Geology topics

Melanie J. Davis

Publications and source records attributed to Melanie J. Davis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Effects of a low-lipid diet on the gut microbiome and head kidney transcriptome of juvenile Chinook Salmon

Objective Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. reared in production hatcheries are typically fed high-lipid, energy-dense diets to achieve large size and high body condition prior to release. In contrast, juveniles in natural environments tend to consume low-lipid, high-protein diets, and fish reared for research or conservation purposes are sometimes fed diets that are formulated to mimic natural diets and promote wild-like phenotypes. Understanding how these alternative diets affect fish health beyond growth and body condition could ultimately contribute to improving hatchery fish fitness. Methods In this work, we evaluated changes in the fecal microbiome and gene expression of juvenile Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha on a standard high-lipid hatchery diet versus a low-lipid diet formulated to mimic the nutrition profile of natural-origin fish. To evaluate the time scale at which diet alters the fecal microbiome, we collected longitudinal samples over a 12-week period and switched the diets of a subset of fish twice during the experiment. We used 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing to characterize fecal microbiome differences between fish on the two diets as well as hatchery-reared fish at a production hatchery, hatchery fish that had been captured after release into a stream, and natural-origin, stream-reared fish of similar ages. Additionally, we conducted RNA sequencing on head kidney samples from laboratory-reared fish to evaluate changes in gene expression in this important immune organ. Results We found that the low-lipid diet and the hatchery diet resulted in microbiomes that differed from the microbiome of natural-origin fish and from each other and that diet-driven changes to the microbiome could occur in under 14 d. The low-lipid diet did not result in a microbiome that resembled the microbiome of naturally produced fish. Instead, the low-lipid diet resulted in a microbiome community that was distinct from those of fish reared on the hatchery diet and fish sampled from the wild. The RNA sequencing results indicated differential enrichment of pathways related to immunity, metabolism, and hormone synthesis between fish that were fed the two experimental diets. Conclusions The results suggest that additional environmental factors influence the microbiome more strongly than diet formulation or that the low-lipid diet has a smaller effect on the microbiome than a natural, invertebrate-based diet. Given that the gut microbiome and systemic immune function contribute significantly to disease resistance, our findings highlight the importance of understanding how diets fed to fish in captivity may affect fish health beyond growth and body condition metrics.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗

USGS2026

From uncertainty to co-production: Structural and systemic barriers to salmon recovery in Puget Sound

This case study examines barriers to implementing “H-Integrated” salmon recovery strategies—efforts that coordinate habitat, hatchery, harvest, and hydropower actions—in Puget Sound. Based on a focus group with Tribal, State, Federal, and nonprofit practitioners, we identified five interconnected constraints: data gaps , modeling frameworks , decision-making under uncertainty , limited organizational capacity , and collaboration across silos . These were embedded within a sixth cross-cutting constraint: structural and systemic barriers , exemplified by complicated institutional dynamics and differences in how expertise is recognized across organizations. Participants emphasized that these challenges are closely connected, making it harder for groups to plan together, adapt to change, or try new approaches. Many of these challenges reflect not only technical limitations, but also stem from contrasting perspectives on data collection and decision authority, as well as the complex histories that have shaped relationships among agencies, organizations, and Tribal Nations. We interpret these dynamics through the lenses of situated knowledge and epistemological pluralism and suggest that effective knowledge co-production can bridge these gaps and strengthen collaborative problem-solving, innovation, and risk-taking. Participants emphasized that, along with modeling tools that reflect the realities of on-the-ground decision-making, H-Integration depends on institutional support for collaborative monitoring and trust-building. In practice, this means developing processes that integrate different perspectives and treating co-production as an ongoing institutional commitment.

