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Mark S. Udevitz

Publications and source records attributed to Mark S. Udevitz.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2009

An improved procedure for detection and enumeration of walrus signatures in airborne thermal imagery

In recent years, application of remote sensing to marine mammal surveys has been a promising area of investigation for wildlife managers and researchers. In April 2006, the United States and Russia conducted an aerial survey of Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) using thermal infrared sensors to detect groups of animals resting on pack ice in the Bering Sea. The goal of this survey was to estimate the size of the Pacific walrus population. An initial analysis of the U.S. data using previously-established methods resulted in lower detectability of walrus groups in the imagery and higher variability in calibration models than was expected based on pilot studies. This paper describes an improved procedure for detection and enumeration of walrus groups in airborne thermal imagery. Thermal images were first subdivided into smaller 200 x 200 pixel "tiles." We calculated three statistics to represent characteristics of walrus signatures from the temperature histogram for each the. Tiles that exhibited one or more of these characteristics were examined further to determine if walrus signatures were present. We used cluster analysis on tiles that contained walrus signatures to determine which pixels belonged to each group. We then calculated a thermal index value for each walrus group in the imagery and used generalized linear models to estimate detection functions (the probability of a group having a positive index value) and calibration functions (the size of a group as a function of its index value) based on counts from matched digital aerial photographs. The new method described here improved our ability to detect walrus groups at both 2 m and 4 m spatial resolution. In addition, the resulting calibration models have lower variance than the original method. We anticipate that the use of this new procedure will greatly improve the quality of the population estimate derived from these data. This procedure may also have broader applicability to thermal infrared surveys of other wildlife species. Published by Elsevier B.V.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2007

Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

Marine Mammal Science↗
USGS2006

Abundance: Population size and density estimation

Estimates of population size (total number of individuals) or density (number of individuals per unit area) are some of the most basic requirements for wildlife research and management. This article provides a brief overview of approaches for wildlife population estimation. These include habitat-based approaches such as quadrat, line intercept, distance, and repeated count methods, as well as animal-based approaches such as capture–recapture and harvest methods. In contrast to methods that only index changes in these parameters, estimates of size or density must account for the probability that an individual will be included in the sample used for estimation. The essential differences in the approaches are in how the samples are obtained and how the sampling probabilities are estimated.

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Detection of sea otters in boat-based surveys of Prince William Sound, Alaska

Boat-based surveys have been commonly used to monitor sea otter populations, but there has been little quantitative work to evaluate detection biases that may affect these surveys. We used ground-based observers to investigate sea otter detection probabilities in a boat-based survey of Prince William Sound, Alaska. We estimated that 30% of the otters present on surveyed transects were not detected by boat crews. Approximately half (53%) of the undetected otters were missed because the otters left the transects, apparently in response to the approaching boat. Unbiased estimates of detection probabilities will be required for obtaining unbiased population estimates from boat-based surveys of sea otters. Therefore, boat-based surveys should include methods to estimate sea otter detection probabilities under the conditions specific to each survey. Unbiased estimation of detection probabilities with ground-based observers requires either that the ground crews detect all of the otters in observed subunits, or that there are no errors in determining which crews saw each detected otter. Ground-based observer methods may be appropriate in areas where nearly all of the sea otter habitat is potentially visible from ground-based vantage points.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Comparison of methods used to estimate numbers of walruses on sea ice

The US and former USSR conducted joint surveys of Pacific walruses on sea ice and at land haul-outs in 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. One of the difficulties in interpreting results of these surveys has been that, except for the 1990 survey, the Americans and Soviets used different methods for estimating population size from their respective portions of the sea ice data. We used data exchanged between Soviet and American scientists to compare and evaluate the two estimation procedures and to derive a set of alternative estimates from the 1975, 1980, and 1985 surveys based on a single consistent procedure. Estimation method had only a small effect on total population estimates because most walruses were found at land haul-outs. However, the Soviet method is subject to bias that depends on the distribution of the population on the sea ice and this has important implications for interpreting the ice portions of previously reported surveys for walruses and other pinniped species. We recommend that the American method be used in future surveys. Future research on survey methods for walruses should focus on other potential sources of bias and variation.

