-users and remote sensing product developers jointly to explore reducing the lag between product development and utilization of products to inform science and conservation. Specifically, we aimed to identify gaps in wetland remote sensing that limit effective monitoring, management, and conservation in the PPR, and to develop a framework that outlines pathways to address these gaps by fostering collaboration, improving communication networks, encouraging discussion, and building on existing and ongoing efforts. This report summarizes our participants’ descriptions of end-user needs and the outcomes of the workshop.

Prairie Pothole region↗

USGS2025

Not all spatially structured populations are metapopulations: Re-examining paradigms for a threatened shorebird

For at-risk species, understanding population vital rates is imperative for developing informed conservation strategies and population models. Managers often assume that species that are spatially distributed among patches of suitable habitat meet the criteria of a metapopulation. Metapopulation dynamics are determined not only by within-patch birth and death processes but also by between-patch dispersal movements of individuals that are infrequent but critical to maintaining population viability across space and time. To conserve and manage such species, an understanding of all these vital rates, including connectivity, is required. The degree to which the northern Great Plains piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ) breeding population functions as a metapopulation depends, in part, on the rate of movement among patchily distributed breeding areas. Here, we examined annual adult survival and breeding dispersal probabilities for 2582 individuals at two spatial scales within the northern Great Plains piping plover breeding population between 2014 and 2019. Inconsistent with a metapopulation structure, annual survival varied minimally among breeding regions but did vary across years. We also found that breeding dispersal probabilities were temporally variable, high, and unbalanced at both spatial scales examined, suggesting high connectivity in contrast to metapopulation dynamics. Further, we detected context-dependent effects of reproductive success on dispersal decisions. Individuals were more likely to disperse from the northern Missouri River to the US Alkali Wetlands following nest failure due to inundation or severe storms (including in the year prior to dispersal), whereas dispersal from the US Alkali Wetlands to the northern Missouri River decreased following successful nest attempts. Individuals also decreased dispersal from the US Alkali Wetlands to the northern Missouri River in response to renesting attempts in both the year of interest and the year prior to dispersal. Our results contradict the paradigm that northern Great Plains piping plovers are structured as a metapopulation and instead suggest a patchily distributed, likely panmictic, population. Our findings have implications for the conservation and management of this listed species and are also a general reminder that in the absence of robust knowledge of movement, spatial variation in birth and death processes across patches should not be conflated with a metapopulation structure.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Modeling wetland resources for spring migratory waterbirds under different agricultural management scenarios in the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Constructed water quality wetlands, designed to accept tile drainage and surface runoff, are a promising solution for reducing surface water nutrient loading from agricultural systems. In addition to their water quality benefits, these systems may also offset losses of migratory waterbird stopover sites resulting from historical and future agricultural drainage modernization. To assess this possibility, we developed spatially explicit habitat models informed with expert opinion to explore the: 1) potential of water quality wetlands to provide suitable stopover resources for waterbirds during spring migration; and 2) the extent these wetlands can offset likely losses of stopover resources due to drainage modernization. We focused our modeling on the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America as it was a historically important area within this vital region for waterbirds, but it has experienced widespread subsurface drainage. Model results indicate that unmitigated drainage modernization is likely to have a large negative effect on spring migratory resources for dabbling ducks and shorebirds and minimal effect on diving ducks. Water quality wetland installations are likely to provide habitat for dabbling and diving ducks, but wetland installation is unlikely to completely offset habitat losses for dabbling ducks and shorebirds. Drainage modernization aside, our results indicate that water quality wetlands can address several environmental issues associated with agricultural expansion and intensification by improving water quality and providing wetland resources for waterbirds and other organisms. Field-scale research is needed to validate these results.

Iowa↗

USGS2025

Pyrethroid insecticide pollution of wetlands reduces amphipod density

Freshwater amphipods play a key role as forage for breeding and migrating waterfowl in wetlands throughout the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America. Amphipod populations declined in recent decades, but there is a limited understanding of mechanisms for their decline and their uneven distribution across the landscape. Row crop agriculture is abundant in the PPR, but the sensitivity of amphipods and wetland ecosystems to agrochemical pollution has rarely been studied. We investigated relationships among amphipod abundances (specifically, Gammarus lacustris and Hyalella azteca ), land uses, water quality, and pyrethroid insecticide contamination of wetland sediments. Our study design targeted a large gradient of amphipod abundances and accounted for water quality, hydrology, and habitat metrics that commonly influence amphipods. We found a significant, negative relationship between pyrethroid concentrations and the abundance of the two amphipod species. Pyrethroids were detected at relatively low concentrations (<2.5 ng/g sediment) in 44% of study wetlands and occurred most frequently in intensively cropped watersheds with low vegetative filter strip coverage. Interestingly, wetlands on state and federal wildlife reserves had regular occurrence of pyrethroids, demonstrating the pervasive transport of these compounds and the intensity of agriculture in the PPR. The pyrethroids are likely entering these wetlands through overland transport during rain events or aerial spray drift, and our results show that forest patches and vegetative filter strips may reduce pyrethroid exposure to both wetlands and amphipods.

Ecotoxicology↗

USGS2025

Developing research tools for demographic study of Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspurs)

Like numerous other North American grassland bird species, Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspur) has experienced severe population declines in the last 50 years. Little is known about population-limiting factors, and knowledge gaps limit conservation efforts on the species; however, before research studies aimed at improving conservation and management actions can be developed, other research must resolve notable knowledge gaps that exist in field techniques for efficient and effective large-scale demographic studies. We examined several techniques for the capture, marking (metal, color bands, and transmitters), and reencountering (resights and telemetry) of thick-billed longspurs in croplands and prairies in Valley County, Montana, during the 2022 and 2023 breeding seasons. Our goal was to evaluate the feasibility of obtaining within- and between-season resights of individual thick-billed longspurs using optical equipment and cameras, transmitter receivers, and the Motus automatic receiving station network. This report includes observations and insights that may aid researchers embarking on future demographic studies of thick-billed longspurs, as well as other grassland birds that provide similar research challenges.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Wetland hydrologic dynamics and duck productivity are declining in the Prairie Pothole Region, and they are linked

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important area hosting >50 % of North America’s breeding ducks. Ducks in the PPR depend on wetlands and grasslands which have experienced accelerated losses in extent and quality due to agriculture. While other bird populations have declined, duck abundance reached record highs recently (2013–2017). We explored this discontinuity by examining monitoring data for trends in pond numbers (wetlands with ponded water) and interannual dynamics (water-level dynamics indexed by interannual change in pond numbers) and how those factors influenced duck productivity in the PPR during 1976–2019. Over time, pond numbers increased but their interannual dynamics declined, indicating stabilization of an ecosystem evolved with a dynamic climate. Our models accounted for 67 and 71 % of variation in productivity of PPR-obligate gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) and redheads ( Aythya americana ), respectively. Breeding productivity of these sentinel species was positively correlated with pond abundance and dynamics, and systematically declined. Accordingly, our analyses revealed sensitivity of breeding ducks to systematic change in the PPR previously obscured by increasingly abundant pond numbers. Interannual pond dynamics improved duck productivity and pond dynamics have declined indicating a de facto 44-year decline in duck productivity which is likely driven by water-level stabilization decreasing quality of brood-rearing wetlands. Residual temporal effects indicated that productivity has also declined for other reasons, such as agricultural land use changes. While mechanisms behind these correlations are speculative, they demonstrate the importance of further understanding land use and climate changes in the PPR for conservation of these important species and ecosystems.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2024

True metabolizable energy of foods consumed by lesser scaup (Aythya affinis)

