Geology topics

Matthew B. Rigge

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew B. Rigge.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

An accuracy assessment of satellite-derived rangeland fractional cover

Satellite-derived maps of vegetation cover provide detailed information about vegetation spatiotemporal patterns and are increasingly used to better understand and manage rangelands. Despite their utility, questions remain regarding the regional and site level accuracy for these maps, especially compared to field-collected data. We conducted an accuracy assessment of the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), using over 17,000 field plots sampled through nationwide rangeland vegetation monitoring programs in the continental U.S. We observed higher overall nationwide map error compared to previous validations of RAP, and absolute error (Mean Absolute Error [MAE] and Root Mean Square Error [RMSE]) was highest for perennial herbaceous and bare ground and lowest for trees (MAE range = 2.98 –10.22 %). There were also differences in map agreement with field data across ecoregions. Generally, map agreement was highest in the Great Basin and lowest in the Great Plains and Desert Southwest. Additionally, we assessed the suitability of using RAP in riparian and wetland areas, which are absent in the current version’s training. Errors for bare ground in riparian areas were lower than errors of upland accuracy assessments (upland MAE = 10.22 %, riparian MAE = 7.22 %), but for all other functional groups, riparian error was higher (ΔMAE range: 0.21 – 20.49 %). We examine how our results could inform regional applications of fractional cover data while considering error and uncertainty and identify areas for potential model improvement. Our findings inform the use of RAP regionally and provide a technique for evaluating other vegetation mapping products for use in rangeland management.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2025

Spatial scale dependence of error in fractional component cover maps

Geospatial products such as fractional vegetation cover maps often report overall, pixel-wise accuracy, but decision-making with these products often occurs at coarser scales. As such, data users often desire guidance on the appropriate spatial scale to apply these data. We worked toward establishing this guidance by assessing RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) accuracy relative to a series of high-resolution predictions of component cover. We scale the 2-m and RCMAP predictions to various focal window sizes scales ranging from 30 to 1 500 m using focal averaging. We also evaluated variation in scaling effects on error at ecoregion and pasture (mean area of 1 050 ha) scales. Our results demonstrate increased accuracy at broader windows, across all components, and most increases in accuracy level off at ∼200–600 m scales. At the scale with highest accuracy, cross-component average correlation ( r ) increased by 6.5%, and root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced 46.4% relative to 30-m scale data. Scaling-related improvements to accuracy were greatest in components such as shrub and tree with more spatially heterogeneous cover and in ecoregions with more spatially heterogenous cover. When components were aggregated at the pasture scale, r increased 10% and RMSE decreased 34.3% on average relative to the 30-m scale. Our results provide empirical data on the scale dependence of error, which fractional cover data users may consider alongside their needs when using these data. Although the general principle remains that remotely sensed products are intended to address landscape-scale questions, our analysis indicates that applying data at finer than landscape spatial scales and grouping even a handful of pixels resulted in lowered error compared to pixel-level comparisons. Our results quantify the trade-offs between data granularity and error related to scale for fractional vegetation cover.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Correspondence between satellite-derived and long-term field observations of vegetation cover at Great Basin experimental treatments.

Vegetation treatments are frequently utilized in Western US rangelands to reduce woody plant cover in sagebrush stands threatened by increased wildfire risk and in pinyon-juniper woodlands expanding into formerly high-value sagebrush habitats. Despite widespread use of these treatments, monitoring data to evaluate long-term vegetation responses are often insufficient or absent. Long-term field experiments and remote-sensing based vegetation data may be complementary for assessing treatment effectiveness across temporal and spatial scales. The SageSTEP project experimentally implemented treatments at numerous sites across the Intermountain West and monitored the subsequent response of vegetation cover components with 15+ yr of field observations. However, while pretreatment data were collected in the year of implementation, long-term observations of pretreatment vegetation conditions are lacking in the SageSTEP database. Remote-sensing based time-series maps (1985–2023) of vegetation cover from Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) could fill temporal gaps in monitoring data and scale findings across broader extents. We evaluate the relationship between pretreatment vegetation cover in the RCMAP data and the post-treatment response in both the RCMAP and field observations. Additionally, we explore the correspondence between SageSTEP field observations and RCMAP at various scales, and examine key factors related to the strength of relationships. Overall, SageSTEP and RCMAP data show a similar direction of treatment effect for each component, and to a lesser extent the magnitude of effect. SageSTEP and RCMAP data tended to agree most strongly where treatment effects were strong; when averaged across broader spatial scales; and for components such as tree and bare ground that are more easily distinguished spectrally. Remote sensing tools such as RCMAP, in combination with field-based climate and vegetation observations, can help assess postdisturbance recovery trajectories and facilitate regional decision-making around treatment alternatives, fire risk reduction, and protection of critical habitats.

