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M. C. Hill

Publications and source records attributed to M. C. Hill.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2005

A comparison of solute-transport solution techniques and their effect on sensitivity analysis and inverse modeling results

Five common numerical techniques for solving the advection-dispersion equation (finite difference, predictor corrector, total variation diminishing, method of characteristics, and modified method of characteristics) were tested using simulations of a controlled conservative tracer-test experiment through a heterogeneous, two-dimensional sand tank. The experimental facility was constructed using discrete, randomly distributed, homogeneous blocks of five sand types. This experimental model provides an opportunity to compare the solution techniques: the heterogeneous hydraulic-conductivity distribution of known structure can be accurately represented by a numerical model, and detailed measurements can be compared with simulated concentrations and total flow through the tank. The present work uses this opportunity to investigate how three common types of results - simulated breakthrough curves, sensitivity analysis, and calibrated parameter values - change in this heterogeneous situation given the different methods of simulating solute transport. The breakthrough curves show that simulated peak concentrations, even at very fine grid spacings, varied between the techniques because of different amounts of numerical dispersion. Sensitivity-analysis results revealed: (1) a high correlation between hydraulic conductivity and porosity given the concentration and flow observations used, so that both could not be estimated; and (2) that the breakthrough curve data did not provide enough information to estimate individual values of dispersivity for the five sands. This study demonstrates that the choice of assigned dispersivity and the amount of numerical dispersion present in the solution technique influence estimated hydraulic conductivity values to a surprising degree.

Ground Water↗
USGS2005

Two-dimensional advective transport in ground-water flow parameter estimation

Nonlinear regression is useful in ground-water flow parameter estimation, but problems of parameter insensitivity and correlation often exist given commonly available hydraulic-head and head-dependent flow (for example, stream and lake gain or loss) observations. To address this problem, advective-transport observations are added to the ground-water flow, parameter-estimation model MODFLOWP using particle-tracking methods. The resulting model is used to investigate the importance of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Otis Air Force Base, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. The analysis procedure for evaluating the probable effect of new observations on the regression results consists of two steps: (1) parameter sensitivities and correlations calculated at initial parameter values are used to assess the model parameterization and expected relative contributions of different types of observations to the regression; and (2) optimal parameter values are estimated by nonlinear regression and evaluated. In the Cape Cod parameter-estimation model, advective-transport observations did not significantly increase the overall parameter sensitivity; however: (1) inclusion of advective-transport observations decreased parameter correlation enough for more unique parameter values to be estimated by the regression; (2) realistic uncertainties in advective-transport observations had a small effect on parameter estimates relative to the precision with which the parameters were estimated; and (3) the regression results and sensitivity analysis provided insight into the dynamics of the ground-water flow system, especially the importance of accurate boundary conditions. In this work, advective-transport observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation of ground-water flow parameters, and use of regression and related techniques produced significant insight into the physical system.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2005

Inverse models: A necessary next step in ground-water modeling

Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.

Groundwater↗
USGS2005

Numerical methods for improving sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of virus transport simulated using sorptive-reactive processes

Using one- and two-dimensional homogeneous simulations, this paper addresses challenges associated with sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for virus transport simulated using sorptive-reactive processes. Head, flow, and conservative- and virus-transport observations are considered. The paper examines the use of (1) observed-value weighting, (2) breakthrough-curve temporal moment observations, and (3) the significance of changes in the transport time-step size. The results suggest that (1) sensitivities using observed-value weighting are more susceptible to numerical solution variability, (2) temporal moments of the breakthrough curve are a more robust measure of sensitivity than individual conservative-transport observations, and (3) the transport-simulation time step size is more important than the inactivation rate in solution and about as important as at least two other parameters, reflecting the ease with which results can be influenced by numerical issues. The approach presented allows more accurate evaluation of the information provided by observations for estimation of parameters and generally improves the potential for reasonable parameter-estimation results. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗
USGS2005

