Geology topics

Mark Richard Dufour

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Richard Dufour.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Bayesian hierarchical model of lake whitefish cohort strength from sparse trawl data

Recruitment indices for rare or intermittently recruiting fishes are needed to compare year classes and evaluate recruitment drivers, but sparse trawl data with many zero-catch observations complicate estimation. We used fall bottom trawl data from New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio surveys in Lake Erie's central and eastern basins to estimate annual relative cohort strength of age-0 lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) from 1992 to 2021 and evaluate whether a Bernoulli-Bernoulli presence-absence model retained enough information for an annual relative cohort strength index compared with a Binomial-Poisson count model. We fixed detection probability at 0.31 in the primary analysis and refit both models using alternative fixed values in sensitivity analyses. Among 2879 tows, 173 were positive and 368 fish were collected, with positive catches ranging from 1 to 20 fish. Annual catch per unit area and both models recovered a similar recruitment pattern, with variable recruitment from 1992 to 2005, little to no recruitment from 2006 to 2014, and renewed recruitment in most years from 2015 to 2021. Cohort rank order was stable across fixed detection values (Spearman r s = 0.996 to 1.000), and annual median estimates maintained high agreement with the primary analysis (Pearson r = 0.966 to 1.000). However, Bernoulli-Bernoulli estimates were not one-to-one with Binomial-Poisson estimates, and relative magnitude depended on assumed detection probability. These results indicate that the Bernoulli-Bernoulli simplification is adequate for recovering cohort strength patterns, but the Binomial-Poisson model is more appropriate for distinguishing relative cohort strength among years.

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2026

A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for species diversity in ecology

Species diversity is the foundation of many ecological disciplines. This metric is often approximated using species richness and evenness, even though actual richness likely exceeds observations due to imperfect sampling methods. Estimating the “true” species richness, which includes identifying the number of missing species, has intrigued ecologists for decades. We adopted a parametric model that appeared in Fisher et al. (1943), which models the numbers of individuals from different species as random samples from a negative binomial distribution, and developed a Bayesian computational approach to directly estimate the distribution model parameters. The model parameters represent species abundance and evenness, and can be used to derive species richness. We evaluated our parametric approach using (1) a simulation study and (2) three historical data sets. Furthermore, we illustrated the hierarchical modeling approach to combine data from multiple parallel studies using a biannual fishery survey data set. Our parametric model formulation is computationally efficient, and the hierarchical structure facilitates embedding diversity estimation into broader application, such as assessing spatial and temporal trends in species diversity associated with environmental stressors. Additionally, because the two parameters of the negative binomial distribution model represent species abundance and evenness of a community, this parametric approach facilitates a deeper understanding of the ecological systems under study. The negative binomial distribution model works with a wide range of species frequency distribution types. As a result, our emphasis on a parametric model can help us characterize the structure of an ecosystem and provide a greater depth of ecologically meaningful information.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2026

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2025

Lake Erie has the most populated watershed of all the Great Lakes and has undergone dramatic anthropogenic changes. Since the 1800s, overexploitation of fish populations, habitat destruction, non-native species proliferation, industrial contamination, and changes in nutrient loading have impacted the fish community including declines in or extirpation of many native species (Regier et al. 1969, Hartman 1973; Leach & Nepszy 1976; Ludsin et al. 2001). Implementation of the Clean Water Act and Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement in the 1970s improved habitat conditions (Reutter 2019), which contributed to several strong percid year-classes (Vandergoot et al. 2019). These strong year-classes also benefited from more restrictive management practices that reduced harvest, ultimately rehabilitating Lake Erie percid stocks (Kayle et al. 2015, STC 2020). Historically, Lake Erie supported a cool water fish community dominated by percids and salmonids. Recently updated FCOs set forth a vision that “Lake Erie will consist of diverse fish communities that support ongoing societal benefits, including thriving commercial and recreational fisheries, improved fish habitat and desirable ecosystem performance, and reduced adverse impacts from invasive fish” (Francis et al. 2020). Today, mixed fisheries resulting from seasonally changing cool and warm water habitats have developed in Lake Erie, and the new FCOs reflect a desire to manage both predator and prey fish communities within them. Although Lake Erie management agencies have traditionally focused on numerical indices of a few economically important species, aquatic ecosystem models are typically evaluated in terms of entire fish community biomass. As a result, our understanding of fish community structure and ecosystem dynamics from biomass-based models has been limited to short-term investigations and proxy measurements (e.g., length-weight conversion; FTG 2020). Therefore, many Lake Erie fish community databases are now incorporating biomass-based measurements. In response, USGS revised the Lake Erie trawl program to provide biomass-based measurements for all encountered species (Table 1). The survey design change occurred in 2012, coincident with commissioning of a new research vessel and a change in bottom trawl gear. These modifications already altered the existing time series; therefore, the survey design was also expanded to include greater spatial coverage and increased sample size generating a new time series. The purpose of this report is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the long-term changes and fish community dynamics including population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies, such as native percids and their prey. Here, we summarize survey results for the most recent series of West Basin trawl data from 2013 through 2025. Note that a detailed description of the sampling process along with traditional numericallybased catch data (e.g., fish/ha) for individual species can be downloaded online (DuFour et al. 2026) or obtained for earlier years (https://doi.org/10.5066/F75M63X0; U.S. Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center 2019).

