Geology topics

Marco Bagnardi

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Bagnardi.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Geophysical insights into Kīlauea’s eruptive reawakening after its 2018 eruption and caldera collapse

A little more than two years after the destructive 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption and summit collapse ended, renewed volcanic activity began at Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi. During 2020–2025, activity at the volcano included six eruptions in the summit caldera, one in the Southwest Rift Zone, and one in the middle East Rift Zone, as well as multiple non-eruptive intrusions in all three locations. We categorize the volcano’s activity post-2018 into four phases based on eruption locations and style, as well as patterns of magma storage and migration inferred from geophysical data. In some cases, these observations illuminated parts of the volcano’s magmatic system for the first time since the advent of modern geophysical monitoring—particularly deformation datasets that include tilt, continuous GNSS, and InSAR. Analyses of these geodetic data and complementary seismic, geological, and geochemical observations provide an opportunity to explore summit and rift zone connectivity, rift-zone magma storage conditions, the variable geophysical manifestations of eruption onsets, magma-fault interactions, and other long-standing questions associated with eruptions and intrusions at Kīlauea.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Steps toward a satellite-based global volcano monitoring and early warning system: From pilot to demonstrator to GVEWERS

The consequences of volcanic eruptions span a broad range. Large explosive eruptions that recur every several hundred to thousands of years can impact global climate, but even small eruptions of a magnitude that takes place multiple times each year someplace on Earth can have devastating effects given the large number of people who live near volcanoes. Ground-based monitoring is inadequate or lacking at many of the world’s active volcanoes, but satellite observations can fill important gaps and provide operational awareness of volcanic unrest and eruptions. The need for satellite monitoring of volcanoes has been articulated in numerous international agreements, and for some datasets, like thermal and ultraviolet imagery, daily or sub-daily monitoring has been incorporated into operational volcano surveillance. Utilization of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets, however, has lagged. Since 2014, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) has sponsored a series of projects designed to enhance access to, and utilization of, high-resolution SAR and optical satellite imagery for volcano monitoring. The efforts have culminated in the development of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS) initiative—a global and sustainable program intended to support volcano hazards assessment and mitigation. GVEWERS builds on lessons learned from a decade of CEOS volcano projects while also providing a foundation for continuing to improve the accessibility and exploitation of satellite data for better anticipating and responding to hazardous volcanic eruptions.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2026

What a difference a day makes: When and where are daily satellite observations of morphology and deformation needed during volcanic eruptions and unrest?

Daily high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery at active volcanoes could be used to anticipate eruptions and save lives, but is only rarely available or used in real time. Specifically, daily repeat coverage of ground deformation, topography, and surface morphology at volcanoes is now possible using high-spatial resolution optical and radar imagery (< 10 m/pixel). However, multiple satellites are needed—either constellations of four or more sibling satellites or a “virtual constellation” using several different types of satellites. As part of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (G-VEWERS) project of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), we review case studies at both erupting and restless volcanoes to identify scenarios where near-daily radar (both backscatter images and interferometric products) or optical data captured noteworthy changes, including Merapi and Mount Agung, Indonesia; La Soufrière, St. Vincent; Colima, Mexico; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; and Fagradalsfjall, Iceland. Finally, we consider the resources needed to scale this globally. There are 40–50 volcanoes erupting at any given time, but currently only about 10% have daily imaging at high-spatial-resolution. The allocations of high-spatial-resolution imagery available through G-VEWERS and other open datasets (~10,000 scenes/year) are < 60% of what is needed (~17,000 scenes/year) for daily imaging of all restless and erupting volcanoes. We therefore propose criteria to prioritize where daily satellite high-spatial-resolution observations may be useful continuously or under emergency conditions based on the threat and the type of volcano/eruption.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2026

Detecting volcanic deformation in Hawaii using trustworthy multimodal deep learning techniques

Monitoring volcanoes involves a variety of data sources and methods to maintain complete continuity of coverage. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) are commonly used complementary methods to assess the deformation state of a volcano as magma migrates beneath the surface. The amount of data these methods produce, however, is growing rapidly beyond human analysis capabilities and is becoming difficult to manage. Here, we create a novel multimodal deep learning framework to ingest InSAR and GNSS data simultaneously and classify the deformation state of the system. We apply this methodology to Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i given its wealth of InSAR and GNSS data as well as its propensity to deform on multiple timescales. Our model performs with high accuracy and is able to identify both slow and fast deformation from 2015 to 2023. The multimodal nature of our model also allows us to identify the presence of atmospheric noise in InSAR data. Furthermore, we employ explainability algorithms to show that our model is making decisions for the right reasons and to connect complex black-box machine learning mappings to current real-world geodetic interpretations of the Mauna Loa magmatic system.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Insights from more than a year of ongoing episodic lava fountaining at Kilauea