Chukchi Sea↗
USGS2006

Evaluation of aerial survey methods for Dall's sheep

Most Dall's sheep ( Ovis dalli dalli ) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabilities for fixed-wing surveys. Groups containing radiocollared sheep often changed in size and composition before they could be observed by a second crew in units that were double-surveyed. Double-observer methods that require determination of which groups were detected by each observer will be infeasible unless survey procedures can be modified so that groups remain more stable between observations. Mean group sizes increased during our study period, and our logistic regression sightability model indicated that detection probabilities increased with group size. Mark–resight estimates of annual population sizes were similar to sightability-model estimates, and confidence intervals overlapped broadly. We recommend the sightability-model approach as the most effective and feasible of the alternatives we considered for monitoring Dall's sheep populations.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Nesting habitat of the Tule Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons elgasi

This paper presents the first information on the availability and use of nesting habitat by the rare Tule Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons elgasi. The breeding range was sampled by marking geese with radio transmitters on wintering and moulting areas, and tracking them to nest sites in Alaska. Nesting habitat was described at the scales of ecoregion, wetland ecosystem (National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) maps), vegetation type within wetland (Alaska Vegetation Classification (AVC) maps based on satellite imagery), and nest site. Tule Greater White-fronted Goose nests were located in boreal forest wetlands in the upper Cook Inlet Basin ecoregion. Nesting Tule Greater White-fronted Geese selected NWT Palustrine Seasonally Flooded wetlands and used NWI Palustrine Saturated wetlands in proportion to availability. Within these wetlands, Tule Greater White-fronted Geese used Needleleaf Forest, Low Shrub and Herbaceous (mostly graminoid) AVC classes for nest sites in proportion to availability Most (93%) Tule Greater White-fronted Geese nested > 75 m from open water ponds or lakes, and many nested in wetlands with little or no open water. Tule Greater White-fronted Geese nest only in a small breeding area near the most human-impacted area of the state, and continued development may limit the use of suitable nesting habitat.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Development of airborne remote sensing methods for surveys of Pacific walrus

In April 2003, we conducted an operational test of an airborne multispectral scanner (AMS) over pack ice in the Bering Sea to evaluate the potential of this system as a survey tool for Pacific walruses. We scanned a total of 28,875 km2 of sea ice habitat at a spatial resolution of 4 m and collected high resolution photographs from a subset of the thermally detected walrus groups. We found a significant positive relationship between walrus group size and the amount of heat measured by the AMS and used this relationship to estimate total walrus numbers in the survey area. The number of walruses hauled out onto sea ice in our study area was estimated at 4,785 animals with a 95% confidence interval of 2,499–7,111. We believe that the AMS system as configured for this study would be a highly effective tool for surveying large areas of sea ice habitat for walrus groups. With a 6 km swath width, it should be possible to sample more 10,000 km2 in an 8-hr flight. Although walrus groups > 4 animals were easily detected and enumerated in the 4 m thermal data, the system was unable to detect individual walruses or seals ( Phoca spp . and Erignathus barbatus ). We found that most (94.6%) of the walruses photographed in our survey area occurred in groups > 6 animals, therefore we expect the magnitude of any bias due to undetected groups of hauled out animals would be relatively small.

Alaska↗
USGS2005

Observer variability in pinniped counts: Ground-based enumeration of walruses at haul-out sites

Pinnipeds are often monitored by counting individuals at haul-out sites, but the often large numbers of densely packed individuals at these sites are difficult to enumerate accurately. Errors in enumeration can induce bias and reduce precision in estimates of population size and trend. We used data from paired observers monitoring walrus haul-outs in Bristol Bay, Alaska, to quantify observer variability and assess its relative importance. The probability of a pair of observers making identical counts was 50 individuals. Mean count differences ranged up to 25% for the largest counts, depending on beach and observers. In at least some cases, there was a clear tendency for counts of one observer to be consistently greater than counts of the other observer in a pair, indicating that counts of at least one of the observers were biased. These results suggest that efforts to improve accuracy of counts will be worthwhile. However, we also found that variation among observers was relatively small compared to variation among visits to a beach so that efforts to account for other sources of variation will be more important.