The energy derived from available foods is an important factor used in conservation planning for migratory species. Estimating true metabolizable energy (TME) of available foods has become a common method for resource managers to increase reliability in energetic carrying-capacity estimates. Lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ; hereafter scaup), have experienced a population decline concurrent with suspected decreases in foraging habitat quality and quantity at spring stopover sites in the upper Midwest, USA. Unfortunately, few TME estimates are available for common diet items of scaup. We estimated nitrogen-adjusted TME (TME N ) of 5 common foods of scaup by conducting feeding trials on wild females and males. True metabolizable energy varied by food taxa, but not by pretrial body mass or sex. Mean TME N (kcal/g[dry] ± SE) was greatest for wild millet ( Echinochloa crus-galli ; 2.20 ± 0.14), followed by chironomids ( Chironomus spp.; 1.41 ± 0.49), amphipods ( Gammarus spp .; 1.33 ± 0.23 ) , planorbid snails (Planorbidae; 0.17 ± 0.07), and fingernail clams (Sphaeriidae; −0.79 ± 0.27). Our results, combined with scaup diet literature indicated that the management of spring staging areas for high-energy invertebrates (i.e., chironomids and amphipods) would provide improved opportunity for energy acquisition during migration. Further study could help determine if the acclimation of scaup to particular diets, especially bivalves, increases their TME N values.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2024

Low rate of population establishment of a freshwater invertebrate (Gammarus lacustris) in experimental conservation translocations

Conservation translocations may be a useful tool for the restoration of declining freshwater invertebrates, but they are poorly represented in the literature. We conducted a before-after/control-impact (BACI) experiment to test the efficacy of conservation translocation for re-establishing abundant populations of the amphipod Gammarus lacustris , a declining species and wildlife food resource in depressional wetlands in the upper Midwest of the United States of America. Each study site ( n = 19) contained at least one treatment wetland receiving translocated G. lacustris from a local donor and one control wetland. We selected study wetlands based on a suite of wetland characteristics and randomly assigned recipient versus control treatment. Gammarus lacustris was detected post-translocation at only 2 of 22 recipient wetlands (1 of 19 sites). Overall, there was a statistical increase in G. lacustris density in recipient wetlands compared to controls; however, the results were of minimal biological significance due to being driven by a single site with low G. lacustris densities. Accordingly, our results suggest that future conservation translocations of amphipods might be successful if limited to recently restored wetlands or informed by a more complex habitat suitability model to differentiate dispersal limitations from habitat limitations. To develop such a model would involve identifying the fewest, most influential physical and biological factors (e.g. wetland size/structure, fish, aquatic vegetation, and water chemistry) from the numerous inter-related factors that correlate with the abundance of naturally occurring G. lacustris ; candidate wetlands to receive amphipods would be those for which the model predicts abundant G. lacustris but in which they do not presently occur.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

Fish invasion of prairie pothole wetlands reduces amphipod abundance, a key vertebrate forage

Fishes have spread into previously fishless wetlands, likely affecting other species. In the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, the invasion of fish into wetlands is facilitated by interactions of altered land use, climate, and hydrology. We aimed to understand the effects of fishes on amphipods, which are macroinvertebrates that vertebrates rely on as forage. We hypothesized the presence and abundance of fish, particularly benthivores, would have detrimental effects on amphipod abundance. Our study design targeted a large gradient of amphipod abundances among wetlands, including very high abundances of two amphipod species: Gammarus lacustris and Hyalella azteca . We found that fishless basins had twice as many amphipods as those with fish, on average. Gammarus lacustris were not detected in the presence of Black Bullhead Ameiurus melas . The abundance of both amphipod species had negative associations with the most common fishes, Fathead Minnow Pimephales promelas and Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans . A multivariate community analysis showed the benthivore-fish functional feeding guild was negatively associated with the amphipod community, as hypothesized. However, our study design captured several wetlands with anomalies of high abundances of both fish and amphipods, obscuring their relationships. Our results aid resource managers by confirming several fish guilds and species are associated with lower abundances of amphipods. These findings can inform resource managers who make decisions about managing for fish and wildlife; for example, they may choose to manage existing fish populations or protect existing wetlands with high amphipod densities from new fish invasions.

