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M. C. Larsen

Publications and source records attributed to M. C. Larsen.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.]

Physical Geography

Rainfall-triggered landslides, anthropogenic hazards, and mitigation strategies

Rainfall-triggered landslides are part of a natural process of hillslope erosion that can result in catastrophic loss of life and extensive property damage in mountainous, densely populated areas. As global population expansion on or near steep hillslopes continues, the human and economic costs associated with landslides will increase. Landslide hazard mitigation strategies generally involve hazard assessment mapping, warning systems, control structures, and regional landslide planning and policy development. To be sustainable, hazard mitigation requires that management of natural resources is closely connected to local economic and social interests. A successful strategy is dependent on a combination of multi-disciplinary scientific and engineering approaches, and the political will to take action at the local community to national scale.

Advances in Geosciences

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows and flash floods, northern Venezuela, 1999

A rare, high-magnitude storm in northern Venezuela in December 1999 triggered debris flows and flash floods, and caused one of the worst natural disasters in the recorded history of the Americas. Some 15,000 people were killed. The debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities on alluvial fans at the mouths of a coastal mountain drainage network and destroyed property estimated at more than $2 billion. Landslides were abundant and widespread on steep slopes within areas underlain by schist and gneiss from near the coast to slightly over the crest of the mountain range. Some hillsides were entirely denuded by single or coalescing failures, which formed massive debris flows in river channels flowing out onto densely populated alluvial fans at the coast. The massive amount of sediment derived from 24 watersheds along 50 km of the coast during the storm and deposited on alluvial fans and beaches has been estimated at 15 to 20 million m3. Sediment yield for the 1999 storm from the approximately 200 km2 drainage area of watersheds upstream of the alluvial fans was as much as 100,000 m3/km2. Rapid economic development in this dynamic geomorphic environment close to the capital city of Caracas, in combination with a severe rain storm, resulted in the death of approximately 5% of the population (300,000 total prior to the storm) in the northern Venezuelan state of Vargas. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, Supplementband

The hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the US Geological Survey (USGS), as well as other government agencies and academic institutions convened in San Juan, Puerto Rico, at a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The purpose of the HFLC is to develop and integrate the multidisciplinary tools needed to issue regional guidance products for floods and landslide associated with major tropical rain systems with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can notify vulnerable populations and protect infrastructure. The workshop sought to initiate discussion among these agencies about their highly complementary capabilities, and to establish a framework to leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed, it could be adapted for use in regions that have a high frequency of tropical disturbances.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Rainfall-induced landslides in Puerto Rico: An overview

Rainfall-induced landslides are common in Puerto Rico (PR). The presence of steep slopes in mountainous terrain, coupled with weathered soils and intense rainfall, leads to severe slope-stability problems throughout the island. Episodic triggering events such as hurricanes and earthquakes further exacerbate these problems. All physiographic provinces of the island have experienced landslides. The stability of natural and man-made slopes is a serious concern for government authorities and the civil engineering community in Puerto Rico. This paper presents an overview of the rainfall induced landslide problem in PR, a summary of literature published on this subject, and proposes a rainfall intensity landslide threshold based on landslide events data from 1959 to 2003. This threshold can be used as part of a potential landslide warning system.

Conference Paper

Debris-flow and flooding hazards associated with the December 1999 storm in coastal Venezuela and strategies for mitigation

Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14-16, 1999 triggered thousands of landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela. In addition to landslides, heavy rainfall caused flooding and massive debris flows that damaged coastal communities in the State of Vargas along the Caribbean Sea. Examination of the rainfall pattern obtained from the GOES-8 satellite showed that the pattern of damage was generally consistent with the area of heaviest rainfall. Field observations of the severely affected drainage basins and historical records indicate that previous flooding and massive debris-flow events of similar magnitude to that of December 1999 have occurred throughout this region. The volume of debris-flow deposits and the large boulders that the flows transported qualifies the 1999 event amongst the largest historical rainfall-induced debris flows documented worldwide.

Open-File Report

Slopewash, surface runoff and fine-litter transport in forest and landslide scars in humid-tropical steeplands, Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport at humid-tropical steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (18??20' N, 65??45' W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone in subtropical rain (tabonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower montane wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (24??to 43??) was only 0.2 to 0.5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m-2 a-1) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9 g m-2 a-1. Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 g m-2 on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m-2 a-1 by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m-2 and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2.5 g m-2 on the two landslide scars.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

Geographic relations of landslide distribution and assessment of landslide hazards in the Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo basins, Puerto Rico

