Geology ReportsSearch

EXPLORE THE ARCHIVE

Lauren N. Schaefer

Publications and source records attributed to Lauren N. Schaefer.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Sackung at Bald Eagle ridge, central Colorado: An updated interpretation of ridge-spreading movement, structures, and mechanisms from 50 years (1975–2025) of U.S. Geological Survey research

Slow gravitational failures of mountain peaks and ridges are poorly understood. Herein, we report on 50 years of studies at a slowly spreading castellate ridge in the Sawatch Range in central Colorado. The orientations of geomorphic-structural features indicate that the fractured Precambrian granitic rock underlying the ridge has extended and spread northwestward toward the formerly glacier-covered Busk Creek valley. Results from surveying, field-based geomorphic-structural mapping using lidar, rock mass quality measurements, a passive seismic survey, and satellite radar provide a major update to research started by U.S. Geological Survey researchers in the 1970s and 1980s. New insights include a recognition that the entire ridge has slowly moved by concurrent sliding along an inferred northwest dipping, compound basal-slip surface (or zone), and through the formation of multiple grabens by normal faulting and flexural toppling along sets of pre-existing fractures that dip moderately (∼45°) to the southeast. We were unable to distinguish the presence of a sudden and strong contrast in seismic velocity across the inferred slip surface. Movement during the 50-year study period has been episodic and gradually decreasing, in correspondence with decreasing cumulative annual precipitation and increasing mean annual air temperatures. The fastest moving area, just upslope from the glacier trimline, had an average horizontal velocity of 3 – 4 mm/yr. Evidence suggests that movement started as a paraglacial response mechanism, but because of the site’s proximity to the Rio Grande Rift, we cannot exclude earthquake shaking as a mechanism for initiation or enhancement of slope movement. An estimate of longer-term horizontal movement from the exposed basal-slip surface at the uphill side of the ridgetop graben is ∼1.1 mm/yr for the 13 – 14 ky post-glacial period. Broad implications of our work are that: (1) long-term measurements (decades or longer) of slope movement can add insights into how sackungen form and evolve through time; (2) the identification of thrust faults and toes in zones of compression near valley bottoms can be crucial for interpreting sackung failure mechanisms, and (3) the use of passive-seismic techniques to identify the depth to a slip surface may not be successful in granitic terrain dominated by planar fractures and subtle changes in rock-mass characteristics.

Colorado

Insights into widespread landsliding in southern Appalachia from Hurricane Helene

Between 23 and 27 September 2024, antecedent rain followed by Hurricane Helene produced one of the most damaging weather events in southern Appalachia history. The back-to-back storm events resulted in a maximum cumulative rainfall of 848 mm and hurricane-force wind gusts over 170 km/h in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. The resulting regional flooding, landslides, and tree blowdown caused over 100 fatalities, damaged or destroyed critical infrastructure and thousands of structures, and severed connectivity across the region. Over the next several weeks, a multi-agency landslide response produced a rapid hazard assessment and mapped 2217 landslides, 55% of which damaged infrastructure or property. Orographic uplift enhanced rainfall, resulting in concentrated landsliding along the ~250 km swath of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western North Carolina. Landslides initiated predominantly on windward-facing (southeast-facing) slopes, and localized clustering of initiation points indicated a strong influence of hillslope-scale meteorological and geomorphic factors. Many shallow landslides mobilized into larger, highly mobile, and damaging debris flows that graded into floods. Here, we put our preliminary observations in the context of historical storm-driven landslide events and open new avenues for investigating the nature and extent of landslides and their effects in southern Appalachia and similar environments.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

2024 Surprise Inlet landslides: Insights from a prototype landslide‐triggered tsunami monitoring system in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Alaska's coastal communities face growing landslide hazards owing to glacier retreat and extreme weather intensified by the warming climate, yet hazard monitoring remains challenging. As part of ongoing experimental monitoring in Prince William Sound, we detected three large landslides (0.5–2.3 M m 3 ) at Surprise Inlet on 20 September 2024, within the span of an hour. These events were identified in near real-time through seismic data and later confirmed using satellite imagery, tidal records, and infrasound. The landslides generated a modest tsunami, and a 4 cm wave was recorded by a tide gauge 18 km away, marking the first recorded landslide to reach water since monitoring began in this region in 2021. Here, we examine the detection and interpretation of these landslides using multiple data sources and modeling. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this regional seismic monitoring system and show how complementary instrumentation, where available, can enhance detection capabilities.

Alaska

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska