Geology topics

Matthew L. Kirwan

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew L. Kirwan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2022

Processes and mechanisms of coastal woody-plant mortality

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO 2 , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO 2 , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2022

Temperature optimum for marsh resilience and carbon accumulation revealed in a whole ecosystem warming experiment

Coastal marshes are globally important, carbon dense ecosystems simultaneously maintained and threatened by sea-level rise. Warming temperatures may increase wetland plant productivity and organic matter accumulation, but temperature-modulated feedbacks between productivity and decomposition make it difficult to assess how wetlands and their thick, organic rich soils will respond to climate warming. Here, we actively increased aboveground plant-surface and below-ground soil temperatures in two marsh plant communities, and found that a moderate amount of warming (1.7°C above ambient temperatures) consistently maximized root growth, marsh elevation gain, and below-ground carbon accumulation. Marsh elevation loss observed at higher temperatures was associated with increased carbon mineralization and increased microtopographic heterogeneity, a potential early warning signal of marsh drowning. Maximized elevation and below-ground carbon accumulation for moderate warming scenarios uniquely suggest linkages between metabolic theory of individuals and landscape-scale ecosystem resilience and function, but our work indicates nonpermanent benefits as global temperatures continue to rise.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2022

Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) and declining sediment supply often depends on the ability of marshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that far exceed field-based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from seven U.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes from around the world to illustrate that—over continental scales—70% of variability in marsh accretion rates can be explained by suspended sediment concentratin (SSC) and spring tidal range (TR). Apparent discrepancies between models and measurements can be explained by differing responses in high marshes and low marshes, the latter of which accretes faster for a given SSC and TR. Together these results help bridge the gap between models and measurements, and reinforce the paradigm that sediment supply is the key determinant of wetland vulnerability at continental scales.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗

USGS2021

Experimental tree mortality does not induce marsh transgression in a Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest

Transgression into adjacent uplands is an important global response of coastal wetlands to accelerated rates of sea level rise. “Ghost forests” mark a signature characteristic of marsh transgression on the landscape, as changes in tidal inundation and salinity cause bordering upland tree mortality, increase light availability, and the emergence of tidal marsh species due to reduced competition. To investigate these mechanisms of the marsh migration process, we conducted a field experiment to simulate a natural disturbance event (e.g., storm-induced flooding) by inducing the death of established trees (coastal loblolly pine, Pinus taeda ) at the marsh-upland forest ecotone. After this simulated disturbance in 2014, we monitored changes in vegetation along an elevation gradient in control and treatment areas to determine if disturbance can lead to an ecosystem shift from forested upland to wetland vegetation. Light availability initially increased in the disturbed area, leading to an increase in biodiversity of vegetation with early successional grass and shrub species. However, over the course of this 5-year experiment, there was no increase in inundation in the disturbed areas relative to the control and pine trees recolonized becoming the dominant plant cover in the disturbed study areas. Thus, in the 5 years since the disturbance, there has been no overall shift in species composition toward more hydrophytic vegetation that would be indicative of marsh transgression with the removal of trees. These findings suggest that disturbance is necessary but not sufficient alone for transgression to occur. Unless hydrological characteristics suppress tree re-growth within a period of several years following disturbance, the regenerating trees will shade and outcompete any migrating wetland vegetation species. Our results suggest that complex interactions between disturbance, biotic resistance, and slope help determine the potential for marsh transgression.

Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest↗

USGS2021

Sea-level rise enhances carbon accumulation in United States tidal wetlands

Coastal wetlands accumulate soil carbon more efficiently than terrestrial systems, but sea level rise potentially threatens the persistence of this prominent carbon sink. Here, we combine a published dataset of 372 soil carbon accumulation rates from across the United States with new analysis of 131 sites in coastal Louisiana and find that the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR) explains 80% of regional variation in carbon accumulation. A carbon mass balance for the rapidly submerging Louisiana coast demonstrates that carbon accumulation rates in surviving marshes increase with RSLR and currently exceed the rate of carbon loss due to marsh drowning and erosion. Although continued erosion will eventually lead to net carbon loss, together these results suggest a strong negative carbon-climate feedback for coastal marshes, where even submerging marshes sequester carbon at rates that increase with RSLR.

California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgi↗

USGS2020

Coastal marsh degradation into ponds induces irreversible elevation loss relative to sea level

Coastal marshes and their valuable ecosystem services are feared to be lost by sea level rise, yet the mechanisms of marsh degradation into ponds and potential recovery are poorly understood. We quantified and analyzed elevations of marsh surfaces and pond bottoms along a marsh loss gradient (Blackwater River, Maryland, USA). Our analyses show that ponds deepen with increasing tidal channel width connecting the ponds to the river, indicating a new feedback mechanism where channels lead to enhanced tidal export of pond bottom material. Pond elevations also decrease with increasing pond size, consistent with previous work identifying a positive feedback between wind wave erosion and pond size. These two positive feedbacks, combined with bimodal elevation distributions and sharp topographic boundaries between interior ponds and the marsh platform, indicate alternative elevation states and imply that marsh loss by pond formation is nearly irreversible once pond deepening exceeds a critical level.