Wetlands↗

USGS2024

Assessing trade-offs in developing a landscape-scale nest monitoring programme for a threatened shorebird

Effective monitoring of wildlife species requires thorough planning and development of survey programmes that can address management and conservation objectives. Decisions about monitoring programmes include where to survey, survey design and how much effort to allocate at survey sites are typically predicated on limited budgets and available resources. When the scope of inference requires monitoring on a broad spatial scale, predictions of habitat distribution or suitability may be useful for identifying potential survey sites. We focused on a threatened but widely distributed shorebird, the piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ), which is actively monitored across some, but not all of its range. Our objective was to use piping plover habitat distribution maps, which vary annually, to assess the effectiveness of multiple monitoring programme scenarios and their associated costs. In the breeding range, efforts to improve productivity for species of conservation concern often focus on improving probabilities of nest survival. Consequently, collecting adequate nesting data is crucial for obtaining accurate and precise estimates of nest survival and for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. By simulating the nest monitoring process, we evaluated how much area, where and how often to survey each site when estimating nest survival and detecting effects of potential management actions. As expected, precision increased and bias decreased around nest survival estimates with greater survey coverage and nest visit frequency. We also identified monitoring programmes with negative net values where survey costs outweighed statistical benefits. Although we applied our simulation framework to evaluate nest monitoring designs for piping plovers, it could be extended to assess whether different monitoring programmes can detect changes in the distribution of other species or occupancy of habitats over time.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

USGS2024

Seasonal and breeding phenologies of 38 grassland bird species in the midcontinent of North America

Grasslands in the midcontinent of North America are highly imperiled, and grassland birds have suffered the largest bird declines of any terrestrial biome in North America in the last 50 years. Consequently, the conservation and management of grasslands, as well as their associated avian communities, are major priorities for the State, Provincial, and Federal agencies; non-governmental organizations; and private entities that influence the millions of hectares of grasslands in the midcontinent. Resource managers often deploy disturbances to grasslands (for example, grazing, haying, and burning) to maintain or enhance their quality or structure, but the timing of these disturbances has the potential to disrupt the nesting activities of grassland birds. In this report, we compiled two types of phenology information for 38 species of nonwaterfowl, grassland-nesting birds across four author-defined regions in the midcontinent of North America: (1) species- and region-specific arrival and departure dates from the eBird database, which indicate when a species may be assumed to be present in a region; and (2) reported dates of nesting activity for each species (start and end dates of nesting as well as total duration) from published bird distribution and occurrence books and breeding bird atlases, which indicate when nesting by a species may be assumed. This previously available but widely dispersed information, compiled for the first time, will aid resource managers and inform their decisions about the timing of disturbances while minimizing grassland management effects on nesting birds.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Lipid metabolites index habitat quality for Canvasbacks on stopover areas during spring migration

Nutrients acquired by ducks on spring migratory stopover areas influence survival and subsequent reproduction. Accordingly, wetland loss and degradation on stopover areas can lead to reduced refueling efficiency and have demographic consequences. Lipid metabolite concentrations in blood provide a useful index of daily mass change in wild birds and can be used to make inferences about quality of stopover areas for refueling. We experimentally validated a model that uses lipid metabolites to predict daily mass change, and then we used those predictions to make inferences about foraging habitat quality for Canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) at important stopover sites of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, USA. We measured plasma lipid metabolites and daily mass change of 60 wild Canvasbacks held in short-term captivity and subjected to feeding and fasting treatments. Respectively, triglyceride and β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations were positively and negatively related to mass change ( R 2 = 0.58). On average, Canvasbacks collected experimentally across our study area had positive index values indicating sufficient forage resources to allow energy acquisition. However, predicted daily mass increases were greater at more northerly pools of the Mississippi River (Pools 7–8 and 13) compared to more southerly locations (Pool 19 of the Mississippi River and the Illinois River Valley), which was likely due, in part, to more abundant submerged aquatic vegetation at more northerly pools. Our results affirm that lipid metabolites are useful predictors of daily mass change that in turn can provide inferences about habitat quality. Lower daily mass increases of Canvasbacks at Pool 19 are concerning because that area is considered a critically important spring stopover area for migratory diving ducks. Considering the challenges of managing large rivers for multiple uses, targeting restoration of wetlands isolated or isolatable from river systems could provide stopover areas with necessary forage for optimal mass gain.

