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Marci M. Robinson

Publications and source records attributed to Marci M. Robinson.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2015

A global planktic foraminifer census data set for the Pliocene ocean

This article presents data derived by the USGS Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project. PRISM has generated planktic foraminifer census data from core sites and outcrops around the globe since 1988. These data form the basis of a number of paleoceanographic reconstructions focused on the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago). Data are presented as counts of individuals within 64 taxonomic categories for each locality. We describe sample acquisition and processing, age dating, taxonomy and archival storage of material. These data provide a unique, stratigraphically focused opportunity to assess the effects of global warming on marine plankton.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2012

Latitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years

High tropical and low polar biodiversity is one of the most fundamental patterns characterising marine ecosystems, and the influence of temperature on such marine latitudinal diversity gradients is increasingly well documented. However, the temporal stability of quantitative relationships among diversity, latitude and temperature is largely unknown. Herein we document marine zooplankton species diversity patterns at four time slices [modern, Last Glacial Maximum (18 000 years ago), last interglacial (120 000 years ago), and Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago)] and show that, although the diversity-latitude relationship has been dynamic, diversity-temperature relationships are remarkably constant over the past three million years. These results suggest that species diversity is rapidly reorganised as species' ranges respond to temperature change on ecological time scales, and that the ecological impact of future human-induced temperature change may be partly predictable from fossil and paleoclimatological records.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2012

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2011

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS2011

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2011

Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement. In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model. Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2011

Pliocene climate lessons

The middle portion of the Pliocene Epoch—about three million years ago—is the most recent period when global temperatures were sustained at levels comparable to those we may see at the end of this century due to climate change. One way to seek a more accurate view of a warmer Earth is to look closely at that time. Paleoclimate studies of the mid-Pliocene are also emerging as a ground truth for testing the accuracy of computer models used to predict Earth’s future climate.

American Scientist↗
USGS2010

ePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration

As part of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project, we present the ePRISM experiment designed I) to provide climate modelers with a reconstruction of an early Pliocene warm period that was warmer than the PRISM interval (similar to 3.3 to 3.0 Ma), yet still similar in many ways to modern conditions and 2) to provide an example of how best to integrate multiple-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from time series with varying degrees of temporal resolution and age control as we begin to build the next generation of PRISM, the PRISM4 reconstruction, spanning a constricted time interval. While it is possible to tie individual SST estimates to a single light (warm) oxygen isotope event, we find that the warm peak average of SST estimates over a narrowed time interval is preferential for paleoclimate reconstruction as it allows for the inclusion of more records of multiple paleotemperature proxies.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2010

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2009

New quantitative evidence of extreme warmth in the Pliocene Arctic

The most recent geologic interval characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century occurred about 3.3 to 3.0 Ma, during the mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch. Climate reconstructions of this warm period are integral to both understanding past warm climate equilibria and to predicting responses to today's transient climate. The Arctic Ocean is of particular interest because in this region climate proxies are rare, and climate models struggle to predict climate sensitivity and the response of sea ice. In order to provide the first quantitative climate data from this region during this interval, sea surface temperatures (SST) were estimated from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 907 and 909 in the Nordic Seas and from Site 911 in the Arctic Ocean based on Mg/Ca of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin) and alkenone unsaturation indices. Evidence of much warmer than modern conditions in the Arctic Ocean during the mid-Piacenzian with temperatures as high as 18C is presented. In addition, SST anomalies (mid-Piacenzian minus modern) increase with latitude across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic, extending and confirming a reduced mid-Piacenzian pole-to-equator temperature gradient. The agreement between proxies and with previously documented qualitative assessments of intense warming in this region corroborate a poleward transport of heat and an at least seasonally ice-free Arctic, conditions that may serve as a possible analog to future climate if the current rate of Arctic sea-ice reduction continues.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2008

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2008

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO 2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2008

Anatomy of a shoreface sand ridge revisted using foraminifera: False Cape Shoals, Virginia/North Carolina inner shelf

