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Mark T. Stacey

Publications and source records attributed to Mark T. Stacey.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large‐scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

Long‐term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large‐scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record‐high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two‐thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

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USGS2002

Structure and flow-induced variability of the subtidal salinity field in northern San Francisco Bay

The structure of the salinity field in northern San Francisco Bay and how it is affected by freshwater flow are discussed. Two datasets are examined: the first is 23 years of daily salinity data taken by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation along the axis of northern San Francisco Bay; the second is a set of salinity transects taken by the U.S. Geological Survey between 1988 and 1993. Central to this paper is a measure of salinity intrusion, X 2 : the distance from the Golden Gate Bridge to where the bottom salinity is 2 psu. Using X 2 to scale distance, the authors find that for most flow conditions, the mean salinity distribution of the estuary is nearly self-similar with a salinity gradient in the center 70% of the region between the Golden Gate and X 2 that is proportional to X −1 2 . Analysis of covariability of Q and X 2 showed a characteristic timescale of adjustment of the salinity field of approximately 2 weeks. The steady-state response deduced from the X 2 time series implies that X 2 is proportional to riverflow to the 1/7 power. This relation, which differs from the standard 1/3 power dependence that is derived theoretically assuming constant exchange coefficients, shows that the upstream salt flux associated with gravitational circulation is more sensitive to the longitudinal salinity gradient than theory supposes. This is attributed to the strengthening of stratification caused by the stronger longitudinal salinity gradient that accompanies larger river flows.

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USGS2000

Recent research on the hydrodynamics of the Sacramento - San Joaquin River Delta and north San Francisco Bay

This article presents an overview of recent findings from hydrodynamic research on circulation and mixing in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) (Figure 1) and North San Francisco Bay (North Bay) (Figure 2). For the purposes of this article, North Bay includes San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay. The findings presented are those gained from field studies carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the Interagency Ecological Program (IEP), and Stanford University beginning about 1993. The premise behind these studies was that a basic understanding of circulation and mixing patterns in the Bay and Delta is an essential part of understanding how biota and water quality are affected by natural hydrologic variability, water appropriation, and development activities. Data collected for the field studies described in this article have significantly improved our understanding of Bay and Delta hydrodynamics. Measured flows ,in the Delta have provided valuable information on how water moves through the Delta's network of channels and how export pumping affects flows. Studies of the shallows and shallow-channel exchange processes conducted in Honker Bay have shown that the water residence time in Honker Bay is much shorter than previously reported (on the order of hours to several tidal cycles instead ofweeks). Suisun Bay studies have provided data on hydrodynamic transport and accumulation mechanisms that operate primarily in the channels. The Suisun Bay studies have caused us to revise our understanding of residual circulation in the channels of North Bay and of "entrapment" mechanisms in the low salinity zone. Finally, detailed tidal and residual (tidally averaged) time-scale studies of the mechanisms that control gravitational circulation in the estuary show that density-driven transport in the channels is governed by turbulence time-scale (seconds) interactions between the mean flow and stratification. The hydrodynamic research summarized in this article spans a range of estuarine environments (deep water channels to shallow water habitats and brackish water to freshwater) at time scales that range from seconds to years.

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