Maryland↗

USGS2017

Reply to ‘Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise’

Response to Parkinson et al. Rebuttal of Kirwan, M. L., Temmerman, S., Skeehan, E. E., Guntenspergen, G. R.,& Fagherazzi, S. (2016). Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise. Nature Climate Change, 6(3):253-2601.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2017

Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation

A declining rate of recovery following disturbance has been proposed as an important early warning for impending tipping points in complex systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, this ‘critical slowing down’ remains largely untested in the complex settings of real-world ecosystems. Here, we provide both observational and experimental support of critical slowing down along natural stress gradients in tidal marsh ecosystems. Time series of aerial images of European marsh development reveal a consistent lengthening of recovery time as inundation stress increases. We corroborate this finding with transplantation experiments in European and North American tidal marshes. In particular, our results emphasize the power of direct observational or experimental measures of recovery over indirect statistical signatures, such as spatial variance or autocorrelation. Our results indicate that the phenomenon of critical slowing down can provide a powerful tool to probe the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2017

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr −1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr −1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr −1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2017

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2016

Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2015

Sediment transport-based metrics of wetland stability

Despite the importance of sediment availability on wetland stability, vulnerability assessments seldom consider spatiotemporal variability of sediment transport. Models predict that the maximum rate of sea level rise a marsh can survive is proportional to suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and accretion. In contrast, we find that SSC and accretion are higher in an unstable marsh than in an adjacent stable marsh, suggesting that these metrics cannot describe wetland vulnerability. Therefore, we propose the flood/ebb SSC differential and organic-inorganic suspended sediment ratio as better vulnerability metrics. The unstable marsh favors sediment export (18 mg L −1 higher on ebb tides), while the stable marsh imports sediment (12 mg L −1 higher on flood tides). The organic-inorganic SSC ratio is 84% higher in the unstable marsh, and stable isotopes indicate a source consistent with marsh-derived material. These simple metrics scale with sediment fluxes, integrate spatiotemporal variability, and indicate sediment sources.

Maryland↗

USGS2015

Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh

Recent models of tidal marsh evolution rely largely on the premise that plants are most productive at an optimal flooding regime that occurs when soil elevations are somewhere between mean sea level and mean high tide. Here, we use 4 years of manipulative “marsh organ” flooding experiments to test the generality of this conceptual framework and to examine how the optimal flooding frequency may change between years and locations. In our experiments, above and belowground growth of Schoenoplectus americanus was most rapid when flooded about 40% of the time in a rapidly submerging marsh and when flooded about 25% of the time in a historically stable marsh. Optimum flooding durations were nearly identical in each year of the experiment and did not differ for above and belowground growth. In contrast, above and belowground growth of Spartina patens decreased monotonically with increased flooding in all years and at both sites, indicating no optimal flooding frequency or elevation relative to sea level. Growth patterns in both species suggest a wider tolerance to flooding, and greater biomass for a given flooding duration, in the rapidly deteriorating marsh.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2014

Temperature sensitivity of organic-matter decay in tidal marshes

Approximately half of marine carbon sequestration takes place in coastal wetlands, including tidal marshes, where organic matter contributes to soil elevation and ecosystem persistence in the face of sea-level rise. The long-term viability of marshes and their carbon pools depends, in part, on how the balance between productivity and decay responds to climate change. Here, we report the sensitivity of labile soil organic-matter decay in tidal marshes to seasonal and latitudinal variations in temperature measured over a 3-year period. We find a moderate increase in decay rate at warmer temperatures (3-6% per °C, Q 10 = 1.3-1.5). Despite the profound differences between microbial metabolism in wetlands and uplands, our results indicate a strong conservation of temperature sensitivity. Moreover, simple comparisons with organic-matter production suggest that elevated atmospheric CO 2 and warmer temperatures will accelerate carbon accumulation in marsh soils, and potentially enhance their ability to survive sea-level rise.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2013

Inferring tidal wetland stability from channel sediment fluxes: observations and a conceptual model

Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m 2 /yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m 2 /yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.

Maryl↗

USGS2012

Feedbacks between inundation, root production, and shoot growth in a rapidly submerging brackish marsh

1. Ecogeomorphic feedbacks between mineral sediment deposition and above-ground plant growth are thought to have dominated the evolution of many coastal ecosystems and landforms. However, land-use-related reductions in sediment delivery rates to estuaries world-wide suggest that these above-ground feedbacks may not apply in some of the world's most vulnerable coastal landscapes. 2. To understand the relationships between sea level rise and marsh survival, we measured root and shoot growth over experimentally manipulated elevations in a rapidly submerging, sediment deficient marsh. 3. Root growth was highest at a distinct optimum elevation in both Schoenoplectus americanus and Spartina patens . S. americanus shoot growth was highest at an optimum elevation, but S. patens shoot growth increased with elevation throughout the intertidal zone. 4. For marsh elevations that are higher than optimum (expected at low sea level rise rates), we propose that an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise will lead to enhanced root growth, organic accretion and wetland stability. For suboptimum marsh elevations (expected at rapid sea level rise rates and/or low sediment supply), increases in the water level will lead to reduced root growth and a decrease in the rate of elevation gain. 5. More than 80% of the marshland in our study area has an elevation below the optimum for root growth, suggesting that this previously unknown feedback could explain observations of rapid marsh deterioration in the region. 6. Synthesis . Below-ground responses of marshes to sea level rise are more broadly applicable than above-ground feedbacks because they are consistent among different species and do not depend on the availability of mineral sediment.

Journal of Ecology↗