Episodic lava fountaining is rare globally, with only three occurrences from Kīlauea (Hawaii) since 1823. Beginning in December 2024, an eruption within the summit crater, Halemaʻumaʻu, has produced 52 fountaining episodes to date, each lasting typically for hours and separated by days to weeks. Although multiple mechanisms have been proposed, fundamental questions remain about how magma reservoir pressure, conduit permeability, and volatile exsolution control fountaining onset. We present a multi-parameter record of episodic fountaining at Kīlauea using modern geochemical, geophysical, and geologic monitoring. These observations revealed systematic correlations between fountaining and summit inflation, enabling unprecedented quantitative forecasts. This eruption will provide new constraints on the timing, evolution, and processes driving episodic fountaining globally, and highlights Kīlauea’s role as a natural laboratory for studying volcanic processes.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

The Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite: Open data for the benefit of science and society

The Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite was established in 2008 with the goal of making large amounts of volcano monitoring data, especially satellite measurements, freely available at a site of international interest, scientific importance, and impactful natural hazards. The location was chosen because of the long history of volcanological research and innovation on the Island of Hawaiʻi, as well as the need for monitoring, assessing, and mitigating volcanic hazards for the local population. Ground-based data are provided by the U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, and several national space agencies have contributed thousands of satellite synthetic aperture radar and other data that would have otherwise required special grants or commercial purchase. Since the Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite was initiated, the vast quantity of open space-based data has resulted in the development of new applications and methodologies, successful responses to volcanic crises, and research that has informed monitoring and hazards mitigation activities. While there remain opportunities for additional coordination among supersite users and for synergistic studies that make use of the full spectrum of available ground- and space-based data, the Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite has achieved its goals of stimulating basic research to better understand Hawaiian volcanism and aiding in responses to hazardous geologic processes. The effort serves as a model for the benefits of open, low-latency, and comprehensive satellite data applied to disaster risk management and reduction, meeting a vision that has been laid out repeatedly in international agreements and accords.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Craters of habit: Patterns of deformation in the western Galápagos

The western Galápagos islands of Fernandina and Isabela comprise six active volcanoes that have deformed since first observed by satellite radar in the early 1990s. We analyse new (2015–2022) displacement time series at Alcedo, Cerro Azul, Darwin, Fernandina, Sierra Negra, and Wolf volcanoes in the context of deformation and unrest since 1992. Previous discussions of volcano deformation have focused on eruptions, major intrusive episodes, and the structure of sub-volcanic systems. We discuss the full geodetic record of deformation and show that the style of eruptions, characteristics of unrest and deformation are distinctive at each volcano. These characteristic differences in deformation and unrest styles between the volcanoes have persisted for at least three decades, since the first satellite radar measurements. These consistent differences in shallow magma storage and eruptive dynamics reflect the influence of “top-down” factors and evolutionary stage, providing a basis to understand volcanic unrest here, and to inform monitoring strategies.

Volcanica↗

USGS2020

Using conceptual models to relate multiparameter satellite data to subsurface volcanic processes in Latin America

Satellite data have been extensively used to identify volcanic behavior. However, the physical subsurface processes causing any individual manifestation of activity can be ambiguous. We propose a classification scheme for the cause of unrest that simultaneously considers three multiparameter satellite observations. The scheme is based on characteristics of the volcanic system (open, closed, and eruptive) and unrest mechanisms (intrusion, evolution, and withdrawal) occurring at shallow depths in the volcanic system. We applied these models to satellite observations acquired at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America. Of the volcanoes studied, 44 had a robust enough dataset for classification and were clustered into 4 groups and 10 subgroups with common behavioral characteristics. By identifying that these volcanoes can be clustered into a number of groupings significantly less than the number of volcanoes, we have demonstrated that commonalities in behavior patterns exist among diverse volcanic systems. Identifying volcanoes with similar characteristics underpins the use of past observations at one volcano to forecast activity at another and diverges from typical volcanic groupings, which are focused on geologic parameters (i.e., composition, volcano type, and tectonic setting). Based on satellite data alone, we have identified preeruptive intrusion prior to 15 eruptions at 12 different volcanoes, magma evolution prior to 18 eruptions at 13 volcanoes, and magma withdrawal at 3 eruptions and 3 volcanoes. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution are needed to make these relations robust. This classification scheme provides a framework for future automated clustering of volcanoes.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2019

Post-collapse gravity increase at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

We conducted gravity surveys of the summit area of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, in November 2018 and March 2019, with the goal of determining whether there was any mass change at depth following the volcano's May–August 2018 caldera collapse. Surface deformation between the two surveys was minimal, but we measured a gravity increase (maximum 44 μGal) centered on the caldera that can be modeled as mass accumulation in a region ~1 km beneath the surface. We interpret this mass increase to be mostly magma accumulation in void space that was created during the summit collapse. Caldera uplift was evident by April 2019, indicating that the magma volume had reached a point where pressurization could be sustained. Modeled gravity change suggests a maximum magma storage rate at Kīlauea's summit during November 2018 to March 2019 that is much less than the pre‐2018 magma supply rate to the volcano.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Topographic changes during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption from Single-pass Airborne InSAR

