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Mark E. Reid

Publications and source records attributed to Mark E. Reid.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Control of landslide volume and hazard by glacial stratigraphic architecture, Northwest Washington state, USA

Landslide volumes span many orders of magnitude, but large-volume slides tend to travel farther and consequently can pose a greater hazard. In northwest Washington State, USA, a landscape abounding with landslides big and small, the recent occurrence of the large-volume and tragically deadly State Route 530 (Oso) landslide is a stark reminder of the hazards associated with glacial terraces lining valleys of the western Cascade Range. What controls the differences in location and size of these slope failures? Here, we examine the control on landslide volume and failure style by terrace sedimentary architecture. We analyze lidar topographic data in three nearby valleys and find significant variation in landslide deposit volumes, morphology, and relative mobility in each valley. Geologic data show that each site differs in the thickness and position of outwash, tills, and glaciolacustrine clays. Combining a three-dimensional limit-equilibrium slope-stability analysis (Scoops3D) with simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow (VS2Dt), we show that landslide volumes are highly sensitive both to the distribution of material strength as well as the location of perched water tables. Modeled landslides match observed failure sizes and depths in all valleys when the effects of variably saturated groundwater flow are included. The position and thickness of low-strength strata act as first-order controls on landslide volume, with peak volumes for stratigraphic geometries similar to that of the valley containing the Oso landslide. Knowledge of feedbacks between lithology and hydrology is therefore critical to assess the landslide hazard and evolution of landscapes composed of stratigraphically layered units.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Forecasting inundation from debris flows that grow during travel, with application to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Many debris flows increase in volume as they travel downstream, enhancing their mobility and hazard. Volumetric growth can result from diverse physical processes, such as channel sediment entrainment, stream bank collapse, adjacent landsliding, hillslope erosion and rilling, and coalescence of multiple debris flows; incorporating these varied phenomena into physics-based debris-flow models is challenging. As an alternative, we embedded effects of debris-flow growth into an empirical/statistical approach to forecast potential inundation areas within digital landscapes in a GIS framework. Our approach used an empirical debris-growth function to account for the effects of growth phenomena. We applied this methodology to a debris-flow-prone area in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, where detailed mapping revealed areas of erosion and deposition along paths of debris flows that occurred during a large storm in 1996. Erosion was predominant in stream channels with slopes > 5°. Using pre- and post-event aerial photography, we derived upslope contributing area and channel-length growth factors. Our method reproduced the observed inundation patterns produced by individual debris flows; it also generated reproducible, objective potential inundation maps for entire drainage networks. These maps better matched observations than those using previous methods that focus on proximal or distal regions of a drainage network.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2015

Landslide mobility and hazards: implications of the 2014 Oso disaster

Landslides reflect landscape instability that evolves over meteorological and geological timescales, and they also pose threats to people, property, and the environment. The severity of these threats depends largely on landslide speed and travel distance, which are collectively described as landslide &ldquo;mobility&rdquo;. To investigate causes and effects of mobility, we focus on a disastrous landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014 near Oso, Washington, USA, following a long period of abnormally wet weather. The landslide's impacts were severe because its mobility exceeded that of prior historical landslides at the site, and also exceeded that of comparable landslides elsewhere. The &sim;8&times;10 6 m 3 landslide originated on a gently sloping (<20&deg;) riverside bluff only 180 m high, yet it traveled across the entire &sim;1 km breadth of the adjacent floodplain and spread laterally a similar distance. Seismological evidence indicates that high-speed, flowing motion of the landslide began after about 50 s of preliminary slope movement, and observational evidence supports the hypothesis that the high mobility of the landslide resulted from liquefaction of water-saturated sediment at its base. Numerical simulation of the event using a newly developed model indicates that liquefaction and high mobility can be attributed to compression- and/or shear-induced sediment contraction that was strongly dependent on initial conditions. An alternative numerical simulation indicates that the landslide would have been far less mobile if its initial porosity and water content had been only slightly lower. Sensitive dependence of landslide mobility on initial conditions has broad implications for assessment of landslide hazards.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Scoops3D: software to analyze 3D slope stability throughout a digital landscape