western Lake Erie↗

USGS2026

Tag retention, growth, condition, and survival of externally marked Yellow Perch

Objective: Determining the movement and survival of Yellow Perch Perca flavescens that inhabit Lake Erie is a priority management concern, yet contemporary understanding of their cross-jurisdictional movements and exploitation is lacking. To support future movement and survival studies, we evaluated the retention rates, condition, growth, and survival associated with four external tagging methods. Methods: One-hundred hatchery- reared Yellow Perch (188–257 mm) were tagged and held in recirculating aquaculture systems over a 168- d period. We tested four external tag types, including loop tags, ring tags, streamer tags, and T- bar anchor tags, and quantified tag retention rates, as well as tagging effects on condition, growth, and survival. Results: T- bar anchor and loop tags had 100% retention, whereas ring (54%) and streamer (0%) retention was poor. The condition and growth of fish were not affected by any of the tagging methods; however, the loop tags caused abrasive wounds near the tagging site that could lead to secondary infection and latent effects on survival. We found no evidence that tagging resulted in mortality. Conclusion: External T- bar tags were the most efficient to apply and provided a marking option that was highly visible, had high retention, and had no effects on condition, growth, or survival in Yellow Perch over the 168- d study period.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2026

Bird predation obscures detection of acoustic telemetry tags in fish

Increasing application of acoustic telemetry for determining survival, migration and habitat use of fishes highlights the need to improve interpretation of tracks that end abruptly: when is fishing mortality, predation, or some other cause to be inferred? Significant technological advances have led to the development of tags that “sense” predation and can be used to infer information about the type of predator that consumed the tagged fish. However, growing evidence suggests that bird predation is not effectively quantified by the technology. We hypothesized that reduction in sound transmission from acoustic tags in the gut of a bird combined with short bird diving intervals would eliminate detections of acoustic telemetry tags from the surface and severely reduce detection efficiency at depth. We test this hypothesis indirectly with two experiments using cormorant carcasses containing tagged fish in which carcasses were either tethered to a mooring for several hours or lowered through the water to simulate diving behavior. Detection of tagged prey fish in the gut of bird carcasses was severely reduced or negated completely, supporting our hypothesis. By comparison, as expected, tagged fish that were not in the gut of bird carcasses were detected at a higher frequency. Depth and distance to passive moored receivers also affected detection probability of tagged fish with more detections at depth and when closer to the receiver. Our results emphasized the importance of accounting for avian predation of tagged fish in studies of prey species in surface waters. Further, while recent development of predation sensing tags has illustrated a few examples of bird predation, our results demonstrate that determining that a tagged fish has been consumed by a diving bird will be difficult and will likely require alternative methods or technologies.

Animal Biotelemetry↗

USGS2026

Evaluating the use of uncrewed surface vessels to enhance Lake Erie acoustic prey-fish surveys

Incorporation of autonomous uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) into large-scale acoustic surveys may enhance spatiotemporal extent and quality of fish density estimates. Lake Erie is currently surveyed by three motorized research vessels (RVs), which annually collect acoustic data and estimate prey-fish abundances. To evaluate the feasibility of incorporating a USV into the existing survey to increase spatial coverage, we compared paired acoustic measurements of target strength (TS), area backscattering coefficient (ABC), and areal fish density from four motorized RVs (three currently and one historically used) and one USV (Saildrone Explorer). Acoustic data were collected along 2-km transects during five sampling events distributed throughout Lake Erie. Despite observing event-specific differences that were likely impacted by sampling conditions, survey-level estimates of areal density between RVs and the USV were comparable (i.e., RV 6% lower than USV). RVs and the USV appear to react differently (speed and stability) to variable environmental conditions (wind and waves), which impacted data quality and must be mitigated in future applications. However, similar to previous comparisons in marine and freshwater environments, incorporating a USV into an acoustic survey could enhance annual fish density estimates by increasing effort, spatial coverage, logistical flexibility, and biological data collection opportunities from RVs.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2025

