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Manuel Nathenson

Publications and source records attributed to Manuel Nathenson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Revised tephra volumes for Cascade Range volcanoes

Isopach maps from tephra eruptions from Mount St. Helens were reported in Carey et al. (1995) and for tephra eruptions from Glacier Peak in Gardner et al. (1998). For exponential thinning, the isopach data only define a single slope on a log thickness versus square root of area plot. Carey et al. (1995) proposed a model that was used to estimate a second slope, and volumes were presented in both studies using this model. A study by Sulpizio (2005) for estimating the second slope and square root of area where the lines intersect involves a systematic analysis of many eruptions to provide correlation equations. The purpose of this paper is to recalculate the volumes of Cascades eruptions and compare results from the two methods. In order to gain some perspective on the methods for estimating the second slope, we use data for thickness versus distance beyond the last isopach that are available for some of the larger eruptions in the Cascades. The thickness versus square root of area method is extended to thickness versus distance by developing an approximate relation between the two assuming elliptical isopachs with the source at one of the foci. Based on the comparisons made between the Carey et al. (1995) and Sulpizio (2005) methods, it is felt that the later method provides a better estimate of the second slope. For Mount St. Helens, the estimates of total volume using the Sulpizio (2005) method are generally smaller than those using the Carey et al. (1995) method. For the volume estimates of Carey et al. (1995), the volume of the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens is smaller than six of the eight previous eruptions. With the new volumes using the Sulpizio (2005) method, the 1980 eruption is smaller in volume than the upper end of the range for only three of the layers (Wn, Ye, and Yn) and is the same size as layer We. Thus the 1980 eruption becomes representative of the mid-range of volumes rather than being in the lower range.

Cascade Range volcanoes↗
USGS2016

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2014

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2013

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2012

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Geologic and geophysical data for wells drilled at Raft River Valley, Cassia County, Idaho, in 1977-1978 and data for wells drilled previously

In order to better define the size of the thermal anomaly in the Raft River Valley, Idaho, the U.S. Geological Survey drilled a series of intermediate-depth (nominal 500-ft depth) wells in 1977 and 1978. This report presents geologic, geophysical, and temperature data for these drill holes, along with data for five wells drilled by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory with U.S. Department of Energy Funding. Data previously reported for other drill holes are also included in order to make them available as digital files. For purposes of defining the thermal anomaly for the geothermal system, temperature gradients are calculated over long depth intervals on the basis of the appearance of reasonable linear segments on a temperature versus plot depth. Temperature versus depth data for some drill holes can be represented by a single gradient, whereas others require multiple gradients to match the data. Data for some drill holes clearly reflect vertical flows of water in the formation surrounding the drill holes, and water velocities are calculated for these drill holes. Within The Narrows area, temperature versus depth data show reversals at different depth in different drill holes. In the main thermal area, temperatures in intermediate-depth drill holes vary approximately linearly but with very high values of temperature gradient. Temperature gradients on a map of the area can be reasonable divided into a large area of regional gradients and smaller areas defining the thermal anomalies.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Popocatépetl Volcano↗
USGS2013

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2011

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Springs, streams, and gas vent on and near Mount Adams volcano, Washington

Springs and some streams on Mount Adams volcano have been sampled for chemistry and light stable isotopes of water. Spring temperatures are generally cooler than air temperatures from weather stations at the same elevation. Spring chemistry generally reflects weathering of volcanic rock from dissolved carbon dioxide. Water in some springs and streams has either dissolved hydrothermal minerals or has reacted with them to add sulfate to the water. Some samples appear to have obtained their sulfate from dissolution of gypsum while some probably involve reaction with sulfide minerals such as pyrite. Light stable isotope data for water from springs follow a local meteoric water line, and the variation of isotopes with elevation indicate that some springs have very local recharge and others have water from elevations a few hundred meters higher. No evidence was found for thermal or slightly thermal springs on Mount Adams. A sample from a seeping gas vent on Mount Adams was at ambient temperature, but the gas is similar to that found on other Cascade volcanoes. Helium isotopes are 4.4 times the value in air, indicating that there is a significant component of mantle helium. The lack of fumaroles on Mount Adams and the ambient temperature of the gas indicates that the gas is from a hydrothermal system that is no longer active.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2010

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Volcano hazards assessment for the Lassen region, northern California

