Geology topics

Lauren L. Berry

Publications and source records attributed to Lauren L. Berry.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Finding the (small) cores: Spatial covariance tracks grassland bird community occupancy in fragmented grasslands

Grasslands are an imperiled ecosystem, and grassland bird abundance is declining across North America. One of the strongest drivers for these declines is woody plant encroachment of grasslands. In the Great Plains and Sagebrush biomes of North America, spatial covariance—a remote-sensing metric for tracking boundaries between vegetation types—is emerging as a new method to identify and strategize conservation of grassland cores in the face of woody plant encroachment. However, the relationship between spatial covariance and grassland bird community occupancy is unknown. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy models to understand how occupancy probability of six declining grassland species responded to spatial covariance at three scales (0.81, 7.29, and 65.61 ha) and tree cover in fragmented grasslands of Arkansas, USA. Model selection revealed that the smallest spatial scale (0.81 ha) best explained grassland bird occupancy. Tree cover alone was a poor predictor of grassland bird occupancy compared to models that included spatial covariance at the 0.81- and 7.29-ha scales. Grassland bird occupancy declined at tree-grass boundaries (negative spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale) and increased in grassland cores (near-zero or slightly positive spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale). At low tree cover, Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ), Eastern Kingbird ( Tyrannus tyrannus ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), and Scissor-tailed Flycatcher ( Tyrannus forficatus ) occupancy probability more than doubled in grassland cores (where spatial covariance approached zero). Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) had the weakest relationship with spatial covariance. Our results suggest that spatial covariance can identify grassland cores and serve as a powerful predictor of grassland bird community occupancy, even in highly fragmented grasslands. Identifying grassland cores empowers defending core grasslands from woody plant encroachment and then growing cores via active restoration.

Arkansas↗

USGS2025

Rallus elegans (King Rail) occupancy is stable, but habitat is in short supply in the Arkansas Delta

Secretive marsh birds experienced precipitous declines due to losses in wetland habitat across North America. However, from 1998 to 2004, wetland area increased, and between 2009 and 2019, the extent of emergent wetlands did not significantly decrease. This raises the question: how did secretive marsh birds, which are tied to emergent wetlands, respond to this period of relative stability in wetland area? Here, we use Rallus elegans (King Rail) occurrence data collected in 2005, 2006, 2012, and 2017 in the Arkansas Delta in the United States to test the hypothesis that a period of stability in wetland vegetation is linked to stable Rallus elegans occupancy. Specifically, we sought to (1) quantify relationships between R. elegans occupancy and land cover, (2) quantify temporal trends in R. elegans occupancy, and (3) characterize changes in land cover types linked to R. elegans occupancy. We developed spatial multi-season occupancy models, and our top model contained the categorical year effect but showed no trend in R. elegans occupancy between 2005 and 2017, instead showing high interannual variation in occupancy. We found strong associations between R. elegans occupancy and emergent wetlands (positive) and elevation (negative). From 2005 to 2017 in the ∼3.7 million ha Arkansas Delta, rice crop cover decreased by 294,750 ha, emergent wetlands increased by 6,719 ha, and all other cover types increased or decreased by < 7,500 ha. Thus, although emergent wetlands did increase, the total area of emergent wetlands in 2016 (22,262 ha) comprised <1% of the Arkansas Delta. Our results support the hypothesis that R. elegans occupancy stabilized during a time when the main habitat type R. elegans depend on, emergent wetlands, also stabilized in spatial extent. There is an opportunity to turn the tide in R. elegans declines by conserving extant emergent wetlands and creating new emergent wetlands.

Arkansas↗

USGS2023

Scenario planning and multispecies occupancy models reveal positive avian responses to restoration of afforested woodlands

Scenario planning is a powerful approach for assessing restoration outcomes under alternative futures. However, developing plausible scenarios remains daunting in complex systems like ecological communities. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy modeling to develop scenarios to assess woodland restoration outcomes in afforested communities in seven wildlife management areas in Arkansas, U.S.A. Our objectives were (1) to define plausible woodland restoration and afforestation scenarios by quantifying historic ranges of variation in mean tree cover and tree cover heterogeneity from 1986 to 2021 and (2) to predict changes in bird species richness and occupancy patterns for six species of greatest conservation need under two future scenarios: complete afforestation (100% tree cover) and woodland restoration (based on remotely sensed historic tree cover). Using 35 years of remotely sensed tree cover data and 6 years of bird monitoring data, we developed multispecies occupancy models to predict future bird species richness and occupancy under the complete afforestation and woodland restoration scenarios. Between 1986 and 2021, tree cover increased in all study areas—with one increasing 70%. Under the woodland restoration scenario, avian species richness increased up to 20%, and four of six species of greatest conservation need exhibited gains in occupancy probability. The complete afforestation scenario had negligible effects on richness and occupancy. Overall, we found decreasing tree cover to historic levels prior to widespread afforestation would provide community-level benefits and would do little harm even to forest-dependent species of conservation concern. Applying multispecies occupancy modeling within a scenario planning framework allows for comparing multiscale trade-offs between plausible futures.

Restoration Ecology↗