Washington↗

USGS2025

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Modeling lamprey distribution using flow, geomorphology, and elevation in a terminal lake system

Objective Lampreys are an ecologically important group of fishes. Several species are imperiled and lack key distribution and habitat data. The terminal Goose Lake Basin, U.S.A. is home to two such species, the Goose Lake Lamprey, Entosphenus sp. (formally undescribed), and the Pit-Klamath Brook Lamprey, E. lethophagus . Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful for identifying key habitats; however, SDMs are subject to accuracy impairments caused by scale mismatches and spatial autocorrelation—both exacerbated by the hierarchical structure of dendritic stream networks. Our goal was to relate lamprey presence–absence to ecological drivers and predict the distribution of lampreys across the Goose Lake Basin. Methods Using a dataset pooling approach, we integrated count and presence–absence data from five surveys and relevant habitat variables from publicly available, geospatial datasets to build logistic regression models. To account for potential mismatches of scale, we compared three sample grains for slope and sinuosity (i.e., stream segment lengths: 250, 500, and 1,000 m), and two scales of elevation (site and watershed). We accounted for spatial autocorrelation by incorporating network-based and Euclidean spatial dependencies using a spatial stream network (SSN) modeling approach. Using the best-fit spatial and non-spatial models, we predicted basin-wide lamprey distribution. Result Flow, sinuosity at our largest sample grain (1,000 m), and watershed-scale elevation were positively associated with lamprey presence, whereas slope was negatively associated. The non-spatial model predicted lamprey presence among sinuous, low-gradient streams, whereas the spatial model, which identified Euclidean and flow-connected spatial relationships, predicted contiguous patches with a high probability of occurrence near areas with previously observed presences. Conclusions Our study revealed ecological relationships and produced an accurate basinwide SDM. Prediction and inference improved after accounting for spatial relationships across multiple scales. Developing accurate and efficient modeling strategies that incorporate the hierarchical structure inherent to stream ecosystems aids in the management and conservation of native fishes such as lampreys.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2025

Estuarine tidal cycles may preserve thermal refugia as global temperatures increase

Climate change is affecting coastal ecosystems worldwide as water temperatures increase, hydrologic regimes change, and sea levels rise. Consequently, estuaries risk declines in ecosystem functioning due to increasing temperatures and other hydrologic factors. Characterizing and predicting estuarine water temperature are challenging because these systems are highly dynamic. Statistical models have been used to accurately assess air temperature-water temperature relationships in lakes and streams but have not been effectively applied to tidally influenced ecosystems like estuaries. We used 6 years of continuous monitoring data from the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., to parameterize and run a non-linear statistical model and generate spatially explicit model predictions. Our goal was to examine spatiotemporal patterns in estuarine water temperature and thermal refugia given current estimates of climactic change. The performance of the parameterized model was similar to that of non-linear stream temperature models (NSE = 0.76; RMSE = 2.34 °C). Scenarios incorporating forecasted high-emission air temperatures through the year 2100 (+ 7 °C) predicted a corresponding 3.55 ± 0.63 °C increase in average water temperatures; however, moderate and high rates of sea-level rise offset temperature increases by 3–20% and substantially reduced the amount of time temperatures exceeded the thermal stress threshold of 20 °C for juvenile salmon. These findings demonstrate how the effects of one climate stressor (sea-level rise) may offset another (temperature increases) to maintain thermal refugia for coldwater fishes. Similar exercises may allow managers to explore mitigation options like the planting of riparian vegetation or modified flooding regimes to further offset rising water temperatures.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Climate vulnerability assessment of Oregon hatchery programs

The goal of this project was to assess the vulnerability to climate change impacts for a sample set of hatchery programs representing different geographic areas and primary anadromous species raised in state-managed Oregon hatcheries (Summary Figure 1). Freshwater and marine ecosystem processes can significantly influence salmon and steelhead survival, and understanding how these factors have affected historical returns can help managers evaluate the climate vulnerability of hatchery stocks. We examined stock-specific trends in smolt-to-adult returns (SARs), which represent the proportion of smolts released from the hatchery that are recovered in fisheries or as returning adult spawners. SARs are among the most consistent long term estimators of survival for hatchery-origin stocks. Depending on the stock, adult recoveries could occur in marine fisheries, freshwater fisheries, returns to the hatchery or another collection facility, and spawning ground surveys. We collected time series data on relevant ecological indicators and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore both univariate and multivariate relationships with SARs for each hatchery stock. An additional aspect of this assessment was to evaluate the climate vulnerability of resident trout stocking programs in the Department's East and West regions, incorporating insights from Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) staff interviews and published data on the thermal tolerance of hatchery trout stocks. This assessment is provided in the ‘Climate vulnerability of trout stocking programs’ subsection below.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Benthic macroinvertebrate response to estuarine emergent marsh restoration across a delta-wide environmental gradient