Marine Mammal Science↗
USGS2003

Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

Dall’s sheep in northwestern Alaska declined in the early 1990s following the severe 1989-90 and 1990-91 winters. In the Baird Mountains of Noatak National Preserve, estimates of adult sheep declined by 50% from 800 in 1989 to under 400 in 1991. Population counts remained low throughout 1991 to 1996, reaching a minimum of 244 adult sheep in 1996. Few lambs were observed during annual midsummer aerial surveys in 1991 to 1994. We suspect that these declines resulted from a combination of poorer nutritional condition and increased vulnerability of sheep to predation resulting from severe winter conditions. As a result of these declines, both subsistence and sport hunting seasons were closed by emergency order in 1991, resulting in substantial management controversy. The affected publics, although willing to accept the closures, questioned the validity of the sheep survey data and strongly emphasized their interest in restoring harvests as soon as populations increased sufficiently. In 1995 the Northwest Arctic Regional Advisory Council, the local advisory committee for the Federal Subsistence Board, passed a motion supporting efforts to initiate research on sheep populations in the region to better understand the factors limiting sheep populations and to evaluate sheep survey methodologies. Currently estimates of Dall’s sheep population size and composition in the western Brooks Range are based on intensive fixed-wing aerial surveys conducted annually since 1986 in areas including the Baird Mountains. The annual variation in recent Baird Mountains aerial counts cannot be explained with reasonable assumptions about reproduction and survival, suggesting that there is some variability in the proportion of the population observed each year or that a substantial number of sheep move during the survey. Prior to our research, no attempt had been made to estimate visibility bias or precision for these surveys. Our understanding of Dall’s sheep population biology comes largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Forage quantity and quality

The Porcupine caribou herd has traditionally used the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, for calving. Availability of nutritious forage has been hypothesized as one of the reasons the Porcupine caribou herd migrates hundreds of kilometers to reach the coastal plain for calving (Kuropat and Bryant 1980, Russell et al. 1993). Forage quantity and quality and the chronology of snowmelt (which determines availability and phenological stages of forage) have been suggested as important habitat attributes that lead calving caribou to select one area over another (Lent 1980, White and Trudell 1980, Eastland et al. 1989). A major question when considering the impact of petroleum development is whether potential displacement of the caribou from the 1002 Area to alternate calving habitat will limit access to high quantity and quality forage. Our study had the following objectives: 1) quantify snowmelt patterns by area; 2) quantify relationships among phenology, biomass, and nutrient content of principal forage species by vegetation type; and 3) determine if traditional concentrated calving areas differ from adjacent areas with lower calving densities in terms of vegetation characteristics.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗
USGS2002

Predators

Calving caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) of the Central Arctic herd, Alaska, have avoided the infrastructure associated with the complex of petroleum development areas from Prudhoe Bay to Kuparuk (Cameron et al. 1992, Nellemann and Cameron 1998, and Section 4 of this document). Calving females of the Porcupine caribou herd may similarly avoid any oil field roads and pipelines developed in areas traditionally used during the calving and post-calving periods. This may displace the caribou females and calves to areas east and south of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Increased calf mortality could occur if calving caribou are displaced into areas that have a higher density of predators, higher rates of predation, or where a higher proportion of the predators regularly use caribou as a food source (Whitten et al. 1992). Our study assessed predation risks to caribou calving in the 1002 Area versus calving in potential displacement areas. Due to funding constraints, our research focused on grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ), with wolves (Camus lupus) and golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) receiving only cursory attention. Our research objectives were 1) to compare relative abundance of predators within the 1002 Area with that in adjacent peripheral areas, 2) to determine factors affecting predator abundance on the calving grounds, and 3) to quantify the use of caribou as a food source for predators and the importance of caribou to the productivity of predator populations using the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗
USGS1999

