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Larkin A. Powell

Publications and source records attributed to Larkin A. Powell.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Extrinsic factors similarly affect nest survival of a threatened shorebird in natural and human-created habitats

Knowledge of factors that influence nest survival can inform effective conservation management for imperiled avian species. Habitat availability and quality are common priorities of conservation efforts, and climate and interspecific associations can also affect survival rates. In the lower Platte River system of eastern Nebraska, USA, Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) nest on river sandbars and different types of human-created off-river sites (i.e., sand and gravel mines, housing developments, and transitional sites) that are unique within the Northern Great Plains breeding population. However, off-river habitat may not be suitable for plover nesting long-term because of reduced habitat availability on both river sandbars and off-river sites. We evaluated plover nest survival at off-river and sandbar sites using data from 2008 to 2023 (n = 285). In addition, we examined the effects of extreme temperatures, proximity to conspecific and Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos , hereafter tern) nests, and temporal factors on nest survival. Plover nest survival did not differ between off-river sites and sandbars or amongst different off-river site types. Daily nest survival was 0.9818 (95% CI = 0.9729–0.9878) from 2008 to 2013 (unexclosed; n = 87) and 0.9950 (0.9918–0.9970) from 2014 to 2023 (exclosed; n = 198). Nest survival increased with the proportion of above average temperature days, increased with proximity to neighboring tern nests, and decreased with later nest initiation dates. Therefore, prioritizing early season nests, recognizing the benefits terns provide to plover nest survival, and monitoring the effect of climatic trends may aid future conservation efforts. Finally, as nest survival at off-river sites is comparable to sandbars, the predicted decline of habitat provided at off-river sites may reduce the overall breeding productivity and abundance of plovers in the lower Platte River system with ramifications to broader population viability.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

Adult and hatch-year survival and fidelity of Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, USA

Knowledge of vital rates informs the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species. In the northern Great Plains, USA, the federally threatened Piping Plover Charadrius melodus uses a variety of nesting habitats including natural river sandbars and human-created sites in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska. In this area, off-river sandpit sites (i.e., active sand and gravel mines, transition sites, and lakeshore housing developments) are not managed to prioritize nesting and are often considered inferior habitat to sandbars. However, most Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system nest off river, especially in years when sandbar habitat is limited. As the quantity of habitat provided at off-river sites is predicted to decline, evaluating vital rates among different off-river nesting habitats will inform future conservation efforts. We estimated annual survival and fidelity of adult (n = 165) and hatch-year (n = 671) Piping Plovers from 2008 to 2018 and within-season weekly survival of breeding adults (n = 271) from 2011 to 2024. Annual adult survival was 0.771 (95% CI = 0.733–0.804) and hatch-year survival was 0.394 (0.335–0.456). Fidelity to the study area was 0.737 (0.634–0.819) for adults and 0.261 (0.192–0.345) for hatch-years. Within-season apparent weekly survival was higher for Piping Plovers at lakeshore housing developments (0.946 [85% CI = 0.917–0.965]) than sand and gravel mines (0.909 [0.874–0.935]) and transition sites (0.881 [0.834–0.928]). Annual survival of adult and hatch-year birds were comparable to other studies and regions within the Northern Great Plains population, indicating no negative consequence of off-river nesting to survival. Considering that off-river habitats are important for the persistence of Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system, continued monitoring of survival could help managers evaluate recovery implications under uncertain future habitat availability in the region.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

Delineating ecologically-distinct groups for annual cycle management of a declining shorebird