Benthic invertebrates play vital roles in estuarine ecosystems, but like other taxa they have been excluded from former marshlands by diking and land use conversion. Dike removal is one way of restoring marsh, but the response of benthic invertebrates has been little studied. Also understudied is variation in benthic invertebrate communities across entire deltas, particularly in the Pacific Northwest of North America where deltas receive high flows and sediment loads for their size. Our goals were to evaluate invertebrate response to large-scale dike removal on the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., characterize delta-wide invertebrate community variation, and relate invertebrate response and spatial variation to environmental conditions. We sampled invertebrates annually from one year before to three years after dike removal in restoring marsh, previously restored marsh, undisturbed reference marsh, and adjacent tidal flats. Marine taxa immediately colonized the area recently restored to tidal inundation and population size grew exponentially thereafter for several of them. Community composition and diversity recovered completely, and density and biomass were approaching recovery three years later. Invertebrate communities converged between restoring and pre-existing marsh (previously restored and reference), suggesting an influence of reestablished connectivity. Just offshore from the dike line, invertebrates declined one year after dike removal but then rebounded indicating resilience to short-term disturbance. Dike removal effects were not detected farther offshore. Near the offshore edge of the delta, invertebrate biomass and body size were greater than elsewhere and a diverse assemblage of crustaceans, polychaetes, and bivalves was present. Farther inshore, tidal flats were dominated by a few species of small-bodied polychaetes and had higher density but lower biomass and diversity. Facultative detritivores, which can also filter feed, were the dominant feeding guild everywhere on the tidal flats. Density, biomass, diversity, and community composition on the marsh were more similar to the inner than outer tidal flats. Environmental variables most associated with invertebrate community variation were elevation, salinity, and sediment grain size and organic content. Our results are relevant to assessing performance and setting expectations for future restorations and have broad implications for the role of benthic invertebrates in estuarine ecosystems.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Vulnerability to sea-level rise varies among estuaries and habitat types: Lessons learned from a network of surface elevation tables in Puget Sound

Estuarine systems that provide valuable ecosystem services to society and important foraging and rearing habitat for fish and wildlife species continue to undergo degradation. In Puget Sound, WA, as much as 70–80% of historic estuarine habitat has been lost to anthropogenic development, and continued losses are expected through the end of the twenty-first century due to rising sea levels. To evaluate whether Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats will keep pace with current and projected sea-level rise (SLR), we assessed vertical rates of elevation change from a regional network of surface elevation tables and marker horizons (SET-MH). Over the past two decades, SET-MH equipment has been installed throughout a variety of habitats in five Puget Sound estuaries: the Nisqually, Snohomish, Stillaguamish, and Skagit River estuaries, and Padilla Bay. These data provide a unique opportunity to assess elevation change and habitat resilience across a spatiotemporal and environmental gradient. We observed different rates of surface elevation change among estuaries and habitats (Nisqually = 4.64 ± 2.81 mm/year, Snohomish = 5.71 ± 5.83 mm/year, Stillaguamish = 12.82 ± 10.29 mm/year, Skagit = 16.13 ± 7.57 mm/year, Padilla = − 1.25 ± 1.58 mm/year). The highest rates were found at restoring sites with regular sediment input in the Stillaguamish and Skagit estuaries, whereas rates were consistently negative at low elevation sites in sediment starved Padilla Bay. Many sites in Puget Sound appear to be keeping pace with current rates of relative SLR, and some areas are on track to exceed projected rates through the end of the century. These findings indicate that Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats can be resilient to rising tidal levels—as long as sediment delivery is maintained.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Allochthonous marsh subsidies enhances food web productivity in an estuary and its surrounding ecosystem mosaic