Great Basin↗

USGS2024

Application of normalized radar backscatter and hyperspectral data to augment rangeland vegetation fractional classification

Rangeland ecosystems in the western United States are vulnerable to climate change, fire, and anthropogenic disturbances, yet classification of rangeland areas remains difficult due to frequently sparse vegetation canopies that increase the influence of soils and senesced vegetation, the overall abundance of senesced vegetation, heterogeneity of life forms, and limited ground-based data. The Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) project provides fractional vegetation cover maps across western North America using Landsat imagery and artificial intelligence from 1985 to 2023 at yearly time-steps. The objectives of this case study are to apply hyperspectral data from several new data streams, including Sentinel Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), to the RCMAP model . We run a series of five tests (Landsat-base model, base + SAR, base + EMIT, base + SAR + EMIT, and base + Landsat NEXT [LNEXT] synthesized from EMIT) over a difficult-to-classify region centered in southwest Montana, USA. Our testing results indicate a clear accuracy benefit of adding SAR and EMIT data to the RCMAP model, with a 7.5% and 29% relative increase in independent accuracy ( R 2 ), respectively. The ability of SAR data to observe vegetation height allows for more accurate classification of vegetation types, whereas EMIT’s continuous characterization of the spectral response boosts discriminatory power relative to multispectral data. Our spectral profile analysis reveals the enhanced classification power with EMIT is related to both the improved spectral resolution and representation of the entire domain as compared to legacy Landsat. One key finding is that legacy Landsat bands largely miss portions of the electromagnetic spectrum where separation among important rangeland targets exists, namely in the 900–1250 nm and 1500–1780 nm range. Synthesized LNEXT data include these gaps, but the reduced spectral resolution compared to EMIT results in an intermediate 18% increase in accuracy relative to the base run. Here, we show the promise of enhanced classification accuracy using EMIT data, and to a smaller extent, SAR.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Biophysical drivers for predicting the distribution and abundance of invasive yellow sweetclover in the Northern Great Plains

Context Yellow sweetclover ( Melilotus officinalis ; YSC) is an invasive biennial legume that bloomed across the Northern Great Plains in 2018–2019 in response to above-average precipitation. YSC can increase nitrogen (N) levels and potentially cause substantial changes in the composition of native plant species communities. There is little knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability and conditions causing substantial widespread blooms of YSC across western South Dakota (SD). Objectives We aimed to develop a generalized prediction model to predict the relative abundance of YSC in suitable habitats across rangelands of western South Dakota for 2019. Our research questions are: (1) What is the spatial extent of YSC across western South Dakota? (2) Which model can accurately predict the habitat and percent cover of YSC? and (3) What significant biophysical drivers affect its presence across western South Dakota? Methods We trained machine learning models with in situ data (2016–2021), Sentinel 2A-derived surface reflectance and indices (10 m, 20 m) and site-specific variables of climate, topography, and edaphic factors to optimize model performance. Results We identified moisture proxies (Shortwave Infrared reflectance and variability in Tasseled Cap Wetness) as the important predictors to explain the YSC presence. Land Surface Water Index and variability in summer temperature were the top predictors in explaining the YSC abundance. We demonstrated how machine learning algorithms could help generate valuable information on the spatial distribution of this invasive plant. We delineated major YSC hotspots in Butte, Pennington, and Corson Counties of South Dakota. The floodplains of major rivers, including White and Bad Rivers, and areas around Badlands National Park also showed a higher occurrence probability and cover percentage. Conclusions These prediction maps could aid land managers in devising management strategies for the regions that are prone to YSC outbreaks. The management workflow can also serve as a prototype for mapping other invasive plant species in similar regions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection, 1985–2021

The Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) project quantifies the percentage cover of rangeland components across the western United States using Landsat imagery from 1985 to 2021. The RCMAP product suite consists of nine fractional components: annual herbaceous, bare ground, herbaceous, litter, nonsagebrush shrub, perennial herbaceous, sagebrush, shrub, and tree, in addition to the temporal trends of each component. Several enhancements were made to the RCMAP process relative to prior generations. First, we have trained time-series predictions directly from 331 high-resolution sites collected from 2013 to 2018 and additional field data; for example, Bureau of Land Management Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring instead of using the 2016 “base” map as an intermediary. This removes one level of model error and allows the direct association of high-resolution derived training data to the corresponding year of Landsat imagery. Neural network models have replaced Cubist models as our classifier. Continuous Change Detection and Classification synthetic Landsat images were obtained for six monthly periods for each region and were added as predictors. These data enhance the phenologic detail of imagery, improving discrimination among components. Postprocessing has been improved with updated fire recovery equations stratified by ecosystem resistance and resilience classes. Additionally, postprocessing has been enhanced through a revised noise detection model, based on third order polynomial models for each component and each pixel. These data can be used to answer critical questions regarding the effect of climate change and the suitability of management practices. Component products can be downloaded from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium website at https://www.mrlc.gov/data .

western United States↗

USGS2022

Trends analysis of Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) fractional component time series (1985–2020)

Rangelands have a dynamic response to climate change, fire, and other anthropogenic disturbances. The Rangeland Condition, Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (RCMAP) product aims to capture this response by quantifying the percent cover of eight rangeland components, associated error, and trends across the western United States using Landsat from 1985 to 2020. The current generation of RCMAP has been improved with more training data, regional-scale Landsat composites, and more robust change detection. We assess the temporal patterns in each component with a linear model and a structural change method that determines break points using an 8-year temporal moving window. The linear and structural change methods generally agreed on patterns of change, but the latter found breaks more often, with at least one break point in most pixels. The structural change model provides more robust statistics on the significant minority of pixels with non-monotonic trends, while detrending some interannual signal potentially superfluous from a long-term perspective. Although break point density within one year of fire and vegetation treatments was ~10× and ~4× that of unburned areas, respectively, break point detection in the correct year of fire was only moderately accurate. Climate responses in break points proved more robust, with strong spatiotemporal relation in break point density with both aridity index values and aridity index change. Break point density strongly responds to both increased and decreased aridity and is reflective of ecosystem resilience. Data provide spatiotemporal information on the occurrence of breaks, but even more importantly, attribute those change events to specific component(s).

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗

USGS2022

Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP)

The Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) project has partnered with the Bureau of Land Management to provide annual maps of rangeland vegetation condition across the Western United States from 1985 to present. Annual mapping can assist land managers and scientists with monitoring changes to vegetation composition, evaluating past management practices, targeting future improvements, determining locations of critical wildlife habitat, and assessing landscape health and fragmentation. Impacts of climate variability and long-term change are often gradual and frequently do not present as a land cover change (for example, shrubland to grassland); however, RCMAP fractional vegetation cover data capture these gradual changes.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2022

Guiding principles for using satellite-derived maps in rangeland management

On the Ground Rangeland management has entered a new era with the accessibility and advancement of satellite-derived maps. Maps provide a comprehensive view of rangelands in space and time, and challenge us to think critically about natural variability. Here, we advance the practice of using satellite-derived maps with four guiding principles designed to increase end user confidence and thereby accessibility of these data for decision-making.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Projected change in rangeland fractional component cover across the sagebrush biome under climate change through 2085