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i, was its most effusive in over 200 years. We apply the airborne Glacier and Ice Surface Topography Interferometer (GLISTIN‐A) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) instrument to measure topographic change associated with the eruption. The GLISTIN‐A radar flew in response to the eruption, acquiring observations of Kīlauea on seven days between May 18 and September 15, 2018. Topography differences were computed relative to GLISTIN‐A observations in 2017. Bare‐earth topography and off‐shore bathymetry were used to correct for vegetation and creation of new coastal land within the Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) lava flow field. We estimate that the LERZ subaerial flows total bulk volume is 0.593 ± 0.011 km 3 and that the summit collapse volume is ‐0.836 ± 0.002 km 3 . Within the temporal sampling and uncertainty from submarine flow volumes, we find that both the LERZ and caldera volume changes were approximately linear.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Gravity changes and deformation at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, associated with summit eruptive activity, 2009-2012

Analysis of microgravity and surface displacement data collected at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii (USA), between December 2009 and November 2012 suggests a net mass accumulation at ~1.5 km depth beneath the northeast margin of Halema‘uma‘u Crater, within Kīlauea Caldera. Although residual gravity increases and decreases are accompanied by periods of uplift and subsidence of the surface, respectively, the volume change inferred from the modeling of interferometric synthetic aperture radar deformation data can account for only a small portion (as low as 8%) of the mass addition responsible for the gravity increase. We propose that since the opening of a new eruptive vent at the summit of Kīlauea in 2008, magma rising to the surface of the lava lake outgasses, becomes denser, and sinks to deeper levels, replacing less dense gas-rich magma stored in the Halema‘uma‘u magma reservoir. In fact, a relatively small density increase (<200 kg m −3 ) of a portion of the reservoir can produce the positive residual gravity change measured during the period with the largest mass increase, between March 2011 and November 2012. Other mechanisms may also play a role in the gravity increase without producing significant uplift of the surface, including compressibility of magma, formation of olivine cumulates, and filling of void space by magma. The rate of gravity increase, higher than during previous decades, varies through time and seems to be directly correlated with the volcanic activity occurring at both the summit and the east rift zone of the volcano.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

A new model for the growth of basaltic shields based on deformation of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos Islands

Space-geodetic measurements of surface deformation produced by the most recent eruptions at Fernandina – the most frequently erupting volcano in the Galápagos Archipelago – reveal that all have initiated with the intrusion of subhorizontal sills from a shallow magma reservoir. This includes eruptions from fissures that are oriented both radially and circumferentially with respect to the summit caldera. A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image acquired 1–2 h before the start of a radial fissure eruption in 2009 captures one of these sills in the midst of its propagation toward the surface. Galápagos eruptive fissures of all orientations have previously been presumed to be fed by vertical dikes, and this assumption has guided models of the origin of the eruptive fissure geometry and overall development of the volcanoes. Our findings allow us to reinterpret the internal structure and evolution of Galápagos volcanoes and of similar basaltic shields. Furthermore, we note that stress changes generated by the emplacement of subhorizontal sills feeding one type of eruption may control the geometry of subsequent eruptive fissures. Specifically, circumferential fissures tend to open within areas uplifted by sill intrusions that initiated previous radial fissure eruptions. This mechanism provides a possible explanation for the pattern of eruptive fissures that characterizes all the western Galápagos volcanoes, as well as the alternation between radial and circumferential fissure eruptions at Fernandina. The same model suggests that the next eruption of Fernandina will be from a circumferential fissure in the area uplifted by the 2009 sill intrusion, just southwest of the caldera rim.

GalÃ¡pagos Islands↗

USGS2010

Shallow magma accumulation at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, revealed by microgravity surveys

Using microgravity data collected at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i (United States), between November 1975 and January 2008, we document significant mass increase beneath the east margin of Halema‘uma‘u Crater, within Kīlauea's summit caldera. Surprisingly, there was no sustained uplift accompanying the mass accumulation. We propose that the positive gravity residual in the absence of significant uplift is indicative of magma accumulation in void space (probably a network of interconnected cracks), which may have been created when magma withdrew from the summit in response to the 29 November 1975 M = 7.2 south flank earthquake. Subsequent refilling documented by gravity represents a gradual recovery from that earthquake. A new eruptive vent opened at the summit of Kīlauea in 2008 within a few hundred meters of the positive gravity residual maximum, probably tapping the reservoir that had been accumulating magma since the 1975 earthquake.

Hawaii↗