Terrestrial organic matter is believed to play an important role in promoting resilient estuarine food webs, but the inherent interconnectivity of estuarine systems often obscures the origins and importance of these terrestrial inputs. To determine the relative contributions of terrestrial (allochthonous) and aquatic (autochthonous) organic matter to the estuarine food web, we analyzed carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotopes from multiple trophic levels, environmental strata, and habitats throughout the estuarine habitat mosaic. We used a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (SIMM) to parse out relationships among primary producers, invertebrates, and a pelagic and demersal fish species (juvenile Chinook salmon and sculpin, respectively). The study was carried out in the Nisqually River Delta (NRD), Washington, USA, a recently-restored, macrotidal estuary with a diverse habitat mosaic. Plant groupings of macroalgae, eelgrass, and tidal marsh plants served as the primary base components of the NRD food web. About 90% of demersal sculpin diets were comprised of benthic and pelagic crustaceans that were fed by autochthonous organic matter contributions from aquatic vegetation. Juvenile salmon, on the other hand, derived their energy from a mix of terrestrial, pelagic, and benthic prey, including insects, dipterans, and crustaceans. Consequently, allochthonous terrestrial contributions of organic matter were much greater for salmon, ranging between 26 and 43%. These findings demonstrate how connectivity among estuarine habitat types and environmental strata facilitates organic matter subsidies. This suggests that management actions that improve or restore lateral habitat connectivity as well as terrestrial-aquatic linkages may enhance allochthonous subsidies, promoting increased prey resources and ecosystem benefits in estuaries.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Birdwatching preferences reveal synergies and tradeoffs among recreation, carbon, and fisheries ecosystem services in Pacific Northwest estuaries, USA

Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. In an ecosystem services assessment, we used different service-appropriate methods including citizen science, statistical and geospatial models, and scenario analysis to evaluate three ecosystem services – recreational birdwatching, soil carbon accumulation and fishery production – indicated as priorities for the Refuge, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and surrounding communities. We developed a generalized additive mixed model set based on eBird mobile application birdwatching observations to understand the biological and landscape features that influence birdwatching and to project birdwatching visitation based on scenarios of Delta habitat change. We evaluated ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs associated with habitat change for three coastal habitat types using scenario outputs from the birdwatching model and published results on Delta soil carbon accumulation and fishery production. The highest-ranked birdwatching models explained 88 % of the deviance and showed that visitation was greatest in winter months when distance to major cities was approximately 20 km. Recreational birdwatching increased with increasing area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed, open access, and total estuary. With increasing forested and emergent wetland area, recreational birdwatching, out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation all increased. With increasing aquatic vegetation bed (resulting from sea level rise), recreational birdwatching increased, but salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation decreased. We identified practical ways in which ecosystem services may be incorporated into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. This study illustrated how use of ecosystem services can help managers make decisions that have greater benefit for wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions and increase local support and participation.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Selenium hazards in the Salton Sea environment—Summary of current knowledge to inform future wetland management

