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Larry G. Mastin

Publications and source records attributed to Larry G. Mastin.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Evidence for large compositional ranges in coeval melts erupted from Kīlauea's summit reservoir

Petrologic observations on Kīlauea's lavas include abundant microprobe analyses of glasses, which show the range of melts available in Kīlauea's summit reservoir over time. During the past two centuries, compositions of melts erupted within the caldera have been limited to MgO = 6.3–7.5 wt%. Extracaldera lavas of the 1959, 1971, and 1974 eruptions contain melts with up to 10.2, 8.9, and 9.2 wt% MgO, respectively, and the 1924 tephra contains juvenile Pele's tears with up to 9.1 wt% MgO. Melt compositions from explosive deposits at Kīlauea, including the Keanakāko‘i (A.D. 1500–1800), Kulanaokuaiki (A.D. 400–1000), and Pāhala (10–25 ka) tephra units, show large ranges of MgO contents. The range of melt MgO is 6.5–11.0 wt% for the Keanakāko‘i; the Kulanaokuaiki extends to 12.5% MgO and the Pāhala Ash includes rare shards with 13–14.5% MgO. The frequency distributions for MgO in the Keanakāko‘i and Kulanaokuaiki glasses are bimodal, suggesting preferential magma storage at two different depths. Kīlauea's summit reservoir contains melts ranging from 6.5 to at least 11.0 wt% MgO, and such melts were available for sampling near instantaneously and repeatedly over centuries. More magnesian melts are inferred to have risen directly from greater depth.

Hawaii

Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption

We used the volcanic ash transport and dispersion model Ash3d to estimate the distribution of ashfall that would result from a modern-day Plinian supereruption at Yellowstone volcano. The simulations required modifying Ash3d to consider growth of a continent-scale umbrella cloud and its interaction with ambient wind fields. We simulated eruptions lasting 3 days, 1 week, and 1 month, each producing 330 km 3 of volcanic ash, dense-rock equivalent (DRE). Results demonstrate that radial expansion of the umbrella cloud is capable of driving ash upwind (westward) and crosswind (N-S) in excess of 1500 km, producing more-or-less radially symmetric isopachs that are only secondarily modified by ambient wind. Deposit thicknesses are decimeters to meters in the northern Rocky Mountains, centimeters to decimeters in the northern Midwest, and millimeters to centimeters on the East, West, and Gulf Coasts. Umbrella cloud growth may explain the extremely widespread dispersal of the ∼640 ka and 2.1 Ma Yellowstone tephra deposits in the eastern Pacific, northeastern California, southern California, and South Texas.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Testing the accuracy of a 1-D volcanic plume model in estimating mass eruption rate

During volcanic eruptions, empirical relationships are used to estimate mass eruption rate from plume height. Although simple, such relationships can be inaccurate and can underestimate rates in windy conditions. One-dimensional plume models can incorporate atmospheric conditions and give potentially more accurate estimates. Here I present a 1-D model for plumes in crosswind and simulate 25 historical eruptions where plume height H obs was well observed and mass eruption rate M obs could be calculated from mapped deposit mass and observed duration. The simulations considered wind, temperature, and phase changes of water. Atmospheric conditions were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 2.5° model. Simulations calculate the minimum, maximum, and average values ( M min , M max , and M avg ) that fit the plume height. Eruption rates were also estimated from the empirical formula M empir = 140 H obs 4.14 ( M empir is in kilogram per second, H obs is in kilometer). For these eruptions, the standard error of the residual in log space is about 0.53 for M avg and 0.50 for M empir . Thus, for this data set, the model is slightly less accurate at predicting M obs than the empirical curve. The inability of this model to improve eruption rate estimates may lie in the limited accuracy of even well-observed plume heights, inaccurate model formulation, or the fact that most eruptions examined were not highly influenced by wind. For the low, wind-blown plume of 14–18 April 2010 at Eyjafjallajökull, where an accurate plume height time series is available, modeled rates do agree better with M obs than M empir .

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Cycles of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

The subaerial eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) for the past 2500 yr can be divided into 3 dominantly effusive and 2 dominantly explosive periods, each lasting several centuries. The prevailing style of eruption for 60% of this time was explosive, manifested by repeated phreatic and phreatomagmatic activity in a deep summit caldera. During dominantly explosive periods, the magma supply rate to the shallow storage volume beneath the summit dropped to only a few percent of that during mainly effusive periods. The frequency and duration of explosive activity are contrary to the popular impression that Kīlauea is almost unceasingly effusive. Explosive activity apparently correlates with the presence of a caldera intersecting the water table. The decrease in magma supply rate may result in caldera collapse, because erupted or intruded magma is not replaced. Glasses with unusually high MgO, TiO 2 , and K 2 O compositions occur only in explosive tephra (and one related lava flow) and are consistent with disruption of the shallow reservoir complex during caldera formation. Kīlauea is a complex, modulated system in which melting rate, supply rate, conduit stability (in both mantle and crust), reservoir geometry, water table, and many other factors interact with one another. The hazards associated with explosive activity at Kīlauea’s summit would have major impact on local society if a future dominantly explosive period were to last several centuries. The association of lowered magma supply, caldera formation, and explosive activity might characterize other basaltic volcanoes, but has not been recognized.

Hawai'i

Electron microprobe analyses of glasses from Kīlauea tephra units, Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii

This report presents approximately 2,100 glass analyses from three tephra units of Kīlauea Volcano: the Keanakākoʻi Tephra, the Kulanaokuaiki Tephra, and the Pāhala Ash. It also includes some new analyses obtained as part of a re-evaluation of the MgO contents of glasses in two of the three original datasets; this re-evaluation was conducted to improve the consistency of glass MgO contents among the three datasets. The glass data are a principal focus of Helz and others (in press), which will appear in the AGU Monograph Hawaiian Volcanoes—From Source to Surface. The report is intended to support this publication, in addition to making the data available to the scientific community.

Hawai'i

User’s guide and reference to Ash3d—A three-dimensional model for Eulerian atmospheric tephra transport and deposition

Ash3d is a three-dimensional Eulerian atmospheric model for tephra transport, dispersal, and deposition to study and forecast hazards of volcanic ash clouds and tephra fall. In this report, we explain how to set up simulations using a web interface, and how to view and interpret model output. We also summarize the architecture of the model and some of its properties.

Open-File Report

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

Geophysical Monograph

Injection, transport, and deposition of tephra during event 5 at Redoubt Volcano, 23 March, 2009

Among the events of the 2009 eruption at Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, event 5 was the best documented by radar, satellite imagery, and deposit mapping. We use the new Eulerian tephra transport model Ash3d to simulate transport and deposition of event 5 tephra at distances up to 350 km. The eruption, which started at about 1230 UTC on 23 March, 2009, sent a plume from the vent elevation (estimated at 2.3 ± 0.1 km above sea level or a.s.l.) to about 16 ± 2 km above sea level in 5 min. The plume was a few kilometers higher than would be expected for the estimated average mass eruption rate and atmospheric conditions, possibly due to release of most of the eruptive mass in the first half of the 20-minute event. The eruption injected tephra into a wind field of high shear, with weak easterly winds below ~ 3 km elevation, strong southerly winds at 6–10 km and weak westerlies above ~ 16 km. Model simulations in this wind field predicted development of a northward-migrating inverted “v”-shaped cloud with a southwest-trending arm at a few kilometers elevation, which was not visible in IR satellite images due to cloud cover, and a southeast-trending arm at > 10 km elevation that was clearly visible. Simulations also predicted a deposit distribution that strongly depended on plume height: a plume height below 15 km predicted ash deposits that were located west of those mapped, whereas good agreement was reached with a modeled plume height of 15–18 km. Field sampling of the deposit found it to contain abundant tephra aggregates, which accelerated the removal of tephra from the atmosphere. We were able to reasonably approximate the effect of aggregation on the deposit mass distribution by two methods: (1) adjusting the grain-size distribution, taking the erupted mass < = 0.063 mm in diameter and distributing it evenly into bins of coarser size; and (2) moving 80–90% of the mass < = 0.063 mm into a single particle bin ranging in size from 0.25 to 1 mm. These methods produced an area inside the 100 g m − 2 isomass lines that was within a few tens of percent of mapped area; however they under-predicted deposit mass at very proximal (< 50 km) and very distal (> 250 km) locations. Modeled grain-size distributions at sample locations are also generally coarser than observed. The mismatch may result from a combination of limitations in field sampling, approximations inherent in the model, errors in the numerical wind field, and aggregation of particles larger than 0.063 mm.

Alaska

Impact of reduced near-field entrainment of overpressured volcanic jets on plume development

Volcanic plumes are often studied using one-dimensional analytical models, which use an empirical entrainment ratio to close the equations. Although this ratio is typically treated as constant, its value near the vent is significantly reduced due to flow development and overpressured conditions. To improve the accuracy of these models, a series of experiments was performed using particle image velocimetry, a high-accuracy, full-field velocity measurement technique. Experiments considered a high-speed jet with Reynolds numbers up to 467,000 and exit pressures up to 2.93 times atmospheric. Exit gas densities were also varied from 0.18 to 1.4 times that of air. The measured velocity was integrated to determine entrainment directly. For jets with exit pressures near atmospheric, entrainment was approximately 30% less than the fully developed level at 20 diameters from the exit. At pressures nearly three times that of the atmosphere, entrainment was 60% less. These results were introduced into Plumeria, a one-dimensional plume model, to examine the impact of reduced entrainment. The maximum column height was only slightly modified, but the critical radius for collapse was significantly reduced, decreasing by nearly a factor of two at moderate eruptive pressures.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Ash3d: A finite-volume, conservative numerical model for ash transport and tephra deposition