Illinois, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Factors influencing autumn–winter movements of midcontinent Mallards and consequences for harvest and habitat management

Annual phenology and distributions of migratory wildlife have been noticeably influenced by climate change, leading to concerns about sustainable populations. Recent studies exploring conditions influencing autumn migration departure have provided conflicting insights regarding factors influencing the movements of Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), a popular game species. We determined factors affecting timing and magnitude of long-distance movements of 97 juvenile Mallards during autumn-winter across the midcontinent of North America marked with implanted transmitters in North and South Dakota, 2018–2019. Factors influencing variation in movement timing, along with direction and magnitudes, depended on type of movement (i.e., regional [25–310 km], initial migration, or subsequent migration movements [>310 km]). Photoperiod influenced probability of initiating all movements, although the effect was most influential for regional movements. Minimum temperature most influenced initial migration events (probability of movement increased 29% for each 1°C decrease); favorable winds also increased likelihood of initial migration events. Probability of subsequent migration events increased 80% for each 1 cm increase in depth of snow. Subsequent migration movements also were 2.0 times more likely to occur on weekend days, indicating disturbance from humans may influence movements. Migration distances increased 166 km for each 1°C reduction in minimum temperature. We also observed markedly different autumn-winter distributions of marked birds between years. Median locations during autumn-winter 2018–2019 were ~250 km farther north and ~300 km farther west during mid-December–January compared to the same time in 2019–2020. Concurrently, harvest rates for marked females and males were 10% and 26% during autumn-winter 2018–2019 and 26% and 31% during autumn-winter 2019–2020. Climate-related changes may result in increasingly variable autumn-winter distributions, with implications for wildlife recreationalists, conservation planners, and harvest managers.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Estimating population viability of the northern Great Plains piping plover population considering updated population structure, climate change, and intensive management

One challenge in wildlife conservation is understanding how various threats and management actions may influence long-term population viability. This is particularly evident when there is considerable uncertainty regarding population structure and vital rates. Reassessment of current knowledge and population trends is necessary for listed species to improve management actions that benefit conservation. We present an updated population viability analysis for northern Great Plains piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus circumcinctus ) based on the latest scientific data on survival, fecundity, and connectivity. Further, we explore the consequences of potential management actions and the stochastic effects of global climate change on population viability through changes in survival and fecundity. Our results predict elevated risks of extinction after 50 years (0.088 – 0.373) compared to previous predictions (0.033) based on assumed conditions of low connectivity among four major breeding groups structured as a metapopulation. We explored eight scenarios based on empirically-derived, higher connectivity rates and found that the northern Great Plains population never had a mean predicted population growth rate greater than one (0.946 – 0.996). Two scenarios that simulated a reduction in adult survival showed higher extinction probabilities (0.267 – 0.373), whereas two other scenarios that simulated an increase in fecundity exhibited lower extinction probabilities (0.088 – 0.103). These results indicate that viability of the northern Great Plains population of piping plovers could be improved with management actions that increase fecundity as long as adult survival is not simultaneously reduced. Lastly, breeding groups appeared to function less independently when connectivity rates were higher, as the breeding population was divided evenly among breeding groups. This indicates that the presumed metapopulation structure of our study system may need to be re-evaluated, and that empirically-based estimates of connectivity are essential to assessing population viability of mobile species that exhibit a spatially structured distribution.

Frontiers in Bird Science↗

USGS2023

Conspecific density and habitat quality affect breeding habitat selection: Support for the social attraction hypothesis

Breeding habitat selection is a critical component of the annual cycle because of its effect on fitness. Multiple theories of habitat selection can be differentiated by their responses to the quantity of habitat, conspecific density, and habitat quality. Here, we use network analysis to understand the characteristics of fine-scale breeding habitat selected by both immigrant and returning adult piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) to test five hypotheses of habitat selection. Between 2014 and 2019, we recorded 2034 uniquely marked adults breeding at 326 breeding locations with 1240 successive breeding events. Among adults, immigration events (i.e., individuals that moved to a new breeding location) were detected as often as fidelity to the same breeding location. We found support for the social attraction hypothesis for both immigrants and returners, indicating that adult plovers use social cues for settlement decisions. Adult plovers selected habitats with intermediate levels of conspecific density and high habitat quality, as assessed by con- and heterospecific nest survival, with no effect from the amount of available habitat. We also simulated the loss of breeding habitat and identified highly connected breeding locations, which occurred mostly on the riverine habitat type, which have important implications for habitat conservation for this listed species. Our results highlight the role of conspecifics at identifying high-quality breeding habitat regardless of whether individuals return to the same breeding site or immigrate to new areas.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Data integration reveals dynamic and systematic patterns of breeding habitat use by a threatened shorebird

Incorporating species distributions into conservation planning has traditionally involved long-term representations of habitat use where temporal variation is averaged to reveal habitats that are most suitable across time. Advances in remote sensing and analytical tools have allowed for the integration of dynamic processes into species distribution modeling. Our objective was to develop a spatiotemporal model of breeding habitat use for a federally threatened shorebird (piping plover, Charadrius melodus ). Piping plovers are an ideal candidate species for dynamic habitat models because they depend on habitat created and maintained by variable hydrological processes and disturbance. We integrated a 20-year (2000–2019) nesting dataset with volunteer-collected sightings (eBird) using point process modeling. Our analysis incorporated spatiotemporal autocorrelation, differential observation processes within data streams, and dynamic environmental covariates. We evaluated the transferability of this model in space and time and the contribution of the eBird dataset. eBird data provided more complete spatial coverage in our study system than nest monitoring data. Patterns of observed breeding density depended on both dynamic (e.g., surface water levels) and long-term (e.g., proximity to permanent wetland basins) environmental processes. Our study provides a framework for quantifying dynamic spatiotemporal patterns of breeding density. This assessment can be iteratively updated with additional data to improve conservation and management efforts, because reducing temporal variability to average patterns of use may cause a loss in precision for such actions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Migrating ducks and submersed aquatic vegetation respond positively after invasive common carp (Cyprinus carpio) exclusion from a freshwater coastal marsh

Invasive carp can negatively affect waterbirds through habitat degradation, including removal of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV). At a freshwater coastal marsh of great ecological and cultural significance, we excluded invasive common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) with the goal of restoring the marsh to historical conditions to support fall-migrating waterfowl. We used a multi-pronged approach to assess the response of ducks and SAV to carp exclusion by leveraging historical duck and SAV surveys and collecting new data for six years post-exclusion on density and distribution of ducks within the marsh, SAV response, and refueling performance (as indexed by plasma-lipid metabolites) by two species of diving ducks. We found that fall-migrating duck numbers and total SAV extent rebounded to historical levels (1970s). There was a 339% increase in diving duck density and a nearly 400% increase in dabbling duck density between the pre- (i.e., 2000s) and post-exclusion periods. Diving ducks were more likely to be observed associated with SAV within the marsh, whereas dabbling ducks responded to emergent vegetation extent and water levels. Refueling performance was stable post-exclusion, despite increased numbers of ducks using the marsh, indicating that marsh habitat quality was sufficient. Some aspects of the marsh recovery remain in question, including possible shifts in SAV community composition. Overall, the carp exclusion has successfully improved the quality of habitat for migrating ducks.

Manitoba↗