Quaternary marine and continental shales in the western United States are sources of selenium that can be loaded into the aquatic environment through mining, agricultural, and energy production processes. The mobilization of selenium from shales through agricultural irrigation has been recognized since the 1930s; however, discovery of deformities in birds and other wildlife using agricultural habitats during the 1980s spurred studies to determine the extent and effects of the contamination. Through these early studies, researchers determined that biota in the Salton Sea drainage basin was at risk from legacy selenium contamination in the Colorado River watershed. The Salton Sea and its surrounding managed and unmanaged wetlands provide vital inland habitat and trophic support for diverse assemblages of resident and migratory wildlife, and understanding regional selenium hazards for these trust species is a priority for many Federal and State agencies. The modern Salton Sea is a shallow, landlocked saline lake in Riverside and Imperial Counties (not shown) of California that is sustained by irrigation return and perennial river inflow. Changes in water transfer agreements under the 2003 Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) have resulted in reduced irrigation flow, declining lake levels, and the evolution of unmanaged wetlands in areas where drains and rivers no longer reach the Salton Sea. These wetlands provide additional habitat for some species of concern, but their potential to increase selenium hazards for trust species is largely unknown. From the 1980s to 2020, efforts to document selenium contamination and effects throughout the region have resulted in a considerable amount of selenium data from the Salton Sea and its surrounding drainage basin; however, no long-term (greater than 20 years), consistent sampling program has been established, and all data have been collected by different entities using a variety of protocols and analytical techniques. This lack of coordination has been previously documented in regional management plans and has led to difficulty in reliably assessing selenium hazards in the Salton Sea environment. This report provides a summary of the available disparate selenium information collected from water, sediment, and biota in the Salton Sea region since the 1980s and to identify data gaps that need to be filled to understand the potential effects of selenium on species of concern, including federally endangered desert pupfish ( Cyprinodon macularius ) and Yuma Ridgway’s Rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis; formerly Yuma Clapper Rail, Rallus longirostris yumanensis ). Available data from the Salton Sea drainage basin show that water from the Colorado River has the lowest selenium concentration of all surface water sources. All other surface water flowing into the Salton Sea has elevated selenium concentrations due to evaporation and evapotranspiration that occurs in agricultural fields and associated water delivery infrastructure or leaching of selenium from irrigated farmland soils. The Salton Sea has lower selenium concentrations because of various biogeochemical processes that recycle selenium into the sediment or volatilize it to the atmosphere; however, these mechanisms are not well defined, and it is not clear if selenium cycling will change in response to possible changes in the oxidation state of the Salton Sea bottom waters as water levels decline. Agricultural drains have the highest average selenium concentrations, but few drains have been sampled since changes in irrigation practices have occurred (due to the 2003 QSA). Groundwater selenium concentrations are variable; some wells south of the Salton Sea have selenium concentrations as high as 300 micrograms per liter (µg/L), whereas selenium concentrations are below detection in other wells. Groundwater and surface-water geothermal discharge zones around the margins of the Salton Sea and in unmanaged wetlands have not been studied in detail, and published selenium measurements are not available for these surface features. Selenium concentrations in the sediment of the Salton Sea drainage basin are highest in wetland particulate organic matter and the Salton Sea lakebed, indicating that removal of selenium from the water to the sediment has been a primary mechanism for keeping selenium concentrations low in the water column. Sediment selenium concentrations in wetlands are lower than in the Salton Sea but higher than inflowing drains and rivers, indicating the lentic wetland sites also may be important sinks for selenium because of biogeochemical processes. Sediment selenium data have not been collected in agricultural drains since changes in irrigation practices occurred (due to the 2003 QSA), and it is unknown if selenium sequestration from the water column has changed in these systems. We divided biological data into broad taxonomic categories, including primary producers, invertebrates, herpetofauna, mammals, fishes, and birds to facilitate evaluation of selenium concentrations and spatiotemporal trends observed in the Salton Sea. Overall, selenium concentrations were substantially greater in algae samples compared to all vascular plant samples combined. Median selenium concentrations in several invertebrate taxa (Chironomidae, Formicidae, Corixidae, Corbiculidae and Nereididae, and Decapoda) exceeded the maximum suggested dietary threshold of 3.0–4.0 micrograms per gram (µg/g) dry weight (dw) for predators consuming invertebrates in aquatic food webs. The greatest number of samples were collected from fish, and selenium distributions among species and locations showed that the range for most samples was lower than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency selenium criterion for aquatic life (8.5 µg/g dw whole body, 11.3 µg/g dw fillets). The median selenium concentrations for whole body fish were below the selenium criterion in most locations, except for bairdiella ( Bairdiella icistia ) from the Salton Sea and irrigation drains, a few individual tilapia spp. (family Cichlidae, including genera Tilapia, Oreochromis , and their hybrids) from the river and river outlets, and several western mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ) and sailfin molly ( Poecilia latipinna ) from irrigation drain outlets. For avian samples combined among years and locations, median selenium concentrations in livers from all families except waders and Ibis (family Threskiornithidae) were higher than levels expected to cause selenium toxicosis (10–20 µg/g dw), and all median egg concentrations were above or near 6.0 μg/g dw, which is a conservative threshold value for reproductive impairment. Most knowledge gaps we identified for water, sediment, and biota were interrelated, and the use of integrated approaches to address knowledge gaps can provide greater insight into the drivers behind selenium hazards. Integrated water, sediment, and biota studies could help identify cost-effective management solutions that serve multiple purposes. A comprehensive analysis of the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and food-web processes in wetlands and other habitats can inform predictive models to identify drivers of selenium bioavailability, uptake from the environment and subsequent trophic transfer, ultimately forming the basis for experimental habitat management manipulations to minimize selenium hazards to wildlife. Furthermore, a comprehensive, long-term sampling and analytical laboratory plan would enable comparison of data among different entities that are sampling at the Salton Sea. Such efforts are well suited to help fill knowledge gaps that preclude understanding of selenium hazards and future management options for biota using Salton Sea habitats, including newly formed wetlands throughout the region. All data compiled for this report are available in two U.S. Geological Survey data releases: Groover and others (2022) for water and sediment samples and De La Cruz and others (2022) for biological samples. The data releases include all publicly available data for selenium concentrations in water, sediment, and biological samples collected in and around the Salton Sea, including the Coachella and Imperial Valleys. The data releases also include previously unpublished data.

