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M. C. Larsen

Publications and source records attributed to M. C. Larsen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

A rainfall intensity-duration threshold for landslides in a humid- tropical environment, Puerto Rico

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as I = 91.46 D -0.82 where I is rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour, and D is duration in hours. Landslide-producing storms occurred at an average rate of 1.2 per year. In general the landslides triggered by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events were mainly shallow soil slips and debris flows, while the long-duration, low-intensity rainfall produced larger, deeper debris avalanches and slumps. For storms that had durations of up to 10 h, landsliding did not occur until rainfall intensity was as much as three times as high as the rainfall intensity reported as sufficient to trigger landsliding in temperate regions. As storm durations approach 100 h, the rainfall conditions necessary to initiate landsliding in Puerto Rico converge with those defined for temperate regions. A comparison of the Puerto Rico threshold with rainfall data from other humid-tropical regions suggests that the threshold developed for Puerto Rico may be applicable to other similar environments throughout the world.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2013

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.]

Physical Geography↗
USGS2009

Potential effects of runoff, fluvial sediment, and nutrient discharges on the coral reefs of Puerto Rico

Coral reefs, the foundation and primary structure of many highly productive and diverse tropical marine ecosystems, have been degraded by human activity in much of the earth's tropical oceans. To contribute to improved understanding of this problem, the potential relation between river sediment and nutrient discharges and degradation of coral reefs surrounding Puerto Rico was studied using streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water-quality data. Mean annual runoff for the 8711 km2 island is 911 mm, about 57% of mean annual precipitation (1600 mm). Mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from Puerto Rico to coastal waters is estimated at 2.7-9.0 million metric tonnes. Storm runoff transports a substantial part of sediment: the highest recorded daily sediment discharge is 1-3.6 times the mean annual sediment discharge. Hurricane Georges (1998) distributed an average of 300 mm of rain across the island, equivalent to a volume of about 2.6 billion m3. Runoff of more than 1.0 billion m3 of water and as much as 5 to 10 million metric tonnes of sediment were discharged to the coast and shelf. Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations in river waters are as much as 10 times the estimated presettlement levels. Fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus concentrations in many Puerto Rico rivers are near or above regulatory limits. Unlike sediment discharges, which are predominantly episodic and intense, river-borne nutrient and fecal discharge is a less-intense but chronic stressor to coral reefs found near the mouths of rivers. Negative effects of riverderived sediment and nutrient discharge on coral reefs are especially pronounced on the north, southwest, and west coasts.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2008

Rainfall-triggered landslides, anthropogenic hazards, and mitigation strategies

Rainfall-triggered landslides are part of a natural process of hillslope erosion that can result in catastrophic loss of life and extensive property damage in mountainous, densely populated areas. As global population expansion on or near steep hillslopes continues, the human and economic costs associated with landslides will increase. Landslide hazard mitigation strategies generally involve hazard assessment mapping, warning systems, control structures, and regional landslide planning and policy development. To be sustainable, hazard mitigation requires that management of natural resources is closely connected to local economic and social interests. A successful strategy is dependent on a combination of multi-disciplinary scientific and engineering approaches, and the political will to take action at the local community to national scale.

Advances in Geosciences↗
USGS2006

Water and solute mass balance of five small, relatively undisturbed watersheds in the U.S.

Geochemical mass balances were computed for water years 1992-1997 (October 1991 through September 1997) for the five watersheds of the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) Program to determine the primary regional controls on yields of the major dissolved inorganic solutes. The sites, which vary markedly with respect to climate, geology, physiography, and ecology, are: Allequash Creek, Wisconsin (low-relief, humid continental forest); Andrews Creek, Colorado (cold alpine, taiga/tundra, and subalpine boreal forest); Ri??o Icacos, Puerto Rico (lower montane, wet tropical forest); Panola Mountain, Georgia (humid subtropical piedmont forest); and Sleepers River, Vermont (humid northern hardwood forest). Streamwater output fluxes were determined by constructing empirical multivariate concentration models including discharge and seasonal components. Input fluxes were computed from weekly wet-only or bulk precipitation sampling. Despite uncertainties in input fluxes arising from poorly defined elevation gradients, lack of dry-deposition and occult-deposition measurements, and uncertain sea-salt contributions, the following was concluded: (1) for solutes derived primarily from rock weathering (Ca, Mg, Na, K, and H4SiO4), net fluxes (outputs in streamflow minus inputs in deposition) varied by two orders of magnitude, which is attributed to a large gradient in rock weathering rates controlled by climate and geologic parent material; (2) the net flux of atmospherically derived solutes (NH4, NO3, SO4, and Cl) was similar among sites, with SO4 being the most variable and NH4 and NO3 generally retained (except for NO 3 at Andrews); and (3) relations among monthly solute fluxes and differences among solute concentration model parameters yielded additional insights into comparative biogeochemical processes at the sites. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2006

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows and flash floods, northern Venezuela, 1999

A rare, high-magnitude storm in northern Venezuela in December 1999 triggered debris flows and flash floods, and caused one of the worst natural disasters in the recorded history of the Americas. Some 15,000 people were killed. The debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities on alluvial fans at the mouths of a coastal mountain drainage network and destroyed property estimated at more than $2 billion. Landslides were abundant and widespread on steep slopes within areas underlain by schist and gneiss from near the coast to slightly over the crest of the mountain range. Some hillsides were entirely denuded by single or coalescing failures, which formed massive debris flows in river channels flowing out onto densely populated alluvial fans at the coast. The massive amount of sediment derived from 24 watersheds along 50 km of the coast during the storm and deposited on alluvial fans and beaches has been estimated at 15 to 20 million m3. Sediment yield for the 1999 storm from the approximately 200 km2 drainage area of watersheds upstream of the alluvial fans was as much as 100,000 m3/km2. Rapid economic development in this dynamic geomorphic environment close to the capital city of Caracas, in combination with a severe rain storm, resulted in the death of approximately 5% of the population (300,000 total prior to the storm) in the northern Venezuelan state of Vargas. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, Supplementband↗
USGS2005

The hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the US Geological Survey (USGS), as well as other government agencies and academic institutions convened in San Juan, Puerto Rico, at a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The purpose of the HFLC is to develop and integrate the multidisciplinary tools needed to issue regional guidance products for floods and landslide associated with major tropical rain systems with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can notify vulnerable populations and protect infrastructure. The workshop sought to initiate discussion among these agencies about their highly complementary capabilities, and to establish a framework to leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed, it could be adapted for use in regions that have a high frequency of tropical disturbances.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2005

Rainfall-induced landslides in Puerto Rico: An overview

Rainfall-induced landslides are common in Puerto Rico (PR). The presence of steep slopes in mountainous terrain, coupled with weathered soils and intense rainfall, leads to severe slope-stability problems throughout the island. Episodic triggering events such as hurricanes and earthquakes further exacerbate these problems. All physiographic provinces of the island have experienced landslides. The stability of natural and man-made slopes is a serious concern for government authorities and the civil engineering community in Puerto Rico. This paper presents an overview of the rainfall induced landslide problem in PR, a summary of literature published on this subject, and proposes a rainfall intensity landslide threshold based on landslide events data from 1959 to 2003. This threshold can be used as part of a potential landslide warning system.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2001

Debris-flow and flooding hazards associated with the December 1999 storm in coastal Venezuela and strategies for mitigation

Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14-16, 1999 triggered thousands of landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela. In addition to landslides, heavy rainfall caused flooding and massive debris flows that damaged coastal communities in the State of Vargas along the Caribbean Sea. Examination of the rainfall pattern obtained from the GOES-8 satellite showed that the pattern of damage was generally consistent with the area of heaviest rainfall. Field observations of the severely affected drainage basins and historical records indicate that previous flooding and massive debris-flow events of similar magnitude to that of December 1999 have occurred throughout this region. The volume of debris-flow deposits and the large boulders that the flows transported qualifies the 1999 event amongst the largest historical rainfall-induced debris flows documented worldwide.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1999

Slopewash, surface runoff and fine-litter transport in forest and landslide scars in humid-tropical steeplands, Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport at humid-tropical steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (18??20' N, 65??45' W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone in subtropical rain (tabonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower montane wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (24??to 43??) was only 0.2 to 0.5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m-2 a-1) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9 g m-2 a-1. Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 g m-2 on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m-2 a-1 by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m-2 and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2.5 g m-2 on the two landslide scars.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS1998

