Geology topics

Maria Herrmann

Publications and source records attributed to Maria Herrmann.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia

Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM) projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however, the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about 50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in terrestrial runoff.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

Challenges in quantifying air-water carbon dioxide flux using estuarine water quality data: Case study for Chesapeake Bay

Estuaries play an uncertain but potentially important role in the global carbon cycle via CO 2 outgassing. The uncertainty mainly stems from the paucity of studies that document the full spatial and temporal variability of estuarine surface water partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ). Here, we explore the potential of utilizing the abundance of pH data from historical water quality monitoring programs to fill the data void via a case study of the mainstem Chesapeake Bay (eastern United States). We calculate p CO 2 and the air-water CO 2 flux at monthly resolution from 1998 to 2018 from tidal fresh to polyhaline waters, paying special attention to the error estimation. The biggest error is due to the pH measurement error, and errors due to the gas transfer velocity, temporal sampling, the alkalinity mixing model, and the organic alkalinity estimation are 72%, 27%, 15%, and 5%, respectively, of the error due to pH. Seasonal, interannual, and spatial variability in the air-water flux and surface p CO 2 is high, and a correlation analysis with oxygen reveals that this variability is driven largely by biological processes. Averaged over 1998–2018, the mainstem bay is a weak net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere of 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) mol m −2 yr −1 (best estimate and 95% confidence interval). Our findings suggest that the abundance of historical pH measurements in estuaries around the globe should be mined in order to constrain the large spatial and temporal variability of the CO 2 exchange between estuaries and the atmosphere.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

Alkalinity in tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Despite the important role of alkalinity in estuarine carbon cycling, the seasonal and decadal variability of alkalinity, particularly within multiple tidal tributaries of the same estuary, is poorly understood. Here we analyze more than 26,000 alkalinity measurements, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, in the major tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, a large, coastal-plain estuary of eastern North America. The long-term means of alkalinity in tidal-fresh waters vary by a factor of 6 among seven tidal tributaries, reflecting the alkalinity of non-tidal rivers draining to these estuaries. At 25 stations, mostly in the Potomac River Estuary, we find significant long-term increasing trends that exceed the trends in the non-tidal rivers upstream of those stations. Box model calculations in the Potomac River Estuary indicate that the main cause of the estuarine trends is a declining alkalinity sink. The magnitude of this sink is consistent with a simple model of calcification by the invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea. More generally, in tidal tributaries fed by high-alkalinity non-tidal rivers, alkalinity is consumed, with sinks ranging from 8 to 27% of the upstream input. In contrast, tidal tributaries that are fed by low-alkalinity non-tidal rivers have sources of alkalinity amounting to 34 to 171% of the upstream input. For a single estuarine system, the Chesapeake Bay has diverse alkalinity dynamics and can thus serve as a laboratory for studying the numerous processes influencing alkalinity among the world’s estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2018

Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries

1. The top 1 m of tidal wetland soils and estuarine sediments of North America contains 1,886 ± 1046 teragrams of carbon (Tg C). [High confidence, Very likely] 2. Soil carbon accumulation rate (i.e., sediment burial) in North American tidal wetlands is currently 9 ± 5 Tg C per year and estuarine carbon burial is 5 ± 3 Tg C per year. [High confidence, Likely] 3. The lateral flux of carbon from tidal wetlands to estuaries is 16 ± 10 Tg C per year for North America. [Low confidence, Likely] 4. In North America, tidal wetlands remove 27 ± 13 Tg C per year from the atmosphere, estuaries outgas 10 ± 10 Tg C per year to the atmosphere, and the net uptake by the combined wetland-estuary system is 17 ± 16 Tg C per year. [Low confidence, Likely] 5. Research and modeling needs are greatest for understanding responses to accelerated sea level rise, mapping tidal wetland and estuarine extent and quantification of CO2 and CH4 exchange with the atmosphere, especially in large, under-sampled, and rapidly changing regions. [High confidence, Likely] Note: Confidence levels are provided as appropriate for quantitative, but not qualitative, Key Findings and statements.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Net ecosystem production and organic carbon balance of U.S. East Coast estuaries: A synthesis approach

Net ecosystem production (NEP) and the overall organic carbon budget for the estuaries along the East Coast of the United States are estimated. We focus on the open estuarine waters, excluding the fringing wetlands. We developed empirical models relating NEP to loading ratios of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to total organic carbon, and carbon burial in the sediment to estuarine water residence time and total nitrogen input across the landward boundary. Output from a data-constrained water quality model was used to estimate inputs of total nitrogen and organic carbon to the estuaries across the landward boundary, including fluvial and tidal-wetland sources. Organic carbon export from the estuaries to the continental shelf was computed by difference, assuming steady state. Uncertainties in the budget were estimated by allowing uncertainties in the supporting model relations. Collectively, U.S. East Coast estuaries are net heterotrophic, with the area-integrated NEP of −1.5 (−2.8, −1.0) Tg C yr −1 (best estimate and 95% confidence interval) and area-normalized NEP of −3.2 (−6.1, −2.3) mol C m −2 yr −1 . East Coast estuaries serve as a source of organic carbon to the shelf, exporting 3.4 (2.0, 4.3) Tg C yr −1 or 7.6 (4.4, 9.5) mol C m −2 yr −1 . Organic carbon inputs from fluvial and tidal-wetland sources for the region are estimated at 5.4 (4.6, 6.5) Tg C yr −1 or 12 (10, 14) mol C m −2 yr −1 and carbon burial in the open estuarine waters at 0.50 (0.33, 0.78) Tg C yr −1 or 1.1 (0.73, 1.7) mol C m −2 yr −1 . Our results highlight the importance of estuarine systems in the overall coastal budget of organic carbon, suggesting that in the aggregate, U.S. East Coast estuaries assimilate (via respiration and burial) ~40% of organic carbon inputs from fluvial and tidal-wetland sources and allow ~60% to be exported to the shelf.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