Climate change over the past century has altered vegetation community composition and species distributions across rangelands in the western United States. The scale and magnitude of climatic influences are unknown. While many studies have projected the effects of climate change using several modeling approaches, none has evaluated the impacts to fractional component cover at a 30-m resolution across the full sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. We used fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups and weather data from the 1985 to 2018 reference period in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop empirical models describing the spatiotemporal variation in component cover. To investigate the ramifications of future change across the western United States, we extended models based on historical relationships over the reference period to model landscape effects based on future weather conditions from two emission scenarios and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). We tested both generalized additive models (GAMs) and regression tree models, finding that the former led to superior spatial and statistical results. Our results indicate more xeric vegetation across most of the study area, with an increasing dominance of non-sagebrush shrubs, annual herbaceous cover, and bare ground over herbaceous and sagebrush cover in both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In general, both scenarios yielded similar results, but RCP 8.5 tended to be more extreme, with greater change relative to the reference period. Results demonstrate that in cool sites some degree of warming to growing season maximum temperature or nongrowing season minimum temperature could be beneficial to sagebrush and shrub growth. However, warming nongrowing season maximum temperature was beneficial to shrub, but not to sagebrush growth. Our results inform rangeland managers of potential future vegetation composition, cover, and species distributions, which could improve prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2021

Rapid monitoring of the abundance and spread of exotic annual grasses in the western United States using remote sensing and machine learning

Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio-environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine-learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R 2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30-m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low-to-mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long-term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage-grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗

USGS2021

Rangeland fractional components across the western United States from 1985 to 2018

Monitoring temporal dynamics of rangelands to detect and understand change in vegetation cover and composition provides a wealth of information to improve management and sustainability. Remote sensing allows the evaluation of both abrupt and gradual rangeland change at unprecedented spatial and temporal extents. Here, we describe the production of the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Back in Time (BIT) dataset which quantified the percent cover of rangeland components (bare ground, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. Nutt.) across the western United States using Landsat imagery from 1985 to 2018. We evaluate the relationships of component trends with climate drivers at an ecoregion scale, describe the nature of landscape change, and demonstrate several case studies related to changes in grazing management, prescribed burns, and vegetation treatments. Our results showed the net cover of shrub, sagebrush, and litter significantly ( p < 0.01) decreased, bare ground and herbaceous cover had no significant change, and annual herbaceous cover significantly ( p < 0.05) increased. Change was ubiquitous, with a mean of 92% of pixels with some change and 38% of pixels with significant change ( p < 0.10). However, most change was gradual, well over half of pixels have a range of less than 10%, and most change occurred outside of known disturbances. The BIT data facilitate a comprehensive assessment of rangeland condition, evaluation of past management actions, understanding of system variability, and opportunities for future planning.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗

USGS2021

Ecological potential fractional component cover based on Long-Term satellite observations across the western United States

Rangelands have immense inherent spatial and temporal variability, yet land condition and trends are often assessed at a limited number of spatially “representative” points. Spatially comprehensive, and quantitative, Ecological Potential (EP) data provide a baseline for comparison to current rangeland vegetation conditions and trends. Here, we define EP as potential fractional cover (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush) represented in the least disturbed areas and most productive years of the Landsat satellite archive (1985-present) for each 30-m pixel. We produce EP maps across rangelands in the western United States by training regression tree models using Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) time-series fractional cover maps in ecologically intact sites (with limited annual herbaceous cover, no recent disturbance or vegetation treatment, and less bare ground cover than expected). As independent predictor variables in these models, we use digital soils and topography data and six bimonthly composites of the 90th percentile of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and associated spectral bands from the 1985–2020 Landsat archive. EP predictions were successful in capturing biophysical gradients present in the independent variables and depicting potential cover in the absence of disturbance; we found no influence of fires or land treatments in the data. Next, we compared EP to contemporary (2018) cover, to create departure maps that can be used as a screening tool indicating degradation and providing an early warning of vegetation state change. Finally, we used a dichotomous key to convert the 1985 and 2018 RCMAP cover and EP cover into vegetation states important to land management decisions (invaded sagebrush steppe , annual grasslands, etc.). We found that in 1985, 21.2% of the study area had a different vegetation state than EP, and this percentage increased to 24.2% by 2018. More than 50% of the EP native sagebrush steppe was converted to an annual grassland, perennial grassland, or non-sagebrush shrub by 2018, and an additional 7% was classified as invaded sagebrush steppe, at risk of transition to another state. EP products provide a spatio-temporal reference of vegetation conditions from the last three decades across rangelands in the western United States. Use of the EP reference can improve adaptive management practice by providing monitoring and control data, which are often lacking, and assist in differentiating treatment effect from confounding factors.