The Lassen region of the southernmost Cascade Range is an active volcanic area. At least 70 eruptions have occurred in the past 100,000 years, including 3 in the past 1,000 years, most recently in 1915. The record of past eruptions and the present state of the underlying magmatic and hydrothermal systems make it clear that future eruptions within the Lassen Volcanic Center are very likely. Although the annual probability of an eruption is small, the consequences of some types of eruptions could be severe. Compared to those of a typical Cascade composite volcano, eruptive vents at Lassen Volcanic Center and the surrounding area are widely dispersed, extending in a zone about 50 km wide from the southern boundary of Lassen Volcanic National Park north to the Pit River. This report presents a discussion of volcanic and other geologic hazards in the Lassen area and delineates hazards zones for different types of volcanic activity. Owing to its presence in a national park with significant visitorship, its explosive behavior, and its proximity to regional infrastructure, the Lassen Volcanic Center has been designated a "high threat volcano" in the U.S. Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity and ground deformation, and the Lassen area has a network of seismometers and Global Positioning System stations in place to monitor for early warning of volcanic activity.

California↗
USGS2012

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10 -4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10 -4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10 -4 , but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km 3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km 3 , the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10 -4 . For erupted volumes ≥10 km 3 , the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving more confidence in the estimate, and we use those data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption in the next year at 1.4x10 -5 .

California↗
USGS2011

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2009

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publications dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2008

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Volcano monitoring

Volcanoes are not randomly distributed over the Earth's surface. Most are concentrated on the edges of continents, along island chains, or beneath the sea where they form long mountain ranges. More than half of the world's active volcanoes above sea level encircle the Pacific Ocean (see Fig. 1 ). The concept of plate tectonics explains the locations of volcanoes and their relationship to other large-scale geologic features. The Earth's surface is made up of a patchwork of about a dozen large plates and a number of smaller ones that move relative to one another at <1 cm to ~10 cm/yr (about the speed at which fingernails grow). These rigid plates, with average thickness of ~80 km, are separating, sliding past each other, or colliding on top of the Earth's hot, viscous interior. Volcanoes tend to form where plates collide or spread apart ( Fig. 2 ) but can also grow in the middle of a plate, like the Hawaiian volcanoes ( Fig. 3 ). Of the more than 1,500 volcanoes worldwide believed to have been active in the past 10,000 years, 169 are in the United States and its territories ( Ewert et al., 2005 ) (see Fig. 4 ). As of spring 2007, two of these volcanoes, Kilauea and Mount St. Helens, are erupting, while several others, including Mauna Loa, Fourpeaked, Korovin, Veniaminof, and Anatahan, exhibit one or more signs of restlessness, such as anomalous earthquakes, deformation of the volcano's surface, or changes in volume and composition.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2007

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2006

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California

In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro West, Inc., had already prepared a document discussing geologic hazards in the area, titled 'Exhibit B Topic Report 6 - Geological Resources' (Fugro West, Inc., 2007); hereafter, this will be called the 'Geological Resources document'. The USGS agreed to evaluate the information in the Geological Resources document regarding (1) proximity of active faults to the proposed project, (2) potential magnitude of seismic events from nearby faults, (3) thoroughness of the assessment of earthquake hazards in general, (4) potential hazards from ground rupture and strong shaking, (5) potential hazards from tsunamis, and (6) other geologic hazards including landslides and debris flows. Because two new earthquake probability reports were scheduled to be released in mid-April, 2008, by the USGS and the California Geological Survey (CGS), the USGS suggested a 6-month review period to enable a thorough incorporation of this new information. Twenty-seven scientists from the USGS and the CGS reviewed various sections of the Geological Resources document. This report outlines our major conclusions. The appendix is a longer list of comments by these reviewers, grouped by section of the Geological Resources document. Before discussing our reviews, we first provide a brief overview of geologic hazards in the proposed site area. This report is a snapshot in time and any future work in the area will need to take into account ongoing research efforts. For example, USGS scientists collected seismic reflection data in the spring of 2008 to study the structure and seismic potential of several faults in the area. Their interpretations (Conrad and others, 2008a and 2008b) are too preliminary to be included in this report, but their final results, along with other researchers' studies in the project area, should be considered in any future work on the Deepwater Port project.

California↗
USGS2007

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2005

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report↗