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Michael D. Bartles

Publications and source records attributed to Michael D. Bartles.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Benchmark dataset of historical annual peak floods classified by causal mechanisms for select US river basins

Considering the causal mechanisms of floods can improve estimates of flood recurrence intervals given that certain flood types can be associated with higher magnitude and more damaging floods. However, few verified datasets of flood types are available to validate the semiautomated and automated classification algorithms needed to apply flood-typing across large hydrologically diverse regions. To address this gap, a benchmark dataset of manually classified flood types was compiled for 1,763 annual maximum flood peaks from 18 stream gauges in six different river basins across the conterminous United States from 1851 to 2022. Within each basin, three representative stream gauges were selected for manual flood typing. A flexible classification framework is introduced that facilitates flood typing across hydrologically diverse regions and accommodates unique combinations of weather and antecedent watershed conditions specific to each region. Floods were manually typed by domain experts using multiple lines of evidence to identify a primary surface water input of each flood (rainfall, snowmelt, or both) and, if relevant, associated storm type and secondary causal mechanisms characterizing antecedent watershed conditions. Across all the study basins, 49% of historical annual maximum flood peaks were attributable to rainfall, 28% to snowmelt, 22% to mixed precipitation, and 1% could not be assigned to a mechanism due to missing or incomplete data. The proposed flood-typing schema supports varying levels of flood typing specificity required for mixed population flood-frequency analysis, flood-type-specific design hydrographs, water quality response studies, and additional applications. This detailed, manually determined benchmark dataset serves as a resource that can be used developing and validating automated or machine learning-based algorithms capable of operationalizing expanded flood peak information.

conterminous United States

Assessing causes and consequences of winter surface water dynamics in California’s Central Valley using satellite remote sensing

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can enhance future flood predictions, but cloud cover has prevented the regular observation of surface water extents with optical satellite imagery. In this study, we leveraged the daily resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data to create a continuous series of monthly Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWEmod) images across the Central Valley from January 2003 to January 2023. We used the timeseries to assess the climatic driving forces of winter (Oct–April) surface water variability at sub-basin and pixel scales. At the sub-basin scale, we evaluated the influences of winter precipitation, occurrence of atmospheric rivers, and antecedent soil moisture on monthly surface water extents and found that the greatest correspondence occurs in mid-winter (Dec–Feb); in contrast, non-precipitation drivers such as water management play a stronger role in autumn and spring. The pixel-level analysis identified the probabilities of precipitation-driven surface water occurrences in the Sacramento basin are highest along rivers, conveyance channels, and floodways, with higher probabilities under wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. Precipitation-driven surface water occurrences are also common in leveed areas and outside flood boundaries designated by state and federal agencies where exposure of structures to inundation was larger in terms of their value. Finally, areas with more frequent precipitation-driven flooding have poor recharge potential but are commonly within 5 km of areas classified as having good potential. This study demonstrates a novel approach for exploring the utility of MODIS for understanding surface water dynamics in mid-winter, a period characterized by peak precipitation, flood risk, and surface water extent. This information can provide valuable insights for (1) assessing flood risks for infrastructure and populations, (2) identifying areas most suited to strategic water management investments to increase recharge, and (3) analyzing precipitation thresholds that trigger flooding to allow proactive water management strategies to minimize damage and maximize recharge.

California

Surface-water and groundwater interactions in an extensively mined watershed, upper Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, USA

Streams crossing underground coal mines may lose flow, while abandoned mine drainage (AMD) restores flow downstream. During 2005-12, discharge from the Pine Knot Mine Tunnel, the largest AMD source in the upper Schuylkill River Basin, had near-neutral pH and elevated concentrations of iron, manganese, and sulfate. Discharge from the tunnel responded rapidly to recharge but exhibited a prolonged recession compared to nearby streams, consistent with rapid infiltration and slow release of groundwater from the mine. Downstream of the AMD, dissolved iron was attenuated by oxidation and precipitation while dissolved CO 2 degassed and pH increased. During high-flow conditions, the AMD and downstream waters exhibited decreased pH, iron, and sulfate with increased acidity that were modeled by mixing net-alkaline AMD with recharge or runoff having low ionic strength and low pH. Attenuation of dissolved iron within the river was least effective during high-flow conditions because of decreased transport time coupled with inhibitory effects of low pH on oxidation kinetics. A numerical model of groundwater flow was calibrated using groundwater levels in the Pine Knot Mine and discharge data for the Pine Knot Mine Tunnel and the West Branch Schuylkill River during a snowmelt event in January 2012. Although the calibrated model indicated substantial recharge to the mine complex took place away from streams, simulation of rapid changes in mine pool level and tunnel discharge during a high flow event in May 2012 required a source of direct recharge to the Pine Knot Mine. Such recharge produced small changes in mine pool level and rapid changes in tunnel flow rate because of extensive unsaturated storage capacity and high transmissivity within the mine complex. Thus, elimination of stream leakage could have a small effect on the annual discharge from the tunnel, but a large effect on peak discharge and associated water quality in streams.

Pennsylvania