Geology topics
Megan J. Haserodt
Publications and source records attributed to Megan J. Haserodt.
Simulating present and future groundwater/surface-water interactions and stream temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
In many places, coldwater ecosystems are facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic warming. This study examined stream temperatures and the water balance in the Beaver Creek watershed on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska—an area that is experiencing rapid warming. Low-gradient streams near the Kenai coast provide important spawning and rearing habitat for salmon but may be especially vulnerable to rising temperatures, because of long residence times, inflows from abundant riparian wetlands, and reliance on groundwater discharge that may also warm, or decrease in volume with rising evapotranspiration. In recent decades, observed maximum 7-day temperatures have consistently exceeded statistical (regression-based) projections. Here we simulate total streamflows and temperatures with a physics-based model that links the Soil Water Balance, MODFLOW 6 and SNTEMP simulation codes on a 7-day timestep. The model is based on existing data and groundwater levels, instream flows, and stream temperatures collected during 2019–23. Future climate scenarios were developed for 2023–50 from downscaled climate projections. Results indicate that groundwater discharge is about 64 percent of the total streamflow during the months of May through September. Total streamflow and groundwater discharge are expected to remain similar to current conditions through 2050. Stream temperatures are expected to rise; by midcentury, near the Beaver Creek mouth the model predicts 34 to 63 additional days per year with average weekly temperatures above 13 degrees Celsius, 14 to 81 additional days with average weekly temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius, and routine exceedances of 20 degrees Celsius during the warmest periods. Projected stream temperatures vary spatially. Areas of high groundwater inflows in the lower main stem and some tributaries may be most resilient to warming air temperatures during dry conditions. During storm events, groundwater-dominated tributaries may have the coolest stream temperatures.
Simulation of groundwater flow at the former Badger Army Ammunition Plant, Sauk County, Wisconsin
To help support remedial efforts at the former Badger Army Ammunition Plant the U.S. Geological Survey built and calibrated a transient groundwater flow model using the Newton Raphson formulation (MODFLOW–NWT) of the U.S. Geological Survey’s modular three-dimensional finite-difference code. The model simulates the groundwater flow system at the site from 1984 to 2020. The former Badger Army Ammunition Plant is a 7,275-acre site in Sauk County, Wisconsin. The plant produced smokeless gunpower and solid rocket propellent as munitions components. Peak production periods were during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Subsequent groundwater contamination investigations have found four plumes at the site. A health risk assessment identified at least one contaminant of concern for human health risk present in three of the plumes: the propellant burning ground plume, the deterrent burning ground plume, and the central plume. A cooperative study began between the U.S. Army Environmental Command and U.S. Geological Survey to better understand the groundwater flow system at the former Badger Army Ammunition Plant. Field data, including aquifer tests, streamflow measurements, continuous groundwater elevations, and groundwater gradients with the Wisconsin River were collected and used to inform and calibrate the groundwater flow model. The model was used to assess the variability of the groundwater system over the study period, the components of the groundwater budget, and groundwater flow directions from identified source areas towards the Wisconsin River. Model performance assessment focused on using particle tracking to compare groundwater flowpaths that originate in the contaminant source areas to the observed plume footprints. This focus on plume behavior geometry should help constrain the advective component of a future groundwater transport model of the site.