California↗

USGS2023

Coherence among Oregon Coast coho salmon populations highlights increasing relative importance of marine conditions for productivity

Anadromous fishes, such as Pacific salmon, spend portions of their life cycle in freshwater and marine systems, thus rendering them susceptible to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. These stressors operate at different spatiotemporal scales, whereby freshwater conditions are more likely to impact single populations or subpopulations, while marine conditions are more likely to act on entire evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). Coherence in population parameters like survival and productivity can therefore serve as an indicator of relative influence. The goal of this study was to elucidate scale-dependent shifts in Oregon Coast coho salmon productivity. We used a multivariate state-space approach to analyze almost 60 years of stock-recruitment data for the Oregon Coast ESU. Analyses were conducted separately for time periods prior to and after 1990 to account for improvements in abundance estimation methods and significant changes in conservation and management strategies. Prior to 1990, productivity declined for most Oregon Coast populations, especially through the 1980s. From 1990–onward, coherence increased, and trends tracked closely with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The latter period is associated with reductions in harvest rates and hatchery production such that the relative influence of the marine environment may have grown more apparent following the removal of these stressors. Furthermore, the link between productivity and NPGO is consistent with trends observed for several other Pacific salmon ESUs. If Oregon Coast coho salmon populations become more synchronous, managers can expect to face new challenges driven by reductions in the population portfolio effect and increasingly variable marine conditions due to climate change.

Fisheries Oceanography↗

USGS2022

Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and economic value to sea-level rise in a Puget Sound estuary

Sea-level rise (SLR) and obstructions to sediment delivery pose challenges to the persistence of estuarine habitats and the ecosystem services they provide. Restoration actions and sediment management strategies may help mitigate such challenges by encouraging the vertical accretion of sediment in and horizontal migration of tidal forests and marshes. We used a process-based soil accretion model (Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model) combined with a habitat classification model (MOSAICS) to estimate the effects of SLR, suspended sediment, and inland habitat migration on estuarine habitats, soil carbon accumulation, and economic value of climate change mitigation of carbon accumulation (social cost of carbon dioxide) in a macrotidal estuary in the northwest USA over 100 years (2011 to 2110). Under present-day sediment levels, we projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 100 cm SLR, but substantial area converted to transitional (low) salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 100 cm SLR. Increasing sediment availability increased the projected resilience of transitional salt marsh to SLR but did not prevent declines in high marsh area. Projected total carbon accumulation plateaued or declined with ≥ 100 cm SLR, yet the economic value of carbon accumulation continued to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service was resilient to SLR. Doubling or tripling sediment availability increased projected carbon accumulation up to 7.69 and 14.2 kg m −2 and increased total economic value up to $373,000 and $710,000, respectively. Allowing marsh migration supported conversion of upland to freshwater marsh, with slight increases in carbon accumulation. These results inform climate adaptation planning for wetland managers seeking to understand the resilience of estuarine habitats and ecosystem services to SLR under multiple management strategies.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Carbon flux, storage, and wildlife co-benefits in a restoring estuary

Tidal marsh restorations may result in transitional mudflat habitats depending on hydrological and geomorphological conditions. Compared to tidal marsh, mudflats are thought to have limited value for carbon sequestration, carbon storage, and foraging benefits for salmon. We evaluated greenhouse gas exchange, sediment carbon storage, and invertebrate production at restoration and reference tidal marsh sites within the Nisqually River Delta, Puget Sound, Washington. Within the first seven years, the restoration site was a sparsely vegetated mudflat that didn't sequester atmospheric CO2; but, had sediment carbon accumulation rates similar to the reference site due to allochthonous carbon subsidies from nearby mature marshes. Compared to other estuarine habitat types, the tidal marsh supported the greatest production of energy-rich insect prey for juvenile salmon; yet, the restoration site produced similar, and at times elevated, invertebrate prey resources and prey energy compared to the reference site. As a result, salmon that foraged within the restoration site gained measurable benefits as indicated by their bioenergetic growth potential. The restoration site received carbon subsidies from the broader estuarine landscape for both sediment carbon accumulation and invertebrate prey production. These findings demonstrate the importance of habitat connectivity and show how blue carbon and wildlife co-benefits are closely intertwined.

Washington↗

USGS2021

A climate-mediated shift in the estuarine habitat mosaic limits prey availability and reduces nursery quality for juvenile salmon

The estuarine habitat mosaic supports the reproduction, growth, and survival of resident and migratory fish species by providing a diverse portfolio of unique habitats with varying physical and biological features. Global climate change is expected to result in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and changes in riverine hydrology, which will have profound effects on the extent and composition of the estuarine habitat mosaic and its associated nursery quality for juvenile fish. We used a spatially explicit bioenergetics model to assess how different climate change scenarios might affect juvenile salmon growth rate potential relative to present day conditions in the Nisqually River Delta, WA, USA. The model indicated that prey-rich habitats such as emergent salt marshes and eelgrass meadows were most likely to facilitate growth, and that reductions in their areal extent and accessibility could have severe consequences for salmon. For instance, unmitigated sea-level rise halved the predicted extent of low- and high-elevation emergent salt marsh, leading to a 30% reduction in end-of-season weights. Increasing water temperatures compounded these effects during the late spring and summer such that the average daily growth rate of an individual fish decreased by an additional 5–50% when compared to the effects of sea-level rise alone. Lethal temperatures (> 24 °C) were infrequently observed, but they were more likely to occur during summer low tides in the mudflat and eelgrass habitats when accessibility to prey-rich marsh was minimal, thereby limiting foraging capacity and the availability of thermal refugia. Our findings indicate that, barring the enactment of targeted management strategies, rising tidal levels and increasing ocean temperatures may reduce the quality of the estuarine habitat mosaic for out-migrating salmon and other sensitive fish species.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Carbon sources in the sediments of a restoring vs. historically unaltered salt marsh

Salt marshes provide the important ecosystem service of carbon storage in their sediments; however, little is known about the sources of such carbon and whether they differ between historically unaltered and restoring systems. In this study, stable isotope analysis was used to quantify carbon sources in a restoring, sparsely vegetated marsh (Restoring) and an adjacent, historically unaltered marsh (Reference) in the Nisqually River Delta (NRD) of Washington, USA. Three sediment cores were collected at “Inland” and “Seaward” locations at both marshes ~ 6 years after restoration. Benthic diatoms, C3 plants, C4 plants, and particulate organic matter (POM) were collected throughout the NRD. δ 13 C and δ 15 N values of sources and sediments were used in a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model to determine the contribution of each carbon source to the sediments of both marshes. Autochthonous marsh C3 plants contributed 73 ± 10% (98 g C m −2 year −1 ) and 89 ± 11% (119 g C m −2 year −1 ) to Reference-Inland and Reference-Seaward sediment carbon sinks, respectively. In contrast, the sediment carbon sink at the Restoring Marsh received a broad assortment of predominantly allochthonous materials, which varied in relative contribution based on source distance and abundance. Marsh POM contributed the most to Restoring-Seaward (42 ± 34%) (69 g C m −2 year −1 ) followed by Riverine POM at Restoring-Inland (32 ± 41%) (52 g C m −2 year −1 ). Overall, this study demonstrates that largely unvegetated, restoring marshes can accumulate carbon by relying predominantly on allochthonous material, which comes mainly from the most abundant and closest estuarine sources. ces.