Landslide occurrence is common in mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high and hillslopes are steep. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Landslide maps developed from 1:20,000 scale aerial photographs in combination with a computerized geographic information system were used to evaluate the landslide potential in the Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo Basins of Puerto Rico. These basins, ranging in surface area from 276 to 350 square kilometers, are described in this report. The basins represent a broad range of the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that occur in Puerto Rico. In addition, a variety of landslide types were documented. Rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. The most important temporal control on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico is storm rainfall. Forty-one storms triggered widespread landsliding about 1 to 2 times per year during the last three decades. These storms were frequently of 1 to 2 days duration in which, on average, several hundred millimeters of rainfall triggered tens to hundreds of landslides in the central mountains. Most of these storms were tropical disturbances that occurred during the hurricane season of June through November. Land use and the topographic characteristics of hillslope angle, elevation, and aspect are the most important spatial controls governing landslide frequency. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12 degrees in gradient and about 350 meters in elevation, and face the east-northeast are most prone to landsliding. Bedrock geology and soil order seem less important in the determination of landslide frequency, at least when considered at a generalized level. A rainfall accumulation-duration relation for the triggering of numerous landslides throughout the central mountains, and a set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three river basins were developed and are described in this report. These two elements provide a basis for the estimation of the temporal and spatial controls on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico. Finally, this approach is an example of a relatively inexpensive technique for landslide hazard analysis that may be applicable to other settings.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

The role of soil processes in determining mechanisms of slope failure and hillslope development in a humid-tropical forest eastern Puerto Rico

Translational failures, with associated downslope earthflow components and shallow slides, appear to be the primary mechanism of hillslope denudation in the humid tropical forests of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. In-situ weathering of quartz diorite and marine-deposited volcaniclastics produces residual soil (saprolite; up to 21 m deep) / weathered rock profiles. Discontinuous zones of contrasting density and permeability particularly in quartz-diorite slopes at 0.5 m, and between 3 and 7 m, create both pathways and impedances for water that can result in excess pore pressures and, ultimately, aid in determining the location of failure planes and magnitudes of slope failures. In combination with relict fractures which create planes of weakness within the saprolite, and the potential significance of tensile stresses in the upper zone of saprolite (hypothesized to be caused by subsurface soil creep), shear failure can then occur during or after periods of heavy rainfall. Results of in-situ shear-strength testing show negative y-intercepts on the derived Mohr-Coulomb failure envelopes (approximately 50% of all tests) that are interpreted as apparent tensile stresses. Observation of tension cracks 1-2 m deep support the test data. Subsurface soil creep can cause extension of the soil and the development of tensile stresses along upper-slope segments. Shear-strength data support this hypothesis for both geologic types. Apparent values of maximum and mean tensile stress are greatest along upper slopes (16.5 and 6.29 kPa). Previously documented maximum rates of downslope movement coincided with local minima of shear strength, and the shear-strength minimum for all tests was located near 0.5 m below land surface, the shallow zone of contrasting permeabilities. These results indicate that subsurface soil creep, a slow semi-continuous process, may exert a profound influence on rapid, shallow slope failures in saprolitic soils. Data indicate that cove slopes in quartz diorite tend to be the most unstable when saturation levels reach 75%. Deep failures (7 m deep) appear the most critical but not the most frequent because pore pressure build-up will occur more rapidly in the upper perched zone of translocated clays before reaching the lower zone between 3 and 7 m. Frequent shallow failures could reduce the probability of deeper failures by removing overburden and reducing shear stress at depth. Deep failures are more likely to result from storm events of great duration and intensity. Sixty-six 'naturally occurring' and more than 100 'road-related' landslides were mapped. Forest elevations exceed 1000 m, but the majority of these failures were found between 600 and 800 m in elevation. This appears to be the area where there is sufficient concentration of subsurface water to result in excess pore pressures. The high percentage of slope failures in the 600-800-m range, relative to the percentage at higher elevations, suggests that differences in soil-water processes are responsible for the form of these mountain slopes. Steep linear segments are maintained at higher elevations. Slope angles are reduced in the 600-800-m range by frequent shallow slides, creating a largely concave surface. In combination, slope segments above 800 m, and those between 600 and 800 m, produce the characteristic form of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. ?? 1990.

Geomorphology

Geologic implications and potential hazards of scour depressions on bering shelf, Alaska

Flat-bottomed depression 50-150 m in diameter and 60-80 cm deep occur in the floor of Norton Sound, Bering Sea. These large erosional bedforms and associated current ripples are found in areas where sediment grain size is 0.063-0.044 mm (4-4.5 ??), speeds of bottom currents are greatest (20-30 cm/s mean speeds under nonstorm conditions, 70 cm/s during typical storms), circulation of water is constricted by major topographic shoals (kilometers in scale), and small-scale topographic disruptions, such as ice gouges, occur locally on slopes of shoals. These local obstructions on shoals appear to disrupt currents, causing separation of flow and generating eddies that produce large-scale scour. Offshore artificial structures also may disrupt bottom currents in these same areas and have the potential to generate turbulence and induce extensive scour in the area of disrupted flow. The size and character of natural scour depressions in areas of ice gouging suggest that large-scale regions of scour may develop from enlargement of local scour sites around pilings, platforms, or pipelines. Consequently, loss of substrate support for pipelines and gravity structures is possible during frequent autumn storms. ?? 1979 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology