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M. D. Dettinger

Publications and source records attributed to M. D. Dettinger.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2003

Meteorology and hydrology in Yosemite National Park: A sensor network application

Over half of California's water supply comes from high elevations in the snowmelt-dominated Sierra Nevada. Natural climate fluctuations, global warming, and the growing needs of water consumers demand intelligent management of this water resource. This requires a comprehensive monitoring system across and within the Sierra Nevada. Unfortunately, because of severe terrain and limited access, few measurements exist. Thus, meteorological and hydrologic processes are not well understood at high altitudes. However, new sensor and wireless communication technologies are beginning to provide sensor packages designed for low maintenance operation, low power consumption and unobtrusive footprints. A prototype network of meteorological and hydrological sensors has been deployed in Yosemite National Park, traversing elevation zones from 1,200 to 3,700 m. Communication techniques must be tailored to suit each location, resulting in a hybrid network of radio, cell-phone, land-line, and satellite transmissions. Results are showing how, in some years, snowmelt may occur quite uniformly over the Sierra, while in others it varies with elevation. ?? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003.

Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subse↗
USGS2002

Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal- to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2002

Ice core evidence of rapid air temperature increases since 1960 in alpine areas of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, United States

Site-specific transfer functions relating delta oxygen 18 (δ 18 O) values in snow to the average air temperature ( T A ) during storms on Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG) were used in conjunction with δ 18 O records from UFG ice cores to reconstruct long-term trends in air temperature from alpine areas in the Wind River Range, Wyoming. Transfer functions were determined by using data collected from four seasonal snowpacks (1989–1990, 1997–1998, 1998–1999, and 1999–2000). The timing and amount of each storm was determined from an automated snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) site, 22 km northeast of UFG, and ∼1060 m in elevation below UFG. Statistically significant and positive correlations between δ 18 O values in the snow and T A were consistently found in three of the four seasonal snowpacks. The snowpack with the poor correlation was deposited in 1997–1998 during the 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). An ultrasonic snow-depth sensor installed on UFG provided valuable insights into site-specific storms and postdepositional processes that occur on UFG. The timing of storms recorded at the UFG and Cold Springs SNOTEL sites were similar; however, selected storms did not correlate. Snow from storms occurring after mid-October and followed by high winds was most susceptible to redeposition of snow. This removal of lower temperature snowfall could potentially bias the δ 18 O values preserved in ice core records to environmental conditions reflecting higher air temperatures and lower wind speeds. Transfer functions derived from seasonal snow cover on UFG were used to reconstruct T A values from δ 18 O values determined from two ice cores collected from UFG. Reconstructed air temperatures from the ice core data indicate an increase in T A of ∼3.5°C from the mid-1960s to the early 1990s in the alpine areas of northwestern Wyoming. Reconstructed T A from the ice core records between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), mid-1800s, and the early 1990s indicate a T A increase of ∼5°C. The historically reconstructed T A values from the UFG were significantly higher than the global average observed during the 20th Century but were in agreement with T A increases observed at selected, high-altitude and high-latitude sites in other parts of the world. Additional research is required to determine if part of the observed trend toward heavier δ 18 O values in ice from the UFG since the LIA (and increased T A ) is due to an increased proportion of snowfall from southerly storm tracks and moisture sources, as seems to have been the situation in 1997–1998.

Wyoming↗
USGS2002

Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the Western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate

Snowpack, as measured on 1 April, is the primary source of warm-season streamflow for most of the western United States and thus represents an important source of water supply. An understanding of climate factors that influence the variability of this water supply and thus its predictability is important for water resource management. In this study, principal component analysis is used to identify the primary modes of 1 April snowpack variability in the western United States. Two components account for 61% of the total snowpack variability in the western United States. Relations between these modes of variability and indices of Pacific Ocean climate [e.g., the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Nin??o-3 sea surface temperatures (SSTs)] are examined. The first mode of snowpack variability is closely associated with the PDO, whereas the second mode varies in concert with both the PDO and Nin??o-3 SSTs. Because these atmospheric-oceanic conditions change slowly from season to season, the observed teleconnections between the Pacific Ocean climate and 1 April snowpack may be useful to forecast 1 April snowpack using data that describe the Pacific Ocean climate in the previous summer and autumn seasons, especially for the northwestern United States.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2001

Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States

Fluctuations in spring climate in the western United States over the last 4-5 decades are described by examining changes in the blooming of plants and the timing of snowmelt-runoff pulses. The two measures of spring's onset that are employed are the timing of first bloom of lilac and honeysuckle bushes from a long-term cooperative phonological network, and the timing of the first major pulse of snowmelt recorded from high-elevation streams. Both measures contain year-to-year fluctuations, with typical year-to-year fluctuations at a given site of one to three weeks. These fluctuations are spatially coherent, forming regional patterns that cover most of the west. Fluctuations in lilac first bloom dates are highly correlated to those of honeysuckle, and both are significantly correlated with those of the spring snowmelt pulse. Each of these measures, then, probably respond to a common mechanism. Various analyses indicate that anomalous temperature exerts the greatest influence upon both interannual and secular changes in the onset of spring in these networks. Earlier spring onsets since the late 1970s are a remarkable feature of the records, and reflect the unusual spell of warmer-than-normal springs in western North America during this period. The warm episodes are clearly related to larger-scale atmospheric conditions across North America and the North Pacific, but whether this is predominantly an expression of natural variability or also a symptom of global warming is not certain.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2001

Droughts, epic droughts and droughty centuries - lessons from a California paleoclimatic record: a PACLIM 2001 meeting report

During the early 1990s (but echoing studies by S.T. Harding at the University of California, from as early as the 1930s), several lines of paleoclimate evidence in and around the Sierra Nevada Range have provided the water community in California with some real horror stories. By studying ancient tree stumps submerged in Lake Tahoe and Tenaya Lake, stumps that were emerging from Mono Lake during its recent decline, and stumps that were exhumed in the Walker River bed during the floods of 1997, paleoclimatologists like Scott Stine of California State University, Hayward, assembled a picture of epic droughts in the central Sierra Nevada during the medieval period. These droughts had to be severe to drop water levels in the lakes and rivers low enough for the trees to grow in the first place, and then had to last for hundreds of years to explain tree-ring counts in these sizeable stumps. Worse yet, the evidence suggested at least two such epic droughts, one ending close to 1100 and the other close to 1350. These epic droughts challenged paleoclimatologists, as well as modern climatologists and hydrologists, to understand and, ultimately, to determine the likelihood that such droughts might recur in the foreseeable future. The first challenge, however, was to verify that such droughts were more than local events and as extreme as suggested. At this year’s Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, held March 18–21, 2001, at Asilomar (Pacific Grove, Calif.), special sessions brought together scientists to compare paleoclimatic reconstructions of ancient droughts and pluvial (wet) epidodes to try to determine the nature of decadal and centennial climate fluctuations in western North America, with emphasis on California. A companion session brought together modern climatologists to report on the latest explanations (and evidence) for decadal climate variations during the instrumental era of the 20th century.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗
USGS2001

Droughts, epic droughts and droughty centuries - lessons from a California paleoclimatic record: a PACLIM 2001 meeting report

During the early 1990s (but echoing studies by S.T. Harding at the University of California, from as early as the 1930s), several lines of paleoclimate evidence in and around the Sierra Nevada Range have provided the water community in California with some real horror stories. By studying ancient tree stumps submerged in Lake Tahoe and Tenaya Lake, stumps that were emerging from Mono Lake during its recent decline, and stumps that were exhumed in the Walker River bed during the floods of 1997, paleoclimatologists like Scott Stine of California State University, Hayward, assembled a picture of epic droughts in the central Sierra Nevada during the medieval period. These droughts had to be severe to drop water levels in the lakes and rivers low enough for the trees to grow in the first place, and then had to last for hundreds of years to explain tree-ring counts in these sizeable stumps. Worse yet, the evidence suggested at least two such epic droughts, one ending close to 1100 and the other close to 1350. These epic droughts challenged paleoclimatologists, as well as modern climatologists and hydrologists, to understand and, ultimately, to determine the likelihood that such droughts might recur in the foreseeable future. The first challenge, however, was to verify that such droughts were more than local events and as extreme as suggested. At this year’s Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, held March 18–21, 2001, at Asilomar (Pacific Grove, Calif.), special sessions brought together scientists to compare paleoclimatic reconstructions of ancient droughts and pluvial (wet) epidodes to try to determine the nature of decadal and centennial climate fluctuations in western North America, with emphasis on California. A companion session brought together modern climatologists to report on the latest explanations (and evidence) for decadal climate variations during the instrumental era of the 20th century. PACLIM is an annual workshop that, since 1983, has brought together specialists from diverse fields, including physical, social, and biological sciences, to discuss and investigate climate and climate effects in the eastern Pacific and western America. This year’s PACLIM was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, NOAA Office of Global Programs, California Department of Water Resources, and, for the first time, the CALFED Science Program. In addition to the presentations summarized here, sessions at this year’s PACLIM covered topics as varied as the North American monsoon system; recent economic and political effects of California’s climate variations, including a presentation on climate and CALFED by Sam Luoma (U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park); and research into daily-to-seasonal weather variations.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗
USGS2000