Larval fish export in response to altered discharge in the St. Marys river rapids

The St. Marys River (SMR) forms the border between Michigan, USA, and Ontario, Canada, connecting lakes Superior and Huron. Discharge is controlled by a 16-gate water control structure upstream of the SMR rapids. The SMR rapids are a critical spawning habitat in the Great Lakes, yet the influence of regulated discharge on larval fish export remains poorly understood. From 2018 to 2021, larval fish were sampled across four locations to assess community composition and export dynamics under varying discharge releases. Rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) dominated catches (87.9 %), followed by species in the family Leuciscidae (i.e., native minnows) and burbot ( Lota lota ). Larval densities were strongly influenced by water temperature and, to a lesser extent, discharge. Bayesian state-space models estimated a total export of ∼ 41.3 million larvae from the rapids across 3 years, with the highest export in 2019. Rainbow smelt larvae exhibited peak densities at intermediate flows (300–600 m 3 s −1 ) and temperatures (∼18–19 °C), while non-rainbow smelt taxa showed species-specific, less consistent responses. Nighttime sampling consistently yielded higher larval densities. Export estimates varied by analysis but both manual and Bayesian approaches captured similar interannual and taxonomic trends. Despite past expectations, the larval community was largely composed of prey species, with limited representation of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ), lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), or walleye ( Sander vitreus ). These results suggest the SMR rapids currently support significant forage fish production and highlight the importance of discharge and temperature in structuring larval export.

St Mary's River rapids↗

USGS2025

Dead giveaway: Rising mortality rates suggest effectiveness of Lake Erie grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) response

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are large, invasive fish that threaten Lake Erie’s economy and ecosystem. Incidental catches of grass carp have occurred since the 1980s in Lake Erie, while multi-day removal events were carried out in 2014 and 2017. To mitigate ecosystem impacts, a large-scale, multi-agency response to remove as many grass carp as possible from the Lake Erie basin (“strike teams”) began in 2018 and has increased every year. To date, total annual removals of fish has been the primary measure of progress; however, total annual removals do not indicate how efforts are affecting the grass carp population. Population vital rates, such as mortality rate, can indicate population demographic changes and may provide an alternative approach to measure how removals have impacted the grass carp population. We estimated annual mortality rates using 553 grass carp, representing 82.9 % of all grass carp removed in the Lake Erie basin, using a hierarchical catch-curve model and catch-at-age data from 2014 to 2022. Annual average mortality rates were initially low (4.3 %) and increased between 2017 and 2022 with the highest mortality (13.6 %) observed in 2021. Positive correlations between mortality and the number of fish harvested per year suggest that removals may be driving increases in the grass carp mortality rate. This increase in mortality rate shows promise for controlling the spread of grass carp within the Lake Erie ecosystem. This research supports the needs of fishery managers to better understand grass carp population dynamics and the adaptive management framework identified in the Lake Erie Grass Carp Adaptive Response Strategy.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2025

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2024

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Lake Erie’s Fish Community Objectives (FCOs) developed in 2020 (Francis et al. 2020). The 2024 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Lake Erie Biological Station Annual Report is responsive to these FCOs and the USGS obligations via a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU 2017) with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and track population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations were sustained investigations of native percids, prey fish populations, and Lake Trout. All work was conducted as part of the Deepwater Science Program under the authority of the Great Lakes Fishery Research Authorization Act of 2019 (16 USC §941h). The USGS 2024 Deepwater Science Program fieldwork began in Lake Erie in March and concluded in December, using trawl, gill net, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling devices, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 44 bottom trawls covering 41 ha of lake bottom and catching 48,936 fish totaling 995 kg in the West Basin of Lake Erie, with detailed results described below. Overnight gill net sets (n=25) for coldwater species were performed in the East Basin of Lake Erie. A total of 8 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 106 fish, 92 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. Results from coldwater species assessments will be reported in the Coldwater Task Group report to the GLFC and the CLC (CTG 2025). These reports are used to inform Lake Trout stocking decisions and direct lamprey control measures (16 USC §939a). USGS hydroacoustic sampling included twenty-six 5-km transects (130 km total) in the Central Basin as part of a collaborative lake-wide survey with details and results reported by the Forage Task Group (FTG 2025). Lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=12) and water quality profiles (n=12) to populate a database maintained by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR), Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) infrastructure throughout all three Lake Erie basins and tributaries, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2024 during June and September. The survey design compliments the August ODNR- OMNRF effort by reinforcing stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity, and community structure. Data from this effort are accessible for download (Keretz et al. 2025)