Parameter and observation importance in modelling virus transport in saturated porous media - Investigations in a homogenous system

This paper evaluates the importance of seven types of parameters to virus transport: hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity, sorption rate and distribution coefficient (representing physical-chemical filtration), and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation (representing virus inactivation). The first three parameters relate to subsurface transport in general while the last four, the sorption rate, distribution coefficient, and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation rates, represent the interaction of viruses with the porous medium and their ability to persist. The importance of four types of observations to estimate the virus-transport parameters are evaluated: hydraulic heads, flow, temporal moments of conservative-transport concentrations, and virus concentrations. The evaluations are conducted using one- and two-dimensional homogeneous simulations, designed from published field experiments, and recently developed sensitivity-analysis methods. Sensitivity to the transport-simulation time-step size is used to evaluate the importance of numerical solution difficulties. Results suggest that hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and sorption are most important to virus-transport predictions. Most observation types provide substantial information about hydraulic conductivity and porosity; only virus-concentration observations provide information about sorption and inactivation. The observations are not sufficient to estimate these important parameters uniquely. Even with all observation types, there is extreme parameter correlation between porosity and hydraulic conductivity and between the sorption rate and in-solution inactivation. Parameter estimation was accomplished by fixing values of porosity and in-solution inactivation.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗
USGS2004

Three-dimensional local grid refinement for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using iteratively coupled shared nodes: A new method of interpolation and analysis of errors

This paper describes work that extends to three dimensions the two-dimensional local-grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models of Mehl and Hill [Development and evaluation of a local grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using shared nodes. Adv Water Resour 2002;25(5):497-511]. In this approach, the (parent) finite-difference grid is discretized more finely within a (child) sub-region. The grid refinement method sequentially solves each grid and uses specified flux (parent) and specified head (child) boundary conditions to couple the grids. Iteration achieves convergence between heads and fluxes of both grids. Of most concern is how to interpolate heads onto the boundary of the child grid such that the physics of the parent-grid flow is retained in three dimensions. We develop a new two-step, "cage-shell" interpolation method based on the solution of the flow equation on the boundary of the child between nodes shared with the parent grid. Error analysis using a test case indicates that the shared-node local grid refinement method with cage-shell boundary head interpolation is accurate and robust, and the resulting code is used to investigate three-dimensional local grid refinement of stream-aquifer interactions. Results reveal that (1) the parent and child grids interact to shift the true head and flux solution to a different solution where the heads and fluxes of both grids are in equilibrium, (2) the locally refined model provided a solution for both heads and fluxes in the region of the refinement that was more accurate than a model without refinement only if iterations are performed so that both heads and fluxes are in equilibrium, and (3) the accuracy of the coupling is limited by the parent-grid size - A coarse parent grid limits correct representation of the hydraulics in the feedback from the child grid.

Advances in Water Resources↗
USGS2003

Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new “value of improved information” (VOII) method presented here, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified as most important are associated with flow system attributes that do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters. Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed at improving model predictions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2003

Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models.

In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters were more equally sensitive. When the statistical measures fail, parameter correlation can be identified only by the tedious process of executing regression using different sets of starting values, or, in some circumstances, through graphs of the objective function.

Ground Water↗
USGS2002

Development and evaluation of a local grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using shared nodes

A new method of local grid refinement for two-dimensional block-centered finite-difference meshes is presented in the context of steady-state groundwater-flow modeling. The method uses an iteration-based feedback with shared nodes to couple two separate grids. The new method is evaluated by comparison with results using a uniform fine mesh, a variably spaced mesh, and a traditional method of local grid refinement without a feedback. Results indicate: (1) The new method exhibits quadratic convergence for homogeneous systems and convergence equivalent to uniform-grid refinement for heterogeneous systems. (2) Coupling the coarse grid with the refined grid in a numerically rigorous way allowed for improvement in the coarse-grid results. (3) For heterogeneous systems, commonly used linear interpolation of heads from the large model onto the boundary of the refined model produced heads that are inconsistent with the physics of the flow field. (4) The traditional method works well in situations where the better resolution of the locally refined grid has little influence on the overall flow-system dynamics, but if this is not true, lack of a feedback mechanism produced errors in head up to 3.6% and errors in cell-to-cell flows up to 25%. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources↗
USGS2002