The computer program, Scoops3D, evaluates slope stability throughout a digital landscape represented by a digital elevation model (DEM). The program uses a three-dimensional (3D) method of columns approach to assess the stability of many (typically millions) potential landslides within a user-defined size range. For each potential landslide (or failure), Scoops3D assesses the stability of a rotational, spherical slip surface encompassing many DEM cells using a 3D version of either Bishop&rsquo;s simplified method or the Ordinary (Fellenius) method of limit-equilibrium analysis. Scoops3D has several options for the user to systematically and efficiently search throughout an entire DEM, thereby incorporating the effects of complex surface topography. In a thorough search, each DEM cell is included in multiple potential failures, and Scoops3D records the lowest stability (factor of safety) for each DEM cell, as well as the size (volume or area) associated with each of these potential landslides. It also determines the least-stable potential failure for the entire DEM. The user has a variety of options for building a 3D domain, including layers or full 3D distributions of strength and pore-water pressures, simplistic earthquake loading, and unsaturated suction conditions. Results from Scoops3D can be readily incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS) or other visualization software. This manual includes information on the theoretical basis for the slope-stability analysis, requirements for constructing and searching a 3D domain, a detailed operational guide (including step-by-step instructions for using the graphical user interface [GUI] software, Scoops3D-i) and input/output file specifications, practical considerations for conducting an analysis, results of verification tests, and multiple examples illustrating the capabilities of Scoops3D. Easy-to-use software installation packages are available for the Windows or Macintosh operating systems; these packages install the compiled Scoops3D program, the GUI (Scoops3D-i), and associated documentation. Several Scoops3D examples, including all input and output files, are available as well. The source code is written in the Fortran 90 language and can be compiled to run on any computer operating system with an appropriate compiler.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2014

Using monitoring and modeling to define the hazard posed by the reactivated Ferguson rock slide, Merced Canyon, California

Rapid onset natural disasters such as large landslides create a need for scientific information about the event, which is vital to ensuring public safety, restoring infrastructure, preventing additional damage, and resuming normal economic activity. At the same time, there is limited data available upon which to base reliable scientific responses. Monitoring movement and modeling runout are mechanisms for gaining vital data and reducing the uncertainty created about a rapid onset natural disaster. We examine the effectiveness of this approach during the 2006 Ferguson rock slide disaster, which severed California Highway 140. Even after construction of a bypass restoring normal access to the community of El Portal, CA and a major entrance to Yosemite National Park, significant scientific questions remained. The most important for the affected public and emergency service agencies was the likelihood that access would again be severed during the impending rainy season and the possibility of a landslide dam blocking flow in the Merced River. Real-time monitoring of the Ferguson rock slide yielded clear information on the continuing movement of the rock slide and its implications for emergency response actions. Similarly, simulation of runout deposits using a physically based model together with volumes and slope steepness information demonstrated the conditions necessary for a landslide dam-forming event and the possible consequences of such an event given the dimensions of potential rock slide deposits.

California↗
USGS2014

Plenary: Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA

Landslide hazard assessment at local and regional scales contributes to mitigation of landslides in developing and densely populated areas by providing information for (1) land development and redevelopment plans and regulations, (2) emergency preparedness plans, and (3) economic analysis to (a) set priorities for engineered mitigation projects and (b) define areas of similar levels of hazard for insurance purposes. US Geological Survey (USGS) research on landslide hazard assessment has explored a range of methods that can be used to estimate temporal and spatial landslide potential and probability for various scales and purposes. Cases taken primarily from our work in the U.S. Pacific Northwest illustrate and compare a sampling of methods, approaches, and progress. For example, landform mapping using high-resolution topographic data resulted in identification of about four times more landslides in Seattle, Washington, than previous efforts using aerial photography. Susceptibility classes based on the landforms captured 93 % of all historical landslides (all types) throughout the city. A deterministic model for rainfall infiltration and shallow landslide initiation, TRIGRS, was able to identify locations of 92 % of historical shallow landslides in southwest Seattle. The potentially unstable areas identified by TRIGRS occupied only 26 % of the slope areas steeper than 20°. Addition of an unsaturated infiltration model to TRIGRS expands the applicability of the model to areas of highly permeable soils. Replacement of the single cell, 1D factor of safety with a simple 3D method of columns improves accuracy of factor of safety predictions for both saturated and unsaturated infiltration models. A 3D deterministic model for large, deep landslides, SCOOPS, combined with a three-dimensional model for groundwater flow, successfully predicted instability in steep areas of permeable outwash sand and topographic reentrants. These locations are consistent with locations of large, deep, historically active landslides. For an area in Seattle, a composite of the three maps illustrates how maps produced by different approaches might be combined to assess overall landslide potential. Examples from Oregon, USA, illustrate how landform mapping and deterministic analysis for shallow landslide potential have been adapted into standardized methods for efficiently producing detailed landslide inventory and shallow landslide susceptibility maps that have consistent content and format statewide.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Displacement fields from point cloud data: Application of particle imaging velocimetry to landslide geodesy