We develop a transient, 3-D Eulerian model (Ash3d) to predict airborne volcanic ash concentration and tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. This model simulates downwind advection, turbulent diffusion, and settling of ash injected into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption column. Ash advection is calculated using time-varying pre-existing wind data and a robust, high-order, finite-volume method. Our routine is mass-conservative and uses the coordinate system of the wind data, either a Cartesian system local to the volcano or a global spherical system for the Earth. Volcanic ash is specified with an arbitrary number of grain sizes, which affects the fall velocity, distribution and duration of transport. Above the source volcano, the vertical mass distribution with elevation is calculated using a Suzuki distribution for a given plume height, eruptive volume, and eruption duration. Multiple eruptions separated in time may be included in a single simulation. We test the model using analytical solutions for transport. Comparisons of the predicted and observed ash distributions for the 18 August 1992 eruption of Mt. Spurr in Alaska demonstrate to the efficacy and efficiency of the routine.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Experimental study of near-field air entrainment by subsonic volcanic jets

The flow structure in the developing region of a turbulent jet has been examined using particle image velocimetry methods, considering the flow at steady state conditions. The velocity fields were integrated to determine the ratio of the entrained air speed to the jet speed, which was approximately 0.03 for a range of Mach numbers up to 0.89 and Reynolds numbers up to 217,000. This range of experimental Mach and Reynolds numbers is higher than previously considered for high-accuracy entrainment measures, particularly in the near-vent region. The entrainment values are below those commonly used for geophysical analyses of volcanic plumes, suggesting that existing 1-D models are likely to understate the tendency for column collapse.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H , mass eruption rate Ṁ , duration D , and the mass fraction m 63 of erupted debris finer than about 4ϕ or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m 63 could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions (∼ 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's ∼ 1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Preliminary spreadsheet of eruption source parameters for volcanoes of the world

Volcanic eruptions that spew tephra into the atmosphere pose a hazard to jet aircraft. For this reason, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has designated nine Volcanic Ash and Aviation Centers (VAACs) around the world whose purpose is to track ash clouds from eruptions and notify aircraft so that they may avoid these ash clouds. During eruptions, VAACs and their collaborators run volcanic-ashtransport- and-dispersion (VATD) models that forecast the location and movement of ash clouds. These models require as input parameters the plume height H, the mass-eruption rate , duration D, erupted volume V (in cubic kilometers of bubble-free or 'dense rock equivalent' [DRE] magma), and the mass fraction of erupted tephra with a particle size smaller than 63 um (m63). Some parameters, such as mass-eruption rate and mass fraction of fine debris, are not obtainable by direct observation; others, such as plume height or duration, are obtainable from observations but may be unavailable in the early hours of an eruption when VATD models are being initiated. For this reason, ash-cloud modelers need to have at their disposal source parameters for a particular volcano that are based on its recent eruptive history and represent the most likely anticipated eruption. They also need source parameters that encompass the range of uncertainty in eruption size or characteristics. In spring of 2007, a workshop was held at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory to derive a protocol for assigning eruption source parameters to ash-cloud models during eruptions. The protocol derived from this effort was published by Mastin and others (in press), along with a world map displaying the assigned eruption type for each of the world's volcanoes. Their report, however, did not include the assigned eruption types in tabular form. Therefore, this Open-File Report presents that table in the form of an Excel spreadsheet. These assignments are preliminary and will be modified to follow upcoming recommendations by the volcanological and aviation communities.

Open-File Report

Constraints on the size, overpressure, and volatile content of the Mount St. Helens magma system from geodetic and dome-growth measurements during the 2004-2006+ eruption

During the ongoing eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington, lava has extruded continuously at a rate that decreased from ~7-9 m 3 /s in October 2004 to 1-2 m 3 /s by December 2005. The volume loss in the magma reservoir estimated from the geodetic data, 1.6-2.7×10 7 m3 , is only a few tens of percent of the 7.5×10 7 m 3 volume that had erupted by the end of 2005.