Locally refined block-centered finite-difference groundwater models: Evaluation of parameter sensitivity and the consequences for inverse modelling and predictions

Models with local grid refinement, as often required in groundwater models, pose special problems for model calibration. This work investigates the calculation of sensitivities and performance of regression methods using two existing and one new method of grid refinement. The existing local grid refinement methods considered are (1) a variably spaced grid in which the grid spacing becomes smaller near the area of interest and larger where such detail is not needed and (2) telescopic mesh refinement (TMR), which uses the hydraulic heads or fluxes of a regional model to provide the boundary conditions for a locally refined model. The new method has a feedback between the regional and local grids using shared nodes, and thereby, unlike the TMR methods, balances heads and fluxes at the interfacing boundary. Results for sensitivities are compared for the three methods and the effect of the accuracy of sensitivity calculations are evaluated by comparing inverse modelling results. For the cases tested, results indicate that the inaccuracies of the sensitivities calculated using the TMR approach can cause the inverse model to converge to an incorrect solution.

Acta Universitatis Carolinae, Geologica↗
USGS2002

Locally refined block-centred finite-difference groundwater models: Evaluation of parameter sensitivity and the consequences for inverse modelling

Models with local grid refinement, as often required in groundwater models, pose special problems for model calibration. This work investigates the calculation of sensitivities and the performance of regression methods using two existing and one new method of grid refinement. The existing local grid refinement methods considered are: (a) a variably spaced grid in which the grid spacing becomes smaller near the area of interest and larger where such detail is not needed, and (b) telescopic mesh refinement (TMR), which uses the hydraulic heads or fluxes of a regional model to provide the boundary conditions for a locally refined model. The new method has a feedback between the regional and local grids using shared nodes, and thereby, unlike the TMR methods, balances heads and fluxes at the interfacing boundary. Results for sensitivities are compared for the three methods and the effect of the accuracy of sensitivity calculations are evaluated by comparing inverse modelling results. For the cases tested, results indicate that the inaccuracies of the sensitivities calculated using the TMR approach can cause the inverse model to converge to an incorrect solution.

IAHS-AISH Publication↗
USGS2002

Weighting observations in the context of calibrating groundwater models

This paper investigates four issues related to weighting observations in the context of groundwater models calibrated with nonlinear regression: (a) terminology, (b) determining values for the weighting, (c) measurement and model errors, and (4) the effect weighting can have on the accuracy of calibrated models and measures of uncertainty. It is shown that the confusing aspects of weighting can be managed, and are not a practical barrier to using regression methods.

IAHS-AISH Publication↗
USGS2002

Weighting observations in the context of calibrating ground-water models

This paper investigates four issues related to weighting observations in the context of ground-water models calibrated with nonlinear regression: (1) terminology, (2) determining values for the weighting, (3) measurement and model errors, and (4) the effect weighting can have on the accuracy of calibrated models and measures of uncertainty. It is shown that the confusing aspects of weighting can be managed, and are not a practical barrier to using regression methods.