Global characteristics of stream flow seasonality and variability

Monthly stream flow series from 1345 sites around the world are used to characterize geographic differences in the seasonality and year-to-year variability of stream flow. Stream flow seasonality varies regionally, depending on the timing of maximum precipitation, evapotranspiration, and contributions from snow and ice. Lags between peaks of precipitation and stream flow vary smoothly from long delays in high-latitude and mountainous regions to short delays in the warmest sectors. Stream flow is most variable from year to year in dry regions of the southwest United States and Mexico, the Sahel, and southern continents, and it varies more (relatively) than precipitation in the same regions. Tropical rivers have the steadiest flows. El Niño variations are correlated with stream flow in many parts of the Americas, Europe, and Australia. Many stream flow series from North America, Europe, and the Tropics reflect North Pacific climate, whereas series from the eastern United States, Europe, and tropical South America and Africa reflect North Atlantic climate variations.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2000

A hybrid orographic plus statistical model for downscaling daily precipitation in northern California

A hybrid (physical–statistical) scheme is developed to resolve the finescale distribution of daily precipitation over complex terrain. The scheme generates precipitation by combining information from the upper-air conditions and from sparsely distributed station measurements; thus, it proceeds in two steps. First, an initial estimate of the precipitation is made using a simplified orographic precipitation model. It is a steady-state, multilayer, and two-dimensional model following the concepts of Rhea. The model is driven by the 2.5° × 2.5° gridded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Centers for Environmental Prediction upper-air profiles, and its parameters are tuned using the observed precipitation structure of the region. Precipitation is generated assuming a forced lifting of the air parcels as they cross the mountain barrier following a straight trajectory. Second, the precipitation is adjusted using errors between derived precipitation and observations from nearby sites. The study area covers the northern half of California, including coastal mountains, central valley, and the Sierra Nevada. The model is run for a 5-km rendition of terrain for days of January–March over the period of 1988–95. A jackknife analysis demonstrates the validity of the approach. The spatial and temporal distributions of the simulated precipitation field agree well with the observed precipitation. Further, a mapping of model performance indices (correlation coefficients, model bias, root-mean-square error, and threat scores) from an array of stations from the region indicates that the model performs satisfactorily in resolving daily precipitation at 5-km resolution.

California↗
USGS2000

Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status

An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗
USGS1999

Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States

Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS1999

The spring runoff pulse from the Sierra Nevada

Just about every year there is one major first pulse of snowmelt runoff (streamflow) that marks the transition from winter to spring in high elevation, snowmelt driven watersheds in the western United States. As a index, we have used the record of relatively pristine streamflow at the Merced River, Happy Isles in Yosemite National Park to identify this transition for each year beginning in 1916. Two factors are prominent in determining the timing of the spring runnoff pulse: (1) it is delayed with greater seasonal accumulation of snow pack in the Yosemite region, and (2) the runoff pulse is triggered by a regional weather fluctuation that establishes a warm high pressure ridge over the California region during the spring (mid-March to Mid-May) period. Thus, the pulse involves both seasonal climate variability vis a vis the character of winter/spring water delivery to the western mountains and synoptic conditions associated with abrupt spring warming. Inspection of an extensive array of stream gage records over the western states finds that a simultaneous pulse occurs over a broad collection of high-elevation streams in the region. In this paper, we explore the predictability of the onset of these spring regional warmings, which often are marked by development of high pressure ridge over much of the western United States

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Global to local scale simulations of streamflow in the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers, Sierra Nevada, California

Atmospheric moisture transport and moisture budgets during winter (December-April) simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) are examined and used to simulate streamflow variations in the Sierra Nevada. The RSM was nested in 2"-latitude x 2"-longitude NCEPreanalyzed atmospheric-data fields (as a surrogate for a perfect forecast system operating at the global scale). Precipitation, temperature, and solar insolation simulated by the RSM on a 50-km grid were inputted directly to precipitation-runoff models of the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers in an evaluation of the potential for end-to-end forecasting of streamflow and snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada, near 39"N 120"W. Over the western United States, the RSM captures both patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (e.g., Fig. I illustrates observed and simulated precipitation for winter 1982-83). The RSM has dry biases in the Southeast and over the Gulf of Mexico, but it captures interannual and intraseasonal variations well. During most El Nifios, it simulates a precipitation dipole over the western states with wetter-than-normal conditions in California and drier-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is relatively dry and the southern states are wet, as in observations. The RSM did equally well during La Niiia winters.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