western United States↗

USGS2020

Analyzing vegetation change in a sagebrush ecosystem using long-term field observations and Landsat imagery in Wyoming

The importance of monitoring shrublands to detect and understand changes through time is increasingly recognized as critical to management. This research focuses on ecological change observed over 10 yr of field observation at 126 plots and over 35 yr of the Landsat archive in a shrubland ecosystem. Field data consisting of the fractional cover of shrubs, sagebrush, herbs, litter, and bare ground components were collected to be directly comparable to Landsat time-series predictions at an ecoregion level. We used these data to test three hypotheses. First, that precipitation and temperature govern changes in the proportions of shrubland components on an interannual time scale. Second, that longer-term component change is related to climate change. Finally, that change intensity varies by shrubland communities clustered by biophysical conditions. We found that the field observations and Landsat times-series predictions generally responded similarly to interannual variation in weather, chiefly driven by precipitation. Landsat times-series data provided a reasonable means of scaling up the findings of the field observations to a larger temporal and spatial window. The results of the analysis indicate that shrubland component change intensity significantly varies by biophysical clusters, and indicate a significant increase in the cover of shrubs and sagebrush in long-term monitoring plots between 2008 and 2017 and in the Landsat time-series data across the Wyoming Basin study area from 1985 to 2017 and from 2008 to 2017. Our results indicate that the Landsat time series can be used to answer critical questions regarding the influence of climate change and the suitability of management practices in shrubland ecosystems.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands

Sagebrush-dominant ecosystems in the western United States are highly vulnerable to climatic variability. To understand how these ecosystems will respond under potential future conditions, we correlated changes in National Land Cover Dataset “Back-in-Time” fractional cover maps from 1985-2018 with Daymet climate data in three federally managed preserves in the sagebrush steppe ecosystem: Beaty Butte Herd Management Area, Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. Future (2018 to 2050) abundance and distribution of vegetation cover were modeled at a 300-m resolution under a business-as-usual climate (BAU) scenario and a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Spatially explicit map projections suggest that climate influences may make the landscape more homogeneous in the near future. Specifically, projections indicate that pixels with high bare ground cover become less bare ground dominant, pixels with moderate herbaceous cover contain less herbaceous cover, and pixels with low shrub cover contain more shrub cover. General vegetation patterns and composition do not differ dramatically between scenarios despite RCP 8.5 projections of + 1.2 °C mean annual minimum temperatures and +7.6 mm total annual precipitation. Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge is forecast to undergo the most change, with both models projecting larger declines in bare ground and larger increases in average herbaceous and shrub cover compared to Beaty Butte Herd Management Area and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. These scenarios present plausible future outcomes intended to guide federal land managers to identify vegetation cover changes that may affect habitat condition and availability for species of interest.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2020

Departures of rangeland fractional component cover and land cover from landsat-based ecological potential in Wyoming USA