Lake Erie↗

USGS2024

Egg size scales negatively with system size in a periodic fish species

Optimal egg size theory implies that female organisms balance between fecundity and individual offspring investment according to their environment. Past interspecific studies suggest that fishes in large marine systems generally produce smaller eggs than those in small freshwater systems. We tested whether intraspecific egg size variation reflected a similar pattern by comparing egg size among yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) populations inhabiting a range of system sizes. In 2018, 2019, and 2023, we collected yellow perch egg samples from 12 locations in systems ranging in surface area from 37 to 5,390,492 ha. First, we found that egg diameter significantly increased with maternal total length in five of eight individually tested populations. After accounting for these maternal effects, we found a significant interaction, where females inhabiting larger lakes, such as the main basins of Lakes Erie and Michigan, produced smaller eggs than those in smaller inland lakes, and the greatest differences were demonstrated among females of greater total length. This egg size variation in the largest females is consistent with interspecific egg size comparisons between marine and freshwater fishes. However, by examining a single species across vastly different environments, we were able to support theoretical expectations that maternal investment in offspring should vary with environmental conditions controlling early-life resource acquisition and competition.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Historical and morphological evidence for a remnant population of Lake Erie cisco Coregonus artedi (albus) in Crystal Lake, Pennsylvania

The cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) population in Crystal Lake, Pennsylvania, is of great scientific interest as it either originated from Lake Erie or Lake Ontario. Cisco in Lake Erie once supported the largest freshwater fishery in the world, but populations were extirpated by 1960. We conducted a morphological analysis of Crystal Lake cisco to determine whether it was consistent with a distinctive Lake Erie form ( albus ), which was also historically documented, albeit rarely, in western Lake Ontario. Using principal component analysis, we compared eight morphometric ratios and one meristic from our Crystal Lake cisco collection with historical and contemporary collections of cisco from Lakes Erie and Ontario. Maximum likelihood ellipse overlaps between Crystal Lake cisco and presumed albus (the dominant Lake Erie form prior to extirpation) collections averaged 54%. For all groups, the greatest morphological overlap (73.9%) occurred between Crystal Lake and 1957 Lake Erie cisco, which only differed from Crystal Lake cisco in dorsal fin length. Alternatively, overlap between Crystal Lake cisco and all other Lake Ontario collections averaged 3.2%. Our results demonstrate that Crystal Lake cisco are likely an albus form; furthermore, historical documentation and our morphological results suggest a Lake Erie origin. Substantial overlap between Crystal Lake cisco and Lake Ontario albus collected in 1917 is likely explained by continuous entrainment of Lake Erie larvae into Lake Ontario. We suspect this created an albus metapopulation spanning Lakes Erie and Ontario, yet albus are no longer observed in either lake today.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Multi-decadal trophic shifts in Lake Erie yellow perch Perca flavescens

In Lake Erie, yellow perch Perca flavescens support vast commercial and recreational fisheries, yet populations have recently declined. Using N = 5889 yellow perch stomachs collected from 1997 to 2021, we explored trends in the feeding ecology and trophic level of yellow perch with generalized additive models. Models revealed a significant decrease in yellow perch trophic level (−0.15 trophic levels in the last decade), and significant dietary shifts. Yellow perch have shifted away from feeding on piscine prey and round goby Neogobius melanostomus over the 25-year period, and now feed on invertebrates more frequently—including invasive waterfleas ( Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi ) and chironomids. Dietary patterns appear to reflect broad ecological changes—invasive waterfleas have proliferated while populations of forage fish and round goby have declined. Furthermore, hypoxia events have increased in duration and severity, which may explain observed increases in chironomid consumption, which are hypoxia tolerant. This study demonstrates trophic adaptability in yellow perch, which have changed feeding behavior and trophic position in response to novel invaders and changing environmental conditions.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2024

Paired comparisons with quiet surface drones show evidence of fish behavioral response to motorized vessels during acoustic surveys in Lake Superior