Determination of predevelopment denudation rates of an agricultural watershed (Cayaguas River, Puerto Rico) using in-situ-produced 10Be in river-borne quartz

Accurate estimates of watershed denudation absent anthropogenic effects are required to develop strategies for mitigating accelerated physical erosion resulting from human activities, to model global geochemical cycles, and to examine interactions among climate, weathering, and uplift. We present a simple approach to estimate predevelopment denudation rates using in-situ-produced cosmogenic 10Be in fluvial sediments. Denudation processes in an agricultural watershed (Cayaguas River Basin, Puerto Rico) and a matched undisturbed watershed (Icacos River Basin) were compared using 10Be concentrations in quartz for various size fractions of bed material. The coarse fractions in both watersheds bear the imprint of long subsurface residence times. Fine material from old shallow soils contributes little, however, to the present-day sediment output of the Cayaguas. This confirms the recent and presumably anthropogenic origin of the modern high denudation rate in the Cayaguas Basin and suggests that pre-agricultural erosional conditions were comparable to those of the present-day Icacos.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS1998

The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

Landslides are common in sttep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and coccasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km2 and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20 000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented-rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12?? in gradient, and greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. this approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple,. and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings.

Geomorphology↗
USGS1997

How wide is a road? The association of roads and mass-wasting in a forested montane environment

A spatial data base of 1609 landslides was analysed using a geographic information system to determine landslide frequency in relation to highways. A 126 km long transportation network in a 201km2 area of humid-tropical, mountainous, forested terrain in Puerto Rico was used in conjunction with a series of 20 buffer (disturbance) zones varying from 5 to 400m in length, measured perpendicular to the highways. Average landslide frequency in the study area at distances greater than 85m from roads was about six landslides per square kilometre. At distances of 85m or less on either side of a highway, landslide frequency was about 30 landslides per square kilometre. On average, this elevated disturbance rate affected 330m2km-2a-1 within the 170m swath. The mass-wasting rate outside of the disturbance zone affected 40m2km-2 a-1. These results indicate that the rate of mass-wasting disturbance is increased from five to eight times in a 170m wide swath along road corridors. The lateral extent of the environmental impact of roads in the study area is greater than is commonly perceived. The approach described herein demonstrates a simple method to assess the spatial association of mass-wasting with highways. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS1997

Predicting landslide vegetation in patches on landscape gradients in Puerto Rico

We explored the predictive value of common landscape characteristics for landslide vegetative stages in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico using four different analyses. Maximum likelihood logistic regression showed that aspect, age, and substrate type could be used to predict vegetative structural stage. In addition it showed that the structural complexity of the vegetation was greater in landslides (1) facing the southeast (away from the dominant wind direction of recent hurricanes), (2) that were older, and (3) that had volcaniclastic rather than dioritic substrate. Multiple regression indicated that both elevation and age could be used to predict the current vegetation, and that vegetation complexity was greater both at lower elevation and in older landslides. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients showed that (1) the presence of volcaniclastic substrate in landslides was negatively correlated with aspect, age, and elevation, (2) that road association and age were positively correlated, and (3) that slope was negatively correlated with area. Finally, principal components analysis showed that landslides were differentiated on axes defined primarily by age, aspect class, and elevation in the positive direction, and by volcaniclastic substrate in the negative direction. Because several statistical techniques indicated that age, aspect, elevation, and substrate were important in determining vegetation complexity on landslides, we conclude that landslide succession is influenced by variation in these landscape traits. In particular, we would expect to find more successional development on landslides which are older, face away from hurricane winds, are at lower elevation, and are on volcaniclastic substrate. Finally, our results lead into a hierarchical conceptual model of succession on landscapes where the biota respond first to either gradients or disturbance depending on their relative severity, and then to more local biotic mechanisms such as dispersal, predation and competition.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS1996

Geographic relations of landslide distribution and assessment of landslide hazards in the Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo basins, Puerto Rico

