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Michael I. Goldstein

Publications and source records attributed to Michael I. Goldstein.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2012

Factors affecting incubation patterns and sex roles of black oystercatchers in Alaska

Studies examining the effects of human disturbance on avian parental behavior and reproductive success are fundamental to bird conservation. However, many such studies fail to also consider the influence of natural threats, a variable environment, and parental roles. Our work examines interactive relationships of cyclical (time of day, tide, temperature, seasonality) and stochastic (natural/human disturbance) processes with incubation patterns (attendance, bout lengths, recess rates) of the Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani), a shorebird of conservation concern. We used 24-hour-per-day video monitoring of 13 molecularly-sexed breeding pairs to systematically examine incubation, revealing previously undocumented information that may inform conservation practices for the genus. Seven of 22 video-monitored nests failed, primarily from egg depredation by nocturnally-active mammals. Analyses of 3177 hrs of video footage indicated a near doubling of incubation bout lengths at night, corresponding to the increased risk of nighttime egg predation. Females had higher overall nest attendance (54% vs. 42%) and longer mean incubation bout lengths than males (88 min vs. 73 min). Uninterrupted incubation bouts were over twice as long as bouts interrupted by disturbance. Incubating males departed nests substantially more frequently due to nest-area disturbances than females in one, but not both, years of our study. Our findings suggest that sexes exhibit different, but complimentary, incubation patterns, facilitating efficient egg care in a dynamic environment with several nest threats. We emphasize the importance of considering natural influences when evaluating human threats to shorebird reproductive behavior and success.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Seasonal movements, winter range use, and migratory connectivity of the Black Oystercatcher

The Black Oystercatcher ( Haematopus bachmani ) is an intertidal obligate along North America's Pacific coast and a species of high conservation concern (population size 8900–11 000 individuals). Understanding birds' movements and space use throughout the annual cycle has become paramount in the face of changing environmental conditions, and intertidal species may be particularly vulnerable to habitat change due to anticipated sea-level rise associated with climate change and increasing coastal development. Conservation of the Black Oystercatcher is hindered by a lack of information on the species' nonbreeding distribution, seasonal movements, and habitat connectivity. Using satellite ( n = 19) and VHF ( n = 19) radio transmitters, we tracked Black Oystercatchers from five breeding sites (Vancouver Island, British Columbia; Kodiak Island, Prince William Sound, Middleton Island, and Juneau, Alaska) through one and one half annual cycles (May 2007–Dec 2008). We documented medium- to long-distance migration (range of migration distance 130–1667 km) in three populations (Prince William Sound, Middleton Island, and Juneau) and year-round residency in two others (Kodiak and Vancouver Island). We observed variation in the timing and length of migration by study site, and individual birds demonstrated fidelity to breeding and nonbreeding sites. We did not observe strong migratory connectivity. Migratory oystercatchers distributed themselves widely along the coasts of British Columbia and southeast Alaska during winter. Results provide baseline information on the Black Oystercatcher's movements and space use throughout the annual cycle.

Alaska↗