1. Patterns of migratory connectivity are increasingly used to understand and manage threats throughout the annual cycle of migratory species. Strong migratory connectivity refers to when individuals from different populations remain spatially separated across the annual cycle, which may expose populations to unique sets of threats and conditions that cause differential population trends. However, the populations or groups used for species’ management are often defined a priori based on expert knowledge and/or management units, which may mask important population segregation and obscure differential population trends and their drivers. 2. We compared three approaches to defining management groups of a declining shorebird, the long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), for annual cycle management: by expert-opinion, according to management flyways, and with unsupervised clustering of satellite tracking data that maximizes the strength of migratory connectivity. 3. Despite the curlews having a continuous breeding range and a pattern of parallel migration, all three approaches identified groups with different population trends, movement behaviours and habitat selection across the annual cycle, suggesting these are meaningful ecological groups. The expert and clustering approaches resulted in similar group structure, strong estimates of migratory connectivity (measured as MC = 0.64 across seasons), movement behaviour and habitat selection; however, the expert approach identified an additional divide between the easternmost grouping, which revealed strongly negative population trends in the group occupying the Chihuahuan desert during the stationary nonbreeding season. In contrast, the flyway delineation resulted in weaker estimates of migratory connectivity, marginal differences in population trends and less between-group differences in movement behaviour and habitat selection. 4. Synthesis and applications . Using measurements of migratory connectivity in concert with expert opinion can define ecologically distinct groups for wildlife management that differ in the environmental conditions they experience across seasons of the annual cycle, which is a key component for understanding and reversing declines of migratory species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Effects of nest exclosure on nest and adult survival of piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in the lower Platte River System, Nebraska

Conservation of imperiled species often includes management strategies intended to improve specific vital rates. However, some management practices can have unforeseen consequences that negate the intended benefit. For example, nest exclosures are often used for ground-nesting avian species to reduce nest predation but may increase depredation of adults. Tradeoffs between nest survival and adult mortality of nest exclosures likely depend on local predator community dynamics. Therefore, investigations are most informative when assessed in specific settings. Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, nest at off-river sandpit sites, which provide an additional study system and habitat to assess the context-dependent effects of nest exclosures. The Tern and Plover Conservation Partnership monitors plovers at off-river sites by monitoring nests, installing nest exclosures, and banding and resighting. Effects of nest exclosures were tested on both nest survival, from 340 plover nests from 2008–2024, and weekly within-season apparent survival, from 71 breeding adults from 2011–2024. There was weak evidence that nest exclosures marginally improved nest survival but no evidence of an effect for within-season survival of breeding adults. Daily nest survival was slightly higher for exclosed nests (0.99, [85% CI = 0.98–0.99]) than unexclosed nests (0.98, [0.98–0.99]). Within-season apparent weekly survival for breeding plovers was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.83–0.93); cumulative survival over the breeding period was 0.51 (0.33–0.69). Nest exclosures may be used to increase nest survival at off-river sites with minimal threat to adult survival unless considerable concerns arise.

Nebraska↗
USGS2022

Tracking spatial regimes in animal communities: Implications for resilience-based management

Spatial regimes (the spatial extents of ecological states) exhibit strong spatiotemporal order as they expand or contract in response to retreating or encroaching adjacent spatial regimes (e.g., woody plant invasion of grasslands) and human management (e.g., fire treatments). New methods enable tracking spatial regime boundaries via vegetation landcover data, and this approach is being used for strategic management across biomes. A clear advancement would be incorporating animal community data to track spatial regime boundaries alongside vegetation data. In a 41,170-hectare grassland experiencing woody plant encroachment, we test the utility of using animal community data to track spatial regimes via two hypotheses. (H1) Spatial regime boundaries identified via independent vegetation and animal datasets will exhibit spatial synchrony; specifically, grassland:woodland bird community boundaries will synchronize with grass:woody vegetation boundaries. (H2) Negative feedbacks will stabilize spatial regimes identified via animal data; specifically, frequent fire treatments will stabilize grassland bird community boundaries. We used 26 years of bird community and vegetation data alongside 32 years of fire history data. We identified spatial regime boundaries with bird community data via a wombling approach. We identified spatial regime boundaries with vegetation data by calculating spatial covariance between remotely-sensed grass and woody plant cover per pixel. For fire history data, we calculated the cumulative number of fires per pixel. Setting bird boundary strength (wombling R 2 values) as the response variable, we tested our hypotheses with a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM). Both hypotheses were supported: animal boundaries synchronized with vegetation boundaries in space and time, and grassland bird communities stabilized as fire frequency increased (HGAM explained 38% of deviance). We can now track spatial regimes via animal community data pixel-by-pixel and year-by-year. Alongside vegetation boundary tracking, tracking animal community boundaries can inform the scale of management necessary to maintain animal communities endemic to desirable ecological states. Our approach will be especially useful for conserving animal communities requiring large-scale, unfragmented landscapes—like grasslands and steppes.