Acquiring spatially continuous ground-surface displacement fields from Terrestrial Laser Scanners (TLS) will allow better understanding of the physical processes governing landslide motion at detailed spatial and temporal scales. Problems arise, however, when estimating continuous displacement fields from TLS point-clouds because reflecting points from sequential scans of moving ground are not defined uniquely, thus repeat TLS surveys typically do not track individual reflectors. Here, we implemented the cross-correlation-based Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) method to derive a surface deformation field using TLS point-cloud data. We estimated associated errors using the shape of the cross-correlation function and tested the method's performance with synthetic displacements applied to a TLS point cloud. We applied the method to the toe of the episodically active Cleveland Corral Landslide in northern California using TLS data acquired in June 2005–January 2007 and January–May 2010. Estimated displacements ranged from decimeters to several meters and they agreed well with independent measurements at better than 9% root mean squared (RMS) error. For each of the time periods, the method provided a smooth, nearly continuous displacement field that coincides with independently mapped boundaries of the slide and permits further kinematic and mechanical inference. For the 2010 data set, for instance, the PIV-derived displacement field identified a diffuse zone of displacement that preceded by over a month the development of a new lateral shear zone. Additionally, the upslope and downslope displacement gradients delineated by the dense PIV field elucidated the non-rigid behavior of the slide.

California↗
USGS2012

Real-time monitoring of landslides

Landslides cause fatalities and property damage throughout the Nation. To reduce the impact from hazardous landslides, the U.S. Geological Survey develops and uses real-time and near-real-time landslide monitoring systems. Monitoring can detect when hillslopes are primed for sliding and can provide early indications of rapid, catastrophic movement. Continuous information from up-to-the-minute or real-time monitoring provides prompt notification of landslide activity, advances our understanding of landslide behavior, and enables more effective engineering and planning efforts.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

Assessment of topographic and drainage network controls on debris-flow travel distance along the west coast of the United States

To better understand controls on debris-flow entrainment and travel distance, we examined topographic and drainage network characteristics of initiation locations in two separate debris-flow prone areas located 700 km apart along the west coast of the U.S. One area was located in northern California, the other in southern Oregon. In both areas, debris flows mobilized from slides during large storms, but, when stratified by number of contributing initiation locations, median debris-flow travel distances in Oregon were 5 to 8 times longer than median distances in California. Debris flows in Oregon readily entrained channel material; entrainment in California was minimal. To elucidate this difference, we registered initiation locations to high-resolution airborne LiDAR, and then examined travel distances with respect to values of slope, upslope contributing area, planform curvature, distance from initiation locations to the drainage network, and number of initiation areas that contributed to flows. Results show distinct differences in the topographic and drainage network characteristics of debris-flow initiation locations between the two study areas. Slope and planform curvature of initiation locations (landslide headscarps), commonly used to predict landslide-prone areas, were not useful for predicting debris-flow travel distances. However, a positive, power-law relation exists between median debris-flow travel distance and the number of contributing debris-flow initiation locations. Moreover, contributing area and the proximity of the initiation locations to the drainage network both influenced travel distances, but proximity to the drainage network was the better predictor of travel distance. In both study areas, flows that interacted with the drainage network flowed significantly farther than those that did not. In California, initiation sites within 60 m of the network were likely to reach the network and generate longtraveled flows; in Oregon, the threshold was 80 m.

California;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2011

Entrainment of bed sediment by debris flows: results from large-scale experiments

When debris flows grow by entraining sediment, they can become especially hazardous owing to increased volume, speed, and runout. To investigate the entrainment process, we conducted eight largescale experiments in the USGS debris-flow flume. In each experiment, we released a 6 m3 water-saturated debris flow across a 47-m long, ~12-cm thick bed of partially saturated sediment lining the 31&ordm; flume. Prior to release, we used low-intensity overhead sprinkling and real-time monitoring to control the bed-sediment wetness. As each debris flow descended the flume, we measured the evolution of flow thickness, basal total normal stress, basal pore-fluid pressure, and sediment scour depth. When debris flows traveled over relatively dry sediment, net scour was minimal, but when debris flows traveled over wetter sediment (volumetric water content > 0.22), debris-flow volume grew rapidly and flow speed and runout were enhanced. Data from scour sensors showed that entrainment occurred by rapid (5-10 cm/s), progressive scour rather than by mass failure at depth. Overriding debris flows rapidly generated high basal pore-fluid pressures when they loaded and deformed bed sediment, and in wetter beds these pressures approached lithostatic levels. Reduction of intergranular friction within the bed sediment thereby enhanced scour efficiency, entrainment, and runout.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