Certain details regarding the origin and evolution of shelf sand ridges remain elusive. Knowledge of their internal stratigraphy and microfossil distribution is necessary to define the origin and to determine the processes that modify sand ridges. Fourteen vibracores from False Cape Shoal A, a well-developed shoreface-attached sand ridge on the Virginia/North Carolina inner continental shelf, were examined to document the internal stratigraphy and benthic foraminiferal assemblages, as well as to reconstruct the depositional environments recorded in down-core sediments. Seven sedimentary and foraminiferal facies correspond to the following stratigraphic units: fossiliferous silt, barren sand, clay to sandy clay, laminated and bioturbated sand, poorly sorted massive sand, fine clean sand, and poorly sorted clay to gravel. The units represent a Pleistocene estuary and shoreface, a Holocene estuary, ebb tidal delta, modern shelf, modern shoreface, and swale fill, respectively. The succession of depositional environments reflects a Pleistocene sea-level highstand and subsequent regression followed by the Holocene transgression in which barrier island/spit systems formed along the Virginia/North Carolina inner shelf not, vert, ~5.2 ka and migrated landward and an ebb tidal delta that was deposited, reworked, and covered by shelf sand.

Virginia;North Carolina↗
USGS2008

Reevaluation of mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Multiproxy temperature estimation requires careful attention to biological, chemical, physical, temporal, and calibration differences of each proxy and paleothermometry method. We evaluated mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from multiple proxies at Deep Sea Drilling Project Holes 552A, 609B, 607, and 606, transecting the North Atlantic Drift. SST estimates derived from faunal assemblages, foraminifer Mg/Ca, and alkenone unsaturation indices showed strong agreement at Holes 552A, 607, and 606 once differences in calibration, depth, and seasonality were addressed. Abundant extinct species and/or an unrecognized productivity signal in the faunal assemblage at Hole 609B resulted in exaggerated faunal-based SST estimates but did not affect alkenone-derived or Mg/Ca–derived estimates. Multiproxy mid-Pliocene North Atlantic SST estimates corroborate previous studies documenting high-latitude mid-Pliocene warmth and refine previous faunal-based estimates affected by environmental factors other than temperature. Multiproxy investigations will aid SST estimation in high-latitude areas sensitive to climate change and currently underrepresented in SST reconstructions.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2006

Benthic foraminifera from a relict flood tidal delta along the Virginia/North Carolina Outer Banks

Examination of benthic foraminifera from six vibracores collected from a relict flood tidal delta near the Virginia/North Carolina border documents the assemblages associated with a former inlet and provides geologic evidence of this former inlet that once defined the boundary between Virginia and North Carolina along the Outer Banks. Three distinct foraminiferal assemblages were identified. The oldest assemblage contained abundant and diverse forms, dominated by Elphidium excavatum and several other calcareous species typical of shallow nearshore areas. Sediment immediately below and above this diverse calcareous assemblage was barren or nearly barren of foraminifera. A medium-salinity agglutinated marsh assemblage characterized mainly by Trochammina inflata with fewer Tiphotrocha comprimata overlies the uppermost barren unit. The core top assemblage was dominated by low-salinity marsh species Jadammina macrescens, Miliammina petila and Miliammina fusca. A comparison of these vertically-stacked assemblages with the modern geographic distribution of assemblages in the Outer Banks estuarine system and on the nearby continental shelf reveals a succession of depositional environments proceeding from estuarine and flood tidal delta to medium salinity marsh to lower salinity marsh. These changes in depositional environments reflect a rapid and dramatic increase in salinity caused by the opening of an inlet followed by a gradual decrease in salinity due to inlet shoaling and eventual marsh colonization of the flood tidal delta. These changes cannot be determined through sedimentological studies alone; micropaleontological analysis is required. We conclude this distinctive trend of changing depositional environments constitutes paleontological evidence of the origin and evolution of Old Currituck Inlet that breached the barrier spit prior to 1585AD, actively built a flood tidal delta for more than 145 years, and then closed in 1731AD allowing the flood tidal delta to become colonized by marsh species.

North Carolina, Virginia↗