Landslide occurrence is common in mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high and hillslopes are steep. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Landslide maps developed from 1:20,000 scale aerial photographs in combination with a computerized geographic information system were used to evaluate the landslide potential in the Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo Basins of Puerto Rico. These basins, ranging in surface area from 276 to 350 square kilometers, are described in this report. The basins represent a broad range of the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that occur in Puerto Rico. In addition, a variety of landslide types were documented. Rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. The most important temporal control on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico is storm rainfall. Forty-one storms triggered widespread landsliding about 1 to 2 times per year during the last three decades. These storms were frequently of 1 to 2 days duration in which, on average, several hundred millimeters of rainfall triggered tens to hundreds of landslides in the central mountains. Most of these storms were tropical disturbances that occurred during the hurricane season of June through November. Land use and the topographic characteristics of hillslope angle, elevation, and aspect are the most important spatial controls governing landslide frequency. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12 degrees in gradient and about 350 meters in elevation, and face the east-northeast are most prone to landsliding. Bedrock geology and soil order seem less important in the determination of landslide frequency, at least when considered at a generalized level. A rainfall accumulation-duration relation for the triggering of numerous landslides throughout the central mountains, and a set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three river basins were developed and are described in this report. These two elements provide a basis for the estimation of the temporal and spatial controls on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico. Finally, this approach is an example of a relatively inexpensive technique for landslide hazard analysis that may be applicable to other settings.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1990

The role of soil processes in determining mechanisms of slope failure and hillslope development in a humid-tropical forest eastern Puerto Rico

Translational failures, with associated downslope earthflow components and shallow slides, appear to be the primary mechanism of hillslope denudation in the humid tropical forests of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. In-situ weathering of quartz diorite and marine-deposited volcaniclastics produces residual soil (saprolite; up to 21 m deep) / weathered rock profiles. Discontinuous zones of contrasting density and permeability particularly in quartz-diorite slopes at 0.5 m, and between 3 and 7 m, create both pathways and impedances for water that can result in excess pore pressures and, ultimately, aid in determining the location of failure planes and magnitudes of slope failures. In combination with relict fractures which create planes of weakness within the saprolite, and the potential significance of tensile stresses in the upper zone of saprolite (hypothesized to be caused by subsurface soil creep), shear failure can then occur during or after periods of heavy rainfall. Results of in-situ shear-strength testing show negative y-intercepts on the derived Mohr-Coulomb failure envelopes (approximately 50% of all tests) that are interpreted as apparent tensile stresses. Observation of tension cracks 1-2 m deep support the test data. Subsurface soil creep can cause extension of the soil and the development of tensile stresses along upper-slope segments. Shear-strength data support this hypothesis for both geologic types. Apparent values of maximum and mean tensile stress are greatest along upper slopes (16.5 and 6.29 kPa). Previously documented maximum rates of downslope movement coincided with local minima of shear strength, and the shear-strength minimum for all tests was located near 0.5 m below land surface, the shallow zone of contrasting permeabilities. These results indicate that subsurface soil creep, a slow semi-continuous process, may exert a profound influence on rapid, shallow slope failures in saprolitic soils. Data indicate that cove slopes in quartz diorite tend to be the most unstable when saturation levels reach 75%. Deep failures (7 m deep) appear the most critical but not the most frequent because pore pressure build-up will occur more rapidly in the upper perched zone of translocated clays before reaching the lower zone between 3 and 7 m. Frequent shallow failures could reduce the probability of deeper failures by removing overburden and reducing shear stress at depth. Deep failures are more likely to result from storm events of great duration and intensity. Sixty-six 'naturally occurring' and more than 100 'road-related' landslides were mapped. Forest elevations exceed 1000 m, but the majority of these failures were found between 600 and 800 m in elevation. This appears to be the area where there is sufficient concentration of subsurface water to result in excess pore pressures. The high percentage of slope failures in the 600-800-m range, relative to the percentage at higher elevations, suggests that differences in soil-water processes are responsible for the form of these mountain slopes. Steep linear segments are maintained at higher elevations. Slope angles are reduced in the 600-800-m range by frequent shallow slides, creating a largely concave surface. In combination, slope segments above 800 m, and those between 600 and 800 m, produce the characteristic form of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. ?? 1990.

Geomorphology↗