Geology topics

Lindsay A. Bearup

Publications and source records attributed to Lindsay A. Bearup.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Fine-resolution satellite remote sensing improves spatially distributed snow modeling to near real time

Given the highly variable distribution of seasonal snowpacks in complex mountainous environments, the accurate snow modeling of basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) requires a spatially distributed approach at a sufficiently fine grid resolution (<500 m) to account for the important processes in the seasonal evolution of a snowpack (e.g., wind redistribution of snow to resolve patchy snow cover in an alpine zone). However, even well-validated snow evolution models, such as SnowModel, are prone to errors when key model inputs, such as the precipitation and wind speed and direction, are inaccurate or only available at coarse spatial resolutions. Incorporating fine-spatial-resolution remotely sensed snow-covered area (SCA) information into spatially distributed snow modeling has the potential to refine and improve fine-resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. This study developed 30 m resolution SnowModel simulations across the Big Thompson River, Fraser River, Three Lakes, and Willow Creek Basins, a total area of 4212 km 2 in Colorado, for the water years 2000–2023, and evaluated the incorporation of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat SCA datasets into the model’s development and calibration. The SnowModel was calibrated spatially to the Landsat mean annual snow persistence (SP) and temporally to the MODIS mean basin SCA using a multi-objective calibration procedure executed using Latin hypercube sampling and a stepwise calibration process. The Landsat mean annual SP was also used to further optimize the SnowModel simulations through the development of a spatially variable precipitation correction field. The evaluations of the SnowModel simulations using the Airborne Snow Observatories’ (ASO’s) light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived SWE estimates show that the versions of the SnowModel calibrated to the remotely sensed SCA had an improved performance (mean error ranging from −28 mm to −6 mm) compared with the baseline simulations (mean error ranging from 69 mm to 86 mm), and comparable spatial patterns to those of the ASO, especially at the highest elevations. Furthermore, this study’s results highlight how a regularly updated 30 m resolution SCA could be used to further improve the calibrated SnowModel simulations to near real time (latency of 5 days or less).

Colorado↗

USGS2021

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Numerical experiments to explain multiscale hydrological responses to mountain pine beetle tree mortality in a headwater watershed

The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)-induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high-resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB-affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB-affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope-scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field-based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope-scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB-induced tree mortality was offset by increased late-summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB-induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long-term gage observations that are complicated by inter-annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB-affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2014

Hydrological effects of forest transpiration loss in bark beetle-impacted watersheds

The recent climate-exacerbated mountain pine beetle infestation in the Rocky Mountains of North America has resulted in tree death that is unprecedented in recorded history. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity inherent in insect infestation creates a complex and often unpredictable watershed response, influencing the primary storage and flow components of the hydrologic cycle. Despite the increased vulnerability of forested ecosystems under changing climate 1 , watershed-scale implications of interception, ground evaporation, and transpiration changes remain relatively unknown, with conflicting reports of streamflow perturbations across regions. Here, contributions to streamflow are analysed through time and space to investigate the potential for increased groundwater inputs resulting from hydrologic change after infestation. Results demonstrate that fractional late-summer groundwater contributions from impacted watersheds are 30 ± 15% greater after infestation and when compared with a neighbouring watershed that experienced earlier and less-severe attack, albeit uncertainty propagations through time and space are considerable. Water budget analysis confirms that transpiration loss resulting from beetle kill can account for the relative increase in groundwater contributions to streams, often considered the sustainable flow fraction and critical to mountain water supplies and ecosystems.

Colorado↗