Hydrologic change in the St. Louis River Basin from iron mining on the Mesabi Iron Range, northeastern Minnesota
This study compares the results of two regional steady-state U.S. Geological Survey Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow (MODFLOW) models constructed to quantify the hydrologic changes in the St. Louis River Basin from iron mining on the Mesabi Iron Range in northeastern Minnesota. The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated in this study with bands of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe, and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency to inform management decisions about aquatic resources in the St. Louis River Basin. A model constructed and calibrated to represent average 1995–2015 mining conditions produced regional groundwater heads and flows. A pre-mining scenario model was constructed from this mining model but had the land and bedrock surfaces restored to pre-mining topographies and had modeled mining features (mine pits, tailings basins, waste-rock piles, and mining-disturbed areas) eliminated to represent general pre-mining stratigraphy and hydrogeology. Many of the features important to the hydrology of this mining area (like individual mine pits) are difficult to represent in groundwater models and required the use of modeling tools to indirectly account for their effects. The difference between the results of these two models represents mining’s effects on the hydrology in the Mesabi Iron Range area of the St Louis River Basin. The mining and pre-mining regional models also can provide boundary conditions and initial properties for future local or site-specific groundwater-flow models in the area. Total groundwater flow through the mining model is 171 million cubic feet per day. Areal recharge is the largest source of groundwater (78 and 81 percent of total groundwater flow in the mining and pre-mining scenario models, respectively). Seepage from streams and lakes provides another 17 percent of the total groundwater flow through both models. Water leaves aquifers through seepage to streams (discharge as base flow, 43 percent in both models) and areal seepage to the land surface (surface seepage), for example to wetlands (45 and 49 percent, mining and pre-mining scenario models respectively). Comparison of the results from the mining and pre-mining scenario models shows that iron mining has produced measurable hydrologic changes in the St. Louis River Basin, but that most of those changes and the highest magnitude changes occur near the mining features. Flow changes to and from surface-water bodies like streams and wetlands were analyzed in detail because of their importance in sustaining surface waters and aquatic life. Overall, groundwater flow in the mining model was 3.62 million cubic feet per day (2.2 percent) greater than total pre-mining model groundwater flow. This was caused by an increase in recharge from tailings basins and a decrease in discharge from surface seepage. Groundwater discharge to mine pits was the largest change in groundwater flows between the models (a change representing 2.8 percent of total pre-mining model groundwater flow). Net recharge to groundwater from tailings basins (2.4 percent), net decrease in surface seepage from groundwater (2.7 percent), and net increase in seepage to streams (1.0 percent) were all in this same range of total pre-mining model groundwater flow. Groundwater lost through mine-pit withdrawals was nearly offset by groundwater gained through recharge from tailings basins. However, because losses and gains occurred in different areas, the effect of mining can have more substantial effects on local areas than the model-wide averages represent.
Simulation of regional groundwater flow and groundwater/lake interactions in the Central Sands, Wisconsin
A multiscale, multiprocess modeling approach was applied to the Wisconsin Central Sands region in central Wisconsin to quantify the connections between the groundwater system, land use, and lake levels in three seepage lakes in Waushara County, Wisconsin: Long and Plainfield (The Plainfield Tunnel Channel Lakes), and Pleasant Lakes. A regional groundwater-flow model, the Newton Raphson formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model groundwater-modeling package (MODFLOW-NWT), centered on the lakes, was used to extend regional surface-water boundaries to provide boundary conditions for two focused inset models, in the hydrologic simulation modeling package (MODFLOW 6), at higher resolution around the lakes. Land use and groundwater use were simulated at a regional scale using the Soil Water Balance model, which provided recharge and water-use boundary conditions for the MODFLOW models. Agricultural irrigation is the primary groundwater use in the area. Land and groundwater-use scenarios representing no irrigation, current (2018) irrigation, and potential future irrigation were simulated with the groundwater-flow model and the lake levels over a 38-year representative climate period.
Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Partridge River Basin and evaluation of hypothetical future mine pits, Minnesota
The Partridge River Basin (PRB) covers 156 square miles in northeastern Minnesota with headwaters in the Mesabi Iron Range. The basin is characterized by extensive wetlands, lakes, and streams in poorly drained and often thin glacial material overlying Proterozoic bedrock. To better understand the interaction between these extensive surface water features and the groundwater system, a three-dimensional, steady-state, groundwater-flow model of the PRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission using the finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state base flow in streams and groundwater interactions using the streamflow routing (SFR2) package. Existing mining features including tailings basins, stockpiles, pumped mine pits, and flooded mine pits were simulated using either high hydraulic conductivity zones or the drain (DRN) package. The unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package was used to better represent the groundwater system in areas with a high water table and for wetlands often associated with such areas. UZF typically is used to represent unsaturated zone processes but also can simulate the rejection of recharge and groundwater discharge to the land surface when the water table is near land surface. The steady-state model used data from the 2011 to 2013 period when 2011 high-resolution land surface (light detecting and ranging [lidar]) data were available that reflected land-surface and water elevations from mining activity in the basin. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST_HP was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels, streamflow, pit inflow rates, and mapped peat deposits. The PEST calibration used the target residuals from two models with the same model parameters and targets from two separate periods: (1) a 1995–2015 calibration model, which provided a larger number of calibration targets, and (2) a 2011–2013 mining conditions model, which included calibration targets that reflected conditions consistent with the modeled mine-workings topography. Calibration of the PRB model resulted in ranges of glacial horizontal hydraulic conductivity parameters that generally agreed with literature values and other models of the region. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher in the upper bedrock layers where numerous and continuous fractures have been observed and lower in the deeper bedrock layers. Average basin-wide calibrated infiltration was 5.3 inches per year. An average of 4.6 inches per year of infiltration crosses the water table and becomes recharge and 0.7 inch per year is rejected by UZF due to saturated conditions at the land surface. Simulated groundwater runoff (the sum of rejected recharge and groundwater seepage to the land surface) can either be routed to streams or removed from the model as evapotranspiration. The calibrated model indicates relatively shallow groundwater-flow paths dominating and approximately 50 percent of the stream base flow coming from groundwater runoff. The 2011–2013 mining conditions model was then used to develop five model scenarios simulating the response of the groundwater and surface-water system to potential hydrologic stress. The purpose of these mine pit scenarios is to present a possible workflow to quantify a model’s uncertainty for a given model forecast and serve as a possible guide for initial data collection that may improve a future model’s ability to make such a forecast. The scenarios included one scenario with the currently existing Peter Mitchell pit at final buildout and flooded to an elevation of 1,500 feet, and four scenarios with a hypothetical, new mine pit plus the flooded Peter Mitchell at final buildout. The five model scenarios were used to forecast streamflow at six locations in the PRB, pit inflow rates for the new mine pits and the flooded Peter Mitchell pit, and the average depth to water in 12 wetlands. A linear uncertainty analysis was performed using information from the PEST calibration and tools in the PyEMU python package to assess model uncertainty propagation to the model forecasts. Streamflows generally were reduced with future mining and the greatest streamflow reductions occurred from the flooded Peter Mitchell Pit, probably due to its large size. Average depth to groundwater in wetlands was most affected the closer the wetland was to a new mine pit. Linear uncertainty methods were also used to evaluate data worth, which is the ability for potential new groundwater elevation observations to reduce the uncertainty in scenario forecasts. Data worth was performed for a grid of new hydraulic head observations. Overall, areas with nonnegligible data worth generally corresponded to wetland areas with no groundwater seepage to land surface from UZF. These model behaviors indicated that the land-surface boundary condition simulated by the UZF package was pinning the groundwater elevations to the land surface in areas with groundwater seepage (33 percent of the 2011–2013 base conditions model) such that the sensitivity to new observations in these areas was minimal. Therefore, representing wetlands as boundary conditions minimized the usefulness of data worth calculations because wetland areas were present over a large part of the model domain. Probabilistic capture zones were estimated for each of the mines in the model scenarios. A capture zone represents the area contributing recharge to a model feature, like a well or a mine pit, and can be calculated by forward tracking particles from the water table. By using Monte Carlo techniques, it is possible to generate estimated capture zones that include the probability of recharge capture given the uncertainty present in the model. Monte Carlo techniques use randomly generated model parameter sets sampled from a plausible parameter range to create many possible realizations. The resulting capture zone arrays were calculated by tallying the total number of realizations in which a particle from a model cell was captured by the feature. Probabilities from the Monte Carlo runs ranged from 1 (captured in 100 percent of the runs) near the pits to 0 (captured in 0 percent of the runs) at the edges of the capture zone. Capture zones were not always spatially continuous; for example, the capture zone for the proposed mine pits south of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit was discontinuous with capture surrounding the proposed mine pit and north of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit. This northern section represents deeper groundwater flow paths that originate in the topographic high, move under the flooded pit, and discharge into the proposed pit. This pattern of capture indicates the possibility of some deeper flow through the upper fractured bedrock when the shallow groundwater flow system is modified. These results underscore that future site-specific applications of the base condition model require the input of site-specific data and recalibration to focus on the site of interest.
Assessment of groundwater trends near Crex Meadows, Wisconsin
Crex Meadows Wildlife Area (Crex) is a 30,000-acre property in Burnett County, Wisconsin. Crex is managed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) with the goal of providing public recreation opportunities while also protecting the quality of native ecological communities and species on the property. The WDNR’s management strategy includes controlling water levels at flowages in Crex using a system of dikes, water control structures, ditches, and a diversion pump. For the past several decades there has been concern among nearby landowners that the water manage-ment strategy at Crex may be contributing to groundwater flooding in adjacent, privately held properties. This issue has been particularly contentious during periods when regional groundwater elevations are already high. This study was conducted in response to those concerns. For the study, a network of 12 monitoring wells was installed in and to the west of Crex. Groundwater elevations were recorded in the wells before, during, and after water-level changes in the western Crex flowages to assess if groundwater elevations to the west of Crex are detectably affected by the flowage water levels. This study successfully collected groundwater elevations in 11 study wells during a 3-month period in 2019 when water elevations in the Dike 6 flowage and Erickson flowage were lowered and then raised. The data logger at a 12th location failed and no data were recorded. The groundwater elevation trends in these study wells were compared with groundwater elevation trends at a regional U.S. Geological Survey well to provide information for determining if changing the flowage elevations had a noticeable response in the study wells west of Crex Meadows. This analysis was done by (1) evaluating study well groundwater elevation trends compared to the regional well, (2) using a scatter plot of study well and regional well data during raising and lowering periods, (3) assessing horizontal hydraulic gradient data during the study period, and (4) assessing the cumulative departure from the mean groundwater elevation for each well. Overall, regional groundwater elevations had a down-ward trend before and during the flowage lowering period and then had an upward trend during the flowage raising period. This pattern was observed in the regional well and in all the study wells adjacent to and several miles from the flowages. The similarity in patterns indicates that precipitation and regional groundwater flow conditions were the dominant drivers of the system during the study period. The scatter plot and cumulative departure from the mean analysis showed that in addition to regional trends, wells 1, 6, and 7 were likely affected by the changes in the flowage water levels. Overall, at least on the timescale of this study, water management at Crex likely did not have detectable effects on wells outside the Crex property. Wells installed on the Crex property including the wells in the lakebeds of the flowages (wells 1 and 7) and possibly well 6 east of the flowages showed what seems to be minor affects due to water management at Crex.