Debris flows typically occur when intense rainfall or snowmelt triggers landslides or extensive erosion on steep, debris-mantled slopes. The flows can then grow dramatically in size and speed as they entrain material from their beds and banks, but the mechanism of this growth is unclear. Indeed, momentum conservation implies that entrainment of static material should retard the motion of the flows if friction remains unchanged. Here we use data from large-scale experiments to assess the entrainment of bed material by debris flows. We find that entrainment is accompanied by increased flow momentum and speed only if large positive pore pressures develop in wet bed sediments as the sediments are overridden by debris flows. The increased pore pressure facilitates progressive scour of the bed, reduces basal friction and instigates positive feedback that causes flow speed, mass and momentum to increase. If dryer bed sediment is entrained, however, the feedback becomes negative and flow momentum declines. We infer that analogous feedbacks could operate in other types of gravity-driven mass flow that interact with erodible beds.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2010

Gravity-driven groundwater flow and slope failure potential: 1. Elastic effective-stress model

Hilly or mountainous topography influences gravity-driven groundwater flow and the consequent distribution of effective stress in shallow subsurface environments. Effective stress, in turn, influences the potential for slope failure. To evaluate these influences, we formulate a two-dimensional, steady state, poroelastic model. The governing equations incorporate groundwater effects as body forces, and they demonstrate that spatially uniform pore pressure changes do not influence effective stresses. We implement the model using two finite element codes. As an illustrative case, we calculate the groundwater flow field, total body force field, and effective stress field in a straight, homogeneous hillslope. The total body force and effective stress fields show that groundwater flow can influence shear stresses as well as effective normal stresses. In most parts of the hillslope, groundwater flow significantly increases the Coulomb failure potential Φ, which we define as the ratio of maximum shear stress to mean effective normal stress. Groundwater flow also shifts the locus of greatest failure potential toward the slope toe. However, the effects of groundwater flow on failure potential are less pronounced than might be anticipated on the basis of a simpler, one-dimensional, limit equilibrium analysis. This is a consequence of continuity, compatibility, and boundary constraints on the two-dimensional flow and stress fields, and it points to important differences between our elastic continuum model and limit equilibrium models commonly used to assess slope stability.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Gravity-driven groundwater flow and slope failure potential: 2. Effects of slope morphology, material properties, and hydraulic heterogeneity

Hillslope morphology, material properties, and hydraulic heterogeneities influence the role of groundwater flow in provoking slope instability. We evaluate these influences quantitatively by employing the elastic effective stress model and Coulomb failure potential concept described in our companion paper (Iverson and Reid, this issue). Sensitivity analyses show that of four dimensionless quantities that control model results (i.e., Poisson's ratio, porosity, topographic profile, and hydraulic conductivity contrast), slope profiles and hydraulic conductivity contrasts have the most pronounced and diverse effects on groundwater seepage forces, effective stresses, and slope failure potentials. Gravity-driven groundwater flow strongly influences the shape of equilibrium hillslopes, which we define as those with uniform near-surface failure potentials. For homogeneous slopes with no groundwater flow, equilibrium hillslope profiles are straight; but with gravity-driven flow, equilibrium profiles are concave or convex-concave, and the largest failure potentials exist near the bases of convex slopes. In heterogeneous slopes, relatively slight hydraulic conductivity contrasts of less than 1 order of magnitude markedly affect the seepage force field and slope failure potential. Maximum effects occur if conductivity contrasts are of four orders of magnitude or more, and large hydraulic gradients commonly result in particularly large failure potentials just upslope from where low-conductivity layers intersect the ground surface.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Volcano collapse promoted by progressive strength reduction: New data from Mount St. Helens

Rock shear strength plays a fundamental role in volcano flank collapse, yet pertinent data from modern collapse surfaces are rare. Using samples collected from the inferred failure surface of the massive 1980 collapse of Mount St. Helens (MSH), we determined rock shear strength via laboratory tests designed to mimic conditions in the pre-collapse edifice. We observed that the 1980 failure shear surfaces formed primarily in pervasively shattered older dome rocks; failure was not localized in sloping volcanic strata or in weak, hydrothermally altered rocks. Our test results show that rock shear strength under large confining stresses is reduced &sim;20% as a result of large quasi-static shear strain, as preceded the 1980 collapse of MSH. Using quasi-3D slope-stability modeling, we demonstrate that this mechanical weakening could have provoked edifice collapse, even in the absence of transiently elevated pore-fluid pressures or earthquake ground shaking. Progressive strength reduction could promote collapses at other volcanic edifices.

Washington↗
USGS2010

Preliminary slope-stability analysis of Augustine Volcano

Augustine Volcano has been a prolific producer of large debris avalanches during the Holocene. Originating as landslides from the steep upper edifice, these avalanches typically slide into the surrounding ocean. At least one debris avalanche that occurred in 1883 during an eruption initiated a far-traveled tsunami. The possible occurrence of another edifice collapse and ensuing tsunami was a concern during the 2006 eruption of Augustine. To aid in hazard assessments, we have evaluated the slope stability of Augustine's edifice, using a quasi-three-dimensional, geotechnically based slope-stability model implemented in the computer program SCOOPS. We analyzed the effects of topography, variations in rock strength, and earthquake-induced strong ground motion on the relative stability of millions of potential large (>0.1 km 3 volume) slope failures throughout the edifice. Preliminary results from pre-2006 topography provide three insights. First, the predicted stability of all parts of the upper edifice is approximately the same, suggesting an equal likelihood of slope failure, in agreement with geologic observations that debris avalanches have swept all sectors of the volcano. Second, the least stable (by a small amount) sector is on the east flank where a debris avalanche would flow into deeper ocean water and a resulting tsunami would be directed toward the southwestern part of the Kenai Peninsula. Third, most model scenarios predict stable edifice slopes, and only scenarios assuming extensive weak rocks and moderate to strong ground shaking predict potential large collapses. Because other transient triggering mechanisms, such as shallow magma intrusion, may be needed to instigate slope instability, monitoring ground deformation and seismicity could

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Assessing deep-seated landslide susceptibility using 3-D groundwater and slope-stability analyses, southwestern Seattle, Washington

In Seattle, Washington, deep-seated landslides on bluffs along Puget Sound have historically caused extensive damage to land and structures. These large failures are controlled by three-dimensional (3-D) variations in strength and pore-water pressures. We assess the slope stability of part of southwestern Seattle using a 3-D limit-equilibrium analysis coupled with a 3-D groundwater flow model. Our analyses use a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) combined with assignment of strength and hydraulic properties based on geologic units. The hydrogeology of the Seattle area consists of a layer of permeable glacial outwash sand that overlies less permeable glacial lacustrine silty clay. Using a 3-D groundwater model, MODFLOW-2000, we simulate a water table above the less permeable units and calibrate the model to observed conditions. The simulated pore-pressure distribution is then used in a 3-D slope-stability analysis, SCOOPS, to quantify the stability of the coastal bluffs. For wet winter conditions, our analyses predict that the least stable areas are steep hillslopes above Puget Sound, where pore pressures are elevated in the outwash sand. Groundwater flow converges in coastal reentrants, resulting in elevated pore pressures and destabilization of slopes. Regions predicted to be least stable include the areas in or adjacent to three mapped historically active deep-seated landslides. The results of our 3-D analyses differ significantly from a slope map or results from one-dimensional (1-D) analyses.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Ferguson rock slide buries California State Highway near Yosemite National Park

During spring 2006, talus from the toe area of a rock-block slide of about 800,000 m 3 buried California State Highway 140, one of the main routes into heavily-visited Yosemite National Park, USA. Closure of the highway for 92 days caused business losses of about 4.8 million USD. The rock slide, composed of slate and phyllite, moved slowly downslope from April to June 2006, creating a fresh head scarp with 9-12 m of displacement. Movement of the main rock slide, a re-activation of an older slide, was triggered by an exceptionally wet spring 2006, following a very wet spring 2005. As of autumn 2006, most of the main slide appeared to be at rest, although rocks occasionally continued to fall from steep, fractured rock masses at the toe area of the slide. Future behavior of the slide is difficult to predict, but possible scenarios range from continued scattered rock fall to complete rapid failure of the entire mass. Although unlikely except under very destabilizing circumstances, a worst-case, rapid failure of the entire rock slide could extend across the Merced River, damming the river and creating a reservoir. As a temporary measure, traffic has been rerouted to the opposite side of the Merced River at about the same elevation as the buried section of Highway 140. A state-of-the-art monitoring system has been installed to detect movement in the steep talus slope, movement of the main slide mass, local strong ground motion from regional earthquakes, and sudden changes in stream levels, possibly indicating damming of the river by slide material.

California↗