Geology topics

Lauren R. Kaiser

Publications and source records attributed to Lauren R. Kaiser.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Exploring and integrating differences in niche characteristics across regional and global scales to better understand plant invasions in Hawaiʻi

The spread of ecosystem modifying invasive plant (EMIP) species is one of the largest threats to native ecosystems in Hawaiʻi. However, differences in niche characteristics between Hawaiʻi’s isolated insular environment and the wider global distribution of these species have not been carefully examined. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to assess similarities and differences in niche characteristics between global and regional scales for 17 EMIPs present in Hawaiʻi. With a clearer understanding of the global context of regional plant invasion, we combined two SDM methods to better understand the potential future regional spread: (1) a nested modeling approach to integrate global and regional invasive species distribution projections; and (2) integrating all available agency and citizen science data to minimize the effect of monitoring gaps and biases. Our results show there are multiple similarities in niche characteristics across regional and global scales for most species, such as similar sets of climatic determinants of distribution, similar responses along environmental gradients, and moderate to high niche overlap between global and regional models. However, some differences were apparent and likely due to several factors including incomplete regional spread, community assembly or diversity effects. Invaders that established earlier showed a higher degree of niche overlap and similar environmental gradient responses when comparing global and regional models. This pattern, coupled with the tendency for regionally-based projections to predict narrower distributions than global projections, indicates a potential for continued spread of several invasive species across the Hawaiian landscape. Our study has broader implications for understanding the distribution and spread of invasive species in other regions, as similar analyses and models, including a novel way to characterize environmental gradient response differences across regions or scales, can likely provide valuable information for conservation and management efforts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies

The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertainty in future climate or the possible range of potential scenarios. Consequently, global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world. However, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we explore the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) in providing plausible future climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our analysis was based on three steps: (1) standardizing a baseline period to compare available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets; (2) bias correcting projections using a single observation-based baseline; and (3) having controlled differences in baselines between datasets, exploring the patterns and magnitude of projected climate shifts from these datasets to determine their plausibility as future climate scenarios, using Hawaiʻi as an example region. Focusing on mean annual temperature and precipitation, we show projected climate shifts from these commonly used global datasets not only may vary significantly from one another but may also fall well outside the range of future scenarios derived from regional downscaling efforts. As species distribution models are commonly created from these datasets, we further illustrate how a substantial portion of variability in future species distribution shifts can arise from the choice of global dataset used. Hence, projected shifts between baseline and future scenarios from these global downscaled projections warrant careful evaluation before use in climate impact studies, something rarely done in the existing literature.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (T min , T mean , T max ) and mean precipitation (P mean ) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Fostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria

Various vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds in their natural habitats from avian malaria transmission. However, vector control options require localized deployment that is not logistically, ethically, ecologically, nor economically viable everywhere and all the time. Based on thermal tolerances of the sporogonic stages of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) parasite and its vector, the southern house mosquito (Culex quinquefasciatus), we examined the long-term weather trends for three high value, forest bird refuges (Alakai Wilderness Preserve on Kaua’i, Hanawi Natural Area Reserve on Maui, and Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge on Hawai’i Island) to understand the temporal and site-specific differences of temperature-driven suitability for localized avian malaria transmission. On average, Alakai had mean ambient temperatures suitable for both the vector’s immature stage development and parasite sporogonic development most of the time (85.3%), indicating that observed variability in vector abundance or disease transmission may be driven by other factors. At higher elevation sites like Hakalau and Hanawi, current mean ambient temperatures suitable only for vector development prevail (91.7% and 96.6%, respectively), while mean ambient temperatures for both vector and parasite sporogonic development seldom occur (4.4% and 0% respectively). Our results not only show differences in the temperature suitability for transmission across elevation, but also different levels of vulnerability to avian malaria transmission with any additional projected increase in temperature. For instance, under a conservative warming scenario of 1.0 °C, the joint temperature suitability of parasite and vector development increases at higher elevation sites such as Hakalau (+35.8%) and Hanawi (+15.4%). While mean ambient temperatures suitable for both vector and parasite development already occur most of the time at Alakai, the occurrence also increases (+8.4%) as well under this conservative warming scenario. By linking current site-specific weather data to real-time weather forecasts, we developed a real-time avian malaria warning system to assist managers in identifying conditions when vector control is most needed at these three selected study sites. This online tool determines when conditions are likely to be suitable for local development of P. relictum and C. quinquefasciatus at Alakai, Hanawi, and Hakalau. This tool illustrates how managers can incorporate climate and current weather patterns into decision making without having to consider the uncertainties of long-term climatic and ecological projections.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens ( Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia ) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia , we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Hawaii↗