Washington↗

USGS2019

A mosaic of estuarine habitat types with prey resources from multiple environmental strata supports a diversified foraging portfolio for juvenile Chinook salmon

Estuaries provide vital nursery habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by promoting an ecological portfolio effect, whereby multiple habitat types and environmental strata maximize foraging opportunities for out-migrating salmon by varying the abundance and composition of prey through space and time. To study this portfolio effect, we evaluated the foraging capacity of five estuarine habitat types within the Nisqually River Delta (Puget Sound, Washington, USA). Within each habitat, we sampled invertebrate prey resources from the terrestrial, aquatic, benthic, and epifaunal strata and compared them to juvenile salmon diets from corresponding sampling events. We found that the emergent salt marsh supplied twice as much aquatic prey biomass as any other habitat (720–5523 mg/m3), followed by the mudflat (246–2543 mg/m3) and eelgrass (Zostera marina; 141–2694 mg/m3) habitats. Despite some evidence for selectivity, juvenile salmon diets exhibited substantial compositional overlap, especially when compared to among-habitat differences in available prey resources. Fish that were captured in salt marsh, mudflat, and eelgrass consumed aquatic crustaceans such as mysids, while fish captured upriver in forested and transitional marshes ate a higher proportion of adult and larval insects. The availability and consumption of greater quantities of energy-poor crustaceans in the salt marsh and lower quantities of energy-rich insects upriver highlights a quantity-for-quality tradeoff among estuarine habitats. Our findings indicate that the timing, productivity, and diversity of prey across multiple habitat types and environmental strata determine an estuary’s capacity to support foraging for multiple life history strategies, size classes, and cohorts of juvenile salmon.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Freshwater tidal forests and estuarine wetlands may confer early life growth advantages for delta-reared Chinook Salmon

Large river deltas are complex ecosystems that are believed to play a pivotal role in promoting the early marine growth and survival of threatened Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . We used a fish bioenergetics model to assess the functional role of multiple delta habitats across a gradient of salinities and vegetation types, where consumption and growth rate potential (GRP) were considered as proxies for habitat quality. We subsequently compared our model output to empirical, or realized , growth estimates from scale circuli. In terms of consumption, prey energy density (ED prey ) was 46–86% higher in tidal freshwater forest than in any other habitat type, while estimated consumption rates (expressed as proportion of maximum daily consumption; P cmax ) were positively correlated with FL. These size‐related differences in P cmax led to a noticeable increase along a freshwater‐to‐saline gradient from roughly 0.25 in tidal freshwater forest to 0.55 in the offshore subtidal zone, yet despite higher observed P cmax values in nearshore and offshore habitats, the tidal freshwater forest and emergent salt marsh demonstrated the highest modeled GRP values. Similarly, realized growth rates for fish caught in tidal freshwater forest were up to 0.5% higher per day than for fish caught in the offshore area, but habitat‐level differences were overshadowed by allometry and rearing origin. Scales from unmarked fish (assumed to be of wild origin) indicated that they grew, on average, 11% faster than did hatchery fish; however, these differences were subtle and were more obvious at fork lengths <100 mm. Our results suggest that tidal forests and emergent marshes may offer early life growth advantages for wild Chinook Salmon, but that wild and hatchery fish can compensate as they move seaward by opportunistically consuming greater quantities of low‐energy density prey, taking advantage of pulses of larval forage fish, or by spending time in multiple interconnected habitat types.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