Acta Universitatis Carolinae, Geologica↗
USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model -Documentation of the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package

This report documents the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package for the groundwater modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The HUF Package is an alternative internal flow package that allows the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology to be defined explicitly within the model using hydrogeologic units that can be different than the definition of the model layers. The HUF Package works with all the processes of MODFLOW-2000. For the Ground-Water Flow Process, the HUF Package calculates effective hydraulic properties for the model layers based on the hydraulic properties of the hydrogeologic units, which are defined by the user using parameters. The hydraulic properties are used to calculate the conductance coefficients and other terms needed to solve the ground-water flow equation. The sensitivity of the model to the parameters defined within the HUF Package input file can be calculated using the Sensitivity Process, using observations defined with the Observation Process. Optimal values of the parameters can be estimated by using the Parameter-Estimation Process. The HUF Package is nearly identical to the Layer-Property Flow (LPF) Package, the major difference being the definition of the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology. Use of the HUF Package is illustrated in two test cases, which also serve to verify the performance of the package by showing that the Parameter-Estimation Process produces the true parameter values when exact observations are used.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

Guidelines for model calibration and application to flow simulation in the Death Valley regional groundwater system

Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Predictive modelling of flow in a two-dimensional intermediate-scale, heterogeneous porous media

To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.To better understand the role of sedimentary structures in flow through porous media, and to determine how small-scale laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity relate to in situ values this work deterministically examines flow through simple, artificial structures constructed for a series of intermediate-scale (10 m long), two-dimensional, heterogeneous, laboratory experiments. Nonlinear regression was used to determine optimal values of in situ hydraulic conductivity, which were compared to laboratory-measured values. Despite explicit numerical representation of the heterogeneity, the optimized values were generally greater than the laboratory-measured values. Discrepancies between measured and optimal values varied depending on the sand sieve size, but their contribution to error in the predicted flow was fairly consistent for all sands. Results indicate that, even under these controlled circumstances, laboratory-measured values of hydraulic conductivity need to be applied to models cautiously.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

A comparison of solute-transport solution techniques based on inverse modelling results

Five common numerical techniques (finite difference, predictor-corrector, total-variation-diminishing, method-of-characteristics, and modified-method-of-characteristics) were tested using simulations of a controlled conservative tracer-test experiment through a heterogeneous, two-dimensional sand tank. The experimental facility was constructed using randomly distributed homogeneous blocks of five sand types. This experimental model provides an outstanding opportunity to compare the solution techniques because of the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distribution of known structure, and the availability of detailed measurements with which to compare simulated concentrations. The present work uses this opportunity to investigate how three common types of results-simulated breakthrough curves, sensitivity analysis, and calibrated parameter values-change in this heterogeneous situation, given the different methods of simulating solute transport. The results show that simulated peak concentrations, even at very fine grid spacings, varied because of different amounts of numerical dispersion. Sensitivity analysis results were robust in that they were independent of the solution technique. They revealed extreme correlation between hydraulic conductivity and porosity, and that the breakthrough curve data did not provide enough information about the dispersivities to estimate individual values for the five sands. However, estimated hydraulic conductivity values are significantly influenced by both the large possible variations in model dispersion and the amount of numerical dispersion present in the solution technique.Five common numerical techniques (finite difference, predictor-corrector, total-variation-diminishing, method-of-characteristics, and modified-method-of-characteristics) were tested using simulations of a controlled conservative tracer-test experiment through a heterogeneous, two-dimensional sand tank. The experimental facility was constructed using randomly distributed homogeneous blocks of five sand types. This experimental model provides an outstanding opportunity to compare the solution techniques because of the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distribution of known structure, and the availability of detailed measurements with which to compare simulated concentrations. The present work uses this opportunity to investigate how three common types of results - simulated breakthrough curves, sensitivity analysis, and calibrated parameter values - change in this heterogeneous situation, given the different methods of simulating solute transport. The results show that simulated peak concentrations, even at very fine grid spacings, varied because of different amounts of numerical dispersion. Sensitivity analysis results were robust in that they were independent of the solution technique. They revealed extreme correlation between hydraulic conductivity and porosity, and that the breakthrough curve data did not provide enough information about the dispersivities to estimate individual values for the five sands. However, estimated hydraulic conductivity values are significantly influenced by both the large possible variations in model dispersion and the amount of numerical dispersion present in the solution technique.

Conference Paper↗