Kansas↗
USGS2021

Impacts of extreme environmental disturbances on piping plover survival are partially moderated by migratory connectivity

Effective conservation for listed migratory species requires an understanding of how drivers of population decline vary spatially and temporally, as well as knowledge of range-wide connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. Environmental conditions distant from breeding areas can have lasting effects on the demography of migratory species, yet these consequences are often the least understood. Our objectives were to 1) evaluate associations between survival and extreme environmental disturbances at nonbreeding areas, including hurricanes, harmful algal blooms, and oil spills, and 2) estimate migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas of midcontinental piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). We used capture and resighting data from 5067 individuals collected between 2002 and 2019 from breeding areas across the midcontinent, and nonbreeding areas throughout the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coasts of North America. We developed a hidden Markov multistate model to estimate seasonal survival and account for unobservable geographic locations. Hurricanes and harmful algal blooms were negatively associated with nonbreeding season survival, but we did not detect a similarly negative relationship with oil spills. Our results indicated that individuals from separate breeding areas mixed across nonbreeding areas with low migratory connectivity. Mixing among individuals in the nonbreeding season may provide a buffering effect against impacts of extreme events on any one breeding region. Our results suggest that understanding migratory connectivity and linking seasonal threats to population dynamics can better inform conservation strategies for migratory shorebirds.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2018

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗
USGS2017

Estimating the number of recreational anglers for a given waterbody

Knowing how many anglers use a given body of water is paramount for understanding components of a fishery related to angling pressure and harvest, yet no study has attempted to provide an estimate of the population size of anglers for a given waterbody. Here, we use information from creel surveys in a removal-sampling framework to estimate total numbers of anglers using six reservoirs in Nebraska, USA, and we examine the influence of the duration of sampling period on those estimates. Population estimates (N ± SE) of unique anglers were 2050 ± 45 for Branched Oak Lake, 1992 ± 29 for Calamus Reservoir, 929 ± 10 for Harlan County Reservoir, 985 ± 24 for Lake McConaughy, 1277 ± 24 for Merritt Reservoir, and 916 ± 18 for Pawnee Lake during April–October 2015. Shortening the sampling period by one or more months generally resulted in a greater effect on estimates of precision than on estimates of overall abundance. No relationship existed between abundances of unique anglers and angling pressures across reservoirs and sampling duration, indicative of a decoupling of angler abundance and angling pressure. The approach outlined herein has potential to provide defendable answers to “how many are there?”, questions we ask when subjects cannot be marked, which should provide new insights about angler populations and subpopulations.

Nebraska↗
USGS2015

Factors affecting female space use in ten populations of prairie chickens

Conservation of wildlife depends on an understanding of the interactions between animal movements and key landscape factors. Habitat requirements of wide-ranging species often vary spatially, but quantitative assessment of variation among replicated studies at multiple sites is rare. We investigated patterns of space use for 10 populations of two closely related species of prairie grouse: Greater Prairie-Chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido ) and Lesser Prairie-Chickens ( T. pallidicinctus ). Prairie chickens require large, intact tracts of native grasslands, and are umbrella species for conservation of prairie ecosystems in North America. We used resource utilization functions to investigate space use by female prairie chickens during the 6-month breeding season from March through August in relation to lek sites, habitat conditions, and anthropogenic development. Our analysis included data from 382 radio-marked individuals across a major portion of the extant range. Our project is a unique opportunity to study comparative space use of prairie chickens, and we employed standardized methods that facilitated direct comparisons across an ecological gradient of study sites. Median home range size of females varied ~10-fold across 10 sites (3.6–36.7 km 2 ), and home ranges tended to be larger at sites with higher annual precipitation. Proximity to lek sites was a strong and consistent predictor of space use for female prairie chickens at all 10 sites. The relative importance of other predictors of space use varied among sites, indicating that generalized habitat management guidelines may not be appropriate for these two species. Prairie chickens actively selected for prairie habitats, even at sites where ~90% of the land cover within the study area was prairie. A majority of the females monitored in our study (>95%) had activity centers within 5 km of leks, suggesting that conservation efforts can be effectively concentrated near active lek sites. Our data on female space use suggest that lek surveys of male prairie chickens can indirectly assess habitat suitability for females during the breeding season. Lek monitoring and surveys for new leks provide information on population trends, but can also guide management actions aimed at improving nesting and brood-rearing habitats.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2015

