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L.M. Jones

Publications and source records attributed to L.M. Jones.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Aftershocks: Are they earthquakes or afterthoughts?

We tend to view aftershocks as after-thoughts in their scientific as well as societal importance. The media often ask seismologists: “Was it just an aftershock?” with the “just” implying that aftershocks present little cause for concern. Seismologists themselves tend to dismiss the importance of events that follow a large mainshock. Even appreciable aftershocks typically generate only a fraction of the scientific interest and investigation that the mainshock does. However, consideration of recent earthquake sequences suggests that aftershocks can be even more damaging than mainshocks in some cases. That is, although the aftershocks are still, by definition, smaller events, they could be even more damaging by virtue of proximity to population centers or other circumstances.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2005

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

Nature↗
USGS2003

The 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska: A large magnitude, slip-partitioned event

The MW (moment magnitude) 7.9 Denali fault earthquake on 3 November 2002 was associated with 340 kilometers of surface rupture and was the largest strike-slip earthquake in North America in almost 150 years. It illuminates earthquake mechanics and hazards of large strike-slip faults. It began with thrusting on the previously unrecognized Susitna Glacier fault, continued with right-slip on the Denali fault, then took a right step and continued with right-slip on the Totschunda fault. There is good correlation between geologically observed and geophysically inferred moment release. The earthquake produced unusually strong distal effects in the rupture propagation direction, including triggered seismicity.

Science↗
USGS2003

When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

For a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

California↗
USGS1997

The seismic cycle in southern California: Precursor or response?

The seismicity rate (M ≥ 3.0) in southern California shows two cycles with periods of high activity (90 events/year), from 1945–1952 and 1969–1992, and lower activity (60–70 events /year) from 1952–1969 and 1992-present. Abrupt drops in the seismicity rate occur after the 1952 Kern County (M7.5) and the 1992 Landers (M7.3) earthquakes. The sudden increase in 1969 does not coincide with any major event but approximates the time needed to reaccumulate the seismic moment released in the 1952 earthquake. This temporal correlation with the preceding earthquake suggests that the seismic cycle (lower seismicity after a major earthquake and higher seismicity before the next major earthquake) should be interpreted as a response to the first earthquake rather than a precursor to the second. Southern California is now at a rate of seismicity as low as it experienced in the 1950s and 1960s.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1996

Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science

Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1990

The 3 December 1988 Pasadena, California earthquake: Evidence for strike-slip motion on the Raymond Fault

The Pasadena earthquake (ML = 4.9) occurred on 3 December 1988, at a depth of 16 km. The hypocenters of the earthquake and its aftershocks define a east-northeast striking, steeply northwest-dipping surface that projects up to the active surficial trace of the Raymond fault. One of the nodal planes of the focal mechanism of the earthquake parallels the Raymond fault with left-lateral strike-slip movement on that plane, and is consistent with geomorphic and paleoseismic evidence that the Raymond fault is dominantly a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The existence of a component of sinistral slip along the Raymond fault had been suspected prior to the earthquake, but the northward dip of the fault and the prominent scarp along the western portion of its trace had led most workers to conclude that slip along the fault was dominantly reverse.

California↗