Monitoring rangelands by identifying the departure of contemporary conditions from long-term ecological potential allows for the disentanglement of natural biophysical gradients driving change from changes associated with land uses and other disturbance types. We developed maps of ecological potential (EP) for shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), perennial herbaceous, litter, and bare ground fractional cover in Wyoming, USA. EP maps correspond to the potential natural vegetation cover expected by environmental conditions in the absence of anthropogenic and natural disturbance as represented by the greenest and least disturbed period of the Landsat archive. EP was predicted using regression tree models with inputs of soil maps and spectral data associated with the 75th percentile of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Landsat archive. We trained our EP models with 2015 component cover maps on ecologically intact sites with relatively lower bare ground than expected. We generated departure of vegetation cover by comparing the EP and 2015 fractional cover. The departures represent land cover change from potential land cover and/or within-state changes in 2015. Next, we converted EP and 2015 fractional cover maps into thematic land cover and evaluated departure to determine if it was great enough to result in land cover change. The 2015 conditions showed reduced shrub, sagebrush, litter, and perennial herbaceous cover and increased bare ground relative to EP. Known disturbances, such as energy development, fires, and vegetation treatments, are clearly visible on the departure maps, but not on EP component maps. The most frequent departure from EP land cover was shrubland conversion to grassland. Land cover departures can be explained only in small part by known disturbance, and instead are ostensibly related to climate and land management practices. These drivers result in land cover departures that broadened the ecotone between shrubland and grassland relative to EP.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Validating a landsat time-series of fractional component cover across western U.S. Rangelands

Western U.S. rangelands have been quantified as six fractional cover (0%–100%) components over the Landsat archive (1985–2018) at a 30 m resolution, termed the “Back-in-Time” (BIT) dataset. Robust validation through space and time is needed to quantify product accuracy. Here, we used field data collected concurrently with high-resolution satellite (HRS) images over multiple locations (n = 42) and years. Field observations were used to train regression tree models, predicting the component cover across each HRS image. Our objectives were to evaluate the spatial and temporal relationships between HRS and BIT component cover and compare spatio-temporal climate responses. First, for each HRS site-year (n = 77) we averaged both the HRS and BIT predictions within each site separately and regressed the averages to quantify the temporal accuracy. Next, we regressed individual pixel values of corresponding HRS and BIT predictions to quantify the spatio-temporal accuracy. Results showed strong temporal correlations with an average R2 of 0.63 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.47% as well as strong spatio-temporal correlations with an average R2 of 0.52 and RMSE of 7.89% across components. Our approach increased the validation sample size relative to direct comparison of field observations. Validation results showed robust spatio-temporal relationships between HRS and BIT data, providing increased user confidence in the data.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2019

Long-term trajectories of fractional component change in the Northern Great Basin, USA

The need to monitor change in sagebrush steppe is urgent due to the increasing impacts of climate change, shifting fire regimes, and management practices on ecosystem health. Remote sensing provides a cost effective and reliable method for monitoring change through time and attributing changes to drivers. We report an automated method of mapping rangeland fractional component cover over a large portion of the northern Great Basin from 1986 to 2016 using a dense Landsat imagery time-series. Our method improved upon the traditional change vector method by considering the legacy of change at each pixel. We evaluate cover trends stratified by climate bin and assess spatial and temporal relationships with climate variables. Finally, we statistically evaluate the minimum time density needed to accurately characterize temporal patterns and relationships with climate drivers. Over the 30-year period shrub cover declined and bare ground increased. While few pixels had > 10% cover change, a large majority had at least some change. All fractional components had significant spatial relationships with water year precipitation (WYPRCP), maximum temperature (WYTMAX), and minimum temperature (WYTMIN) in all years. Shrub and sagebrush cover in particular respond positively to warming WYTMIN, resulting from the largest increases in WYTMIN being in the coolest and wettest areas, and negatively to warming WYTMAX since the largest increases in WYTMAX are in the warmest and driest areas. The trade-off of lowering temporal density against removing cloud-contaminated years is justified as temporal density appears to have only a modest impact on trends and climate relationships until n ≤ 6, but multi-year gaps are proportionally more influential. Gradual change analysis is likely to be less sensitive to n than abrupt change. These data can be used to answer critical questions regarding the influence of climate change and the suitability of management practices.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