An aerial survey method to estimate sea otter abundance

Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) occur in shallow coastal habitats and can be highly visible on the sea surface. They generally rest in groups and their detection depends on factors that include sea conditions, viewing platform, observer technique and skill, distance, habitat and group size. While visible on the surface, they are difficult to see while diving and may dive in response to an approaching survey platform. We developed and tested an aerial survey method that uses intensive searches within portions of strip transects to adjust for availability and sightability biases. Correction factors are estimated independently for each survey and observer. In tests of our method using shore-based observers, we estimated detection probabilities of 0.52-0.72 in standard strip-transects and 0.96 in intensive searches. We used the survey method in Prince William Sound, Alaska to estimate a sea otter population size of 9,092 (SE = 1422). The new method represents an improvement over various aspects of previous methods, but additional development and testing will be required prior to its broad application.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1998

Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1997

Adaptation of a stage-projection model for species with multiple year reproductive cycles

We apply stage projection matrices to multiple age and reproductive categories, deriving the stable age - reproductive category distribution for populations with multi-year reproductive cycles and identifying conditions for the existence of a dominant latent root. Given the stable distribution of age and reproductive category and the number of female young for each reproductive category, the age specific fecundity rates can be calculated. For species with multi-year reproductive cycles, the fecundity rate associated with the stable age distribution is often not a smooth function of age, but fluctuates as a larger or smaller fraction of females becomes available to breed. We suggest that fecundity rates for species with multi-year reproductive cycles be defined in terms of litter size and probabilities of conception and successful gestation rather than average fecundity.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS1995

Kodiak brown bears

Brown bears ( Ursus arctos middendorffi ) on the Kodiak Archipelago are famous for their large size and seasonal concentrations at salmon streams. Sport hunting of Kodiak bears has been popular since World War II. Their value as captivating subjects to observe or photograph is a more recent development that is increasing rapidly; visitors from around the world come to experience brown bears on Kodiak, adding substantially to Alaska's economy. An equally important contribution of brown bears is their value as an indicator of ecosystem vitality. Despite high population numbers, Kodiak bears are vulnerable to the environmental effects that have seriously depleted brown bear populations in Europe and parts of North America (Cowan 1972; Servheen 1990). They are long-lived mammals that require large expanses of land to meet biological needs, and their low reproductive rate limits population recovery. Energy development, depletion of salmon resources, and recreational growth are factors that can adversely affect bears and, in doing so, signal a loss of environmental quality affecting many species. Management of Kodiak brown bears is directed at maintaining current density, distribution, and habitat-use patterns. This goal is challenged by growing levels of commercial and private use throughout the region. An immediate concern is cabin and lodge development on 121,500 ha (300,000 acres), formerly part of the Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge, that were deeded to Alaska Natives via the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. Much of that Native-conveyed land is coastal or riparian habitat especially important to brown bears during summer and fall. Concurrently, recreational use of the Kodiak refuge is increasing about 10% annually (USFWS 1987). Sport fishing, bear photography, and deer and elk hunting often put bears and humans in direct conflict (Smith et al. 1989). Timber harvest on Afognak Island, uncertain trends of salmon populations due to natural or human-caused events (e.g., Exxon Valdez oil spill), and hydroelectric development (Smith and Van Daele 1990) could impose additional long-term effects on localized bear populations.

Alaska↗
USGS1994

An intersection model for estimating sea otter mortality along the Kenai Peninsula

We developed an intersection model to integrate parameters estimated from three distinct data sets that resulted from the Exxon Valdez oil spill: (1) the distribution, amount, and movements of spilled oil; (2) the distribution and abundance of sea otters along the Kenai Peninsula; and (3) the estimates of site-specific sea otter mortality relative to oil exposure from otters captured for rehabilitation and from collected carcasses. In this chapter, we describe the data sets and provide examples of how they can be used in the model to generate acute loss estimates. We also examine the assumptions required for the model and provide suggestions for improving and applying the model.

Alaska↗