Acoustic surveys are important for fish stock assessments, but fish responses to survey vessels can bias acoustic estimates. We leveraged quiet uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to characterize potential bias in acoustic surveys. Five conventional motorized ships overtook USVs from astern over 2 km transects at night in Lake Superior in 2022. We examined the difference in acoustic backscatter, average target depth, and average target strength (TS) between USV and motorized vessels. Although sound level measurements from the motorized vessels sometimes exceeded recommendations for scientific vessels, we did not detect differences in acoustic measures among survey vessels. However, the USVs recorded 2 dB higher acoustic backscatter and TS than motorized vessels, leading to ~15% higher fish densities with drones when using in situ TS and echo integration. Differences in fish density would increase to 30-60% if a standard TS value was applied. Target depth did not differ between USVs and motorized ships. These results are consistent with a change in orientation but not depth of insonified fish and limited horizontal avoidance of motorized survey vessels.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2024

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2023

This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2023. Analyses herein evaluated trends in total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity and community structure. Data from this effort can be explored interactively online and are accessible for download. Annual survey data are added to these sources as data become available.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Food web changes reflected in age-0 piscivore diets and growth

Lake Erie walleye ( Stizostedion vitreum ) recruitment fluctuates annually and depends partially on their diet and growth during their first year of life. In recent decades, age-0 walleye diet and growth may be responding to food web changes in western Lake Erie. To determine how age-0 walleye have responded to changes in prey species and abundance, we compared diet between 2019, 2014 and 1994–1999. Larval walleye ate predominantly cyclopoids in 2019, compared to 1994–1999 when calanoids were the most consumed copepod. Juvenile walleye ate predominantly large cladocerans and benthic invertebrates in 2019, compared to 2014 and 1994 when fish was the most consumed prey. Additionally, in 2019 and 2014, age-0 walleye ate two of the current aquatic invasive species (AIS), Bythotrephes longimanu s and Neogobius melanostomus , and the historical AIS, Osmerus mordax . Age-0 walleye were smaller in 2019 than in 2014 and switched to consuming more AIS and less fish suggesting that more energetically favourable prey were not available. While age-0 walleye showed adaptation to new prey and conditions, they had a lower quality diet because they consumed less fish, but also because the invasive fish they now consume have a lower energy density than native species. However, lower quality diet and size may not result in reduced survival, if adequate alternative prey is available. Continued monitoring of age-0 walleye diet could provide confirmation that lower diet quality during the first year decreased walleye growth and aid to identify any effects changes in age-0 diets has on recruitment to the adult population.

Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2023

Evaluating population trends of juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon at low abundance in a dynamic estuarine environment (Hudson River, New York)

Evaluating population trends in dynamic estuarine environments can be challenging, especially when survey data include a high percentage of zero observations. In fishery-independent surveys, zeros that come from reduced susceptibility to sample gears and reduced availability of the population to the survey impact survey catchability and negatively bias relative abundance indices. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to standardize a juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) relative abundance index (Hudson River, New York) that included a high proportion (42%) of zero observations and intra- and interannually variable covariates. Reduced susceptibility was related to low water temperature, with the percentage of zeroes increasing rapidly below 7°C. Availability was influenced by temperature and distance to salt front, as catch rates increased with temperature and peaked in mesohaline waters ~27 km downstream of the predicted salt front. An alternative index suggested significant population growth ( r = 0.15; p -value = 0.007) occurred from 2004 to 2015. The zero-inflated model helped better understand Hudson River juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon ecology and relative trends in abundance, to better inform future management and monitoring decisions along the Atlantic Coast.

New York↗

USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

USGS2022

Bayesian applications in environmental and ecological studies with R and Stan

Modern ecological and environmental sciences are dominated by observational data. As a result, traditional statistical training often leaves scientists ill-prepared for the data analysis tasks they encounter in their work. Bayesian methods provide a more robust and flexible tool for data analysis, as they enable information from different sources to be brought into the modelling process. Bayesian Applications in Evnironmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan provides a Bayesian framework for model formulation, parameter estimation, and model evaluation in the context of analyzing environmental and ecological data. Features: An accessible overview of Bayesian methods in environmental and ecological studies Emphasizes the hypothetical deductive process, particularly model formulation Necessary background material on Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation Detailed case studies, covering water quality monitoring and assessment, ecosystem response to urbanization, fisheries ecology, and more Advanced chapter on Bayesian applications, including Bayesian networks and a change point model Complete code for all examples, along with the data used in the book, are available via GitHub The book is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers in the environmental and ecological sciences, as well as environmental management professionals. This is a group of people representing diverse subject matter fields, who could benefit from the potential power and flexibility of Bayesian methods.

Book↗