Appendix C: Central sands lakes study technical report: Modeling documentation
This report provides the necessary documentation of the numerical models developed for the Central Sands Lake study in central Wisconsin and will be included as a technical appendix in the report to the Wisconsin State Legislature by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) in response to 2017 Wisconsin Act 10. This legislation directed WDNR to determine whether existing and potential groundwater withdrawals are causing or are likely to cause significant reduction of mean seasonal water levels at Pleasant Lake, Long Lake, and Plainfield Lake (s. 281.34(7m)(2)(b), Wis. Stats.) in Waushara County, Wisconsin. To evaluate the potential hydrologic connection between groundwater withdrawals and the nearby study lakes, hydrologic models were created that focused on the lakes of interest and yet were large enough to cover a broad enough region to extend to the major hydrologic boundaries of the natural flow system. The areas near the lakes require finer-scale grid discretization (or spacing) to better represent the lakes and streams in the model, but also need to cover a large enough area to include the groundwater withdrawal locations that have the potential to cause reduction in water levels in the lakes. To accomplish these goals, three groundwater models were created: a regional model extending to major hydrologic boundaries; and two inset models, inheriting boundaries from the regional model but focused near the lakes. Each of the inset models, in turn, included a detailed area close to the lakes surrounded by an area at the same spatial scale as the regional model (Figure 1). To support WDNR in evaluating the connection between groundwater withdrawals and lake levels, a representative time period was required over which to compare land use with and without irrigated agriculture and for WDNR to evaluate potential lake stage and flux changes related to irrigated agriculture. WDNR chose the climate period of 1981-2018 to be representative of a typical period and provided two land use scenarios—one with no irrigated agriculture and one with assumed crop rotations similar to current conditions—to simulate with groundwater models to, then, compare lake responses with. As a result, simulations over this climate record are not intended to recreate the history of 1981-2018 because land use changed over that time. These runs are, instead, intended to provide a basis on which to compare land use with and without irrigation-related groundwater withdrawals based on the current arrangement of land use and a varied climatic record. Groundwater withdrawals focused on irrigated-agriculture-related water use because greater than 95% of groundwater withdrawal in the two inset models around the study lakes is for irrigated agriculture water use. The period of 2012-2018 was used for parameter estimation (synonymously referred to as “history matching”) for the groundwater models. This time period was chosen because it includes the most complete water use records to simulate groundwater withdrawals. History matching was performed using groundwater elevations, lake stages, and streamflow observations over the 2012-2018 time period and processed observations derived from those raw data. Climatic data were incorporated into the model using a soil-water balance approach. A soil water balance model was constructed at the scale of the regional groundwater model to both calculate recharge based on land use and climate, and in the long-term climate-period runs, to estimate water use required by irrigated agriculture to apply as well boundary conditions in the groundwater model in the absence of reported water use values over that period.
Hydrology of Haskell Lake and investigation of a groundwater contamination plume, Lac du Flambeau Reservation, Wisconsin
Haskell Lake is a shallow, 89-acre drainage lake in the headwaters of the Squirrel River, on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation in northern Wisconsin. The lake has long been valued by the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians (LDF Tribe) for abundant wild rice and game fish. In recent decades, however, wild rice has mostly disappeared from the lake and the fishery has declined. A petroleum contamination plume discovered in the 1990s in the shallow aquifer upgradient from the northern end of the lake poses a threat to the ecological health of the lake and the aquifer, which is the sole drinking water source for nearby residents and businesses. Understanding of the lake’s hydrology is important to the LDF Tribe as they seek to restore wild rice and maintain the ecological health of the Haskell Lake/Tower Creek watershed. An improved understanding of lithology in the area of the contamination plume, documentation of a contamination pathway from groundwater in the plume source area to Haskell Lake, and an understanding of the plume extent beneath the lake are needed to advance remediation efforts. Evaluation of the fraction of groundwater discharge that is contaminated relative to the overall lake water budget is desired as a first step towards determining the extent of ecological effects from the plume. A cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the LDF Tribe was initiated to quantify the lake water budget and the sources of water to the lake, to provide a rough estimate of the maximum quantity of groundwater discharge to the lake that may be contaminated, and to improve the conceptual understanding of the plume extent and subsurface materials in the area of contamination. The results of this study can help inform natural resource management of the Haskell Lake/Tower Creek watershed, including planned wild rice restoration and cleanup of the contaminant plume. During 2016–17, field data on lake and groundwater levels, gradients, fluxes, and subsurface lithology were collected using a variety of techniques that ranged from basic measurement of water levels and streamflows to distributed temperature sensing, vertical temperature profiling, and several shallow geophysical methods. The data were used to inform a MODFLOW–NWT model that simulated the contributing groundwatershed, including the water budget for Haskell Lake and Tower Creek using the Lake, Streamflow-Routing, and Unsaturated Zone-Flow Packages. Particle tracking with the MODFLOW solution (using MODPATH 6) was used to improve understanding of the downgradient extent of the contamination plume, estimate groundwater flux through the plume area, and delineate the groundwater contributing area (groundwatershed) for the lake/creek system. Linear uncertainty estimates for model results were computed during model parameter estimation using the software package PEST++. Results indicate groundwater discharge along the perimeter of Haskell Lake, with groundwater accounting for about 22 (± 11.5) percent of the lake water budget. Field data and particle tracking results indicate discharge of the entire contamination plume to Haskell Lake. Although the exact locations where contaminated groundwater enters the lake are unknown, the downgradient extent of the plume beneath Haskell Lake is likely limited to within about 700 feet from the shore. Groundwater flux through the plume accounts for at most about 1.4 percent of total groundwater discharge to Haskell Lake, or about 0.3 percent of the lake water budget. Most groundwater discharging to Haskell Lake and Tower Creek originates as terrestrial recharge. A lesser amount originates in or passes through neighboring lakes, including Buckskin, Crawling Stone, Broken Bow, Tippecanoe, and Jerms Lakes, as well as several unnamed kettles. The average age of simulated groundwater discharge to the lake is about 20 years.
Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system in the St. Louis River basin, Minnesota
The St. Louis River Basin (SLRB) covers 3,600 square miles in northeastern Minnesota, with headwaters in the Mesabi Range and extensive wetlands and lakes throughout the basin. To better understand the regional groundwater system in the SLRB, a two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the SLRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Ojibwe Bands, using the analytic-element computer code GFLOW. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels and streamflows. The calibrated regional model was locally refined to create a smaller version of the model, the central SLRB model, that was used to evaluate hydrologic effects from extensive ditching in wetlands of the central SLRB. The refinements included adding ditches that were not represented in the regional model and modifying the aquifer base elevation to be more representative of the localized area. The central SLRB model was recalibrated to better match the distribution of mapped wetlands. Two scenarios were run of the central SLRB model: one with ditches and one without ditches. The model results were compared between the two scenarios to assess the effect of ditching on the groundwater system and potential changes to hydrologic conditions that support wetlands. Calibration of the regional SRLB model resulted in average horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 6–39 feet per day for the glacial deposits and 3–4 feet per day for the uppermost fractured bedrock in the Biwabik Iron-Formation on the Mesabi Range. Average recharge across the calibrated model was 5.9 inches per year. Linesink resistance for the routed stream network was calibrated by using resistance categories based on the mapped soil hydrologic groups. The modeled regional groundwater-flow direction was generally to the south near the Mesabi Range topographic high and south or southwest across the rest of the basin. The updated calibration of the central SLRB model resulted in average horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 5–36 feet per day for the glacial deposits and 3 feet per day for the uppermost fractured Biwabik Iron-Formation of the Mesabi Range. Average recharge across the ditch scenarios was 4.1 inches per year. Comparison of the preditch and postditch model scenarios showed that ditching reduced the area where the modeled water table was within 1 foot of the land surface (a wetland hydrology indicator) in as much as 40,000 acres, or 37 percent, of mapped permanent wetlands in the SLRB. An increase in the depth to the water table in wetland areas has the potential to degrade wetland persistence or function.
Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers
The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.
Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin
Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).