The effects of harvest regulations on behaviors of duck hunters

Uncertainty exists as to how duck harvest regulations influence waterfowl hunter behavior. We used the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Parts Collection Survey to examine how harvest regulations affected behaviors of Central Flyway duck hunters. We stratified hunters into ranked groups based on seasonal harvest and identified three periods (1975–1984, 1988–1993, 2002–2011) that represented different harvest regulations (moderate, restrictive, and liberal, respectively; season length and daily bag limits smallest in restrictive seasons and largest in liberal seasons). We examined variability of seven measures of duck hunter behaviors across the periods: days harvesting ducks, daily harvest, hunter mobility, mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) selectivity, gender selectivity, daily female mallard harvest, and timing of harvest. Hunters reported harvesting ducks on more days, at a higher efficiency, and in slightly more counties during liberal seasons relative to restrictive and moderate seasons. We provide evidence to suggest that future regulation change will affect hunter behaviors.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou↗
USGS2015

Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N -mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2014

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: Does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.

Nebraska↗
USGS2013

Choosing a DIVA: a comparison of emerging digital imagery vegetation analysis techniques

Question: What is the precision of five methods of measuring vegetation structure using ground-based digital imagery and processing techniques? Location: Lincoln, Nebraska, USA Methods: Vertical herbaceous cover was recorded using digital imagery techniques at two distinct locations in a mixed-grass prairie. The precision of five ground-based digital imagery vegetation analysis (DIVA) methods for measuring vegetation structure was tested using a split-split plot analysis of covariance. Variability within each DIVA technique was estimated using coefficient of variation of mean percentage cover. Results: Vertical herbaceous cover estimates differed among DIVA techniques. Additionally, environmental conditions affected the vertical vegetation obstruction estimates for certain digital imagery methods, while other techniques were more adept at handling various conditions. Overall, percentage vegetation cover values differed among techniques, but the precision of four of the five techniques was consistently high. Conclusions: DIVA procedures are sufficient for measuring various heights and densities of standing herbaceous cover. Moreover, digital imagery techniques can reduce measurement error associated with multiple observers' standing herbaceous cover estimates, allowing greater opportunity to detect patterns associated with vegetation structure.

Nebraska↗
USGS2005

Use of radio-telemetry to reduce bias in nest searching

We used traditional searching, as well as radio-telemetry, to find 125 Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ) nests during 1994–1996 at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in Georgia, USA. We compared daily nest survival rates for 66 nests of radio-marked birds with 59 nests of birds found through systematic searching. By using radio-telemetry, we found Wood Thrush nests in higher elevation pine habitats, in addition to the more usual hardwood forests with moist soils. We found nests of radio-marked birds farther from streams than nests found by systematic searching. Thirty-two percent of radio-marked birds' nests were found at the tops of slopes, compared to 15% of the nests found by traditional searching. In addition, radio-marked birds generally moved up-slope for re-nesting attempts. Although the distribution of nests found with telemetry and searching varied, daily nest survival did not vary between the two groups. Radio-telemetry provided new information about Wood Thrush nesting habitats. We believe radio-telemetry can be a valuable addition to traditional searching techniques; it has the potential to provide a sample of nests free from a priori habitat biases.

Georgia↗
USGS2000

Breeding season demography and movements of Eastern Towhees at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina

The Eastern Towhee ( Pipilo erythrophthalmus ) has undergone population declines across much of its range, especially in New England. Despite being a widespread and, at one time, a common species, relatively little is known about its natural history, ecology, or demographics. We conducted baseline research on Eastern Towhees at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, in 1995 and 1996 to estimate breeding season survival rates, nest success rates, breeding densities, and daily movements. We also were interested in whether towhees had differences in survival and movement rates between young and mature managed pine stands. We found that survival rates during the breeding season of radio-marked towhees did not vary by sex or stand type. Daily nest success rates were very low [0.629 ± 0.088 (SE)] as a result of high predation levels. Abundance estimates adjusted for sampling effort differed between years. In 1995, the abundance estimate was significantly lower in mature stands (7.1 ± 0.47) than in young stands (9.6 ± 0.60) while in 1996, there was no different between mature stands (26.2 ± 5.67) and young stands (16.5 ± 3.39). Average daily movements by radio-marked towhees did not vary by sex or stand type. Movements among adjacent stands were common, and sometimes great distances.

South Carolina↗