Washington

A user-friendly one-dimensional model for wet volcanic plumes

This paper presents a user-friendly graphically based numerical model of one-dimensional steady state homogeneous volcanic plumes that calculates and plots profiles of upward velocity, plume density, radius, temperature, and other parameters as a function of height. The model considers effects of water condensation and ice formation on plume dynamics as well as the effect of water added to the plume at the vent. Atmospheric conditions may be specified through input parameters of constant lapse rates and relative humidity, or by loading profiles of actual atmospheric soundings. To illustrate the utility of the model, we compare calculations with field-based estimates of plume height (&sim;9 km) and eruption rate (>&sim;4 &times; 10 5 kg/s) during a brief tephra eruption at Mount St. Helens on 8 March 2005. Results show that the atmospheric conditions on that day boosted plume height by 1&ndash;3 km over that in a standard dry atmosphere. Although the eruption temperature was unknown, model calculations most closely match the observations for a temperature that is below magmatic but above 100&deg;C.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Generation of fine hydromagmatic ash by growth and disintegration of glassy rinds

The deposits of mafic hydromagmatic eruptions are more fine grained and variable in vesicularity than dry magmatic deposits. Blocky, equant shapes of many hydromagmatic clasts also contrast with droplet, thread, and bubble wall morphology of dry magmatic fragments. Small (<∼180 μ m), blocky hydromagmatic pyroclasts have traditionally been interpreted to result from discrete vapor explosions, although such explosions tend to occur only under certain conditions. This paper considers a process of hydromagmatic ash formation that involves repeated growth and disintegration of glassy rinds on pyroclast surfaces as they deform within turbulent flows. This process, termed “turbulent shedding”, may occur during the expansion phase of vapor explosions or during turbulent but nonexplosive mixing of magma with water, steam, or water sprays. The occurrence of turbulent shedding and the resulting fragment sizes depend on the timescale for rind growth and the timescale between disturbances that remove or disintegrate glassy rinds. Turbulent shedding is directly observable in some small littoral jets at Kilauea. Calculations suggest that, in the presence of liquid water or water sprays, glassy rinds having a thickness of microns to millimeters should form in milliseconds to seconds. This is similar to the timescale between turbulent velocity fluctuations that can shred lava globules and remove such rinds. The fraction of a deposit consisting of fine ash should increase with the duration of this process: Large‐scale Surtseyan jets generate hundreds or thousands of shedding events; bubble bursts or tephra jets at Kilauea's coast may produce only a few.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity

Possible future violent events in the active hydrothermal, magmatic, and tectonic system of Yellowstone National Park pose potential hazards to park visitors and infrastructure. Most of the national park and vicinity are sparsely populated, but significant numbers of people as well as park resources could nevertheless be at risk from these hazards. Depending on the nature and magnitude of a particular hazardous event and the particular time and season when it might occur, 70,000 to more than 100,000 persons could be affected; the most violent events could affect a broader region or even continent-wide areas. This assessment of such hazards is presented both as a guide for future activities of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) and to aid appropriate response planning by the National Park Service and surrounding agencies and communities. Although the assessment is presented here in some technical detail, this summary is intended to be understandable to non-scientists. The principal conclusions also will be made available in other forms, more accessible to general readers.

Open-File Report

What makes hydromagmatic eruptions violent? Some insights from the Keanakāko'i Ash, Kı̄lauea Volcano, Hawai'i

Volcanic eruptions at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, are of two dramatically contrasting types: (1) benign lava flows and lava fountains; and (2) violent, mostly prehistoric eruptions that dispersed tephra over hundreds of square kilometers. The violence of the latter eruptions has been attributed to mixing of water and magma within a wet summit caldera; however, magma injection into water at other volcanoes does not consistently produce widespread tephras. To identify other factors that may have contributed to the violence of these eruptions, we sampled tephra from the Keanakako'i Ash, the most recent large hydromagmatic deposit, and measured vesicularity, bubble-number density and dissolved volatile content of juvenile matrix glass to constrain magma ascent rate and degree of degassing at the time of quenching. Bubble-number densities (9X10 (super 4) -1X10 (super 7) cm (super -3) ) of tephra fragments exceed those of most historically erupted Kilauean tephras (3X10 (super 3) -1.8X10 (super 5) cm (super -3) ), and suggest exceptionally high magma effusion rates. Dissolved sulfur (average=330 ppm) and water (0.15-0.45 wt.%) concentrations exceed equilibrium-saturation values at 1 atm pressure (100-150 ppm and approximately 0.09%, respectively), suggesting that clasts quenched before equilibrating to atmospheric pressure. We interpret these results to suggest rapid magma injection into a wet crater, perhaps similar to continuous-uprush jets at Surtsey. Estimates of Reynolds number suggest that the erupting magma was turbulent and would have mixed with surrounding water in vortices ranging downward in size to centimeters. Such fine-scale mixing would have ensured rapid heat exchange and extensive magma fragmentation, maximizing the violence of these eruptions.

Hawaii